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2020 US Election (Part Two)

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Lexicus, Mar 11, 2020.

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  1. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I'll sit with you

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    Point of order... the Regan v. Mondale massacre was slightly worse, although McGovern's loss certainly was the worst up to that point in history when it occurred.



    I agree, I'm thinking she waits on him. However, if he's really going to stay on this "I'm in it until the end" kick, then she's in for a ton of discomfort over the coming months.
     
  2. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    The sham, actually, is the idea that "Bernie's policies" are somehow his personal property and he's the only Democrat ever who will actually try to get them done. For the most part Warren has been promoting "Bernie's policies" in the senate far more effectively than he ever has, and pretty much every democrat candidate is more or less in favor of them. The only thing unique about Sanders is that he panders to the instant gratification crowd with his false claim that if only he could somehow get elected he would magically just make it all happen.

    I intentionally left out "to date at that time" because it sounds dorky and it didn't really offset the point, but yes, this is true.
     
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  3. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    Holy ****, you yourself were arguing prior to super Tuesday that primary wins do not indicate electability in the general. Was that only when Bernie was looking like the top of the pack?

    Cardgame's post showing that while Democrats love Biden independents obviously are on Sanders' side.

    Biden is definitely getting the any blue will do vote but where independents are going indicates where others are going. Bernie gets that "any blue will do vote" and if hes winning with independents he's winning those too. They're the ones not likely to turn out for either candidate if its yet another "one candidate sucks slightly less" election.
     
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  4. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    When the Democratic elite is the issue... what does it take to conquer the Dem elite ?

    (too late now ofc... but for the coming years)
     
  5. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    Well, if we look back we see that what I was saying was that Sanders win in Nevada didn't indicate much of anything and that he was likely to get smashed into oblivion long before the convention so the whole "presumptive nominee" conversation was stupid. Hey, guess what...

    Meanwhile, whether the primary process is "the best way" to pick a nominee or not is a question that only merits discussion if Cardgame (or you) has an alternative to propose. Until then it is best by default since it's all we have.
     
  6. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I'll sit with you

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    "Eager"? For my part, I voted for Bernie, but the reality is he got smashed... and then smashed again this week... so I would characterize my realization that Biden is probably the nominee as, "reluctant" maybe, but "eager?" No.

    But more importantly... again... if you are sure that Biden is a "losing candidate" and Bernie is the only one who can beat Trump, then to your mind... who's responsibility is it to get Bernie nominated?... and therefore, who's fault is it if he does not get nominated?
    This is my thing too... who are folks saying is to blame if Bernie does not get nominated? The dumb, stupid people who didn't vote for him? The dumb, stupid people who didn't stay with him until the bitter end, including refusing to vote for Biden?

    OK... but doesn't that mean that the people who refused to vote for Biden are to blame for Biden losing? How can you blame Biden voters for Bernie's losses but then say Bernie-or-busters aren't to blame for Biden's loss?

    My view is Bernie's losses are Bernie's fault, and possibly, by extension, the fault of his "first choice" supporters. Similarly, Biden's loss would be Biden's fault, and the fault of his "first choice" supporters.
     
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  7. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    The big difference between then and now is that, easy as it is to forget, in 1972 Nixon was actually a popular incumbent in a very strong position. By contrast Trump is very unpopular.

    While I agree that Sanders isn't the only Democrat pushing a left agenda, and that lot of Sanders supporters don't seem to be thinking this through beyond "elect sanders->pass all desired policies", I do disagree that all the Democratic candidates support Bernie's policies (Biden in particular has been pretty clear that he doesn't support, really, any of them). The idea that Warren has been pushing Bernie's policies in the Senate, let alone more effectively than Sanders, is just straight-up untrue.

    Sanders has actually been quite clear that it will require organization outside of electoral politics to get his agenda enacted. Far from representing "instant gratification" or magical thinking this is actually a very realistic take. If Biden should win the Presidency, the majorities of Democratic voters who support Sanders' agenda are going to find out how correct Sanders is about that, because we all know Biden's "nothing will fundamentally change" administration is not going to fight for these policies without massive public pressure to do so.
     
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  8. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    Losses aren't anyone's fault. A loss just means that the candidate didn't reflect the will of enough people. Until we arrive at genuine minority rule (and yes the GOP is pushing hard towards that) there is no "strategic play" that can overcome a minority position. Sanders represents a minority of a minority. That's not a fault, but it is a fact.
     
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  9. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    Eh no, dont try to weasel out now. The argument was over electability and I pointed out how Bernie did in 2016 specifically in swing states that won Trump the election. That conversation was even before primaries had started. You told me that who turns out in primaries is not indicative of who'd turn out in the general. You're specifically contradicting your own previous position now.
     
  10. EgonSpengler

    EgonSpengler Deity

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    In 2016, I got the impression that Sanders would've been a better choice for the Dems than Clinton because there were voters who were looking for a 'change candidate' and were less concerned with Dem-v-Repub, or right-v-left, or liberal-v-conservative. I distinctly remember overhearing a guy in line at the local pizza place, during the 2015 primaries, that a "[Jeb] Bush vs [Hillary] Clinton" general election was his nightmare scenario. That is, he was sick of the same-old, same-old - from both parties. I wondered later whether the guy had voted for Trump; I sort of suspect that he did. So there's at least a plausible theory that Sanders would've taken votes from Trump. However, I can't tell yet whether the same could be true for 2020. That chart above certainly seems to suggest it might be, though.
     
  11. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    Okay, so now instead of "before super Tuesday" you're talking about before the primaries even started. Yeah, there's no doubt that I said that. That's also rock solid truth. "people who vote in Democratic primaries" are without a doubt a subset of people who vote in the general election. I'm not sure where or how you were taking a position opposing that.
     
  12. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    Yes and your position was that the subset was not a good way to judge the general. Now you're trying to flip that. Were you right then? Was I right then? Are we right now? Are you right now? You simply can't be right in both cases.

    We keep pointing out that in the general there is a huge group of voters that would vote for a JC Penny's mannikin if it had a D next to its name. What Cardgame's post shows is that independents who dont do that are in Bernie's coalition.
     
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  13. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    The primary vote in a state is not a really great indicator for how the non-primary voting general election voters are going to vote. In most cases just participating in the primary voting is a pretty good indicator of how the primary voters will vote in the general. That is, it is a safe bet that someone who turned out for the Republican primary to cast a vote for Trump is almost a lock to turn out in the general and vote for Trump. It is a less safe bet that someone who turned out to vote in the Democrat primary will turn out to vote for the Democrat whoever that turns out to be. But none of that relates to the people who do not vote in the primary at all. The only thing that we do know about them is that some significant number of them are going to turn out for the general.

    But all that aside, let's get back to this concept that since you and Cardgame just know that Sanders would beat Trump and no one else possibly can, what changes to the nominating process can you suggest that would produce the outcome you want? I've said, repeatedly, that I'm just a strategist with strong lean towards the Democrats. I want a candidate at the top of the ballot who will win, and who will have positive effect down ballot. If you are right that Sanders is not only that guy but he is the only chance at having that guy, how do we get that guy? No one, and I mean no one, is gonna go with "scrap the primaries, just ask Cardgame and Socrates99 who should be the nominee." No one is gonna go with "scrap the primaries, just ask the Senator from Vermont who hates the Democratic party who the nominee should be." So if the only answer is Sanders how should we go about asking the question so that we get there?
     
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  14. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    You know neither of us think we're that important.

    For starters id say if everyone who says "I'm for his policies" would stop actively opposing him thered be a pretty seismic shift. 70% of Democrats support M4ALL. The majority cited healthcare as a major concern and Bernie is viewed as the most trustworthy on that issue. For some reason the guy winning the primary opposes that policy because...he has a nice smile and is Obama adjacent? Exit polling even shows that many Biden voters support universal healthcare.

    I'd feel a lot better running with a good counter to MAGA. America is Already Great failed. Do we really think "Nothing will fundamentally change" is where the energy is at?
     
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  15. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    QFT
     
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  16. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

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    You don't need a counter to MAGA. You need a counter to Trump. Biden has a more likable personality than does Trump.

    It may be sad that that's how we elect a president. But that's how we elect a president.

    People didn't vote for Trump's policies. They voted for Trump.
     
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  17. cardgame

    cardgame Obsessively Opposed to the Typical

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    'For some reason' has less to do with the voters than Tim thinks.



    In every single race so far, Bernie's votes are divergent from exit polls by more than twice the predicted error. If this happened in Bolivia or Columbia we'd already be calling it election rigging, but since it's domestic everything is fine.
     
  18. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    You seem to be ignoring something that I think is a plain fact. They are not his policies.

    Okay, yes, I know that neither of you think you are that important. Yes, that was an example intended to be absurdist. But the problem is that it is still the only counter offer on the table. If not primaries, then what?

    For the record, I personally favor medicare being available to anyone who wants it, with people who want "superior" insurance allowed to buy it if companies want to offer it. I think that in fairly short order no such companies would exist, but that's just how markets work. I can't buy boiler powered automobiles or any number of other obsolete items either. M4A is distinctly not what the general public identifies as "universal healthcare," which is generally seen as a synonym of "nationalized medicine" where doctors are state employees and the hospital becomes a variant on the DMV. Getting that distinct for the large number of people who are confused about it is a critical part of making any progress on healthcare reform, and Sanders seems singularly incapable of getting that distinction across. Perhaps because he is more interested in "if you want health care reform, vote for me and we'll talk about what you want specifically sometime later, like after I'm elected." More people "trust him on healthcare" because he talks a lot about doing something and lets them assume that whatever he is talking about coincides with whatever they happen to want.
     
  19. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

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    Edit to above. You do need a counter to "MAGA." That is, you do need your own slogan of some sort: the bumper-sticker version of your campaign.

    And you do need policies.

    But at the end of the day "which candidate you'd rather have a beer with" is what is likely to win the day.
     
  20. Ajidica

    Ajidica High Quality Person

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    On mobile, sorry for any incoherent sentences.

    On the independents for Sanders, do the exit polls say what type of independent they are and whether they regularly vote democrat? Like, are they the mythical “moderate voter” or are they a vaguely lefty voter but doesn’t want to be considered part of the Democratic Party? Someone like rah comes to mind who despite identifying as an independent moderate has made it clear he will vote for the dem presidential candidate. Personally I know several ‘independents’ who vote basically solid blue because the GOP has a problem nominating nutters and on the local level are increasingly losing the ‘good government’ vote to the Dems.

    Conversely, we all know Berzerker and Jay say they are independents, and trot out a flirtation with voting for Sanders, but do we really believe that they actually would vote Sanders?

    Personally, I don’t know anyone who would vote Democrat only if Sanders is on the ticket, but do know a fair number who otherwise would vote Democrat but would not if Sanders was on the ticket.
     
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