2022 NCAA Football Thread

[Quintillus]

Let's get this thread started while it's only halfway through the season!

Two top-10 games this weekend, #5 Michigan vs #10 Penn State, and #3 Alabama vs #6 Tennessee. Should be interesting games to see which teams are really good. All the more so since Alabama has already had a couple close calls.

I'm also curious to see how Kansas does against Oklahoma. If you told me at the start of the year that Kansas would be ranked #19, I would not have believed you. But now I'm rooting for them to win the Big 12, and it looks like they have a real chance to beat the Sooners.

Anyone else taking an interest in the season? Looks like we got a few participants in last year's thread.

 

[ummmm........]

It was a great football day, you also had TCU/Okie State opposite Alabama/Tennessee, so that was three undefeated matchups, only the second time that has happened this late in the season . . .

I know Penn State was down linemen from the start of the season but I think they got exposed, Big Ten will come down to Ohio State/Michigan . . .

Alabama lost any chance we had of getting in as a one-loss non-champion, have to win out now which doesn't seem very likely. Still decent odds of making the SEC title game, just have to beat Miss State, LSU and Ole Miss, none of whom are gimmies but all of whom should be outmatched. But LSU and Ole Miss are both away and we have forgotten how to play away games apparently . . .

Kansas was a great story early in the season, but with their QB Daniels out I don't think I would have expected them to do even as well as they did v Oklahoma. I'm not really following them but with the way the Big Twelve does their conference schedule Kansas doesn't have any gimmies left either. Idk when Daniels is expected to return but even with him it's entirely possible Kansas could lose out and miss a bowl. That's not a prediction, just saying a lot of football left and the best part of this season's Kansas story is probably behind them . . .

So right now I think we're looking at the winner of Ohio State/Michigan (Ohio State), the SEC champ, which I have no prediction on rn, Clemson, who probably won't really deserve it but doesn't have any really great chances to lose left on their schedule, and then the dreaded fourth team that never really belongs, which could be the Ohio State/Michigan loser or the UGA/Tennessee loser, unless the west representative were to somehow win the SEC title game, in which case the fourth undeserving team would likely be the one-loss SEC title game loser over the Ohio State/Michigan loser depending on how those games go. I don't see TCU or UCLA finishing undefeated and I think a one loss Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee or Georgia one-loss non-champion would get in over any Pac-12 or Big Twelve one-loss champion, fair or not . . .

 

[Quintillus]

I agree on Penn State, they clearly weren't at the same caliber as Michigan, and they did worse than the score indicated. 16-14 at halftime but they had one first down the entire half. Michigan scored on every drive except the interception. A matchup of unbeatens the Saturday after Thanksgiving looks more likely than not at this point.

That Tennessee-Alabama game was fun to watch, and for me the resulting celebration was fun to watch as well. I'd see part of Tennessee's game last week against LSU and they looked good there, so I thought they had a chance, and they took advantage of it. As for Alabama, after barely beating Texas (even after Ewers got injured in the first half), and coming within 2 yards and 3 seconds of losing to Texas A&M (admittedly without Young), they looked like a team that could lose against a good opponent that was having a good day.

It'll be interesting to watch Tennessee versus Georgia in a few weeks. I haven't watched a Georgia game this year, but while they generally dominate the box score, the Kent State and Missouri results suggest they can have an off day.

I hadn't realized Daniels was out, that 52-42 result looks better knowing that. Hard to say how the Big Twelve will end up.

At this point I'd probably put Ohio State 1, Georgia 2 (lower due to Kent State/Missouri results, but very close), Michigan 3. I don't really know if Clemson or Tennessee is better, but Tennessee has the better win and beating a 3-3 Florida State by 6 is not impressive, so I'll give Tennessee the 4 spot. Then probably Clemson 5, Alabama 6, Ole Miss 7. TCU 8? Oregon 9. Wake Forest 10?

I'll be starting out watching Ohio State/Iowa next week, but if that one isn't close at halftime and Clemson/Syracuse is, I might switch over to see how that one finishes. That is probably Clemson's best remaining chance to lose, and they ever-so-slightly eclipse Alabama as my second favorite team to see lose. Mostly because they always seem to waltz in to the playoffs without having played a really tough game, in part due to not being a Swinney fan.

 

[ummmm........]

Should be another good week, need three screens for both the afternoon and evening slots. I think this is the time of year where baseball starts interfering and we get fewer late games idr . . .

 

[Quintillus]

UCLA/Oregon ought to be really interesting in that mid-afternoon slot. Maybe Oklahoma State/Texas too, is Texas back? What's the third one? I don't expect LSU to be good enough to give Ole Miss a good test, unless it turns out Ole Miss is overrated.

I'll probably skip the evening slot after the early/mid afternoon ones, three games in one day is a bit much for me. Though TCU/Kansas State could be good. Minnesota/Penn State could be too, but after last week, my guess is that if it is, it's because Penn State is overrated. Mississippi State probably isn't good enough to give Alabama a good test, but they are putting up big points most weeks so a shootout isn't out of the question.

I've only got one screen and over-the-air at home, so that also means Penn State/Minnesota is the only of the ranked evening games I could watch at home, which is a bit meh. All the expected-to-be-good early games are over-the-air.

There have been some good baseball games too, I didn't regret switching to baseball-by-radio in the evening on Saturday. Too bad the Astros and Yankees advanced, I guess I'll have to root for the NL champion.

 

[ummmm........]

With Ewers back healthy Texas is my pick to win the Big Twelve atm, and yeah I was counting LSU/Ole Miss as the third game. LSU has been looking better than they seem to be getting credit for in the polls, which is understandable with two losses halfway through. But they are actually favored by one and a half this weekend, game is in Baton Rouge . . .

Night slot has that baseball effect I mentioned, KState/TCU would be on Fox w/o baseball interfering . . .

 

[Quintillus]

I didn't watch as much this weekend, Syracuse's collapse against Clemson was the closest one I saw. They did drive down the field a bit towards the end, but with 0 points in the second half, it didn't have the same feeling of a real chance of an upset that Tennessee/Alabama did.

The Big Ten is a bit more sorted after Penn State/Minnesota, with the catch that Morgan was out. But I think it's clear that it's Ohio State/Michigan at the top, then Penn State, then maybe Illinois, then everyone else. Next week in Happy Valley should be interesting, but with Ohio State beating Iowa by the largest margin in 47 years, and scoring almost as many points against Iowa as Iowa's first 6 opponents combined, I don't think Penn State can win even with their considerable home-field advantage.

Didn't watch much of Texas/Oklahoma State, but TCU keeps rolling.

Also didn't catch LSU/Ole Miss, but LSU sure turned in a result. That means there are only 3 teams that look like they have a legit shot at the SEC title now. Well, maybe four if LSU can do as well against Alabama as Ole Miss, but I'm not counting on it.

My new picks:
1. Ohio State.
2. Georgia.
3. Michigan.
4. Tennessee
5. Alabama (+1)
6. TCU (+2)
7. Clemson (-2)
8. Oregon (+1)
9. Oklahoma State (new)
10. Wake Forest.

Clemson didn't impress me against Syracuse, coming within a play or two of losing, and it sure didn't look like a field-storming-worthy win. If TCU runs the Big Twelve, I think that'll be more impressive than Clemson running the ACC.

1-5 look like they have a shot of winning the title, maybe 6 if the Big Twelve is having a good year, which it might be.

Next week: Ohio State faces its biggest test yet against Penn State. Oklahoma State faces a pretty good Kansas State. And Notre Dame versus Syracuse should be a good litmus test for how strong the ACC is.

 

[ummmm........]

I think you're underestimating LSU still, I'd def give them a strong chance against Alabama at home in Baton Rouge at night, as I expect. Not saying I'd pick LSU, but it will definitely be a game and I wouldn't be surprised if they can pull it out . . .

Tennessee has Kentucky at home before going to Athens so a little bit of a trap game there, esp since they can afford to lose it and still make the playoffs if they win out. I don't expect that one to be close, but something to watch . . .

I don't expect TCU to win out. They're probably better than all their remaining opponents but they've won too many too close and are bound to slip up. If they do win out they'll go ahead of the SEC/Big Ten one loss non-champions, not Clemson, who is virtually a lock at this point . . .

I'd say it's Ohio State's year at this point. They haven't had the most impressive schedule, but that's not their fault with Notre Dame and several Big Ten teams just not having the year we were expecting . . .

 

[Quintillus]

Tennessee didn't fall to the trap game. They dominated Kentucky.

My new top 10:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State (-1 after beating Penn State by less than Michigan)
4. Tennessee
5. Alabama
6. Clemson
7. TCU (-1 after close game versus WV)
8. Oregon
9. UCLA
10. Penn State?

10 should probably be USC but barely beating Arizona seems less impressive than being ahead of Ohio State after 51 minutes. It's hard to fill that spot though, Oklahoma State imploded and Wake Forest fell. Utah won unimpressively, as did Ole Miss.

Having watched Penn State against both Michigan and Ohio State, Michigan's run game did much better against the Nittany Lions. Penn State probably learned a few things, and Ohio State losing one of their tandem running backs in the first half was a factor. But Penn State was up 21-16 with 9 minutes to go, whereas they never looked like they had a chance against Michigan. So Michigan moves up. On the other hand, Ohio State's scoring 28 points in 7 minutes shows that when Ohio State's offense (and defensive turnovers) gets going, they can make anyone's defense miserable, even a team that looked like it had things figured out for three quarters. I think Ohio State was trying to beat Penn State the same way Michigan had - with the run - but after falling behind late switched to what was working better (the air game), and things changed very quickly.

I wasn't too surprised it was close, Penn State always plays well against Ohio State, especially in Happy Valley. Often it winds up being the most memorable game of the year (as an Ohio State fan), and it might wind up being the most memorable game this year.

There were three players who really stood out. Parker Washington (WR, Penn State) had a standout day. Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State) was most of the Buckeyes offense for the first three quarters (and still quite active in the fourth). And the MVP was J.T. Tuimoloau (defensive lineman, Ohio State), creating four turnovers, two sacks, and a touchdown. That guy needs to get a raise.

One could make a good case for putting Tennessee 2 or 3, but I'd rather keep my powder dry on that until I see how they do against Georgia.

North Carolina marched on as my best hope for someone beating Clemson, I was pleased to see that.

I sadly missed the Miami-Virginia game, which Miami won 14-12 in four overtimes, with no touchdowns scored by either side.

-----

Next weekend I'll be watching Ohio State beat Northwestern in the noon slot. That one ought to be a blowout, Northwestern has the worst record in the Big Ten.

Then Tennessee-Georgia in the late afternoon. Really curious about that one, could go either way. If the weather's good, I might even skip the noon game and just watch this one. Too bad it's in Georgia, if it were in Rocky Top I'd be rooting for a third set of goalposts.

Alabama-LSU and Clemson-Notre Dame could be interesting in the evening. Notre Dame handled Syracuse more easily than Clemson did, so even though they're 5-3 and unranked, it could be a good game. I'll only have Clemson-Notre Dame over the air, so that's the one I'll be watching, if it's close. Although if LSU is putting up a good enough show by halftime and Clemson-Notre Dame isn't close, I might be persuaded to go out to watch the second half of that one.

 

[ummmm........]

First time Ohio State has really looked human all year I think. It had already occurred to me earlier in the week that I might be overhyping them since their defense hadn't really been tested at all -- and still hasn't -- but Penn State slowing their offense down for three and a half quarters and actually leading at the half despite the two interceptions tells me the other elite teams would definitely have a shot. It will be interesting to see how Michigan will fare against them. Ohio State would still be my pick to win it all at this point, but it could just be bc I'm more familiar with the other contenders weaknesses . . .

Tennessee otoh was very impressive. I now consider them a legitimate contender and gun to my head would probably pick them over UGA this week. They'll have to outscore everyone since they can't stop anyone through the air, but the thing is they can . . .

My opinion on Alabama/LSU hasn't changed, which makes sense since both were off this week. I'm still going to say Alabama will win, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if LSU does. Kind of the same way I feel about Clemson/Notre Dame with Notre Dame playing better lately, but I'm not giving them as much of a shot as LSU . . .

TCU keeps tiptoeing right on the line every week. Four more chances to trip up before the conference title game, I'm guessing they'll become irrelevant soon enough . .

Oregon is an interesting case. If they win out I'd be curious to see if the committee would overlook their humiliating loss to UGA early in the year and let them in as a one loss conference champ over the one loss non-champs from the SEC and Big Ten. There's always that one team that didn't really earn their way in every year, and the committee has been willing to overlook some embarrassing losses in the past, might as well be the Ducks this year I guess. But still, what if one of those one loss non-champs was UGA . . ?

 

[Quintillus]

Oregon is an interesting case. If they win out I'd be curious to see if the committee would overlook their humiliating loss to UGA early in the year and let them in as a one loss conference champ over the one loss non-champs from the SEC and Big Ten. There's always that one team that didn't really earn their way in every year, and the committee has been willing to overlook some embarrassing losses in the past, might as well be the Ducks this year I guess. But still, what if one of those one loss non-champs was UGA . . ?

If the other one-loss non-champ was UGA, and assuming their loss is to Tennessee and it's not a blowout, I think you'd have to go Georgia over Oregon.

But if it's someone else... a week 1 loss counts a lot less than a late season loss, since teams can improve considerably over the course of the season. 2014 Ohio State lost in week 2 to unranked Virginia, got in with the 4th spot, and won the championship. But it also required a lot of style points near the end, beating #13 Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big Ten Championship, despite Wisconsin being favored, to leapfrog TCU and reach the playoff.

Oregon might be in a similar situation where they'll need to show that they're so much better than anyone else in the Pac-12 by the end of the year that they might have a chance of beating Georgia, or another team of similar stature, from cumulative improvements over the season. It's probably ideal for them if USC is their championship game opponent, then they'll have had an opportunity to beat all the likely-to-be-better-than-.500 teams in the conference.

 

[ummmm........]

Plus it's a chance to get a Pac-12 team in there, which isn't that common of an opportunity. With the upcoming expansion to twelve teams being driven more by inclusion than competition, it would be consistent with that theme . . .

 

[Daniel Boone]

Kansas vs Oklahoma should be a good game. If Kansas had their starting QB in, then I think they would win easily. Right now though, I think it’s 50/50. I’ll be rooting for OU.

 

[Quintillus]

Kansas vs Oklahoma should be a good game. If Kansas had their starting QB in, then I think they would win easily. Right now though, I think it’s 50/50. I’ll be rooting for OU.

Ehhh, it's Oklahoma State. Although I'm not sure if that changes the calculus much. A week ago I would have said Kansas wouldn't stand a chance against them without Daniels, but then Oklahoma State got shut out 48-0, so now who knows.

I guess that means I'm saying even though it's a different Oklahoma school, 50/50 still sounds about right.

 

[Daniel Boone]

Oh, Oklahoma state, whoops. Well never mind what I said about Oklahoma. I’ll still be rooting for the Jayhawks to lose.

 

[ummmm........]

That Okie State/Kansas line is at a pick 'em now, which is really surprising to me. Idk what happened to them last week but how do you go from a three point loss to TCU to a touchdown win over Texas to losing 48-0 to KState? Meanwhile Kansas is on a three game slide after starting 5-0. I'm going to say the KState game is the outlier there and Okie State pulls this one off . . .

Other lines of note: UGA is favored by eight in the "1v1" matchup v Tennessee, Alabama is favored by almost two TDs in Baton Rouge, that KState team that beat Okie State by forty-eight is a two and a half point dog at home to Texas and Clemson is only favored by three and a half in South Bend . . .

Meanwhile, are we not going to freak out about the initial CFP rankings? Alabama ahead of TCU? Tennessee at #1? Texas ranked with three losses? What if the three SEC teams go 1-1-1 in a round robin? What if Ohio State and Michigan is decided in multiple overtimes? What if TCU wins out? What do we do with a one-loss Pac-12 champ? Does an undefeated Clemson deserve to be in ahead of all of those teams? Where is the opportunity? Is this even America anymore?

 

[Quintillus]

Meh, it's early November. Plenty of time to sort out whether TCU or Clemson is for real, who's the best team in the SEC and by how much, and most likely we won't know the Big Ten answer until after Thanksgiving regardless.

Initial CFP ratings? They don't mean anything more than the AP ratings do at this point. Texas is #26 in the AP poll, #24 in CFP. Overranked, maybe, but losing to Alabama doesn't really count as a loss when you lose 20-19 and might have won if the game had lasted 61 minutes.

 

[ummmm........]

Ofc they don't mean anything, it's just fun . . .

 

[Quintillus]

First time slot over for the day, purple teams go 1/2.

I watched Ohio State at Northwestern, it definitely didn't go how anyone except maybe Pat Fitzgerald might have expected. It turns out the way to stop Ohio State's pass game is to bring 25 mph winds with gusts up to 50 mph to the field. Then to stop Ohio State's rush game, it really helps if one of the Buckeyes' two running backs is out, which was the case for the second week in a row (but a different back each week). In the end the Buckeyes found a way to win by finding another rusher, a guy named C.J. Stroud who had -4 yards rushing all year coming into the game but got 79 yards rushing this week.

MVP was OSU punter Jesse Mirco, he won the field position game pretty much by himself, topped the stat book with a 77 yard punt, and did quite respectably into the wind as well. I was reminded of coach Tressel's saying, "the punt is the most important play in football" - it might not always be true but it was this week.

Didn't watch TCU, but from the score updates it looks like they didn't have an easy game either, but were able to pull away late and remain undefeated.

---

Tennessee loses to UGA... it didn't feel nearly as close as the final score either. Tennessee got a touchdown but Georgia's defense looked awfully dominant.

Current thinking (pre-Clemson-ND) is:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson
5. TCU
6. Tennessee
7. Alabama
8. Oregon

That is somewhat ordered by "who do I think could challenge Georgia?", in putting Tennessee/Alabama below Clemson/TCU. Is TCU better than Tennessee? Results would suggest not, but I'd be more curious to see them take on Georgia than to see Tennessee take them on again. We don't know that TCU would lose to Georgia, we do know that Tennessee did. Alabama will have a chance to make their case if they win the rest of their games. Tennessee did better than Oregon against Georgia at least.

Also, Rock Chalk.

 

[ummmm........]

Oof. First week of November and nothing left to play for. The next three games will double the number of regular season games Alabama has played when out of playoff contention since 2008. And by a total of four point no less . . .

I was more disappointed in Tennessee than impressed with UGA. That Tennessee defense is not a strong unit and coming away with only twenty-seven total points and only three in the second half does not inspire confidence . . .

Still, they and Michigan are the only two contenders who are really doing what they are supposed to be doing rn. Ohio State has looked like crap -- by Ohio State standards -- for three weeks in a row now. Ofc they can afford to allow that trend to continue until they face Michigan, which is bound to wake them up one would think. Clemson also looked like garbage and I'd like to think that eliminates them from the playoffs but I'm not sure. The Ohio State/Michigan winner is obviously in and probably the loser as well. UGA is now probably the SEC's only viable candidate, with the possibility of being left out entirely if LSU can shock the world in the title game. That leaves probably one slot for the ACC/Big Twelve/Pac-12 champ. If TCU can hang on I guess they'd be the pick as the only undefeated of the three, but I still believe they're living too close to the edge not to drop one. Oregon is the most likely Pac-12 rep and they already have that terrible loss to UGA so that would be a mark against them. And Clemson would ofc have the terrible ND loss. With the committee historically being more interested in wins than losses I guess Oregon would still get the nod there, esp if they get USC in their title game . . .

In happier news, Kansas is bowl eligible \o/ Turns out Okie State is having some sort of qb issue, with their starter being out or playing hurt, which explains their recent turn . . .

Also, Texas covered that KState line with TCU now on deck . . .