2020 US Election (Part One)

[GoodEnoughForMe]

While it's imperative any Dem nominee motivate the base - particularly black voters and under 35 voters, and some will do that better than others - let's be honest; political ideology has literally nothing to do with who wins this thing. Biden and Bernie have the largest overlap in shared supporters and they are not at all alike economically/with policy/whatever. Millennials 3 favorite candidates are Bernie, Beto, and Harris. And with Trump president Dem voters would literally vote in the ghost of Fidel Castro if he was running against Trump.

Anyways, Gillibrand is officially in the running now as she declared yesterday, and Sherrod Brown is extremely close to being officially in and I would be surprised if an announcemet doesn't come very soon.

 

[Sommerswerd]

So by my reckoning its now...

For sure (or almost for sure) running:
Elizabeth Warren
Tulsi Gabbard
Kamala Harris
Kirsten Gillibrand
John Delaney

Probably running:
Bernie Sanders
Beto O'Rourke
Cory Booker
Amy Klobuchar
Sherrod Brown
Richard Ojeda

Maybe:
Julian Castro
Joe Biden
Michael Bloomberg
Bill DiBlasio


I hope:
Gavin Newsom
Oprah Winfrey
Tom Hanks

I'll add Hillary to that last group for the reasons I've stated previously...
Did I miss anyone (or get the status wrong)?

 

[rah]

You left Harrison Ford off your hope list.

 

[Berzerker]

and The Rock

 

[Lexicus]

Did I miss anyone (or get the status wrong)?

Castro already officially announced his run, so he's definitely running.
This link has a list of people 'confirmed to be running' (though I did not see any indication of how they confirmed this) which is: Gillibrand, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Ojeda.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Anyways, Gillibrand is officially in the running now as she declared yesterday

She'd be infinitely better than the present occupant of the White House, so I will happily support her if she emerges as the Democratic nominee, and the choice effectively comes down, as it will that point, to supporting that candidate or four more years of Trump.

and Sherrod Brown is extremely close to being officially in

On Chris Hayes last night, he announced a listening tour to Iowa, New Hampshire and SC to test whether "The Dignity of Work" would work as a campaign focus.

He'd be infinitely better than the present occupant of the White House, so I will happily support him if he emerges as the Democratic nominee, and the choice effectively comes down, as it will that point, to supporting that candidate or four more years of Trump.

 

[Lexicus]

He'd be infinitely better than the present occupant of the White House, so I will happily support him if he emerges as the Democratic nominee, and the choice effectively comes down, as it will that point, to supporting that candidate or four more years of Trump.

What about if Bernie is the nominee? Just curious.

 

[Berzerker]

Sherrod Brown exemplifies the blue collar roots of the Democrat party and his strength would be in the same rust belt Trump needed to beat Hillary, he's Biden-like without carrying Joe's baggage.

 

[Sommerswerd]

You left Harrison Ford off your hope list.

I left out Santa Claus, Spiderman and King T'Challa too . Anyway he's term-limited... Harrison Ford already did an excellent job as POTUS in Air Force One (the inspiring theme to which, Trump co-opted as his victory speech entrance music, to my horror and disappointment since I can't separate the two in my mind now )

and The Rock

Nope... he's Republican... however... I guess I wouldn't mind him primary'ing and soundly defeating Trump. I'll have to think about that one.

Castro already officially announced his run, so he's definitely running.
This link has a list of people 'confirmed to be running' (though I did not see any indication of how they confirmed this) which is: Gillibrand, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Ojeda.

I saw that, but that list is obsolete... for example it still has Warren as a "maybe".

What about if Bernie is the nominee? Just curious.

I'll take this one @Gori the Grey would say:

He'd be infinitely better than the present occupant of the White House, so I will happily support him if he emerges as the Democratic nominee, and the choice effectively comes down, as it will that point, to supporting that candidate or four more years of Trump.

Unsurprisingly... I agree

 

[Lexicus]

I saw that, but that list is obsolete... for example it still has Warren as a "maybe".

Well, at any rate Castro has officially announced he is running so he is 'definitely' running.

Unsurprisingly... I agree

Glad to hear it...hope it won't be like that one time when fully one-fourth of Hillary Clinton's supporters in the primary went on to vote for John McCain...

 

[Sommerswerd]

Glad to hear it...hope it won't be like that one time when fully one-fourth of Hillary Clinton's supporters in the primary went on to vote for John McCain...

I remember seeing polls in 2008 that for example 25% of West Virginia Democrats, actually admitted that they would not vote for Obama, despite being Democrats, because they were not comfortable with a black person being POTUS.

Again... that's the folks who admitted it to a pollster... that should have been a real eye opener for some folks.

 

[rah]

Is that much different than the people that claimed they would not vote for Hillary because they were not comfortable with a woman being POTUS?

 

[Lexicus]

Is that much different than the people that claimed they would not vote for Hillary because they were not comfortable with a woman being POTUS?

Were there such people? I'm not aware of any.

 

[rah]

I heard that from more people than you'd expect. And some were even Democrats.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Is that much different than the people that claimed they would not vote for Hillary because they were not comfortable with a woman being POTUS?

In terms of "wrongness"? No, not really, however, I tend to agree with Lex when he says:

Were there such people? I'm not aware of any.

I don't remember seeing any comparable polling whereby people were saying "Girl POTUS?!? Ewww no way that's yucky dey gots cooties!"

I can definitely imagine that there were people who commented to that effect in private/polite company though...

 

[Lexicus]

I heard that from more people than you'd expect. And some were even Democrats.

Well, I believe you, but I was really talking about something like polls showing "don't want a woman president" as a reason people were reporting they wouldn't vote for Hillary.

I don't remember seeing any comparable polling whereby people were saying "Girl POTUS?!? Ewww no way that's yucky dey gots cooties!"

Exactly. I think most of the people who didn't want a woman President probably didn't admit that to themselves let alone to some pollster.

 

[Azem.Ocram]

With the government shutdown in its 4th week, Republicans hit the hardest (rural Americans especially), and more Mueller results coming soon, the 2020 election might be Pence vs a Democrat. Do you think Pence could win 2020?

 

[rah]

You guys hang out in different circles than I do.
Remember I'm an old white republican.

But I do consider it interesting that people were more willing to admit to pollsters that they wouldn't vote for a black man and not say it about a woman.
Hmmm, admit they're racist over being a sexist.


I remember seeing a poll. (since I was working on research during that election) I'll have to see if I can find it.

 

[Lexicus]

Do you think Pence could win 2020?

Not a snowball's chance in hell.

But I do consider it interesting that people were more willing to admit to pollsters that they wouldn't vote for a black man and not say it about a woman.

Yes. I think that part of this is probably due to the 8-year difference -we often forget the amount of social change that took place in that period, e.g. gay marriage going from controversial to duh. The sheer fact of Obama's victory also probably meant that a lot of people changed their tune on the black president thing very quickly. Like, after Obama won it probably seemed a lot more racist even to them to say/think that than it did before he won, when a black president was still just a hypothetical idea.

I'll have to see if I can find it.

I'm interested and would appreciate it.

 

[rah]

Careful, people said that about Trump.