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Ahmadinejad "wins" Iran presidential election

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Abaddon, Jun 13, 2009.

  1. Whomp

    Whomp Keep Calm and Carry On Retired Moderator

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  2. Shylock

    Shylock Hey smiling strange

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    Drone riot. :lol:
     
  3. Imperialmajesty

    Imperialmajesty Emperor

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    Alright, I found the pertinent poll statistics.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_presidential_election,_2009#cite_note-IRIBPolls0317-50

    It now seems obvious that this was a coup attempt. With, or perhaps without the consent of the ayatollah. All those that are in this thread that believe that this election was not rigged have blinders on.

    A functioning democracy does not shut down communications with the outside world after an election.

    All those who truly believe this election was not rigged have abdicated reason and have lost a serious amount of credibility.
     
  4. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    Nobody with half a brain would suggest that Iran is a functioning democracy...
    The repression we're witnessing in Iran right now seems worse than anything Brazil experienced during the military dictatorship of 64-85.
     
  5. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    Both for an alleged fraud organized by the government and for blocks on the internet also organized, there's evidence that all this was very... chaotic. This little blog entry shows internet traffic being disrupted on every international link except the one which both Iran and a close ally (Turkey) fully control. Odd?
    Whatever happens inside Iran, others will be poised outside to explore - and try to channel.

    There's also the odd numbers for the results, almost inviting suspicions of fraud. I'm sure that there's more than one side playing with the events there.
     
  6. Imperialmajesty

    Imperialmajesty Emperor

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    You would be surprised. Granted, nobody here is actually saying Iran is a democracy, but come on, people here are certainly soft peddling the brutality and insanity of the Iranian regime.
     
  7. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    Well there is some room to debate just how democratic Iran is. Clearly it is not some North Korea, but I don't think anyone here would suggest it is anywhere close to a functioning democracy, especially after everything we've seen recently.

    -----

    My personal opinion is that meaningful change in Iran is impossible while it remains the Islamic Republic of Iran. Khatami accomplished nothing, and I don't think this Mousavi fellow would either. Khamenei and his medieval clerics need to go.
     
  8. Imperialmajesty

    Imperialmajesty Emperor

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    Mousavi? I hate the guy, he is a murderous thug who actually has more blood on his hands then the current president.
     
  9. zenspiderz

    zenspiderz Just some bloke..

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    All this is eeriely like all those 'colour revolutions' which later turned out to be foriegn backed coups disguised as 'revolutions'. I don't think it will work in Iran though dispite all the unpleasentness. Ahmadinejad does have a pretty huge support base and the majority of Iranians are pretty wide awake to the tricks certain foreign governments get up to so not enough people will be suckered into believing the election was rigged (even if it was). My guess for what its worth.
     
  10. zenspiderz

    zenspiderz Just some bloke..

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    The irony is so many reformists are clerics themselves, rafsanjani, khatami, kharoubi... On the other hand there are no clerics at all in the principalist camp since khomeini advised that clerics shouldn't get involved in goverment. Could be you don't understand iranian pollitcs at all?
     
  11. CCA

    CCA Emperor

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    Saturday, June 13, 2009
    Stealing the Iranian Election

    Top Pieces of Evidence that the Iranian Presidential Election Was Stolen

    1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.

    2. Ahmadinejad is claimed to have taken Tehran by over 50%. Again, he is not popular in the cities, even, as he claims, in the poor neighborhoods, in part because his policies have produced high inflation and high unemployment. That he should have won Tehran is so unlikely as to raise real questions about these numbers.

    3. It is claimed that cleric Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidate, received 320,000 votes, and that he did poorly in Iran's western provinces, even losing in Luristan. He is a Lur and is popular in the west, including in Kurdistan. Karoubi received 17 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential elections in 2005. While it is possible that his support has substantially declined since then, it is hard to believe that he would get less than one percent of the vote. Moreover, he should have at least done well in the west, which he did not.

    4. Mohsen Rezaie, who polled very badly and seems not to have been at all popular, is alleged to have received 670,000 votes, twice as much as Karoubi.

    5. Ahmadinejad's numbers were fairly standard across Iran's provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations.

    6. The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged results.

    I am aware of the difficulties of catching history on the run. Some explanation may emerge for Ahmadinejad's upset that does not involve fraud. For instance, it is possible that he has gotten the credit for spreading around a lot of oil money in the form of favors to his constituencies, but somehow managed to escape the blame for the resultant high inflation.

    But just as a first reaction, this post-election situation looks to me like a crime scene. And here is how I would reconstruct the crime.

    As the real numbers started coming into the Interior Ministry late on Friday, it became clear that Mousavi was winning. Mousavi's spokesman abroad, filmmaker Mohsen Makhbalbaf, alleges that the ministry even contacted Mousavi's camp and said it would begin preparing the population for this victory.

    The ministry must have informed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has had a feud with Mousavi for over 30 years, who found this outcome unsupportable. And, apparently, he and other top leaders had been so confident of an Ahmadinejad win that they had made no contingency plans for what to do if he looked as though he would lose.

    They therefore sent blanket instructions to the Electoral Commission to falsify the vote counts.

    This clumsy cover-up then produced the incredible result of an Ahmadinejad landlside in Tabriz and Isfahan and Tehran.

    The reason for which Rezaie and Karoubi had to be assigned such implausibly low totals was to make sure Ahmadinejad got over 51% of the vote and thus avoid a run-off between him and Mousavi next Friday, which would have given the Mousavi camp a chance to attempt to rally the public and forestall further tampering with the election.

    This scenario accounts for all known anomalies and is consistent with what we know of the major players.

    More in my column, just out, in Salon.com: "Ahmadinejad reelected under cloud of fraud," where I argue that the outcome of the presidential elections does not and should not affect Obama's policies toward that country-- they are the right policies and should be followed through on regardless.

    The public demonstrations against the result don't appear to be that big. In the past decade, reformers have always backed down in Iran when challenged by hardliners, in part because no one wants to relive the horrible Great Terror of the 1980s after the revolution, when faction-fighting produced blood in the streets. Mousavi is still from that generation.

    My own guess is that you have to get a leadership born after the revolution, who does not remember it and its sanguinary aftermath, before you get people willing to push back hard against the rightwingers.

    So, there are protests against an allegedly stolen election. The Basij paramilitary thugs and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards will break some heads. Unless there has been a sea change in Iran, the theocrats may well get away with this soft coup for the moment. But the regime's legitimacy will take a critical hit, and its ultimate demise may have been hastened, over the next decade or two.

    What I've said is full of speculation and informed guesses. I'd be glad to be proved wrong on several of these points. Maybe I will be.

    PS: Here's the data:

    So here is what Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli said Saturday about the outcome of the Iranian presidential elections:

    "Of 39,165,191 votes counted (85 percent), Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the election with 24,527,516 (62.63 percent)."

    He announced that Mir-Hossein Mousavi came in second with 13,216,411 votes (33.75 percent).

    Mohsen Rezaei got 678,240 votes (1.73 percent)

    Mehdi Karroubi with 333,635 votes (0.85 percent).

    He put the void ballots at 409,389 (1.04 percent).


    Fascinating article by Juan Cole.

    http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html

    Aslo, to all the leftists defending this result = knock it off.
     
  12. zenspiderz

    zenspiderz Just some bloke..

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    Just found this which adds a little more weight to my colour revolution suspicions..

    http://www.uruknet.info/?p=54948

    Spoiler :
     
  13. JerichoHill

    JerichoHill Bedrock of Knowledge

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    supposition and loose connections does not equate to fact.
     
  14. Formaldehyde

    Formaldehyde Both Fair And Balanced

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    Which, ironically, could pertain to either version of the conspiracy theory.

    I found this link in the Wikipedia Iran Elections URL:

    http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=94598&sectionid=351020101

    This is from the same source that reported another poll Mousavi was "ahead in the cities" the day before, which all the conspiracy theorists are now using as their chief argument...

    http://www.webcitation.org/5h4OvEpxj

    I don't think I'd trust Iranian polls too much. We aren't talking Gallup here. It even appears they may very well be corrupt shysters with a previous criminal track record:

     
  15. Miles Teg

    Miles Teg Nuclear Powered Mentat

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    Forma, again, what standards would you expect before you would agree the Iran's elections were rigged, and what other recent elections would you consider to be most probably rigged?
     
  16. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    They have elections in Iran ?
     
  17. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    Could it be that you can't read at all?

    I am not saying that the problem lies with the president, but with non-elected clerics like Khamenei. Or is Khamenei not a cleric? Or does he not hold a position of power - in fact, a position more powerful than that of president? Or are you not that smart?
     
  18. zenspiderz

    zenspiderz Just some bloke..

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    well formaldehyde answered that best. Of course i never stated it as fact that mousavi was a shah-like collaborator with a 'colour revolution' (coup) formulated by forirgn powers intent of regime change. Just there are some indicators that point in that direction that may be worth taking a look at more closely. Actually i find it very hard to believe mousavi (although i don't know much about him really) would do something like that knowingly.

    Most likely he just had some unrealistic ideas of his pull with the electorate and then 'spat his dummy out' when it didn't go his way. And the foreign media in the employ of 'scheming spooks anonymous' opportunistically spin their stories to make the most of the controversy.

    It was very bad form of him to 'declare' victory before the votes had even been counted but that doesn't necessarily proove he was playing along with the standard colour revolution script.

    By the way has it occured to anyone that the reason the sms service went down just after the election might just be a techinical crash due a surge in use?
     
  19. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    That's also probably why several websites have been blocked. And maybe there is a great explanation for riot police beating the crap out of protesters too.
     
  20. zenspiderz

    zenspiderz Just some bloke..

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    I think you don't understand my point; the reformists touted as the answer to the so-called medievel clerics are actually more dominated by big name clerics than the supposed 'hardliners' (propaganda term if ever there was one). Phew and you question my smarts?

    Yes khameini is a cleric and i have already debunked the idea of him being some all powerful wicked sorcerer. whether the position of supreme leader or president is more powerful is a stupid approach; it not the position but the person who may or may not be powerful depending on his individual charisma, smarts, virtue, crediblity and other characteristics. Never heard of lame duck presidents? Impotent kings with wily chancelors that are the real power behind the throne? formally Emperor is more powerful a position than chancellor but in practice who was the more powerful, Emporer freidrich the third or chancellor otto von bismarck? to state just one example.
     

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