(4-09) CS Rigging increase Coup Chance from +20% -> +30%

[Stalker0]

Proposal: Currently when you rig a CS, your chance of success on a coup increase by ~20% (can be slightly different depending on a few other factors). The proposal is to increase this to +30% (a +10% increase).

Rationale: The new coup formula is working well, and generally requires some good spy investment before a reasonable coup risk comes in. The results are just a bit low though after a rigging, and so a 10% increase to ensure the spy time is worth it.

 

[axatin]

I think 20% for a level 1 spy is fine, but the values for higher level spies are too low. I’d rather keep the base value at 20% and have it increased by 10% or maybe 15% per additional spy level.

 

[Recursive]

I think 20% for a level 1 spy is fine, but the values for higher level spies are too low. I’d rather keep the base value at 20% and have it increased by 10% or maybe 15% per additional spy level.

Counterproposal?

 

[axatin]

Still thinking about it, I'm not completely happy with it yet. The issue is that spy level increases the coup chances themselves only by a very low amount: If the base chance (before rigging) for a level 1 spy is 40%, it would be 41.6% for a level 2 spy and 42.8% for a level 3 spy. This proposal would encourage using high-level spies for rigging and then switching to a low-level spy to try the coup.

The second issue I have with the current implementation: the formula (see here) is way too complicated. The player shouldn't be required to do advanced mathematical calculations to understand what some modifier does.

So, my idea is something simplified like: Rigging an election increases coup chance by 20%. A level 2 spy has a +20% increased coup chance (so they get one election rigging for free, so to say). +40% for a level 3 spy. Counterspies reduce the chance by 20% for each counterspy level.

What are your thoughts about this?

Spoiler New Formula :

Coup chance percentage = (50 - ID/25) + N*20
with ID the Influence Difference between the players and N calculated as
N = (Number of successful riggings) + (Spy Level) - 1 - (Enemy Counterspy Level) + (Cultural Influence Bonus)

(Spy Levels are 1,2,3. The minus one in the formula is there to make using a level 1 spy result in N=0)

 

[der_weihnachtsmann]

40 % seems really big tho. Its quickly up to 100 % and thats not really what you would want. Maybe half it.

 

[azum4roll]

Hard no on removing the exponent part, which makes Covert Action give a flat +20% and potentially allows 100% coup chance without any rigging done. The base coup chance is hard capped at 50% without rigs for a reason.

No mathematical calculation is really needed. You just need to know that each election rig increases the current coup chance by 20% or less, and coups are also easier if you're culturally influential to the current ally, have closer CS influence to the current ally, have a higher level spy, or have Covert Action.

High level spy is more effective at couping a CS with high influence difference.

Still thinking about it, I'm not completely happy with it yet. The issue is that spy level increases the coup chances themselves only by a very low amount: If the base chance (before rigging) for a level 1 spy is 40%, it would be 41.6% for a level 2 spy and 42.8% for a level 3 spy. This proposal would encourage using high-level spies for rigging and then switching to a low-level spy to try the coup.

The second issue I have with the current implementation: the formula (see here) is way too complicated. The player shouldn't be required to do advanced mathematical calculations to understand what some modifier does.

So, my idea is something simplified like: Rigging an election increases coup chance by 20%. A level 2 spy has a +20% increased coup chance (so they get one election rigging for free, so to say). +40% for a level 3 spy. Counterspies reduce the chance by 20% for each counterspy level.

What are your thoughts about this?

Spoiler New Formula :

Coup chance percentage = (50 - ID/25) + N*20
with ID the Influence Difference between the players and N calculated as
N = (Number of successful riggings) + (Spy Level) - 1 - (Enemy Counterspy Level) + (Cultural Influence Bonus)

(Spy Levels are 1,2,3. The minus one in the formula is there to make using a level 1 spy result in N=0)

 

[Stalker0]

The second issue I have with the current implementation: the formula (see here) is way too complicated.

while it looks complicated, the actual changes based on XYZ mechanics are pretty straightforward. It might make sense to post those, but leave the formula alone.

 

[axatin]

Hard no on removing the exponent part, which makes Covert Action give a flat +20% and potentially allows 100% coup chance without any rigging done. The base coup chance is hard capped at 50% without rigs for a reaso

40 % seems really big tho. Its quickly up to 100 % and thats not really what you would want. Maybe half it.

Hmm, yes, I see your points there...

No mathematical calculation is really needed. You just need to know that each election rig increases the current coup chance by 20% or less, and coups are also easier if you're culturally influential to the current ally, have closer CS influence to the current ally, have a higher level spy, or have Covert Action.

The problem with complicated formulas is that without calculations it's hard to see what they do exactly. So let's calculate. If we have no cultural influence or covert action, and no riggings have been done yet:

Influence Difference	0	200	400	600	800	1000	1200	1400	1600
Coup chance level 1 spy	50%	42%	34%	26%	18%	10%	2%	0%	0%
Coup chance level 2 spy	50%	43.3%	36.6%	30%	23.3%	16.6%	10%	3.3%	0%
Coup chance level 3 spy	50%	44.2%	38.5%	32.8%	27.1%	21.4%	15.7%	10%	4.3%

Rigging elections increases these values by a flat 20% each time, independent of spy level.

Sorry to say, but I think something needs be changed here. A level 2 spy gives me maybe +8% coup chance. I wouldn't ever risk a level 2 spy getting killed for an additional 8% coup chance. It's less than half of what I'd get if I just waited one more election.

 

[azum4roll]

How much extra coup chance do you think each spy level should give? You can add it as an extra part in the base success rate. They don't even have to scale linearly.

 

[Stalker0]

Sorry to say, but I think something needs be changed here. A level 2 spy gives me maybe +8% coup chance. I wouldn't ever risk a level 2 spy getting killed for an additional 8% coup chance. It's less than half of what I'd get if I just waited one more election.

I agree, but to me that's working as intended. You should send higher level spies to cities now that you have unlocked more missions. Leave your level 1 spies to the coup work.

 

[axatin]

How much extra coup chance do you think each spy level should give? You can add it as an extra part in the base success rate. They don't even have to scale linearly.

I thought about it a bit more and have changed my mind. You're right that coups shouldn't be too easy without any rigging having been done. After all, that's what we have the new rigging-increases-influence mechanic for. I found a solution to the problem I had with my initial idea (the possible exploit of switching high-level against low-level spies for the coups), and will now make a counter-proposal with it.

Let's keep the formula as it is, the exponential part is a bit complicated but that's a minor issue.

 

[axatin]

I sponsor this.

 

[Recursive]

Proposal sponsored by axatin.

 

[Slyceth]

I sponsor this even further: The game should simply remove the % entirely, and just tell you if you press the button, the coup will fail or succeed. No more "hmm, if I press this button while it says 60% it should succeed, so I'll just reload if it doesn't succeed"

It could tell you that if you want to press the coup button succesfully, you should complete x quests for the city state, or this one specific quest, or just gain like 15 more influence, or send a great diplomat.

 

[Anarcomu]

@Slyceth No, you don't sponsor it. Sponsoring mean that you are ready to commit work to implement the change. Stop throwing this word around.
And stop asking people to not sponsor something, this is up to the community to decide.