AI Survivor - AH Guessing Contest

[Thrasybulos]

I've starting running an alternate set of Alternate Histories (AAH ? ) for AI Survivor using a set of slightly different, but consistent rules.

@Eauxps I. Fourgott is publishing his results for Season 1 AH and had the nice idea of posting "anonymized" results as a teaser and guessing game.

So I'm going to shamelessly steal the idea, and for those interested, we can have a picking guessing contest here.

When I'm done with a season, I'll post the wildcard and playoffs games composition (minus the wildcard entries for the latter), and the anonymized results for those games and the championship game.
You'll need to guess:

• Who made it to the Championship game: 1 point per correct guess
• Who won the Championship game: double your score

 

[Thrasybulos]

Current leaderboard:

1. @a pen-dragon - 33 pts
   @Eauxps I. Fourgott - 33 pts
   @Keler - 33 pts

 

[Thrasybulos]

So, let's get started with Season 5.

I have posted the results for the Opening Round games here.

So we have the following game composition (Note: the AIs are listed in the same order they appear in Sullla's games).

And the results for those games and the Championship were:

So... who made it to the Championship? Who was the Champion?

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

@Eauxps I. Fourgott is publishing his results for Season 1 AH and had the nice idea of posting "anonymized" results as a teaser and guessing game.

Credit where credit is due: Myth and Amicalola did it first. I just kept on with what they were doing.

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

I typed up one game's worth of guesses before realizing I'm not sure what this means:

(Note: the AIs are listed in the same order they appear in Sullla's games).

In the same order they appear... where? I was looking at the pregame screenshot at the top of the AHs first, then realized that might not be right. Is it the order they're listed in on the preview page? Something else?

 

[Thrasybulos]

It's the turn order, the order they're listed in the preview or simply on the main season page.
So for the wildcard game, Mehmed has Bismarck's spot, Kublai has Brennus's, Peter has Genghis's, etc...
For Playoff 1, Pacal and Saladin have the same spots as in the live game, Qin has Alex's, Sury has Louis', etc...

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

I will post my guesses here... sometime soon. Been a bit busy though

 

[Thrasybulos]

Take your time, looks like you're the only contestant anyway.

 

[a pen-dragon]

Wildcard:
Mehmed - Kublai - Peter - Boudi - Sul - Charly - SB
SB and Charly are doomed due to Peaceweight and starting position, respectively. Again Suleiman looks like the one that comes in second but does not win.
I think that Peter is the closest to an all/nothing leader on this map, so third. As for Boudica, I just do not think she can win here, because Kublai is a good warmonger and Mehmed is decent, also IMHO these two have the best starts. I picked Mehmed first, because Charly is a softer target than SB.

P1:
Pacal - Sal - Sury - Darius - Qin - Bismarck
This is a very close AH, so it is difficult to tell some apart. Here Bismarck has a slow starting position that does not fit his starting tech. He does poorly in those conditions. In Sulla's AH the central lone high-PW is doing well due to his start and weak Alex. Here Alex has been replaced with Qin. Due to being protective and less aggressive I think that Qin has decent chances to Survive, while making Darius' position weaker. Darius will probably be all/nothing, thus Darius 4th, Qin 5th.
Louis really struggled with his position, but I think that Sury is a far better fit position on top of being a stringer Leader, especially his expansion is generally fine. Thus I picked him as third. Since Darius will be weaker that will make Saladin stronger, propelling him to second. Pacal norrowly takes first by virtue of being Financial. Also I think that Saladin is more likely to kill people.

P2:
Willem - Kublai - JC - Gilga - Louis - Asoka
Asoka is surrounded by low-PW warmongers, so he will not last long. Louis replaced Sury, and as above, I think he is not as good a fit for this position, especially he will be less of a threat to Willem, allowing Willem to leverage finanical into his top position (also the first not surviving much besides the wins points to Willem). Louis also has Kublai as neighbour, lowering his chances of conquest. JC and Willem both featured in Sulla's game (and AH), and JC as not that much of a threat to Willem. Taht will still be the case here, but due to competition for Asoka and Gilga and Kublai being better than Augustus and Qin at warfare, JC will not be as strong. Especially Kublai will probably do much better with this position and also be favourite to conquer Asoka.

P3:
Mehmed - HC - Toku - Hanni - Alex - Gandhi
Poor India! Gandhi is basically in the same position as Asoka last game. Sulla's AH show that on this map the starting positions of Mehmed, HC and Toku dominate, leaving Hanni and Alex to not win a game. Hanni is much more likely to survive than Alex. Mehmed has the best position, with triple Gold and will leverage that into a first position. Toku is just not that suited for such a position, sure he can take out Ganghi, but expanding peacfully is not his area of excellence, so he will finish behind HC, who leverages financial from his not as good position.

Championship:
HC - Willem - Kublai - Saladin - Pacal - Mehmed
In this field HC dominates with Willem being second, both due to financial. Willem also is less likely to survive than HC, which is why I picked him as second. Kublai is likely to be one of the AI that kills a lot, and the one with the most kills is third, so that is probably him. Pacal is fifth due to financial allowing him to win a game. Now there is one position with amny kills left, and I have either Saladin or Mehmed for that position. Ofc I might have misjuged the previous games, but I think that it is possible for both of them. Personally I think that Saladin is the better out of the two, but he starts closer to Kublai. That said Kublai had his share of being eliminated and I think that Saladin is more likely to be able to do so, so Saladin fourth.

 

[Keler]

It could be nicer if you put screenshots of the maps instead of waiting us to place them in correct spots...
While cheating is also possible, but I wouldn't bother to do that so it would be honest predict.

 

[Thrasybulos]

It could be nicer if you put screenshots of the maps instead of waiting us to place them in correct spots...

Lazy bugger.

Here you go:

Spoiler Wildcard :

Spoiler Playoff 1 :

Spoiler Playoff 2 :

Spoiler Playoff 3 :

 

[Keler]

I thought you'd take screenshots from your own WB file but this works too
I will make my predictions later tonight.

 

[Keler]

Ok I looked it up now, but didn't think so much on it.
You sorted through wins, not score. So my answer is sorted by wins here.

Spoiler my answer :

Wildcard
1.Suleiman-7w-58
2.Mehmed-6w-59
3.Peter-4w-26
4.Boudica-3w-34
5.Kublai Khan-0w-37
6.Charlemagne 0w-4
7.Sitting Bull-0w-2

Playoff 1
1.Darius-6w-40
2.Suryavarman-5w-45
3.Qin Shi Huang-3w-40
4.Pacal-3w-21
5.Saladin-2w-30
6.Bismarc-1w-24

Playoff 2
1.Julius Caesar-8w-66
2.Mehmed-3w-48
3.Louis XIV-4w-42
4.Gilgamesh-3w-27
5.Willem-2w-17
6.Asoka-0w-0

Playoff 3
1.Suleiman-10w-71
2.Huayna Capac-6w-63
3.Tokugawa-4w-43
4.Hannibal-0w-17
5.Alexander-0w-5
6.Gandhi-0w-1

Chmapionship
1.Huayna-9w-62
2.Suleiman-6w-36
3.Suryavarman-2w-35
4.Mehmed-2w-34
5.Julius Caesar-1w-20
6.Darius-0w-13

Writing this made me dizzy a bit

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

At long last getting this done.

Spoiler My guesses :

Wildcard:
Peter
Mehmed II
Charlemagne
Suleiman
Kublai Khan
Boudica
Sitting Bull

The biggest sticking point here was the four wins with only five kills and a terrible survival rate otherwise. I eventually decided that it was most likely to be Charlemagne from his corner, who'd presumably either get knocked out or else get to play a peaceful game and pull ahead that way. That left me needing one more hopeless leader to join the obvious choice of Sitting Bull; given the Toku spot was so bad in the real alternate histories, I settled on Boudy as the most likely to fill that spot.

Zero wins but a ton of survivals and the best kill rate was also a fascinating statistic. I settled on Kublai: Well-positioned to profit off the demise of Sitting Bull, but too cramped to leverage it to any actual victories. As for the three bigger success stories, I picked Suleiman to have the worst win and kill rate despite his position being best in the actual game because, well, I don't think he's as strong as Peter or Mehmed, nor does he have as good of snowball options. That leaves Peter from a central position which even Genghis Khan was able to get good results from, and Mehmed bordering two presumed weak leaders, to run the table most of the time and move into the playoffs.

Playoff One:
Pacal II
Saladin
Suryavarman II
Darius I
Qin Shi Huang
Bismarck

Darius in Washington's central starting position seemed the obvious choice to either win or die, and six wins with five kills is a Pacal statline if I ever saw one. Biz's prospects seem pretty weak in this setup, especially if Darius isn't as strong, so the last entry on the scorecard seems appropriate for him. Qin is shockingly strong whatever statline comes; how did he win from that start, much less multiple times?!?!? With a less aggressive personality but better diplomacy, though, it only made sense that he got more survivals yet less kills than Biz.

That leaves Sal and Sury as the other two competitive leaders, and Sal I think is both more steady and had better conquest opportunities on this map, so I picked him to join Pacal in the Champoinship.

Playoff Two:
Julius Caesar
Gilgamesh
Mehmed II
Louis XIV
Willem van Oranje
Asoka

Asoka is obvious. The statline for #1 is very similar to JC's result in the real AHs, so I'm picking him to repeat that here. His success probably comes at Willem's cost, which explains the latter's spot near the bottom of teh rankings - I don't see anybody else getting just one kill here. The 7 kills seems likely to be Louis who is not nearly so well situated to feed off Asoka.

So the last question is: Who is most likely to have survived 80% of matches? And Gilgamesh with his out-of-the-way spot seems like a much more likely answer than Mehmed in the center.

Playoff Three:
Peter
Tokugawa
Huayna Capac
Alexander
Hannibal
Gandhi

This one is pretty easy to come up with a guess for because it's so similar to the real version. I would like to know how in the world Gandhi managed a kill! Alex is not going to do any better with Peter's old spot than Peter did, but Peter getting the busted Gilgamesh start vastly improves his performance. Hannibal fares no better. Huayna having such a lowered survival rate does seem odd but is perhaps a reasonable swing, and Toku seems the better candidate to rack up the extra survivals/kills.

Championship:
Saladin
Pacal II
Julius Caesar
Gilgamesh
Peter
Tokugawa

LOL @ the three kills; that's a dead giveaway if ever I saw one! After that, though, this feels a crapshoot. Ultimately, it's just instinct and guessing that gets me to this conclusion: Peter and Toku suffer as the competition's weaker leaders. Julius and Gilgamesh amass the most kills but struggle to actually take home the gold, while Sal's relative economic dominance carries him time and time again.

I enjoy these exercises! Can we get the teasers from the opening round as well for other seasons you do?

 

[Thrasybulos]

I enjoy these exercises! Can we get the teasers from the opening round as well for other seasons you do?

I suppose I could: some games have yielded pretty different results from the existing AH.
But other games have had very similar outcomes, so not much guessing to do there.

 

[Thrasybulos]

The results are published.

@a pen-dragon got HC, Kublai, Mehmed and Pacal correct, and got the winner: that's 4 x 2 = 8 pts.
@Keler got HC and Mehmed correct, and also got the winer: that's 2 x 2 = 4 pts.
@Eauxps I. Fourgott got Pacal and Gilgamesh but committed the sin of lack of faith in HC: that's 2 pts.

 

[Fippy]

I always laugh when Huayna Blapac loses..whew i finally said it.

 

[Thrasybulos]

Let's move up to Season 6 next.

I have published my results for the Opening Round here.

So, for the final rounds, we get the following game composition:

Spoiler Wildcard Map :

Spoiler Playoff 1 Map :

Spoiler Playoff 2 Map :

Spoiler Playoff 3 Map :

Note: The positions here are different from what you'd expect.
That's because Sullla messed up shamelessly cheated and placed HC in position 3 instead of position 6. I've restored the correct turn order here. So positions 3-6 are offset by one (SB was in position 4 in Sullla's game, he moves up to position 3 here, etc...).

The game results were:

So... who made it to the Championship game? And who was the Champion?

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

Wildcard:
Mao Zedong
Mehmed
Louis XIV
Brennus
Stalin
Cyrus
Churchill
Darius
Charlemagne

First impressions were that the high peaceweights would not do so well, and numbers seem to back that up. Central of the three seems most likely to die constantly.
One other leader has to largely lack kills, hmm... Cyrus seems most likely, stuck in his corner and pleaselocked too much to accomplish much.
So then, who were the two gigachads at the top? The two central leaders have the best access to rack up the kills, but also the most likelihood for things to go wrong. Hmm...
I decided to back the leaders whose capitals I liked most. Mao's is a great fit for his starting techs and he's competent enough to take advantage. Mehmed has a nice capital as well and religious/border tensions should keep him on the warpath enough to do well.
That leaves three similar leaders. I'm guessing Stalin struggles with the isolated central spot and lots of jungle. Louis and Brennus end up basically interchangeable here and it's a crapshoot between the two of them.

Playoff One:
Mansa Musa
Huayna Capac
Catherine
Victoria
Suryavarman
Pericles

This one required very little though. Huayna on the map makes things more sketchy for Mansa, but not by that much as the setup is otherwise pretty much the same. Another ROFLstomp by him. Biggest difference is Huayna is now a realistic alternate winner because he's Huayna. Cathy and Sury are largely as in the real game. Vicky is more of an aggression magnet than Darius because Pericles's PW is lower, but she manages one win through Financial. Pericles's peaceweight and Huayna being less aggressive allows him to survive a decent amount, but too beat up to really compete.

Playoff Two:
Napoleon
Ramesses
Justinian
Bismarck
Boudica
Mehmed

Do we believe in Pacal's start being good enough to carry a crazy warmonger like Napoleon? After looking at the kill total... yes, yes we do. The low kill total for second place makes me think it must be Ramesses. I'm guessing Boudy's aggression can be semi-reliable driven elsewhere by religious concerns. The low survival and kill rates for fourth make me think Bis must have pulled a win out of his butt somehow at one point and was otherwise weak, while I believe in Justinian's strength enough to put him in the third place spot. Boudy has a good spot but I'm banking here on her being just too economically weak to compete for the win; either that or her kill total is strangely low. Mehmed is too sheltered.

Playoff Three:
Gilgamesh
Mao Zedong
Alexander
Tokugawa
Isabella
Sitting Bull

An uninspiring lot. Setup seems to pretty clearly not favor the high PWs. Gilgamesh is at least among the best leaders here and Augustus was good in the real AHs, so he seems by far the most likely to go on a big run here. Toku keeps getting on his and Mao's bad side for the low survival rate, while Alex is slightly less likely to die but overall similar. A ton of survivals but very few wins seems right for Mao's isolated spot.

Championship:
Huayna Capac
Gilgamesh
Napoleon
Mansa Musa
Mao Zedong
Ramesses

I'm not betting against Huayna again Mansa as the low kill rate with second most wins is a perfect fit, and Ramesses struggles. Mao again survives a lot but struggles to win, while Gilgamesh is slightly more effectual. Napoleon survives a bit less but is able to snowball a couple of times.
This seems to match pretty well with the leaders who I predicted to make it, so hopefully that means I score a bit better than last time

 

[a pen-dragon]

Spoiler Wildcard :

Mehmed - Mao - Louis - Stalin - Brennus - Church - Darius - Charly - Cyrus
The scores indicate the peaceful leaders are at the bottom, so low-PW did win this map.
With those positions Mehmed and Mao are probably the most likely to win this map. I choose Mehmed - Mao due to Mao starting in lots of jungle and forest, slowing his start even with those resources.
Cyrus is probably last by virtue of starting next to Mehmed.
Stalin's start has the same problems as Mao's but he does not have its resources, making him third-fifth.
Breenus is next to Mehmed and Mao, so probably the worst low-PW, earmarking him for fifth.
Amongst the rest probably Louis is best, I think he will be better than Stalin and Brennus, so I will rank him third.
For the rest there is little difference, Churchill maybe survives more, but really it is too close to call.

Spoiler Playoff 1 :

Mansa - HC - Cathy - Pericles - Sury - Victoria
Clearly Mansa first, Victoria and Sury are not thretening his early game much and then he just runs away.
Now I would almost sin on this map but HC not being second would probably mean either Victoria or Pericles as second and that is just too many kills for them, so HC second.
Cathy and Sury will probably also have high kills, so thirs and fifth, with Cathy probably being better.
Pericles will probably survive less than Victoria, due to being next to Cathy and HC and closer to Sury.

Spoiler Playoff 2 :

Nappy - Ramesses - Justinian - Bismarck - Boudica - Mao
Rammy and Bis are the ones with low kills, Rammy actually being reasonably capable to pursue a victory condition (Culture) means he is second.
Amongst the other positions the one of Napoleon stands out so much he almost certainly is first.
Justinian gets in a few win by virtue of being a reasonably good leader. Mao is behind Boudica because he does survive less frequently due to Nappy being closer.

Spoiler Playoff 3 :

Gilga - Mehmed - Alex - Toku - Isa - SB
Alex's start does look nice, but his only natural target is SB, ruining his chances. the third with 3-1-14 looks very much like a snowballing mad warmonger, so Alex.
Still Alex will very frequently ruin SB's start, combined with PW dooming him to last place.
In this game my big question is if Sitting can draw attention long enough for Isa to do something. I do not think so.
So I am left with the three southern leaders. Amongst those surely Toku is the most incompetent, and also the one with the worst start. I think that Gilga is better at winning than Mehmed, making him first.

Spoiler Championship :

HC - Mehmed - Gilga - Mansa - Napoleon - Ramesses
Mansa and Rammy are probably not doing well with those opponents on this map, Mansa still is better than Rammy, meaning Mansa 4th, Rammy 6th.
Amongst the rest, with this record again HC is probably first, Napoleon incapable of winning a game and Gilga better than Mehmed. This time Gilga being better than Mehmed implies Mehmed second and Gilga third, since I am mostly baseing that assesment on the ability to win games.