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2020 US Election

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Lexicus, Nov 13, 2018.

  1. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    We all know the deal so I figured I'd take the opportunity to just go ahead and make this thread to discuss the 2020 US elections.

    Maybe at some point closer to the actual event we can have a thread about the Congressional side of things and the Presidential side of things. Maybe we can just keep it all in this thread.
     
  2. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo https://thespacecadetblog.com/

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    What are the chances that the Democrats can achieve a supermajority in the Senate? I'm not familiar with the map for the upcoming cycle.

    Also, do they still need a supermajority to do anything? It seems as though the Republicans through out the filibuster rules and were passing major bills with Pence breaking the tie in the senate. I'm not sure if that signals rule changes or was just specific to major votes like Obamacare and raising taxes on the lower and middle classes.
     
  3. stinkubus

    stinkubus Chieftain

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    Some quick thoughts.

    Trump's chances in 2020 are going to be strong. FL and OH are going to be GOP locks. Blatant racial appeals are obviously working there, and I don't expect the WH to moderate their rhetoric anytime soon. The Dems are going to have no margin for error in the Midwest.

    The Senate seats in play will once again favor Republicans, so even if the Democrats win the Whitehouse they probably aren't going to be able to appoint any judges.

    As to the House, who knows?
     
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  4. stinkubus

    stinkubus Chieftain

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    Sorry for the double post, but the map is not favorable for Dems in 2020. The filibuster can be changed or removed by the majority party at the start of any legislative session. Either side has had multiple chances to remove it, but they never will. It's too useful at shielding sitting Senators from tough votes.
     
  5. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    Legislative filibuster is still alive and kicking. The Democrats should get rid of it the moment they have the majority but I doubt they will; even if what stinkubus said wasn't true, the Democrats seem to have an almost obsessive aversion to being seen as "immoderate" or "uncivil" so...

    There are many more Republican than Democratic incumbents up for election. It is more favorable than 2018 on that basis alone. I don't know whether that means it is "favorable" for the Democrats generally; ie, if it means that the Democrats will have a somewhat easy time winning a majority.
     
  6. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    I saw a series of headlines yesterday and the day before suggesting Clinton will be running again in 2020. Made me sick to my stomach.
     
  7. MaryKB

    MaryKB Chieftain

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    I feel that's probably just speculation, I'd much prefer either Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris.
     
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  8. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    I hope so. Apparently Bernie will also run again; I'd really rather he didn't either.
     
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  9. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

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    Too old?
     
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  10. Archon_Wing

    Archon_Wing Vote for me or die

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    FFS vote against Trump.

    I don't care if the Dems put a garbage bag with holes in it as candidate. I've never seen any throw people into camps

    #Brokengarbagebag2020
     
  11. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    Too old, and not worthy of being the 21st century avatar of American socialism.
     
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  12. stinkubus

    stinkubus Chieftain

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    Here's the map.



    Rs are pretty safe everywhere they are defending in 2020. AZ and ME are the only good chances for the Dems to flip seats, imo. Meanwhile the Rs are certain to take back AL, unless they nominate another pedophile in their primary, and they will be drawing live in VA, MI, and NH.
     
  13. GoodEnoughForMe

    GoodEnoughForMe n.m.s.s.

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    I think Booker, Harris, Warren, Klobuchar, Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg, and Hillary are all among the most likely to run. Ojeda declared he was running yesterday but he voted for Trump in 2016, so... yeah. Beto might run too but I'd be surprised.

    Generally incumbents have about 2:1 odds in generic contests as they have a lot of natural advantages. I think Trump has a much smaller margin for error. Any kind of economic slow down, even just a couple quarters of tepid performance, might do him in. That said even a 50.1% favorite is still a fav, and I think a lot on the left are discounting the fact that he can absolutely win again. He has some things going his way, too; wages grew faster than anytime in a decade this last 6 month period, and if high employment finally does put wage pressure out there, even with spiraling out of control inequality, it's probably enough to give him a small boost. His problem is his base is just not that big. There are more Dems than Republicans nationally and more Dems than Trump Republican voters nationally especially. He badly needs to either depress turnout of the former or find whatever magic pill Ohio has (their white rural vote expanded big time in these midterms and Republicans did really well in the state) and use that to keep the midwest. Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will decide the election. Latest data wonks I saw had Michigan at 51-49 generic Dem vs. Trump when factoring in approval rating and demographics and stuff. Knowing this state could be the single most important state in 2020 is despair inducing.

    Dems getting the senate is still a battle but I guess now that 2018 is going to go +1 or 2 as for Republicans as opposed to 3 or 4 like it originally looked, far from impossible. Trump's perpetual disapproval and potential massive turnout for 2020 probably means more Dem state gains.
     
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  14. Archon_Wing

    Archon_Wing Vote for me or die

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    Well, I mean, they think being a pedophile is better than being a CoMMUnist or an Egalitarian so....
     
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  15. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    Florida voters overwhelmingly passed a proposition to restore voting rights to felons. That adds about 1.5 million potential voters, a large majority of which are minorities who got caught up on the wrong side of the GOP's war on drugs. If Florida is any kind of lock going forward it's a lock for the Democrats.
     
  16. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    I saw that the other day too. I don't even know who the guy is but I doubt that Democratic primary voters will vote for anyone who supported Trump in any way over the last three years.
     
  17. GoodEnoughForMe

    GoodEnoughForMe n.m.s.s.

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    It's weird too. He's very left populism-ish and is pro abortion and anti-gun, very pro union pro eating the rich, but a Trump vote basically dooms him completely. Also nobody knows who he is, which dooms him as well. The argument for him is I guess that he did way better in his area than normal Dems do in capturing the white working class vote but someone like Klobuchar or Bernie could do that without a Trump vote baggage (ignoring everything else about all 3 mentioned).
     
  18. Bamspeedy

    Bamspeedy We'll dig up the road!

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    Clinton running again was mentioned by a former aide, key word being 'former' who knows how much contact that aide has with her anymore, and the only evidence this aid has was "other candidates said they weren't running...until they did". So I would bet she is NOT running until there are more reports from other sources.

    Full list of 2020 registered presidential candidates. As of this posting (the list is continually updated), unless I missed someone by skimming the long list, I don't recognize anyone except Trump and Ojeda (who I just read about today).

    https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_registered_2020_presidential_candidates

    Got a kick out of the guy who registered 22 years in advance....

     
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  19. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    In my view voting for Trump is a display of disqualifyingly poor judgment regardless of his other positions on anything. Many Democrats will think the same way; many who don't think it through that way have experienced sufficient revulsion and grief over Trump being president that I predict they will not be able to bring themselves to vote for a man who voted for him.

    Yes, but the story ran in reputable outlets and certainly didn't come across as the sort of breathless speculation you often see in these contexts. At any rate I'm not dying on this hill, I think @MaryKB could well be right but at the same time I wouldn't be too surprised if Hillary ran again, any more than it would surprise me if Bernie ran again.
     
  20. Morty

    Morty Chieftain

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    How can Americans be on another election trail already!???? You've only just finished the last one!?
    At what point do American politicians actually do any work that isn't looking at the next election?? :confused:
     

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