2020 US Election (Part Two)

[IglooDame]

While acknowledging the historical precedents there, I already pointed out why I don't think the current contest follows that historical precedent. It's also why I keep citing the Dallas Cowboys as an example. The Cowboys carry the largest amount of mindless "ride or die" action of any USian sports team. That makes the line on Cowboys games the least reliable predictors of game outcomes of all the lines on all the NFL's games. I think this election has a gigantic "ride or die" segment in the action, requiring a large shift in the line to force the even split in the total action and making the line a less reliable than normal predictor of the outcome.

So if I consistently bet against the Cowboys, I could make some money over the long term?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

So if I consistently bet against the Cowboys, I could make some money over the long term?

That is part of the observed outcome. It does however feed back against the line, because it creates a segment of "ride or die" action against the Cowboys that also has to be taken into account. Bookmakers very jealously guard the information about how much of the action they believe is informed vs how much is heart bet.

And whether you could make enough to cover the vig is a dubious proposition.

 

[Samson]

That is part of the observed outcome.

Is it really? Do you have a link?

If true it should be provable fairly easily with a dataset like this. I cannot find it demonstrated online, but you should be able to retire on something like that. I am interested.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Is it really? Do you have a link?

If true it should be provable fairly easily with a dataset like this. I cannot find it demonstrated online, but you should be able to retire on something like that. I am interested.

The only time I have ever seen a Vegas sports book line get so consistently pushed that a smart bettor could beat the vig and retire was with the Oakland Raiders in the seventies, and very few people will ever be convinced that those games weren't fixed. One season the Raiders went something like 12-2 and only beat the spread once.

However, if you can find lower level (illegal) bookies you may have a good chance. I had a friend in Dallas who consistently made money betting against the Cowboys, because his local bookie consistently shifted the spread three or four points beyond the Vegas lines and still had to lay off action because the ride or die homers could not be deterred or balanced out. I'm sure that on-line betting has made that really difficult now, unfortunately.

 

[Zkribbler]

Bernie has dropped out.

Progressive groups promise to spend $100M backing Biden, but urge to maximize this support by adapting Bernie-like positions, arguing progressive are not interested in a return to pre-Trump days.

The assembled groups ― some of which, like Justice Democrats, are run by younger adults, but do not explicitly target or mobilize young people ― want Biden to sign on to “Medicare for All,” empower the federal government to manufacture generic drugs, back tuition-free public college, get behind a wealth tax, fight to enact a $10 trillion green infrastructure bill capable of making the country’s energy use 100% renewable by 2030, endorse rolling back decades of tougher immigration enforcement, work to halve the country’s incarcerated population, set a goal of halving all national deaths by gun violence, require congressional authorization for any war, as well support the abolition of the filibuster and the expansion of the Supreme Court.

 

[Berzerker]

Biden's the lesser evil if we ignore the past 5 decades

Ugh, I'm not going to have time today to delve as deeply into this as I had originally hoped, sorry.

Is your measure based on strictly the number of lives lost, refugees created, suffering etc overseen by a president? Or are there extenuating circumstances? For example, if we are just looking at simply the number of lives lost and suffering caused, Lincoln would undoubtedly be a pretty bad president, as would FDR, Truman, etc. Are these lives lost acceptable when defending against insurrection or attack? I guess I'm just trying to understand the parameters of your pacifism, and under which circumstances you see lives lost as perhaps...well, acceptable is not the right word because when should we ever be ok with it...but rather unavoidably necessary, perhaps?

Some wars are necessary (eg self defense), some are 'elective'. Vietnam, Iraq, Syria and Libya fall into the latter category.

I've been the victim of sexual abuse, so I'm going to have to really think about it Tim, I'm sure you can see where my problem lies.

Two accused rapists are running, so let me really think about it. One problem is you gotta be a victim to have that problem.

 

[Gori the Grey]

From Zkribbler's post

The assembled groups ― some of which, like Justice Democrats, are run by younger adults, but do not explicitly target or mobilize young people ― want Biden to sign on to “Medicare for All,” empower the federal government to manufacture generic drugs, back tuition-free public college, get behind a wealth tax, fight to enact a $10 trillion green infrastructure bill capable of making the country’s energy use 100% renewable by 2030, endorse rolling back decades of tougher immigration enforcement, work to halve the country’s incarcerated population, set a goal of halving all national deaths by gun violence, require congressional authorization for any war, as well support the abolition of the filibuster and the expansion of the Supreme Court.

i.e. to be Bernie (and Warren thrown in for good measure) (and then plus some other stuff that I don't know anyone was running on)

 

[Imaus]

Bernie has dropped out.

Progressive groups promise to spend $100M backing Biden, but urge to maximize this support by adapting Bernie-like positions, arguing progressive are not interested in a return to pre-Trump days.

From Zkribbler's post



i.e. to be Bernie (and Warren thrown in for good measure) (and then plus some other stuff that I don't know anyone was running on)

A forlorn hope that won't happen, but I will concede that this is Biden's race to lose. Biden is already changing his tune so one or two prog things will happen but his administration will be too busy just fixing what Trump broke - which would had been the same thing a Bernie admin would had been doing.

Sure a few Berners will switch/not vote, but probably not in any meaningful capacity. I mean - they were the ones who had FOUR YEARS TO PREPARE and came up, oh, what, a few million short? So far? And the general is a few months for now - plenty of time for them to cool off. I myself can compartemtnalize both my emotional 'BERNIE YES BERN BERN BENR' side with this practical, cool, 'wow four more years of Trump would fudging suck eh?'

Honestly as a Social Democrat my focus is not on Biden but Bernie and his campaign. Not investing in SC? The low turnout, the lack of discipline within the campaign, finance transparency concerns of all things - this should had been a damn breeze but alas. Lessons now, for the future, in twenty, forty years. Biden wins - the Dems will discard the prog left as useful suckers. Biden loses - Dems will discard the prog left as a liability.

 

[Takhisis]

The problem is that most Republicans (and, it should be said, a good number of Democrats) really don't believe in democracy at all. They are perfectly fine with making voting as difficult as possible. And they explicitly reject the idea of a political system organized along the lines of one person, one vote.

Actually they do believe in ‘one man, one vote’. They just have different ideas on who the man in question is. If you look at their statements and hear their public speeches they are publicly arguing against ‘those people’, ‘they’, etc. which means they clearly believe in different classes or castes of humanity.

Americans care very deeply when Americans are killed by non-Americans. Not so much when the killing is done by Americans.

Ah, so that's why they forgave Nixon and Kissinger for sabotaging LBJ's Viet Nam peace talks and Reagan (with Kissinger again) for sabotaging Carter's negotiation with the Iranians over the hostages.

 

[Fippy]

Not sure why i reply again, but i had a boyfriend who was rather professional on betting.
He always said that professional books like Pinnacle will stand firm on their odds, and only move on real bets aka from players they consider very knowledgeable.
If you think that a book of that size will balance odds just cos lots of peoples bet on 1 side, you are showing that you still have much to learn in that regard.
They will happily take almost infinite bets on 1 side without blinking if their better players (and their staff) suggest their odds are accurate.
They will not give beatable odds to Pros by default.

Try again, but please do some research instead of throwing around your wisdom first.

 

[Takhisis]

Fippy, I assume you are quoting Tim?

 

[Takhisis]

Just because Bernie Sanders has suspended his campaign does not mean that he's going to hide in a bunker for the rest of his life. He's published this in the Grauniad:

We cannot rely on Trump. Congress must lead the way in this unprecedented crisis
by Bernie Sanders

The American people deserve and require leadership from Washington amid this horrific pandemic and economic meltdown

In this unprecedented moment in American history, we need an unprecedented legislative response. President Trump is incapable of providing leadership, and instead continues to mislead the public and act out of political self-interest. So it is Congress that must lead, and it must do so now.

With anxiety growing, everyone in our country needs to know that, in the midst of this horrific pandemic and economic meltdown, their government is doing everything possible to keep them healthy and financially secure.

In other words, we need to build upon and expand the recent stimulus package with new and bolder emergency legislation which must be passed as soon as possible. Here are a few core principles that must be included in that legislation.

First, Congress must explicitly authorize that the Defense Production Act is fully utilized to demand that the private sector start delivering the equipment and products that our medical personnel desperately need in order to treat their patients. We cannot rely on Trump to do it.

Recent reporting has revealed that the Trump administration did not start ordering crucial equipment like masks until March. It is beyond comprehension that, in the wealthiest nation on Earth, doctors and nurses throughout the country are putting their lives on the line because they lack an adequate supply of surgical masks, gloves and gowns. We must also produce the ventilators as well as the various kinds of testing kits that we need now and will need in the future, as well as the dwindling supply of certain prescription drugs that are essential to treat the virus. States and hospitals should not have to compete against each other. The federal government must take the lead in coordinating efforts.

Further, during this crisis, every American must be able to receive all of the healthcare they need regardless of income. Before the pandemic, 87 million people were uninsured or underinsured. That number is rapidly escalating as millions of workers are not only losing their jobs but are also losing their employer-based health insurance.

The cost of hospital treatment for the coronavirus amounts to tens of thousands of dollars. Tragically, we have already seen people who have delayed treatment due to concerns about cost. In this pandemic, lack of insurance will lead to more deaths and more Covid-19 transmissions.

As long as this pandemic continues, Medicare must be empowered to pay all of the deductibles, co-payments and out-of-pocket healthcare expenses for the uninsured and the underinsured. No one in America who is sick, regardless of immigration status, should be afraid to seek the medical treatment they need during this national crisis.

Obviously, Congress must not only address the pandemic crisis, it must also act with a fierce sense of urgency to effectively deal with the economic crisis as well.

In the last two weeks, a record-breaking 10 million people filed unemployment claims – more than during the entire 2008 Great Recession. Frighteningly, the St Louis Federal Reserve projects that 47 million more people may become unemployed by the end of June, with unemployment reaching 32%. While such estimates may be a worst-case scenario, the reality of the pandemic has taught us that worst-case scenarios are what we must plan for. For the sake of working families all over this country, we must be prepared for all contingencies.

We cannot wait before taking the bold action that is necessary. In my view, it makes a lot more sense to prevent the collapse of our economy than figuring out how we put it back together after it crumbles. Simply stated, that means that every worker must keep receiving his or her paycheck and benefits during the crisis. In the recent emergency relief bill, Congress appropriated over $25bn in grants to the airline companies so that 2 million workers in that industry will continue to receive their full paycheck and benefits through 30 September. And that is exactly what we must do for every worker in America. This is not a radical idea. It is similar to what France, Norway, Denmark, the UK and other countries are doing.

Further, as quickly as possible, we must get money into the hands of people by immediately providing a $2,000 monthly emergency payment to every person in the country until the crisis has passed.

In addition, we must guarantee paid medical and sick leave to all workers. It has been estimated that only 12% of workers in businesses that are likely to stay open during this crisis are receiving paid sick leave benefits as a result of the second coronavirus relief package. We have got to increase this figure to 100%.

Moreover, workers who are on the frontlines of this crisis including those who work in grocery stores, warehouses, paramedics, nurses, pharmacies, domestic workers, postal workers, farm workers, public transit, truck drivers and janitors must receive $500 a week hazard pay, childcare and a safe and secure workplace.

Finally, we must put an immediate moratorium on evictions, foreclosures and utility shut-offs, and suspend payments on rent and mortgage loans for primary residences during this crisis.

This is a frightening and devastating time for our country, and the world. Never before in our lifetimes have we had to deal with both a public health pandemic and an economic meltdown.

The American people deserve and require leadership from Washington that acts aggressively, puts working people first, and provides peace-of-mind to the most vulnerable people in our country. Now more than any point in recent history, we are in this together. We must act with love, compassion and urgency.

Historians will look back at this time to see how we dealt with this unprecedented crisis. I hope they will observe that we responded with the courage and boldness that the moment required.​

 

[Zardnaar]

Just because Bernie Sanders has suspended his campaign does not mean that he's going to hide in a bunker for the rest of his life. He's published this in the Grauniad:

We cannot rely on Trump. Congress must lead the way in this unprecedented crisis
by Bernie Sanders

The American people deserve and require leadership from Washington amid this horrific pandemic and economic meltdown

In this unprecedented moment in American history, we need an unprecedented legislative response. President Trump is incapable of providing leadership, and instead continues to mislead the public and act out of political self-interest. So it is Congress that must lead, and it must do so now.

With anxiety growing, everyone in our country needs to know that, in the midst of this horrific pandemic and economic meltdown, their government is doing everything possible to keep them healthy and financially secure.

In other words, we need to build upon and expand the recent stimulus package with new and bolder emergency legislation which must be passed as soon as possible. Here are a few core principles that must be included in that legislation.

First, Congress must explicitly authorize that the Defense Production Act is fully utilized to demand that the private sector start delivering the equipment and products that our medical personnel desperately need in order to treat their patients. We cannot rely on Trump to do it.

Recent reporting has revealed that the Trump administration did not start ordering crucial equipment like masks until March. It is beyond comprehension that, in the wealthiest nation on Earth, doctors and nurses throughout the country are putting their lives on the line because they lack an adequate supply of surgical masks, gloves and gowns. We must also produce the ventilators as well as the various kinds of testing kits that we need now and will need in the future, as well as the dwindling supply of certain prescription drugs that are essential to treat the virus. States and hospitals should not have to compete against each other. The federal government must take the lead in coordinating efforts.

Further, during this crisis, every American must be able to receive all of the healthcare they need regardless of income. Before the pandemic, 87 million people were uninsured or underinsured. That number is rapidly escalating as millions of workers are not only losing their jobs but are also losing their employer-based health insurance.

The cost of hospital treatment for the coronavirus amounts to tens of thousands of dollars. Tragically, we have already seen people who have delayed treatment due to concerns about cost. In this pandemic, lack of insurance will lead to more deaths and more Covid-19 transmissions.

As long as this pandemic continues, Medicare must be empowered to pay all of the deductibles, co-payments and out-of-pocket healthcare expenses for the uninsured and the underinsured. No one in America who is sick, regardless of immigration status, should be afraid to seek the medical treatment they need during this national crisis.

Obviously, Congress must not only address the pandemic crisis, it must also act with a fierce sense of urgency to effectively deal with the economic crisis as well.

In the last two weeks, a record-breaking 10 million people filed unemployment claims – more than during the entire 2008 Great Recession. Frighteningly, the St Louis Federal Reserve projects that 47 million more people may become unemployed by the end of June, with unemployment reaching 32%. While such estimates may be a worst-case scenario, the reality of the pandemic has taught us that worst-case scenarios are what we must plan for. For the sake of working families all over this country, we must be prepared for all contingencies.

We cannot wait before taking the bold action that is necessary. In my view, it makes a lot more sense to prevent the collapse of our economy than figuring out how we put it back together after it crumbles. Simply stated, that means that every worker must keep receiving his or her paycheck and benefits during the crisis. In the recent emergency relief bill, Congress appropriated over $25bn in grants to the airline companies so that 2 million workers in that industry will continue to receive their full paycheck and benefits through 30 September. And that is exactly what we must do for every worker in America. This is not a radical idea. It is similar to what France, Norway, Denmark, the UK and other countries are doing.

Further, as quickly as possible, we must get money into the hands of people by immediately providing a $2,000 monthly emergency payment to every person in the country until the crisis has passed.

In addition, we must guarantee paid medical and sick leave to all workers. It has been estimated that only 12% of workers in businesses that are likely to stay open during this crisis are receiving paid sick leave benefits as a result of the second coronavirus relief package. We have got to increase this figure to 100%.

Moreover, workers who are on the frontlines of this crisis including those who work in grocery stores, warehouses, paramedics, nurses, pharmacies, domestic workers, postal workers, farm workers, public transit, truck drivers and janitors must receive $500 a week hazard pay, childcare and a safe and secure workplace.

Finally, we must put an immediate moratorium on evictions, foreclosures and utility shut-offs, and suspend payments on rent and mortgage loans for primary residences during this crisis.

This is a frightening and devastating time for our country, and the world. Never before in our lifetimes have we had to deal with both a public health pandemic and an economic meltdown.

The American people deserve and require leadership from Washington that acts aggressively, puts working people first, and provides peace-of-mind to the most vulnerable people in our country. Now more than any point in recent history, we are in this together. We must act with love, compassion and urgency.

Historians will look back at this time to see how we dealt with this unprecedented crisis. I hope they will observe that we responded with the courage and boldness that the moment required.​

Can't disagree with much of that.

 

[caketastydelish]

Not a Biden fan, but he has my vote in November. Couldn’t possibly be any worse.

 

[Takhisis]

Couldn’t possibly be any worse.

ssssss dont jinx it

 

[caketastydelish]

You can’t jinx this unless you want to make the argument that negative numbers exist, because I rank Trump as 0/10.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Fippy, I assume you are quoting Tim?

Obviously wanted to get the last word without having to worry about it being pointed out as stupid. Whatever works.

 

[Takhisis]

You can’t jinx this

pterry would write in a humorous yet deserved downfall for you goaded by this line alone

 

[caketastydelish]

Who is that ?

 

[Berzerker]

Not a Biden fan, but he has my vote in November. Couldn’t possibly be any worse.

He was a primary architect of the drug war, supported invading Iraq, and apparently waited until April before deciding a travel ban from China was a good idea. And dementia's setting in...