A Germany including Austria

[RedRalph]

How would history have been different if Bismarck hadnt managed to exclude Austria and Germany had eventually been reunited including Austria?

 

[Arwon]

Well the most obvious question is what happens to all the non-German and mixed-ethnicity areas of the Habsburg Empire when Austria enters an explicitly German nation-state. This is a state which defines itself in terms of the German nation, and excludes all the non-Germans within its borders.

 

[RedRalph]

Well the most obvious question is what happens to all the non-German and mixed-ethnicity areas of the Habsburg Empire when Austria enters an explicitly German nation-state. This is a state which defines itself in terms of the German nation, and excludes all the non-Germans within its borders.

Yeah, I wonder if Austria would have left the dual monarcy in order to take Germany on, or would they have attempted to merge the two entities?

 

[Lone Wolf]

Well the most obvious question is what happens to all the non-German and mixed-ethnicity areas of the Habsburg Empire when Austria enters an explicitly German nation-state

Possibly the same status as non-German areas of Germany itself.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

Is this even possible? It's rare/difficult for a unified state to be ruled from 2 centers/elites i.e. Berlin and Vienna in this case. How will such a state work, in practical terms?

 

[RedRalph]

Is this even possible? It's rare/difficult for a unified state to be ruled from 2 centers/elites i.e. Berlin and Vienna in this case. How will such a state work, in practical terms?

I dont know a huge amount about German unification but I do know it was either going to be unified under Prussia or Austria, obviously we know how it worked out with Prussia but I'm just speculating how Austria might have done it and how it might have been if they had?

 

[Knight-Dragon]

In that case, a united Germany under Austrian leadership will have to exclude the Prussians IMO. The Prussians just aren't going to roll over and play dead, and let the Vienna elite lead the entity, so the Austrians will try to exclude them from the internal equation.

In which case, the Germany that ensues will very likely be much weaker, as well as having a powerful potential enemy state to the north i.e. Prussia...

 

[RedRalph]

In that case, a united Germany under Austrian leadership will have to exclude the Prussians IMO. The Prussians just aren't going to roll over and play dead, and let the Vienna elite lead the entity, so the Austrians will try to exclude them from the internal equation.

In which case, the Germany that ensues will very likely be much weaker, as well as having a powerful potential enemy state to the north i.e. Prussia...

And probably less militaristic. Given how fragile Austria Hungary was, it may not have lasted long either, hard to see Hungarians and Croats being delighted with that arrangement. but I think Austria & all the German minors would have been a match for Prussia alone...

 

[Knight-Dragon]

It would not be sufficient to be a match for Prussia, since the German state will still have to compete with France to the west and Russia to the east.

Interesting to see how WW1 will play out, in such a scenario...

 

[RedRalph]

It would not be sufficient to be a match for Prussia, since the German state will still have to compete with France to the west and Russia to the east.

Interesting to see how WW1 will play out, in such a scenario...

Well, maybe they would have taken Prussia in tghe late 1800s or somehting... WW1 would likely not have happened or been totally different than IRL

 

[nonconformist]

You're ignoring the immense amount of distate that the catholics and Lutherians had for each other, Ralph.

 

[RedRalph]

You're ignoring the immense amount of distate that the catholics and Lutherians had for each other, Ralph.

didnt stop Bavaria and Prussia uniting, did it?

 

[nonconformist]

True, but Bavaria IIRC, had a significant Lutherian population.

And to be honest, Bavaria I think sided against Prussia in the Austro-Hungarian war.

 

[RedRalph]

True, but Bavaria IIRC, had a significant Lutherian population.

And to be honest, Bavaria I think sided against Prussia in the Austro-Hungarian war.

Maybe, but it shows religious divides werent enough to prevent unification. there might have been a reverse Kulturkampf in my scenario

 

[uppi]

didnt stop Bavaria and Prussia uniting, did it?

Not without a large bribe to fund the mad Bavarian king's castle projects.

The only way for a united Germany with Austria (without deviating too far from the actual history) would be one of Austria or Prussia disintegrating during the 1866 war. For example if the Prussians had invaded Vienna (would have been possible, but risky) and broken up Austria, the German part of Austria could have been integrated into the new German state about to emerge.

 

[RedRalph]

Not without a large bribe to fund the mad Bavarian king's castle projects.

The only way for a united Germany with Austria (without deviating too far from the actual history) would be one of Austria or Prussia disintegrating during the 1866 war. For example if the Prussians had invaded Vienna (would have been possible, but risky) and broken up Austria, the German part of Austria could have been integrated into the new German state about to emerge.

Hmmm, thats an interesting idea... I wonder what would have happened to the rest of the Empire had that happened

 

[Sharwood]

Hmmm, thats an interesting idea... I wonder what would have happened to the rest of the Empire had that happened

Civil War, invasion by the other powers in the region, German and Russian attempts to grab some territory. All-in-all, hell.

 

[uppi]

Hmmm, thats an interesting idea... I wonder what would have happened to the rest of the Empire had that happened

Hungary would probably continue being ruled by the Habsburgs, trying to control the rest of the Empire, but ultimately failing in the non-Hungarian parts. Czech territory would probably have ended up in German hands, Slovakia would be divided between Russia and Hungary.

The interesting question is what would have happened to the Balkans. I don't really see the Prussians having much interest in that area. So either the balkanisation of the Balkan would have happened earlier, or the Russians would have moved in. In such a scenario the German-Russian relations would be interesting. With the Balkan Question resolved in Russians favor, there might be not many reasons anymore for them to be at each other's throats. WWI would have played out very differently.

Of course this is all wild speculation...

 

[Dachs]

The only way for a united Germany with Austria (without deviating too far from the actual history) would be one of Austria or Prussia disintegrating during the 1866 war. For example if the Prussians had invaded Vienna (would have been possible, but risky) and broken up Austria, the German part of Austria could have been integrated into the new German state about to emerge.

Yeah, what he said.

The problem with Austrian unification of Germany is that the Habsburgs never really wanted a unified Germany, even with themselves at its head, after about 1648 or so, something what was virtually set in stone after the Great Turkish War. Austria was essentially attempting to maintain the status quo in the Confederation during the 1866 war, a status quo that involved Austria being the head of a divided group of Germans because they were a divided group of Germans. Co-opting the banner of Nationality would be virtually disastrous for the Transleithanian territories in the Habsburg empire, or for at least the Habsburg control over same...

Hmmm, thats an interesting idea... I wonder what would have happened to the rest of the Empire had that happened

Mostly what uppi said. Hungary either gets a Catholic Habsburg king, within the territories of the Kingdom of Hungary or maybe plus some Galicia. This is assuming that the Habsburgs don't get chased out entirely and replaced with the powerful Magyar magnates, to form a sort of oligarchic republic a la the plan of the revolt of '66. (Depends on what Russia does; considering the outcome of the Alvensleben Convention and the proposal made by Russia there, it's hard to resist the speculation that they'd get in on the landgrab, too.) Austria and Bohemia to Prussia-Germany, no question about it. Trentino is more difficult, considering Prussia's ally Italy went to war to help them gain it. As is Istria. I don't see anything good coming of that territorial question, and it would be interesting to see if von Bismarck gives the finger to the German nationalists' Grossdeutschland plan or to the Italian nationalists' irredenta...

Hungary would probably continue being ruled by the Habsburgs, trying to control the rest of the Empire, but ultimately failing in the non-Hungarian parts. Czech territory would probably have ended up in German hands, Slovakia would be divided between Russia and Hungary.

Since the borders of the Kingdom of Hungary are so convenient, I don't see them slicing it up much. Galicia is an awful big territory for Russia to eat. Geographically, too, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for Russia to make a play for parts of Slovakia.

The interesting question is what would have happened to the Balkans. [...] So either the balkanisation of the Balkan would have happened earlier, or the Russians would have moved in. In such a scenario the German-Russian relations would be interesting. With the Balkan Question resolved in Russians favor, there might be not many reasons anymore for them to be at each other's throats. WWI would have played out very differently.

If the Habsburgs take over Hungary, I could see them making a play for the Balkans, to balance out the theoretically disproportionate power of their Hungarian subjects in such a state. A Hungarian Republic would be less willing to make such a play due to the probable exacerbation of ethnic tensions upon incorporating large numbers of Slavic subjects. But at the same time, Hungary can't just sit idly by and do nothing while the Russians break up the Ottoman Empire into a chain of Slavic sockpuppet states. They will probably partner with the British and French to prop up the Ottoman Empire. This may forestall the Russo-Turkish War of (OTL) 1877-8 - in which case Alexander will have a very interesting relationship with his Slavophile buddies - or it may widen the confrontation as Russia seeks to pull in new allies.

Of course this is all wild speculation...

I actually wrote a TL off of a somewhat similar scenario, which didn't involve the Prussians pressing the attack on Austria in 1866 but rather the French needing to make an international power play in Europe (the ACW was resolved early, so Napoleon left Mexico) in the aftermath of the Seven Weeks' War, which exacerbated tensions and forced a grand European conflict in the 1870s. There are some parts in which one can label the scenario wild speculation, and obviously there must be limits on what we guess at, but some extrapolation is safe and possible.

 

[Lockesdonkey]

A more interesting (and realistic) case would be if the union hadn't been prevented by the Allies in 1919-20. As I recall, there was strong support in both Austria and Germany for the union, but enthusiasm started to peter out and then finally the Allies killed the scheme entirely.