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2022 Australian Election - Almost the lowest Common Denominator

sendos

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The polls are open this Saturday 21 May 2022. The ruling coalition (Liberal National Party), led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison (nicknamed ScoMo), are seeking a 4th term. Labor, the main opposition, led by Anthony Albanese (nicknamed Albo), are hoping to finally get into government after 9 years in the political wilderness. ScoMo can't afford to lose any seats. if he does, it will be a hung parliament, which hasn't occurred until 2010.

I call this election "almost the lowest common denominator" because the contest is between an incompetent, unintelligent, hollow, lying and arrogant but shrewd marketing man ScoMo and a not so switched on, somewhat media shy, shallow and uncharismatic Albo. I want to see ScoMo gone and I hope Albo doesn't stick his head out too much when governing. Both are gaffe prone and otherwise uninspiring leaders. To any American viewers here, this election may be somewhat comparable to that of Donald Trump vs Joe Biden.

The election is mainly about economic issues followed by health, education and climate change (in no particular order). COVID-19 is not a factor at all. However, the LNP's strong point of the economy isn't working entirely in their favour because debt has tripled under their government.

Is anyone here following the Australian election?
 
I kind of am. Australian Labour is basically repeating NZ Labours 2008-17 strategy of vomiting up party hacks with the charisma of pubic lice.

Scomo is so bad he would lose vs anyone remotely charismatic.

Policy doesn't matter.

In all cases the political elite probably out of touch with average voters.
 
I am only following it here. From a quick google the polls are looking good for Albo?

 
I am only following it here. From a quick google the polls are looking good for Albo?


Looks good ScoMo is behind.

But it comes down to turnout on electoral day in a few "purple" electorate.


Rural will go liberal, urban mostly Ok about except the rich areas.
 
With some very good luck, Zed Seselja may finally get turfed and the ACT finally can have representation which reflects its very strong progressive character, instead of two senators cancelling each other out.

He's certainly spooked enough by Pocock to be actually trying this time. He's showed up to candidate events and debates, tried to attack Labor on local issues claiming they'll hurt Canberran jobs by reducing public service contractors, run actual advertising with pretend policies on cost of housing, all sorts of never before seen efforts. They're even spruiking the support candidates and emphasising the actual party, to divert from his own toxicity.
 
But it comes down to turnout on electoral day in a few "purple" electorate.


Rural will go liberal, urban mostly Ok about except the rich areas.

Turnout is basically the same everywhere and every time because of compulsory voting.

The Libs aren't really much of a rural party, they're an urban one. Australia only has 40 rural seats out of 151 total, and another 22 provincial ones (outside the capital cities but mostly based on provincial cities), The Nationals hold the most rural seats, and they hold no metropolitan ones.

The federal Libs hold 17 inner metropolitan seats, 14 outer metropolitan, 3 provincial and 11 rural seats. The Nationals hold 10 rural seats in NSW and Victoria. The merged party of both Libs and Nats in Queensland holds 8 metropolitan, 5 provincial and 8 rural, and it basically maps that they caucus with the Libs in southeast Queensland, or the Nationals if they're anywhere else in the state (only exception is the far north seat in Cape York is held by a Lib-aligned guy based on him beating the Nationals guy in 1996).

There's also 8 rural Labor seats, and three rural seats not won by major parties in 2019 (two held by centrist independents, one by an eccentric hard right guy in outback Queensland which is basically a hereditary fiefdom at this point).

Labor hold 14 of the 22 provincial seats
 
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I am not.

Setting aside the lack of personality issues, are there any policy differences?

Between which parties? Beyond Labor and the Liberal National parties coalition, there's also four other parties and four independent MPs currently holding seats in the House of Representatives, and the government only possessing the barest of majorities at the time parliament was dissolved:

upload_2022-5-18_0-14-15.png


Of those:

UAP is far right populist and mostly antivaxxer led by a former Liberal who will probabgly lose his seat to the new Lib.

KAP is one weird right wing guy who easily wins every time.

The Greens are left win, will hold their current seat of Melbourne, and have some chance of picking up 1 or 2 more.

Centre Alliance is a centrist in the Adelaide Hills and should hold.

One of the independents quit the LNP and is not recontesting, he's running on an unwinnble right wing minor party senate spot to get a retirement payout. The others are two centrists and one left wing, none of them should be in much danger of losing their seats.

A couple more centrist independents may win seats this time, increasing the chance neither party gets a majority.

In the senate no party has a majority and won't get one this time nor probably ever again:

upload_2022-5-18_0-20-24.png


Of the minors, the Greens are defending 3 seats and hoping to win 3 more to take their total to 12. One Nation (right wing anti immigrant antivax etc) has Pauline Hanson up for re-election and she will probably win her seat again. Lambie in Tasmania is a rightish independent and will be trying to get someone other than herself into a second seat. The Liberal Democrats seat will just go back to the Liberals, that's someone who quit the party in Northern Territory and is not recontesting.

There's also some hope the Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory will lose their senator to a leftish climate focused independent.

But basically the Senate is a contest to see which group of non major parties is needed in order to pass legislation.
 
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Between which parties? Beyond Labor and the Liberal National parties coalition, there's also four other parties and four independent MPs currently holding seats in the House of Representatives, and the government only possessing the barest of majorities at the time parliament was dissolved:

View attachment 628233

Of those:

UAP is far right populist and mostly antivaxxer led by a former Liberal who will probabgly lose his seat to the new Lib.

KAP is one weird right wing guy who easily wins every time.

The Greens are left win, will hold their current seat of Melbourne, and have some chance of picking up 1 or 2 more.

Centre Alliance is a centrist in the Adelaide Hills and should hold.

One of the independents quit the LNP and is not recontesting, he's running on an unwinnble right wing minor party senate spot to get a retirement payout. The others are two centrists and one left wing, none of them should be in much danger of losing their seats.

A couple more centrist independents may win seats this time, increasing the chance neither party gets a majority.

In the senate no party has a majority and won't get one this time nor probably ever again:

View attachment 628236

Of the minors, the Greens are defending 3 seats and hoping to win 3 more to take their total to 12. One Nation (right wing anti immigrant antivax etc) has Pauline Hanson up for re-election and she will probably win her seat again. Lambie in Tasmania is a rightish independent and will be trying to get someone other than herself into a second seat. The Liberal Democrats seat will just go back to the Liberals, that's someone who quit the party in Northern Territory and is not recontesting.

There's also some hope the Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory will lose their senator to a leftish climate focused independent.

But basically the Senate is a contest to see which group of non major parties is needed in order to pass legislation.


Basic idea of Aussie National party? I'm assuming right wing but difference with Liberals?
 
It seems like Scott Morrison is in the BoJo school of playing sports with kids.


Spoiler BoJo's version :
 
With some very good luck, Zed Seselja may finally get turfed and the ACT finally can have representation which reflects its very strong progressive character, instead of two senators cancelling each other out.

He's certainly spooked enough by Pocock to be actually trying this time. He's showed up to candidate events and debates, tried to attack Labor on local issues claiming they'll hurt Canberran jobs by reducing public service contractors, run actual advertising with pretend policies on cost of housing, all sorts of never before seen efforts. They're even spruiking the support candidates and emphasising the actual party, to divert from his own toxicity.
Pocock elected as first ever ACT senator and puting balance of power to good effect.
 
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