2020 US Election (Part Two)

[cardgame]

a fair number who otherwise would vote Democrat but would not if Sanders was on the ticket.

Do you know if you can rely on those people? There were PLENTY of Never-Trumpers who voted for him anyway.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

In every single race so far, Bernie's votes are divergent from exit polls by more than twice the predicted error. If this happened in Bolivia or Columbia we'd already be calling it election rigging, but since it's domestic everything is fine.

Not suggesting that "Nichole at Buzzfeed" can't be trusted, but since she referenced Michigan I went and checked Michigan, and NO, there is not any significant divergence between exit polling and returns. I know that Big Donny Dump just loves to scream about voter fraud, but please don't encourage people to believe his bald faced lies.

 

[Socrates99]

You don't need a counter to MAGA. You need a counter to Trump. Biden has a more likable personality than does Trump.

It may be sad that that's how we elect a president. But that's how we elect a president.

People didn't vote for Trump's policies. They voted for Trump.

Nope. That's still buying into the idea that all of Trump's voters are racists who are slaves to the cult of personality. Trump constantly throws red meat to the Republican base. The people that held their nose and voted for him because of Scalia's empty seat like him more now that they know he'll deliver. Acknowledging Jerusalem as Israel's capital, banning trans people from the military, the tax cuts, the trade war, his draconian immigration policies, appointing pro life judges, etc. they like that. That's policy. They're coming back out for him and holding their nose a little less.

It's the two time Obama voter that flipped to Trump that needs to be courted back. They liked Obama's hope and change message. They also liked Trump's tough trade policies and anti-offshoring stance. Americans aren't as dumb as you think. Imagining a winning smile is going to win them back is a longshot. Unfortunately I worry they are too dumb to fact check Dump.

Now imagine Biden up there, brain rot and all, trying to defend "shoring up the ACA" and....not 100% sure what else. He'll preach restoring dignity to the office while trying to pretend there was nothing untoward going on with his son. Trump will trot out the old plaigerism scandal, the crime bill, his support for the Iraq war, NAFTA and TPP. Republicans don't need to win over Democrats. They just need to suppress the leftwing vote to win.

Nothing will fundamentally change isnt red meat, it's not even a cold cut. Again, the only thing we're banking on is Trump's odious personality.

Maybe I'm wrong. I hope so anyway.

 

[Birdjaguar]

.... There were PLENTY of Never-Trumpers who voted for him anyway.

Do you have a source for that? What you said implies that there were lots of never Trumpers in 2016 and that they voted for him.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I think the nevertrumper movement mostly exists in Trump's head. There are certainly prominent never-trump talking heads but I don't think they reflected their audience. And most of them lost their jobs, at least in part because they don't reflect their audience.

 

[Lexicus]

The Never Trump movement consists of about 100 people, of whom about 1/3 seem to be employed by David Frum at the Atlantic.

Do you have a source for that? What you said implies that there were lots of never Trumpers in 2016 and that they voted for him.

Dude, are you joking? There were like dozens of prominent Republicans who said Trump was dangerous, that he was a moron, that he could never be allowed to become President...they virtually all fell in to support him.

 

[Birdjaguar]

The Never Trump movement consists of about 100 people, of whom about 1/3 seem to be employed by David Frum at the Atlantic.

Dude, are you joking? There were like dozens of prominent Republicans who said Trump was dangerous, that he was a moron, that he could never be allowed to become President...they virtually all fell in to support him.

A few hundred prominent republicans doesn't constitute much. @cardgame seemed to imply that there was a significant voting block that voted for him even though they did not want him to be president. That is what I was inquiring about.

 

[Lexicus]

A few hundred prominent republicans doesn't constitute much. @cardgame seemed to imply that there was a significant voting block that voted for him even though they did not want him to be president. That is what I was inquiring about.

What I thought he was talking about is people who claimed they did not want him to be President and ended up voting for him anyway. His electoral showing in 2016 showed that the Republican coalition turned out and voted for him, regardless of what they were saying about how awful he was or how much they hated him.

 

[adcarrymaokai]

Amazing how the media was drumming the Russia/impeachment drum for 4 years, and nobody cared, but now the little virus boiiii from China is literally going to end this man's whole career. I honestly think Trump will lose because of the coronavirus. His response has been abysmal, and, as importantly, he now has to cancel rallies and other organizing events, which is going to hurt his hype. Biden continues to fail even high school gyms, so he is much less affected by the ban on gatherings, plus the new Dem debate format might benefit him more, now that he can be sitting down and taking questions slowly.

Also, here is a video of Biden attacking a factory worker yesterday, talking about "AR-14" and calling him "a horse's a*s". Because attacking voters always works.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Approximately 40% of the population is going to vote Republican if they vote. Doesn't matter if the candidate is GWBush, Big Donny Dump, Ronald Reagan, or David Duke. And that 40% is fairly reliable about turning out. About 45% of the population is going to vote Democrat if they vote, but that's a bigger if. The other fifteen percent genuinely could go either way, but the common mistake is thinking they will vote for whoever they like best at the time, when really if they vote (which is unlikely in the first place) they will vote for whoever they hate and/or fear the least at time.

 

[Sommerswerd]

What I thought he was talking about is people who claimed they did not want him to be President and ended up voting for him anyway. His electoral showing in 2016 showed that the Republican coalition turned out and voted for him, regardless of what they were saying about how awful he was or how much they hated him.

Trump got about 900 thousand more votes than baby Bush in 2004, 3 million more than McCain in 2008, and 2 million more than Romney in 2012. So I'm guessing that the "Never-Trump" contingent was a very vocal, but very minor part of the Republican electorate. Seems more likely that Republican voters just went ahead and voted Republican as usual.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Also, here is a video of Biden attacking a factory worker yesterday, talking about "AR-14" and calling him "a horse's a*s". Because attacking voters always works.

Guess what...a gigantic majority thinks gun control needs to be reformed. Calling out the NRA is a really good idea. Calling out the occasional gun nut (whether they really are one or not) probably is too.

 

[Lexicus]

Trump got about 900 thousand more votes than baby Bush in 2004, 3 million more than McCain in 2008, and 2 million more than Romney in 2012. So I'm guessing that the "Never-Trump" contingent was a very vocal, but very minor part of the Republican electorate. Seems more likely that Republican voters just went ahead and voted Republican as usual.

This is my point. That Republican voters went ahead and voted Republican, regardless of whatever noises they were making about Trump being unfit for office.

 

[Zardnaar]

Approximately 40% of the population is going to vote Republican if they vote. Doesn't matter if the candidate is GWBush, Big Donny Dump, Ronald Reagan, or David Duke. And that 40% is fairly reliable about turning out. About 45% of the population is going to vote Democrat if they vote, but that's a bigger if. The other fifteen percent genuinely could go either way, but the common mistake is thinking they will vote for whoever they like best at the time, when really if they vote (which is unlikely in the first place) they will vote for whoever they hate and/or fear the least at time.

Of that 15% a few probably lean Democrat or Republican. I read an article that the moderates are less than 5% now.

But the election can turn on less than 1%. 2016 results 40000 people change their minds bye bye Trump.

And turnout is likely to be higher which is probably bad for Trump.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Trump got about 900 thousand more votes than baby Bush in 2004, 3 million more than McCain in 2008, and 2 million more than Romney in 2012. So I'm guessing that the "Never-Trump" contingent was a very vocal, but very minor part of the Republican electorate. Seems more likely that Republican voters just went ahead and voted Republican as usual.

That was that 15% turning out because they (IMO unjustifiably) really hated and feared Hillary Clinton. Now they have a snootful of Trumpian reality and unless the Democrats work really hard at making themselves hated and feared they get a lot of those votes.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Approximately 40% of the population is going to vote Republican if they vote. Doesn't matter if the candidate is GWBush, Big Donny Dump, Ronald Reagan, or David Duke. And that 40% is fairly reliable about turning out. About 45% of the population is going to vote Democrat if they vote, but that's a bigger if. The other fifteen percent genuinely could go either way, but the common mistake is thinking they will vote for whoever they like best at the time, when really if they vote (which is unlikely in the first place) they will vote for whoever they hate and/or fear the least at time.

I'll go ahead and be dorky and point out that 40% of the voting-eligible population is not going to vote regardless. So starting from the available 60% tops that actually votes, I'd say 25- 28% is voting Republican regardless and 20-25% is voting Democrat Regardless, leaving , as you say, about 15% tops that could go either way. But it might be more like 7%, if you take into account the people who self describe as "independent" but are really just resistant to being labeled.

The remaining 40% are just not voting period.

 

[Lexicus]

That was that 15% turning out because they (IMO unjustifiably) really hated and feared Hillary Clinton. Now they have a snootful of Trumpian reality

If they hated Hillary Clinton for basically no reason, why on Earth do you think they are going to acknowledge "Trumpian reality"?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I'll go ahead and be dorky and point out that 40% of the voting-eligible population is not going to vote regardless. So starting from the available 60% tops that actually votes, I'd say 25% is voting Republican regardless and 20% is voting Democrat Regardless, leaving , as you say, about 15% that could go either way. The remaining 40% are just not voting period.

I discarded the "not voting period, ever" off the top.

If they hated Hillary Clinton for basically no reason, why on Earth do you think they are going to acknowledge "Trumpian reality"?

Because they absolutely love to hate, and Trump hasn't given them even a shred of a reason not to hate him.

 

[adcarrymaokai]

Trump talks about Ivanka being hot, but Biden kisses his adult granddaughter on the lips. Ah well, we are so doomed.

 

[Socrates99]

I knew some actual "never Trump" voters that caved once it hit the general. They cited Scalia's seat as their reason to fall in line. Expect RBG's health to be a big deal on Fox once we hit the general.

There are a lot of Republicans that still buy into the family values stuff. They dont like who Trump is. A lot of these people are in my family on my Facebook feed.