A few months on, how is your country doing with the economic slump/collapse?

[RedRalph]

Really starting to hit here. Rather than quote figures, I'm going to just give anecdotes, but feel freee to bring stats if thats your thing.

For the first time in years, its becoming quite common to meet people who have been laid off. Its happened a few of my friends.

Poles are going home. No point in being poor here when they can be poor in Poland.

Town is really quiet, freakishly so.

Govt cuts are on the horizon, big ones. Plus we now have a levy on our pay.

Every single advertisment refers to the recession. Its bizarre. Everything now advertises itself in the context of saving money.

You'd be shocked at the amount of building sites which have stopped when construction isnt finished. Its depressing.

 

[Mise]

Yeah, most people are scared they'll lose their jobs. Britain's probably gonna be hit worse than any EU country or the US. And my company's gonna shed 25% of its staff....... =/

 

[El_Machinae]

It's starting to hurt. I'm starting to know people who're seeing layoffs and just waiting for their own axe.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Haven't noticed any of it. (Personally)

 

[ArneHD]

The government is preparing to spend more than expected returns of the oil fund due to the slump, but otherwise things are fine. Time ran an article talking about how the shipping industry is suffering, but shipping in Norway seems to be fine apparently.

 

[JerichoHill]

Collapse? No. Hardly. Recession? Sure. About average.





As for my experience here in DC, most of my friends are insulated because they're either government or essential government contractors. I have one friend who is unemployed and is running out of unemployment benefits, but he's been in and out of work for 3 years running, so his situation is pretty much his own darn fault. I have a very good friend who was laid off christmas eve. Because he has such a large network (not that he's an amazing worker, he's an average A/V Tech, he already has offers and will be employed shortly.

 

[RedRalph]

JH, while I admit you have access to and understanding of economics that I dont, my understanding is that this one is far worse and far more widespread than any other since the war. Given that, isnt it sort of short-sighted to compare it to other postwar ones and assume thats how it will pan out?

 

[Mowque]

Lots of places around here are laying off but my job (and my families jobs) all work in the coal industry, which is booming right now. Hopefully we are safe. We are actually hiring!

 

[Brighteye]

Prices have risen, so my savings are worth less. Interest rates have slumped, so my savings are worth less.
Everyone wants to cut interest rates even more so that my savings are worth even less, just to save a few jobs that are surplus to the companies' requirements (or they wouldn't be under threat).

 

[fugazi]

snip

Great information, thank you

 

[amadeus]

Collapse? No. Hardly. Recession? Sure. About average.

Now I just heard Obama say that this is the worst recession we've been in since the Great Depression... is that at all true, JH? You've got the charts, you're the new Ross Perot.

 

[Shekwan]

The US has it's highest unemployment since 1945 and its budget deficit is going to more than double this year IIRC. Seems pretty bad over there.

Ireland seems to be nearly the worst hit too; at least I'll be able to regale my grandkids about the poverty and the hunger just like my parents and grandparents. I was getting worried for a while I'd never get that essential Irish experience.

 

[JerichoHill]

JH, while I admit you have access to and understanding of economics that I dont, my understanding is that this one is far worse and far more widespread than any other since the war. Given that, isnt it sort of short-sighted to compare it to other postwar ones and assume thats how it will pan out?

The Media has made it appear worse than it currently is. Could it get worse? Sure. But the comparisons over here right now are more now gearing towards 1990-1991 rather than 1979-1980. There is a huge qualitative difference there. Note that I am not denying our economic situation, I clearly stated we entered a recession in January months before the NBER dated it as such. It seems bad because of the huge amount of growth we've had, but we don't have outrageous unemployment and our GDP is not dinged up too badly, and inflation isn't out of control. The 79-80 recession was MUCH worse than this, and 73-75 was worse than that, and the GD was worse than both of those combined.

The charts I presented are time-based, so the comparison is accurate. As you can see, we're really somewhere around the "median" recession.

 

[JerichoHill]

Now I just heard Obama say that this is the worst recession we've been in since the Great Depression... is that at all true, JH? You've got the charts, you're the new Ross Perot.

Obama is incorrect on this statement. You would be hard pressed to get the Average Jane and Joe who lived through the 79-80 recession and the gas shortage and the rationing in the years before that to agree.

Look, I like many of the moves Obama is making, but he's clearly exaggerating the recession for political reasons here. Party he's setting expectations low to reset confidence, which is shrewd, but that statement is not factual.

 

[Atticus]

My friend lost his job (but got a new one), it might not be due the recession though. In the news governement tells it's not going to lower taxes afterall (which is good) and that public health care is in danger (which is bad).

In september economists, specialists and politicians all told in the news papers that there will definetly not be depression in Finland, and as a matter of fact foreign recession might boost Finnish ecomomy. Needles to say that any sane person deduced from these statements that there is going to be a depression probably a bad one.

 

[Mirc]

Haven't noticed any of it. (Personally)

Same here.

The only thing, which might be completely unrelated, is that our currency has gone down to a historic low compared to the euro (4.22, apparently, biggest decrease from what I can remember, used to be 3.6 only 2-3 months ago).

 

[Benefactor]

Britain is doing pretty badly apparently, and its supposed to get much worse in the near future. Personally I havn't noticed it at all in daily life and were I work is busier than normal.

 

[Patroklos]

My life is about the same, though I have taken advantage of the slashed consumer prices. I did rearrange some of retirement plans, but I do that all the time anyway.

I only know of one person who lost their home, and honestly she was an idiot who had it coming regardless.

 

[RedRalph]

The Media has made it appear worse than it currently is. Could it get worse? Sure. But the comparisons over here right now are more now gearing towards 1990-1991 rather than 1979-1980. There is a huge qualitative difference there. Note that I am not denying our economic situation, I clearly stated we entered a recession in January months before the NBER dated it as such. It seems bad because of the huge amount of growth we've had, but we don't have outrageous unemployment and our GDP is not dinged up too badly, and inflation isn't out of control. The 79-80 recession was MUCH worse than this, and 73-75 was worse than that, and the GD was worse than both of those combined.

The charts I presented are time-based, so the comparison is accurate. As you can see, we're really somewhere around the "median" recession.

I know they are time based but they never before had such a widespread recession (post war), plus the how economies function in relation to international trade is quite different now, is it not? For one thing the safety valve of immigration to flee unemployment is no longer here as there is nowhere much better to go. In the 80s we could go to US, UK, etc. No point in doing that now.

Out of a matter of interest, I know you arent a fortune teller but do you think, just speculating, it will get worse?

 

[emzie]

Economically, I haven't noticed anything in my life, but I live in a rather insulated city much like JH does. Politically, it's been... interesting.