AI Survivor Season Two Alternate Histories

Finally, in the Discord, there has been a general feeling that future maps should stick to Temperate climates.
That's obviously your call (well, Sullla's), but I feel this is the kind of half-assed solution which actually solves nothing. :p
In addition, while non-temperate climates seem more prone to unbalanced maps... it turns out that most of AI Survivor's maps were very unbalanced anyway, and with some of the worst offenders featuring a temperate climate!

As I've said before, AI Survivor is IMO a mix of several aspects with clashing interests.

For instance, it's a show. For that, you want drama and unexpected situations (the kind which leads @Fippy to post a best moments list. So you want your game settings to include chaos agents like barbs or the UN... and unbalanced maps, the kind of which allow SB to emerge victorious in a game featuring HC, Willem, and Hannibal!

It's also a prediction contest. And for that, you also need unbalanced maps: map-reading is more important there than "roster reading". The least interesting game to try and predict is always the Championship game. The only concern here is that the map shouldn't be obviously unbalanced. Sullla's done a pretty decent job overall there, even if there were a few fails.

Then it's also an attempt at ranking the AIs. And for that, you want none of the above! You want balanced maps, and to restrict randomness.

I would contend that this last aspect is where AI Survivor is the least successful. Not only is the tournament format debatable in that regard, but it'll never achieve the necessary game volumetry (especially if, as has been suggested a few months ago, you essentially drop half the existing results!).

So my suggestion would be to embrace what AI Survivor is good at, and forget about what it's bad at.
So don't fret about the maps turning out to be unbalanced: that's good for the show and the prediction contest!

But if you can't help wanting the playing field to me more fair, then that means work. Ensuring the maps are actually somewhat balanced requires a lot more than simply restricting yourselves to Temperate climate.

I know that I'm going to need such maps in the future, so I've started sporadically working on them.
I play 42 games on a 7-player map (36 games on a 6-player map), and my acceptance criteria is that each position should yield between 3 and 9 wins. So some starting positions may be better than others, but there should be no death spots, and no outright OP starts.
When it becomes obvious a map won't make it, I slightly edit it (move an AI, swap ressources: I've learned the hard way that heavy edits like altering the land shape or adding ressources are bound to fail). Then I start the tests all over.

With the League still going on, that's a slow process: I only have two such maps ready for now. But when the League ends, the pace should pick up.

So Sullla should generate his maps as he usually does, then hand them over to a team of volunteers for that kind of treatment.
Alternatively, depending on when (and if) he starts his next season, I guess I could also hand over what maps I have for you to pick from.

But again, my main suggestion would be to simply not bother, since I don't think balanced maps would be a net gain for AI Survivor.
 
That's good news. :thumbsup:

As I must say I was started to get a bit worried... I'm not closely watching every Sullla stream, but over the past few months, I'd seen him get angry at a regular watcher for mentionning AI survivor in a Civ4 stream or pointedly ignore any AI Survivor-related question... not good "vibes".
 
That's good news. :thumbsup:

As I must say I was started to get a bit worried... I'm not closely watching every Sullla stream, but over the past few months, I'd seen him get angry at a regular watcher for mentionning AI survivor in a Civ4 stream or pointedly ignore any AI Survivor-related question... not good "vibes".
I remember that - Sullla was in a bad mood (the game wasn't going well and he also had a bad time with the game he played before civ). But also, said regular watcher gets a little "too much" sometimes and really was kind of spamming the chat with irrelevant references. As someone who's in the discord with him he's a little notorious for not understanding when things are starting to get "too much".

I am about 99.9% sure S9 is happening within a few months and have been helping with prep (for example stay tuned for completely revamped leader previews).
 
S2O5 - the Shaka Smash game. I decided to skip the teaser for this one because Sullla already ran ten games of his own and it's pretty obvious what the story of this map is. With that said, this was not necessarily Shaka's game...

 
S2O7 - the beginning of Rome's rise.

1769446625457.png


Probably the most interesting set so far this season despite the clear "Big Three". Who could have won that one outlier game?

Writeup

Livestream
 
So, your S2 Game 5 set essentially confirms Sullla's, thus his results can't be attributed to a bad peaceweight roll for Willem for instance.
Which means the difference with my set is most likely explained in this case by the different ruleset: S2 rules in your cases, S5+ rules in mine.

s2_opening_5-png.712604

As you can see, in my set, there was no shared leadership: Shaka was by far the heavy favourite here.
It's a bit hard to pin down what exactly would cause that, though: the Deity free techs mean Toku is up Fishing on Shaka, but that's such a cheap tech it can't be the explanation. I believe S2 was played with Huts? Was Toku's vicinity more hut-heavy?
:confused:

As far as your Game 7 set is concerned... it would seem that there as well our sets diverge very significantly...
Spoiler :

s2_opening_7-png.712606

SB and JC had the best starts by far here... and while SB completely failing to achieve anything should come as no surprise, I bet JC still has some fans.
Well, he certainly did way better than SB (especially in the :hammer: department), but he ought to have been dominant here... and wasn't. Only the last four games where he won 3/4 redeemed him somewhat.

You could certainly argue that Kublai was even more disappointing... but his start was bad.
Qin, on the other hand, did very well from a starting position which Keler has at < 5% win rate and < 30% survival.
 
So, your S2 Game 5 set essentially confirms Sullla's, thus his results can't be attributed to a bad peaceweight roll for Willem for instance.
Which means the difference with my set is most likely explained in this case by the different ruleset: S2 rules in your cases, S5+ rules in mine.

s2_opening_5-png.712604

As you can see, in my set, there was no shared leadership: Shaka was by far the heavy favourite here.
It's a bit hard to pin down what exactly would cause that, though: the Deity free techs mean Toku is up Fishing on Shaka, but that's such a cheap tech it can't be the explanation. I believe S2 was played with Huts? Was Toku's vicinity more hut-heavy?
:confused:
Actually, I think these results are explained less by the changes to Shaka and Toku themselves and more by the changes to their enemies.

Most notably, Izzy, who died in 19/20 games, she is the leader most screwed by Deity starting tech removal. Beelining Priesthood T0 matters a lot less and may actually be quite strong with Agri and The Wheel, but with just Fishing and Mysticism that's basically committing Seppuku. I think that is probably the key to understanding the differences. Under S2 settings Izzy is a lot stronger and a lot more dangerous in the early game (as my set showed), and also has the AP to sometimes ensure she's not a Zulu concubine. Under modern settings she's as tasty of a snack as Freddie.

Also Toku does start quite a bit slower, which buys Willem critical time. These results under modern settings, the more I think about it, the less surprised I am.
As far as your Game 7 set is concerned... it would seem that there as well our sets diverge very significantly...
Spoiler :

s2_opening_7-png.712606


Holy moly, that is DRASTICALLY different. Like, we might have been running completely different games lol. I'm actually shocked
 
S2O7 is here! A classic "Big Three" set, but with enough variations to still be quite interesting.


Spoiler Qin's start :

I was definitely surprised to hear about Qin's spot actually being bad, but I would venture that while the quality of his spot was very high, the only way that spot could win was by trying to break through one or more of the middle leaders. So if the middle leaders are even stronger, well...

It's the key weakness of corner spots. Safer/less dogpile prone, but breakout options are more limited.
 
Teaser.png


This is the teaser for Season 2, Playoff Game 3.

Writeup

Livestream

Spoiler TL;DR :

Ragnar wrecks Mansa's game, "China" unites to run over the map


This has become my all time favorite set I have ever run - it was an absolute gem with some of the best games I've ever watched and an extremely captivating set. As you can see this map was kind of a tossup...
 
Last edited:
That would be one of those cases where the game composition manages to offset the map's unbalance: both Keler's results and my League's results have Mansa's start as OP, and Gandhi's as an absolute deathspot.

pool4_s2_po3_stats-png.742355


Even if we assume the last line to be Gandhi (a rather safe bet considering the number of kills), that means he's managed to pull 2 victories out of 20 games, when in the League that spot saw zero win out of 60 games!
40% FTD with 14 kills would point at Ragnar.

So I'd say:
  1. Kublai
  2. Mansa
  3. Mao
  4. Joao
  5. Ragnar
  6. Gandhi
 
Season 2, Playoff 3. Enjoy!


Spoiler About the map positions... :

Not surprised that Gandhi rolled the deathspot. That may have been the worst spot I have ever had when running an AH.

Joao looks like he had a bad spot too... but it probably helped a lot that Ragnar was in spot 6.
 
Back
Top Bottom