So it appears that we may have the most credible 3rd party candidates running in a long time. Gary Johnson is the odds on favorite to win the nomination of the Libertarian Party. Johnson was the former Gov of New Mexico. The Constitution Party meanwhile, nominated former US Rep Virgil Goode (R-VA). Goode is a bit of a creep, but his party may be gaining in respectability. Ron Paul endorsed the Constitution Party in 2008, for what it's worth. The Green Party has not decided who they will run, although I believe Roseanne Barr is the odds on favorite. Obviously none of these guys are going to win, but with Congressional popularity at an all time low, satisfaction with the status quo very low, and with libertarian-ish views unlikely to be represented much in this race, how much do you think they can win? Will all three combine to take 7% of the share? 10% Will either Obama or Romney finish 3rd anywhere? What may make a 3rd party surge more or less likely?