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2020 US Election

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Lexicus, Nov 13, 2018.

  1. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Hm, come on, 10% is a pretty significant percentage, and a critical one in a two party system. Not sure who the 'et al' are supposed to be, but i am not even in the usa so you are rather prone to imagine nonexistent connections.
    Like most europeans, i see the usa as having two right-wing parties. Yet Bern showed you can turn one to be leftist.
     
  2. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Unfortunately, that's quite common.

    J
     
  3. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Warlord Super Moderator

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    Yeah. I mean, I don't know to what extent economic interests are what drive Obama-Trump voters to, say, oppose affirmative action or illegal/high levels of legal immigration, or to vote for Trump. I tend to think "not much" - Trump is clearly not acting in the economic interests of most Obama-Trump voters.

    But the whole "racial resentment" thesis focuses mostly on the denial that minorities have barriers to success caused by being minorities. Basically, someone who believes that everyone is treated more or less equally wrt race, and that worse outcomes for blacks and Latinos are mostly caused by dysfunctional cultural attitudes and the like, is labeled as having high "racial resentment" by political scientists. I think that's kind of a mislabeling - although I think it's factually incorrect, this attitude doesn't directly point to any real "resentment". It probably correlates with it pretty well, though.

    Also, 538 had an interesting article a month or two ago where it was claimed that the majority of the large difference between Obama-Trump voters and Clinton voters on this matter actually came from the Democratic Party moving well to the left on racial issues in the time since 2012. That does match what I have perceived - that liberals got a lot more interested in race and gender identity issues in the past few years, and in a way that seemed to only partly be about trying to make the system fairer for minorities. A not-insignificant chunk of the motivation seems to be about ingroup-outgroup dynamics and virtue signaling: "woke" white liberals plus minorities versus deplorables. It's hard to say exactly how much though.
     
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  4. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    There's founders intent, J's desired results and the results we're currently getting. There's some overlap but they're not exactly the same. I was focusing on how they were similar rather than how they are different.

    In any case, I'd vote for you any day of the week over Trump :)
     
  5. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Would you vote for Ted Cruz over Trump?

    J
     
  6. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    I said I'd vote for Tim over Trump. Ted Cruz wouldn't be a candidate in the Democratic primary, and he wouldn't be the Democratic nominee in the general, so that isn't a relevant issue.

    Do you expect Cruz to be contesting Trump in the primary? That would be interesting. Would you vote for Cruz in that primary? That seems to be a much more relevant question.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2018
  7. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Wouldnt want to choose between two terribly bad candidates? No wonder many bernie voters didnt either.
     
  8. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    I have said many times that I expect Trump to be a one-term President.

    I have no problem voting for Cruz, or against him. To say I expect him to be the next President is not an endorsement. Rather it is recognition of a combination of ambition and ability.

    Trump vs Cruz is an improvement on Trump vs Clinton. I would have voted for Bernie, given the choice.

    J
     
  9. metalhead

    metalhead Angry Bartender

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    I think you've understated what "racial resentment" means. I think the beliefs it correlates with are actual white victimhood - that Black people and Latino/a/x people are advantaged in society, and that white people - or at least, white people similarly situated to them - are the disadvantaged class in America.

    There are probably religious elements to this too, i.e. how Christian's love to pretend they're persecuted. But no, this is not a repackaging of economic concerns. It's blatantly racist denial of white privilege.
     
  10. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    I had to pass this one along. It compares the 2020 Democratic primaries to March Madness.

    How Democrats’ 2020 Battle Resembles a Basketball Tournament
    It’s way too soon to anoint a presidential front-runner. But not to draw brackets in a race to a Final Four.

    The Insider Bracket
    The Liberal Bracket
    The Diversity Bracket
    The Outsider Bracket


    In a final four of bracket winners, almost anything could happen. Party power brokers will have less say than ever before after Democrats foolishly downgraded the nominating role of elected officials. So it’s hard to predict any outcome, but here’s one possible new wrinkle. Electability rarely has been a voting issue for Democrats, but this time – more than ideology, age or geography – an edge may go to the candidate seen as best able to end the Trump nightmare.​
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...20-how-presidential-race-resembles-basketball

    Won't it be a downer if trump declines to run again?

    J
     
  11. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

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    Yes, that is my primary voting consideration.

    No, that is my most earnest hope. But he will run again (assuming he hasn't been impeached and removed from office).
     
  12. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Other than the fact he said so, why do you think that?

    J
     
  13. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

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    Oh, I don't put stock in anything he says.

    Whole presidency has effectively been a ****-waving contest with Obama. He can't be a one-term president when Obama was a two-term president.

    As a more general principle, he can't be rejected by voters once they've seen what he actually is, and regard/peddle himself as a winner. A one-term presidency would be worse for his brand than not having won in 2016.

    Add to that he becomes indictable as soon as his presidency ends.

    Then add to that that nothing gives him as much satisfaction as the adulation he gets at rallies. He'll run just for the running.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2018
  14. Colonel

    Colonel Sandbox

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    I'm putting money on General Mattis running for the presidency in 2020. If he ran as a democrat he would have broad ranging support from a huge chunk of the Republican party and the democratic party would go with almost anyone at this point to get the current president removed from office, be it through impeachment or the next election.
     
  15. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Warlord

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    No one associated with the Trump presidency will be able to run in 2020, if ever again, for high office. They are radioactive.
     
  16. rah

    rah Warlord Supporter

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    But they'll all be able to retire to the speaking circuit charging big bucks for tell all speeches. ;)
     
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  17. Broken_Erika

    Broken_Erika Nothing

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    Or the comedy club circuit........
     
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  18. metalhead

    metalhead Angry Bartender

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    Ding ding ding! We have a winnah!

    He can wait out the statutes on most (all?) of his crimes if he gets re-elected and they decide they have to wait until he's no longer president to indict him. Or at the least he gets 4 more years of freedom.

    I don't think he needs another 4 years to convince himself he was the best president ever and take that to his grave. And monetize the crap out of it by marketing himself to MAGA chuds and hitting the huckster speaking circuit (which he has been on before) and probably doing campaign-style rallies for fun.

    But he doesn't want to go to prison with the rest of them.
     
  19. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    I don't think losing in 2020 hurts his folk-hero-like status among his ardent supporters one bit. In fact I think losing in 2020 is just one more way he becomes a martyr to their cause (with impeachment/removal being another). Losing the election will just cause his supporters to say that the election was rigged by China, Russia, "the media", etc., and cause them to bemoan the deep state conspiracy against their guy. The only difference... which is actually quite meaningful I'd think... is that they won't be able to characterise an election (as opposed to impeachment/removal) as a coup-d'etat. I think that is critical to give us the maximum chance of a peaceful transition of power.

    My concern is that impeachment/removal just carries a higher risk of violence, shootings and worse... with people feeling like the Presidency was stolen from them. Trump has already done the thing he does where he quite transparently calls for something to happen by coyly "predicting" that it will happen... whereby he "predicted" that there would be violent reprisals if he were impeached.
     
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  20. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

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    No negotiating with terrorists.
     

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