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650 AI Game 4UC Stats / Analysis

L. Vern

Warlord
Joined
Sep 5, 2022
Messages
139
Location
Ontario, Canada
Hello all,
Here's a stat dump of 650 4UC games played off of V4.5, to get as close a comparison as possible between 4UC and base VP. Same settings as previous run: communitu map, 8 player emperor.
The base version is the same, and number of games is the same, so let's take a look at what difference 4UC makes as well as stats for 4UC in general.

Spoiler Civ Winrate Changes :

Civ
VP Rank​
4UC Rank​
Rank Change
VP Winrate​
4UC Winrate​
Winrate Change
Siam
9​
1​
8↑
20​
27.4​
7.4⇈
Austria
1​
2​
-1↓
31.9​
26.2​
-5.6⇊
Germany
4​
3​
1↑
24.4​
24.5​
-
Korea
8​
4​
4↑
20.4​
23​
2.6↑
Poland
13​
5​
8↑
18.2​
22.2​
4.0↑
Arabia
5​
6​
-1↓
21.5​
21.1​
-
Songhai
12​
7​
5↑
18.8​
20.5​
1.7↑
China
3​
8​
-5↓
24.6​
20.4​
-4.2↓
India
18​
9​
9↑
13​
20.2​
7.1⇈
The Netherlands
2​
10​
-8↓
27.5​
20​
-7.5⇊
Byzantium
22​
11​
11⇈
10.9​
17.6​
6.7⇈
The Maya
10​
12​
-2↓
19.3​
17.2​
-2.1↓
The Inca
14​
13​
1↑
17.9​
16.8​
-1.1↓
Greece
15​
14​
1↑
16​
16​
-
Carthage
37​
15​
22⇈
5.2​
15​
9.8⇈
Babylon
24​
16​
8↑
10.5​
14.9​
4.3↑
Egypt
23​
17​
6↑
10.7​
14.7​
4.0↑
Venice
7​
18​
-11⇊
20.7​
14.5​
-6.2⇊
Polynesia
29​
19​
10⇈
7.8​
13.3​
5.5⇈
Morocco
11​
20​
-9↓
18.9​
13.2​
-5.7⇊
Portugal
17​
21​
-4↓
13.5​
12.2​
-1.3↓
Russia
26​
22​
4↑
9.9​
11.8​
1.9↑
The Ottomans
6​
23​
-17⇊
20.8​
11.5​
-9.3⇊
The Zulus
32​
24​
8↑
6.9​
11.4​
4.5↑
The Celts
19​
25​
-6↓
12.5​
10.1​
-2.4↓
Brazil
20​
26​
-6↓
11.3​
9.7​
-1.6↓
Sweden
25​
27​
-2↓
10.3​
9.5​
-
Japan
38​
28​
10⇈
4.7​
8.8​
4.1↑
Assyria
21​
29​
-8↓
11.2​
7.2​
-4.0↓
Indonesia
16​
30​
-14⇊
14​
7​
-7.0⇊
England
34​
31​
3↑
6.7​
7​
-
Ethiopia
31​
32​
-1↓
7.1​
6.7​
-
Denmark
35​
33​
2↑
6.2​
5.7​
-
America
36​
34​
2↑
5.7​
5.5​
-
France
41​
35​
6↑
1.6​
5.4​
3.9↑
Rome
33​
36​
-3↓
6.7​
5.1​
-1.6↓
Persia
27​
37​
-10⇊
8.1​
5.1​
-3.1↓
The Iroquois
30​
38​
-8↓
7.8​
4.9​
-2.9↓
The Shoshone
39​
39​
-
3.4​
4.4​
-
Mongolia
42​
40​
2↑
1.5​
3.8​
2.3↑
The Huns
43​
41​
2↑
0.7​
3.6​
2.9↑
The Aztecs
28​
42​
-14⇊
7.9​
2​
-6.0⇊
Spain
40​
43​
-3↓
1.7​
0.8​
-


Some highlights of base VP vs 4UC:

Biggest Winners
  • Carthage: 22 ranks, 9.8% WR
  • Siam: 8 ranks, 7.4% WR
  • India: 9 ranks, 7.1% WR
  • Byzantium: 11 ranks, 6.7% WR
  • Polynesia: 10 ranks, 5.5% WR
Biggest Losers
  • Ottomans: 17 ranks, 9.3% WR
  • Netherlands: 8 ranks, 7.5% WR
  • Indonesia: 14 ranks, 7% WR
  • Venice: 11 ranks, 6.2 WR
  • Aztecs: 14 ranks, 6% WR



Spoiler Winrate Quantiles :

VP: 12.5 ± 7.63 (1 SD)
4UC: 12.5 ± 7.10 (1 SD)
1715323609047.png

This is a QQ-like plot for evaluating the shape of a distributions quantiles. More concretely, this is a plot of each civs 43 sorted winrates against their quantiles.

Key takeaways:
  1. Base VP has higher win rates in the top quantiles, meaning the top base VP civs are more powerful than top 4UC civs
  2. Base VP has a smaller slope in bottom quantiles, meaning bottom base VP civs are less powerful than 4UC civs
  3. 4UC has a slightly tighter winrate spread than base VP
  4. The winrates are roughly normally distributed (a perfect normal distribution would be a straight line on such a plot)


Spoiler Victory Type Comparison :

1715323521120.png

1715323533795.png

1715323546135.png


4UC games are a more consistent length on average, and the median 4UC game takes slightly fewer terns than the median base VP game.


The remaining sections are stats from 650 4UC games
Spoiler Civ Winrates :

1715323711715.png

tiles and cities columns refer to average percentage ownership per game
Civ
Games​
Winrate​
Culture Victories​
Diplomatic Victories​
Domination Victories​
Science Victories​
Time Victories​
Avg Pct Tiles Owned​
Avg Pct Cities Owned​
Avg Score​
Siam
113​
0.274​
8​
16​
0​
7​
0​
0.167​
0.154​
1921​
Austria
122​
0.262​
8​
17​
0​
7​
0​
0.147​
0.137​
1964​
Germany
110​
0.245​
5​
19​
0​
3​
0​
0.158​
0.145​
1640​
Korea
126​
0.23​
10​
0​
0​
19​
0​
0.173​
0.172​
1910​
Poland
99​
0.222​
14​
3​
0​
5​
0​
0.155​
0.147​
2077​
Arabia
114​
0.211​
20​
0​
0​
4​
0​
0.144​
0.139​
1568​
Songhai
132​
0.205​
1​
4​
14​
8​
0​
0.408​
0.418​
3506​
China
103​
0.204​
17​
0​
0​
4​
0​
0.177​
0.173​
1773​
India
124​
0.202​
17​
0​
0​
8​
0​
0.162​
0.154​
1678​
The Netherlands
110​
0.2​
3​
17​
0​
2​
0​
0.187​
0.177​
1713​
Byzantium
119​
0.176​
0​
11​
0​
10​
0​
0.155​
0.149​
1775​
The Maya
116​
0.172​
4​
5​
1​
10​
0​
0.188​
0.187​
2045​
The Inca
119​
0.168​
1​
0​
1​
18​
0​
0.256​
0.26​
2917​
Greece
119​
0.16​
1​
15​
0​
3​
0​
0.193​
0.182​
1667​
Carthage
100​
0.15​
0​
12​
0​
3​
0​
0.223​
0.227​
2074​
Babylon
121​
0.149​
9​
0​
0​
9​
0​
0.164​
0.161​
1979​
Egypt
109​
0.147​
13​
0​
0​
3​
0​
0.157​
0.15​
1609​
Venice
124​
0.145​
6​
8​
0​
4​
0​
0.177​
0.165​
2250​
Polynesia
105​
0.133​
1​
9​
0​
4​
0​
0.2​
0.202​
1927​
Morocco
121​
0.132​
1​
14​
0​
1​
0​
0.127​
0.117​
1469​
Portugal
115​
0.122​
2​
2​
0​
10​
0​
0.192​
0.192​
1884​
Russia
119​
0.118​
2​
4​
0​
8​
0​
0.249​
0.251​
2304​
The Ottomans
113​
0.115​
1​
5​
1​
6​
0​
0.222​
0.223​
1946​
The Zulus
114​
0.114​
0​
0​
10​
2​
1​
0.37​
0.372​
2965​
The Celts
129​
0.101​
2​
5​
0​
6​
0​
0.169​
0.164​
1601​
Brazil
103​
0.097​
3​
3​
0​
4​
0​
0.148​
0.145​
1549​
Sweden
126​
0.095​
2​
0​
7​
3​
0​
0.306​
0.313​
2677​
Japan
125​
0.088​
4​
1​
0​
6​
0​
0.186​
0.183​
1952​
Assyria
111​
0.072​
1​
3​
0​
4​
0​
0.185​
0.187​
1518​
England
114​
0.07​
0​
7​
0​
0​
1​
0.208​
0.221​
2274​
Indonesia
128​
0.07​
1​
3​
0​
5​
0​
0.249​
0.249​
1923​
Ethiopia
134​
0.067​
5​
0​
0​
4​
0​
0.145​
0.147​
1345​
Denmark
106​
0.057​
1​
2​
1​
2​
0​
0.256​
0.27​
1952​
America
127​
0.055​
2​
3​
2​
0​
0​
0.287​
0.29​
2529​
France
111​
0.054​
2​
1​
1​
2​
0​
0.277​
0.283​
2400​
Rome
117​
0.051​
1​
3​
2​
0​
0​
0.279​
0.291​
2215​
Persia
138​
0.051​
3​
2​
1​
0​
1​
0.25​
0.259​
2058​
The Iroquois
102​
0.049​
0​
3​
1​
1​
0​
0.291​
0.301​
3080​
The Shoshone
114​
0.044​
2​
2​
0​
1​
0​
0.222​
0.219​
2059​
Mongolia
106​
0.038​
0​
0​
2​
2​
0​
0.232​
0.237​
1611​
The Huns
111​
0.036​
2​
0​
0​
1​
1​
0.24​
0.237​
1935​
The Aztecs
101​
0.02​
1​
0​
1​
0​
0​
0.259​
0.267​
2042​
Spain
122​
0.008​
1​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0.264​
0.264​
1795​


Spoiler Technology Research Times :

1715323775741.png




Spoiler Era Progression Times and Attainment :

1715323814699.png




Spoiler Policy Adoption and Winrates :

1715323910370.png




Spoiler Yield Sources by Era :

1715324011498.png

 
Last edited:
Spoiler Largest Instant/Handicap Yield Sources Breakdown :

Total average yields attained per erafrom that trigger type are displayed in the center of each cell. Below, the number of the number of times triggered and averagecontribution can be seen. Darker colors correspond to a higher share of yields in that era.
1715325563694.png

1715325579801.png



Spoiler World Congress Resolution Enact/Repeal Frequency :

1715326242718.png



Spoiler World Congress Resolution Proposal Frequency Across Games :

1715325706389.png



Spoiler World Congress Vote Deltas by Resolution :

Sentiment votes are simply 1=yea,-1=nay for passing; -1=yea,1=nay for repealing.
Note that these are the final result quantiles, NOT the total yeas on one direction and total nays on the other
1715325748396.png



Spoiler Religion Attainment Times :

1715325809212.png



Spoiler Pantheons :

1715325829709.png



Spoiler Founders Beliefs :

1715325850447.png



Spoiler Enhancer Beliefs :

1715325862637.png



Spoiler Reformation Beliefs :

1715325877803.png

 
Last edited:
I still have never played 4UC, but Carthage being the biggest winner is not at all surprising. Back when I first looked at the mod I thought "wow that's OP" when I saw the Carthage UB

interesting though that the overall balance appears to be (marginally) better
 
Last edited:
a few of the pantheons have astonishingly low win rates
springtime, purity, and spirit of the desert have a green part that is very small relative to the rest of it. And, surprisingly, god of the sea as well
 
I think there is a problem in the religious part :
There are 5 type of belief : Pantheon, Founder, Followers (you get 2 of them, one at founding, one at enhancing), Enhancer, Reformation
You have not made the Followers part and there is followers in both Founder an Enhancing.

Aaand I think I get it. Is this what AI pick when they found/enhance ?
 
Fewer Time victories, and more domination victories.
Slightly shorter games overall, but also eliminated sub-turn 300 wins.
Smoother overall win rates by civ, with more clustering around the midline. The lowest civ is also higher while the highest civ is lower.
Oh and also more content overall.

I think with this data the shoe is firmly on the other foot. Why Shouldn’t 4UC be integrated if it adds more stuff while also making the game more balanced and consistent?

I think with this the only real impediment is permissions and the work involved.
 
Last edited:
Aaand I think I get it. Is this what AI pick when they found/enhance ?
Must be. The alternative explanation are they come from Byzantium but the numbers are too high for that.

Edit: It's interesting Byzantium never won a cultural victory.

I think with this data the shoe is firmly on the other foot. Why Shouldn’t 4UC be integrated if it adds more stuff while also making the game more balanced and consistent?
Very much so. I don't feel 4UC gets anywhere near being out of scope, and the absence of any glaring balance issues confirms this. The way it slots onto the existing VP without taking away from it is the ideal form for a modmod that is to be integrated.
Compare with More Wonders--which I love and cherish--where a system gets totally overhauled. It's hard to see how this could ever win a supermajority when it completely changes key aspects of the wonders concept within the game.
 
Last edited:
Fewer Time victories, and more domination victories.
Slightly shorter games overall, but also eliminated sub-turn 300 wins.
Smoother overall win rates by civ, with more clustering around the midline. The lowest civ is also higher while the highest civ is lower.
Oh and also more content overall.

I think with this data the shoe is firmly on the other foot. Why Shouldn’t 4UC be integrated if it adds more stuff while also making the game more balanced and consistent?

I think with this the only real impediment is permissions and the work involved.
The DLL integration and AI, plus some of the more janky abilities (very subjective) are why I object to it.

Also way too many recon UUs!
 
Also way too many recon UUs!
With the polynesia change there will be 3 base VP recon UUs
4UC adds another 3: Greece, Inca, and Maya.
6 recon UUs out of 86. Calm down. :D
 
Is there any noticable difference in how fast victories come with 4UC, ie does the power it adds make the game go faster in number of turns?
 
There are victory timing box plots for with/without 4UC in the OP

Edit: check the victory type comparison tab
 
Last edited:
Very cool data as usual.

I would really love to see data decoupling AI flavours from abilities. I think it would be really interesting. I suspect that some of the worst AIs are being crippled by their flavours which somehow contrive to make them play ineffectively, moreso than their civ ability set (Aztecs for example are extremely powerful in human hands, with or without 4UC). By flavours I mean personalities, policy tendencies, expansionism tendencies etc (anything apart from the actual civ bonuses). This kind of data would be a great way to balance part of the game through AI stats, because it takes out a bunch of the variables. Plus it's balancing something that's specific to the AI (flavours). It would make other AI-based balancing more objective since these flavours could be balanced first/independently.

Edit: to be more clear, I mean doing AI games with all civ abilities turned off. Or the opposite way: AI games where all AI players have identical flavours/personalities.
 
Page 13 of Vern's report on the base game did indeed find that the AI war flavours and AI diplomacy flavours were strongly predictive of win rate.

For people unfamiliar with PCAs, 38% on a single principal component (the x axis) is enormous.
Spoiler :
1715665187183.png

 
Last edited:
Very cool data as usual.

I would really love to see data decoupling AI flavours from abilities. I think it would be really interesting. I suspect that some of the worst AIs are being crippled by their flavours which somehow contrive to make them play ineffectively, moreso than their civ ability set (Aztecs for example are extremely powerful in human hands, with or without 4UC). By flavours I mean personalities, policy tendencies, expansionism tendencies etc (anything apart from the actual civ bonuses). This kind of data would be a great way to balance part of the game through AI stats, because it takes out a bunch of the variables. Plus it's balancing something that's specific to the AI (flavours). It would make other AI-based balancing more objective since these flavours could be balanced first/independently.

Edit: to be more clear, I mean doing AI games with all civ abilities turned off. Or the opposite way: AI games where all AI players have identical flavours/personalities.
Exercise caution with interpreting this data. The flavor system has bugs and issues with it. In particular the AI handling grand strategy / victory pursuit needs an overhaul, and the non-diplomacy flavors' effects are not well understood.
 
Policy picker (and likely other pickers) needs to be reworked too. It's full of arbitrary numbers for each ability.
 
Two notes about these games is that they contain at least 2 bugs that affect civ balance:
- Austria’s great person rate bonus per marriage was doubled to 30%
- Polynesia’s ability to build fishing boats with embarked units was unusable by the AI.

Both of these bugs have now been fixed for later versions, but Read the stats for both of those civs with that knowledge in mind.
 
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