A study of espionage mission

Oystein

Warlord
Joined
Mar 12, 2003
Messages
184
Location
Norway, Oslo
Prices:
Parameters:
dist - distance from actual city or capital to your nearest city
pop - size of actual city or capital
level - level of settlement, 1 for town, 2 for city and 3 for metropol
opp_cult - opponents culture
your_cult - your culture
techs - number of opponents techs
units - total number of opponents units
shield - number of shields the opponent have invested

Factors found in editor:
base - base cost
mapsize - average of width and height
techrate - factor based on world size

Code:
[b][size=3]
Mission          Base      Cost formula[/size][/b]
Build an Embassy       20     dist*level + base + pop
Investigate City       10     dist*level + base * pop
Steal Technology       10     dist*level + base * techs*techrate/100
Steal World Map         1     dist*level + base * mapsize
Plant Spy              60     dist*level + base
Steal Plans            10     dist*level + base * unit
Initiate Propaganda   100     dist*level + base * pop * (1 + opp_cult/your_cult)
Sabotage Production    10     dist*level + base * shield
Expose Enemy Spy       80     dist*level + base
For the misson where there is a choice of risk, multiply by 3/2 for carefully and 2 for safely.


Success chance
Build an Embassy and
Investigate City
Always succeed

Plant Spy
[Embassy 50%]
[Conscript spy 20%]
Regular spy 50%
Veteran spy 60%
[Elite spy 75%]
If a spy plant fails you will get a flag saying so. You cant plant a spy when flagged. There is a chance of 1/3 for the flag to disappear each turn. Failing other spy mission, does not trigger the flag. You can plant a spy the same turn your spy has been exposed by a failed mission.

Steal Technology,
Steal World Map,
Steal Plans
and
Sabotage Production
Code:
[b][size=3]Chance of getting away in %:[/size][/b]
                Immidiate   Carefully     Safely
Embassy            40           55          65
Regular spy        60           75          85
Veteran spy        70           85          95
Its 80% chance of succeeding if not getting caught so:
Code:
[b][size=3]Chance of succeding in %:[/size][/b]
                Immidiate   Carefully     Safely
Embassy            32           44          52
Regular spy        48           60          68
Veteran spy        56           68          76
Expose Enemy Spy
Same probabilities as above, except you always fail if the enemy does not have a spy.

Initiate Propaganda
You will never get caught

The chance of persuading each citizen are:

spy + government + culture - 5 * units - improvment - capital + nationality

Where:
spy - 10 for veteran spies, 0 for regular
improvment - 20 if the city has courthouse, 0 otherwise (This is not cumultative)
capital - 40 for the capital, 0 otherwise
units - number of units in garison
nationality - 20 for your own citizen, 0 otherwise.

The government and culture factor are found in the editor.
Code:
[b][size=3]Government modifier[/size][/b]
[b]         Anarchy Desp  Monarchy Comm   Rep    Demo  Fascism Feud[/b]
[b]Anarchy[/b]      0      0      0      0      0   [  0]     0      0
[b]Despotism[/b]   15      0    -10    -15    -20   [-30]     0      0
[b]Monarchy[/b]    20     15      0     -5    -10   [-25]     0      0
[b]Communism[/b]   25     20      5      0    -10   [-20]     0      0
[b]Republic[/b]    30     25     10      8      0   [ -5]     0      0
[b]Democracy[/b]   35     30     20     10      5   [  0]     0      0
[b]Fascism[/b]      0      0     -5    -20    -10   [-10]     0      0
[b]Feudalism[/b]   20     15      0    -10    -10   [-20]   -25      0
Democracy is immune against propaganda. But for some reason other governments have a modifier against demo. I have no idea why, but I included it just for fun.
Code:
[b][size=3]Culture factors[/size][/b]
Disdainful     3
Dismissive     5
Unimpressed   10
Impressed by  20
Admires of    25
In awe of     30
If at least 3/4 of the citizen are persuading, the city will flip. This makes it easier to flip a city of size 4n, than a city of size 4n-1, and in some situation even 4n-2. If the chance of confusing 1 citizen is greater than 1/3, it will be easier to flip a city of size 4 than 2.

If the city does not flip, the persuaded citizen will be confused. Each will give 1 unhappy face. The number of confused citizen are reduced by 1 for each turn. It is not cumultative, if there allready are confused citizen in the city, it will be raised to the number of persuaded citizen or stay the same.

The flip chance are not affected by previous propaganda.
 

Longasc

Deity
Joined
Jun 18, 2003
Messages
2,763
Impressive! - and useful, too, Oystein.

Just a question, how did you derive this information?

Could you please explain a bit what the modifier against Democracy does??? Sorry, did not get it, for what is it useful - government choice surely not.
 

Pfeffersack

Deity
Joined
May 10, 2003
Messages
3,148
Location
Germany
A really helpful article.Impressive work ! :goodjob:

Oystein said:
...
Plant Spy
Regular spy 50%
Veteran spy 60%
If a spy mission fails you will get a flag saying so. You cant plant a spy when flagged. There is a chance of 1/3 for the flag to disappear each turn.
...

Some questions: What flag do you mean? The only thing I see is a pop-up which gives the result.And means "you can't plant a spy", you are prevented from trying it or you fail everytime you try? And most important: is there a way to see if you are still "flagged"? (I assume the flag is only for the civ you try to plant the spy, correct?)
Sorry for all the questions and thank you for answering! :)
 

bed_head7

Deity
Joined
Jun 16, 2004
Messages
2,494
Thanks. I was always confused by the fact that to establish an embassy with a backward civ on the other side of the world would cost a fortune, but now I see backwardness and the size of the whole civilization have nothing to do with cost.
 

Oystein

Warlord
Joined
Mar 12, 2003
Messages
184
Location
Norway, Oslo
Pfeffersack said:
Some questions: What flag do you mean? The only thing I see is a pop-up which gives the result.And means "you can't plant a spy", you are prevented from trying it or you fail everytime you try? And most important: is there a way to see if you are still "flagged"? (I assume the flag is only for the civ you try to plant the spy, correct?)
The flag is just a mark in the save file saying that a spymission resently failed (Your assumation is correct, 1 flag for each civ). You can still try planting spies, but you will fail. Ever tried to plant a spy 100 times in one turn? You will fail each time because of the flag. If you wait 1 turn there is 33.3% chance for the flag to disapear, so 16.7% chance of success for a regular spy. If you wait 2 turns the flag has a chance of (2/3)^2 of still beeing there, giving a total chance of 27.8% planting a spy.
 

Oystein

Warlord
Joined
Mar 12, 2003
Messages
184
Location
Norway, Oslo
Longasc said:
Just a question, how did you derive this information?

Could you please explain a bit what the modifier against Democracy does??? Sorry, did not get it, for what is it useful - government choice surely not.
I cant see the reason for modifier against demo. Maybe they set the modifiers before they decided that demo should be immune against propaganda?
 

JackRules

incompertus vapulus
Joined
Apr 1, 2002
Messages
216
Location
the back 9
I have only recently started to use spies, so I don't know alot about how they work. What is the difference between "regular" and "veteran" spies? How does a regular spy become a veteran? Thanks.
 

Grille

panel insect
Joined
Dec 19, 2002
Messages
2,709
Location
Kiel, Germany
Great info, especially the flag thing.:goodjob:

I assume the AI gets flagged as well when getting caught?

Also I wonder if the flag is set for me if the AI (or a human in MP) succesfully exposes my spy (feels like sort of a failed mission of my 'Gweeto').

'dist' uses the usual measurement in steps of 1(1.5) per 'x'('+')tile?
 

Oystein

Warlord
Joined
Mar 12, 2003
Messages
184
Location
Norway, Oslo
Grille said:
I assume the AI gets flagged as well when getting caught?
Yes, I think there is no difference between human and AI.

Grille said:
Also I wonder if the flag is set for me if the AI (or a human in MP) succesfully exposes my spy (feels like sort of a failed mission of my 'Gweeto').
No, I just found out that the flag only get set after failed planting attempt. Other failed misson has no effect. (First post is corrected)

Greebley said:
So the enemy government type plays no role? I thought I saw players stealing during anarchy because they thought the chances were higher.
I have also heard of that. But I cant find any effect of enemy government except for propaganda.
 

Kalach

Infantry Specialist
Joined
Jul 27, 2004
Messages
122
Location
Australia
Great article :)
I'm sure I've had a lot more success planting spies during their anarchy, and minimal success if they are communist/fascist :hmm:
 

earthguido

Warlord
Joined
Jun 22, 2004
Messages
233
Location
Argentina
Great Article!

I am still a long way from Emperor or Deity, but I will surely keep this in mind for when I reach that moment.
 
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