The only thing I'm trying to say here is that a SE and lightbulbing is better when tech trading is on than when it is off.
And, the only thing I'm trying to say is that a SE and lightbulbing is better when tech trading is off than when it is on.
(ps that's not the only thing you're trying to say. It sure seems like you're also trying to say that a CE is always a better choice when trading is off.)
I don't think this changes the conclusion.
It definitely changes the situation. Whether it changes the situation
enough to affect the conclusion, that's the question.
I suggested that a good player could probably trade one tech for five in a situation where an AI could trade one tech for three, and you didn't disagree.
Ok, I disagree. Why don't you present some evidence for this theory, and we can try to see whether it has any merit.
I am assuming that you are making those five tech trades with civs that you are not directly competing with. If you are making disadvantageous trades with a civ that might win the space race, that is hurting your relative advantage versus that civ only, but is helping your relative advantage versus all the others. Likewise, you do not want to make a disadvantageous trade of military techs with a civ that you will fight soon.
Hunh. That's a fine argument, on the face of it. But look deeper... lightbulbing to get techs to trade only works and only is valid up through the midgame. It only works early because later, you are (1) getting only ~3k beakers per GP, techs cost many times that, and your regular research income will be such that the lightbulb won't have much impact at all. In addition, you're getting fewer and fewer GP because each one costs more and more GPP.
So, let's restrict ourselves to talking about up through the early midgame. Who is going to be rivals for the space race? Kind of hard to tell. Trading techs to
any AI is going to make them a potential rival. As for military, easy enough to say "don't trade a military tech to Monty". In reality, any AI will attack you if the military disparity is in their favor.
To top it all off, the AIs pass techs around like the clap. Trade to one, pretty soon they'll all have it. We have no control over that process and it will happen. I simply don't buy the "selective trading" argument.
It's usually a better thing to have a good tech soon than to have a better tech later. Scientist lightbulbs will get you to chemistry and grenadiers quickly compared to researching, but it still takes time and money. What if I need macemen or trebuchets ASAP and can't wait for grenadiers? Scientist lightbulbs won't help me get machinery or engineering.
With tech trading on, I can lightbulb whatever and trade for what I want. With tech trading off, I'm stuck with what it gives me even if I need something else right away.
In other words, if I'm using a great scientist to lightbulb paper in order to get to chemistry, I'm using up a great person now for a payoff later. The best thing about the lightbulb is the immediate payoff, and I'm not getting any. I might as well settle the scientist or work cottages in the first place and use the additional research on something I do want soon.
You're simply talking about the difference between tech trading on and tech trading off. Yes, those are differences. That doesn't make them better.
Say you lightbulb X (with tech trading off). That allows you to get Y earlier than you would if you had to research the hard way. Meanwhile, you can spend your specialist beakers to get Z, or you can spend them to get Y. If Z is your goal, then I agree the lightbulb didn't help you. Does that mean the lightbulb won't be of use when you want to get Y? Hardly. Does that mean the lightbulb didn't help you win the game? Again, hardly. Also, keep in mind that if you know you want Z, you have the option of prioritizing other GPP than scientists. (Your example was Machinery or Engineering, which Great Engineers can lightbulb.)
Bottom line, your assumption is that when no lightbulbs are available, a CE can research Z faster than a SE can research Z. That is not necessarily true. In fact, it is frequently
not true, especially in the early game (which is when we're talking about).
There are valid alternatives to lightbulbing, and I think lightbulbing is at its weakest when it doesn't help with tech trading. Definitely an interesting discussion, though.
Respectively: agreed, not agreed, and absolutely agree!
Wodan