Alright I'm finally going to dig in on this. Is it a nerf, a buff? Time to try and suss it out. I am using a T234 game I ran recently as a comparison point to see how some of these things shake out.
Alright so first I've laid out the new and old side by side. The layout is that as you go down a column its left to right, top to bottom in the actual tree structure. This gives us a solid comparison to start with. I am using the old names to make it easier to compare.
The Opener
Looking at my current game I've got 15 strategic deposits my 11 city civ is using. I am working 12 scientists right now (max I could work is 33). So even looking at max scientists I would say the new version is missing out on raw science, especially when the 5% science is also dropped from the opener. I am also missing about 30 hammers, and gaining 12-33 culture in the exchange.
The big question is the GS Rate. We are getting that significantly earlier in the tree. How much does that benefit us? Lets call it 2 full GS. It is earlier and more powerful, but also the more GS you get, the steeper that curve climbs. I think 2 GS might actually be an overestimate, but lets try it out.
My civ has 1100 SPT right now, so 5% of that = 55 SPT. 5% is not applied to every bit of science but we will overestimate for ease. Than throw in the 45 science from strategics. So ~100 SPT.
Lets say 2 GS earlier in the game is ~5500 each, or 11000. GS has high variability but I think that's reasonable for all of my games. We assume the 12 science from scientists. So the 100 SPT - 11 = 89 SPT to "catchup" to my two GS.
So 11000 / 89 = 123 turns. Putting me in the 350ish mark to catch up. So that's not insane, it is later in the game but we still have game to play at that point, and it really comes down to how good those GS I get are.
Verdict: Comparable. I think we are in the same general territory here roughly.
Scaler: New is definately a nerf here. Based on my ~1100 science output I am losing out on 22 SPT.
Scientific Revolution (THE BIGGEST CHANGE) The biggest change BY FAR is that observatories are now just straightup an option at astronomy. So everyone will have a 4 science building at that point in the game. We also lose out on the new Scientist slots. That right there is basically a ~50% nerf to GS rate in the late game as well as ~12-14 ish SPT per city in scentitist science. This is not a small nerf, this is a MASSIVE CHANGE.
So basically we will get a better GS rate in the opener, by the second policy our GS rate will drop significantly in comparison. BUT of course we now get a +25% GPP boost with golden ages.
So where does it shake out? Overall I still say its a nerf even if you get permanent Golden Ages, and especially if you don't. But how much, phew its hard to say.
Looking to the rest of the policy. I am currently working 54 specalists in my game. That's 108 gold and 54 hammers. That more than makes up for the opener loss in hammers and is honestly a pretty sizable amount of gold, that is nothing to sneeze out.
The snow science was never a big thing to me. The jungle science will definately hurt certain map placements but in some games it was completely irrelevant.
Verdict: Overall the nerf to GS rate will be a big impact to the tree's science going forward. But I do think the tree is more rounded by the large gold and hammer influx. So less science more hammers.
Enlightenment: Still the most dippable policy in the game, can come in from any tree and grab a tech towards the late game. Its still one of rationalism signature boosts.
The +100% production to public schools might have SOME benefit, but its still too late in the tree (those things really need to be openers to have weight). But the public school bonu sis basically a +3 food, +2 culture bump per city overall. So a nice little buff.
Verdict: Straight buff on this one, not a crazy one though.
Free Thought : First time our old and new tree have a different policy in the slot.
The big +10% science during GA is the same. Is -1 needs to all better than -5 religious distress? Not sure, in generally I would say its a bit weaker, -5 religious I found notable in a lot of games but it does depend.
Now the acamemy versus the village. Villages are much more common tahn academies BUT sometimes I'm no longer working villages in favor of better tiles. So while acaademies are less prevalent I am likely working every one of them. I think on the whole its mostly a wash, but it does concentrate more production power into the capital.
Verdict: Roughly equal
Rights of Man
Here we get a boost time big boost in yields. In my game about ~3200 culture and ~3200 GAP. So like 1/5 of a GW and a G Artist as a ballpark....or 2/5 of a GP. The happiness is an interesting question here because the Hotel and Museum are not gimme buildings, and may be skipped in some plays. So you do have to put in some effort for the happiness. Compared to the old side getting -1 all needs, happiness is probably a bit better in the old tree.
We are also losing out on the GS bulb +25% for a short time. That's probbably worth about .25 or .5 a GS, enough to compensate for the boost above, so somewhat of a wash.
Verdict: Roughly equal
Empiricism: The food reductor on speclaist is a bit weaker than the old +1 food per citizen, especially with the old +25% growth But that hammer boost is VERY significant, that is actually a pretty sizable boost in hamemrs, about 80 in my current game, more likely 100 once I actually got this tech.
When we are getting something like ~50-75ish CPT for happiness. But we are losing out on like 20% science in the capital and like 9-12% in some of the big secondary cities. That's a lot of lost science, easily 40-50 SPT.
Verdict: Stronger in the new version overall, but definately a loss of Science.
Finisher: About the same, noting really to note here.
Overall: So where do I come down to? Nerf or a Buff?
When it comes to Science, definitely a nerf. Like actually a LOT of science has been removed from this tree. You are not going to racing ahead in science with this version of rationalism.
On the flip side, notable boosts to culture, gold, and especially hammers. The old rationalsim you would often race ahead but then struggle to keep up in infrastructure. This version of the tree will be more balanced, slower tech but faster infrustructure and more pop get fueling yields.
Is it "better"? This will definately be a more generalist tree, and its an interesting question if this encroches on industry, not because they are doing the exact same thing but because the yield balance is more similar between the two. I don't know if that's good, but its definately dfferent.
So how am I voting? Phew, I'm still not sure. I think it is probably a step forward, it is likely a more balanced tree...so I think I'm going to vote yes. I think there were better ways to go about this, simplier cleaner versions....but this tree I believe is an overall improvement.