[R&F] AI Victory Times and Aggressiveness Impact: Deity Level Tests

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Feb 7, 2018
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I want to better understand:
  1. How quickly the AI can win; and,
  2. How willing / effective the AI can be at interfering with the human player's plans if the player does not put some effort into diplomacy.
In order to test these, and to provide benchmarks for assessment of the AI after future patches / expansions, I've decided to run a series of test games and record the results of those games in some detail.

Benchmark Objectives / Methodology
To benchmark AI victory times, I will not pursue any victory conditions myself (modified post game 2: I will pursue a Science victory up until the last Space Race project but not complete it). I will not actively attempt to hamper an AI victory. I'll record AI victory time, type of victory, and who was leading in other victory conditions at the time.

To benchmark AI aggressiveness impact, I'll maintain a modest military that should be smaller than neighbouring AI forces and I will not try to cultivate good relations (but I will accept overtures of friendship from the AI). Post-Game 2 I also take steps to make it look like I am closing in on a victory by building a Spaceport and running early Space Race projects. I'll record in general terms the aggressive actions taken by the AI, and then summarize each on the following Impact scale, where each successive level has roughly twice the impact on the player's pursuit of victory:

None (0): AI's action had no impact on the player
Very Low (1): AI's damage was limited to plundering trade routes or pillaging improvements or buildings or a post Classical era Builder or forced a partial shift to a military economy or neutralizing a governor
Low (2): AI killed military unit(s) or a Classical era Builder but did not require a general shift to a military economy for more than 5 turns to deal with or Spy stole gold or a Great Work
Modest (4): AI did not take any cities but pillaged a non-Spaceport district(s) or an Ancient era Builder or post Classical Settler or forced a shift to a general military economy for more than 5 turns
High (8): AI took one or more cities that were subsequently recovered or captured a Classical era Settler that could not be recovered or pillaged a Spaceport district
Very High (16): AI took one or more cities that could not be recovered before accepting peace or captured an Ancient era Settler that could not be recovered​

Test Game "Rules"
Subject to some flexibility in game to better achieve the overall benchmarking objectives in the context of the specific game, I'll follow the following rules during the test games:
Spoiler :

  1. Standard speed, Continents, Standard size, normal number of Civs and City States, all standard settings, Deity level.
  2. No declaring war. No capturing enemy cites except to liberate your own or liberate city state cities after a war initiated by the AI.
  3. Expand to between 6 to 10 cities, depending on the available space.
  4. Maximum military: 2 land units per city (to a minimum of 8, excludes Scouts), 2 naval units per coastal city (or city with Harbour), 1 air unit per city.
  5. Make no diplomatic overtures, but accept delegations, offers of friendship, etc.
  6. Make no special effort to satisfy agendas.
  7. Attempt to maintain Normal Ages (no Dark or Golden Ages if possible).
  8. District builds: Campus then Commercial Hub or Harbour then Theatre, plus slot in as appropriate:
    - x1 city: Encampment
    - x1 city: Government Plaza
    - x1 city: Industrial Zone
    - x2 cities: Aerodrome
    - x1 city: Space Port (added effective Game 3)
    - if low on amenities: Entertainment Districts/Waterparks
    - if lots of amenities: Aquaducts/Neighbourhoods
  9. City build order:
    - Ancient Walls (later Walls if undre threat or nothing else to build)
    - replace Military units to maximums above
    - Traders
    - Builders until all worked tiles are improved
    - Wonders if useful can be attempted
    - Tier 1 and Tier 2 buildings and useful city centre buildings
    - [Spies: beginning Test Game 5 I'll stop building Spies]
    - Space Projects (but not the last one)
    - Archeologists
    - Tier 3 buildings if useful in the circumstances
    - projects only if nothing else to build, then to boost gold only
  10. Normal starting city build order (i.e. Builder/Scout, Settler, military when barbarians/AI encountered).
  11. Do not get a Religion. Take whatever pantheon is most useful in the circumstances.
  12. Do not buy Great Persons with gold or faith.
  13. [Use Spies defensively only. EDIT: Beginning Test Game 5 I'll stop building Spies entirely, to measure how much damage the AI can/will do if your build no Spy defences ]
  14. Try to avoid generating Tourists (no Seaside Resorts, National Parks, etc.)
  15. Use other game systems (Governments, Policy Cards, Traders, Envoys, etc.) however is most useful.
  16. Play as a civ with no useful bonuses under the above rules (i.e. Tamar or Philip).
  17. No start rerolls. Play the start you get to observe AI under both fast and slow player starts.

Test Game Summary Results
All test games posted are played using R&F and all DLCs with the latest patch as of the date of the post. Beginning Test Game 12, this includes the July 2018 patch. These games combined with prior game results as the July 2018 patch purports to deal only with cross-platform support, with no indication than any AI changes were made.

Results as of test game 15:

AI Victory Times
Earliest Observed Victory: 280
Avg. Observed Victory Turn: 318
% Science Victories: 93%
% Cultural Victories: 7%

AI Aggressiveness Impact
Player Eliminated %: 7%
Avg. Aggression Impact: 13.5
Max Aggression Impact: 22
Avg. Aggression Events: 6
Max Aggression Events: 17
If Wars, Avg. Events: 2.5
Max Wars: 4
If Aggressive Spies, Avg. Events: 5.4
Max Aggressive Spy Events: 15

Emergencies
Avg Emergencies Participated in by AI: 3.8
% that Succeeded: 32%

City States
Avg T of 1st death: 21
Avg Surviving at T50 8.6
Avg Surviving at T100 7
Avg Surviving Game 4

Wonders
Spoiler :

Wonder // Earliest Observed Build Turn // Avg Observed Build Turn
Alhambra 118 137
Amundsen-Scott Station never built n/a
Angkor Wat 146 213
Apadana 54 102
Big Ben 161 179
Bolshoi Theatre 266 307 [note: only 3 observed constructions]
Broadway 192 230
Casa de Contratacion 146 192
Chichen Itza 93 109
Colosseum 76 125
Colossus 76 112
Cristo Redentor 175 222
Eiffel Tower 236 269
Estadio do Maracana 224 268
Forbidden City 151 174
Great Library 59 83
Great Lighthouse 63 106
Great Zimbabwe 140 171
Hagia Sophia 130 157
Hanging Gardens 23 38
Hermitage 202 216
Huey Teocalli 115 148
Jebel Barkal 53 83
Kilwa Kisiwani 113 156
Kotoku-In 101 112
Mahabodhi Temple 73 86
Mausoleum Halicarnassus 105 148
Mont St. Michel 132 173
Oracle 57 67
Oxford University 152 175
Petra 76 111
Potala Palace 129 147
Pyramids 39 68
Ruhr Valley 148 190
Statue of Liberty 158 185
St. Basil's Cathedral 125 167
Stonehenge 24 31
Sydney Opera House 222 271
Taj Mahal 136 180
Temple of Artemis 35 60
Terracotta Army 121 145
Venetian Arsenal 189 230
 
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Test Game 1
Me: Tamar
AI: Alexander, Amanitore, Catherine, Chandragupta, Cleopatra, Cyrus, Frederick
Game Seed: 1787264636
Map Seed: 1787269650

AI Victory Achieved: n/a

AI Aggressiveness Impact: player eliminated T245 after 4 events (Ancient: 0 Classical: 0 Medieval: 20 Renaissance: 0 Industrial: 0 Modern: player eliminated Atomic: n/a Information: n/a)

Test Game Summary
Starting position: Quite poor, coastal plains no rivers no mountains one hill few woods, settled a plains hill on the coast

How close to plan: Never got to 6 cities due to Nubia taking my best two cities (2 & 4) early, never built many support districts due to cramped space after Nubian conquest.

Ages: Ancient ended T48, Classical Dark Age ended T88, Medieval Normal Age ended T128, Renaissance Dark Age ended T168, Industrial Normal Age ended T208, Modern Normal Age [game ended T245]

Barbarians: T15 discovered spawning camp and retreated, T19 scout discovered my capital initiating spawn, T31 new camp arises (cleared T40)

Neighbours: T31 Amanitore (her Scout, she is to my west and north), T61 Frederick (his Galley, he is further to the north), T202 Cyrus (my Caravel, other continent), T206 Chandragupta (my Caravel, other continent), T209 Cleopatra (my Caravel, other continent)

Friendships/Alliances: none

Cities Settled: 1st city: T2, 2nd city: T32, 3rd city: T44 (new 3rd city T126 on Tundra coast), 4th city: T67 (new 4th city T132 on Jungle coast)

Pantheon: T68 Lady of Reeds

Great People Recruited: none

City State deaths: T30, T49, T52, T56, T58, T64 (Babylon by Amanitore), T138, T150, T199, T218 (Jerusalum by Frederick), T226 Vilnius (by Amanitore) [surviving the game: Zanzibar, my tributory when I'm defeated]

Civ deaths: T133 (Alexander), T197 (Catherine)

Emergencies: 6 notified of, 5 failed, 1 in progress at game end

Wonders by me: none

Wonders by AI: T34 Stonehenge, T41 Hanging Gardens (Amanitore), T58 Temple of Artemis (Amanitore), T64 Oracle (Amanitore), T70 Pyramids, T86 Jebel Barkal, T92 Mahabodi Temple, T96 Great Library, T101 Kotoku-In, T108 Chichen Itza, T111 Coloseum, T121 Terracotta Army, T124 Petra (Amanitore), T126 Colossus, T133 Alhambra (Amanitore), T142 Huey Teocalli, T143 Great Lighthouse, T144 Potala Palace, T155 St. Basil's Cathedral (Frederick), T156 Great Zimbabwe, T162 Halicarnassus, T173 Oxford University, T176 Statue of Liberty (Frederick), T178 Big Ben (Amanitore), T178 Kilwa Kisiwani, T180 Mont St Michel, T187 Apadana (Amanitore), T190 Forbidden City (Frederick), T197 Casa de Construcion, T201 Angor Wat (Amanitore), T205 Taj Mahal, T207 Venetian Arsenal (Amanitore), T208 Hermitage (Amanitore), T218 Cristo Redentor (Amanitore), T224 Ruhr Valley (Amanitore) [game ended T245]

AI Victory Review
Player defeated on T245 prior to AI victory.
At that stage, no AI had started on a science victory yet, no civ had more than 15 tourists, Chandrgupta has converted 3/6 civs towards religious victory, Amanitore controls 3 original capitals (including mine).

AI Aggressive Actions
Spoiler :

T77 Amanitore Surprise War: Very High Impact
5 Pitati 2 Warriors against unwalled city, T80 she captures my city reducing me to 3 cities, then moves to attack a walled city with 5 Pitati 1 Warrior 6 Horsemen 1 Battering Ram 1 Scout (Scout attacked Archers), T86 she offers 9 + 4/t gold to accept peace (refused as I'm hoping to recapture my lost city), T87 she takes my walled city reducing me to 2 cities, then moves to attack my unwalled capital (capital gets Walls on T90), T89 she offers 6 + 6/t gold to accept peace (refused), T92 she offers 17 + 16/t gold to accept peace (refused), T93 she retreats (down to 3 Horsemen), T94 she offers 11 + 23/t gold to accept peace (refused), T98 he offers 17 + 26/t gold to accept peace (accepted, see reasons to follow). Debrief: The AI handled the Pitati and Horsemen really well. It even wrongfooted me at one point, by shifting the focus of its attack from my walled city to my unwalled capital, then turning around and reversing back to take my walled city. Fast moving archers and cavalry working together are a dangerous combination. She was willing to peace out and give me gold but not return the captured cities. As her units were destroyed, she was replacing them with follow up waves. Her attack finally petered out in front of my capital when I got its walls up. I eventually had to peace out as my former cities had a basic defence of 42, too tough for my archers and warriors. I had no iron to upgrade the warriors and after losing my border campuses it was going to take 26 turns to finish Machinery to get Crossbowmen.

T118 Amanitore Surprise War: Modest Impact
1 Pitati 4 Warriors 1 Spearman 4 Horsemen 2 Great Generals 3 Caravels 1 Quadrareme 1 Galley 1 Great Admiral against walled city, T129 she offers 13 + 25/t gold for peace (accepted). Amanitore's second attack was far less effective, even though my tech had not improved (still archers and warriors, and galleys in the water). The effectiveness of her first attack was likely related to the Pitati, as their absence in the second attack was notable. The naval attack was launched after the land army had been destroyed. If both had happened at the same time, it would have taken my city.

T210 Amanitore Surprise War: Very High Impact
I have Crossbowmen, Khevsurs, Frigates, Caravels, she attacks with 5 Infantry, 2 Bombard Corps, 2 Bombards, 1 Horseman Army, 1 Knight, 1 Medic, 1 Great Generals, 2 Frigates, 1 Ironclad, 1 Great Admirals, T213 she takes my walled capital, T216 she takes my new walled capital. I'm now down to my two newest cities, widely separated from each other. T220 she offers 57/t gold for peace (refused as my cities will flip if I can't get supporting population back), T222 my tundra city goes Free City, T222 Nubia's Infantry upgrade to Mechanized Infantry, T223 she offers 60/t gold for peace (refused), T226 she offers 62/t gold for peace (accepted as naval reinforcements of hers were preventing me from recapturing my city). I now have 1 city, the last one I founded.

T241 Frederick Surprise War: Player Eliminated
Now down to 1 city, Fredrick decides I'm a city state and declares a Surprise War despite having friendly relations. I'm still on Crossbowmen, Khevsurs, Frigates, Caravels, he has Battleship Armadas, UBoat Armadas, Artillery Armies, etc. T245 its over as he launches a coordinated naval bombardment and sea invasion.


Game Observations
Not a great start to the experiment as I don't survive to record AI victory times. Fresh off winning the UU elimination game, Amanitore shows why Pitati are so feared, bloodying me and then finishing off Alexander and his Heteratoi. A very poor starting area combined with Amanitore as my closest neighbour prevented me from ever catching up to the AI in technology. The post Turn 200 wars by Amanitore and Frederick suggest a willingness for the AI to go for the jugular against a weak civ. The AI was able to take defended walled cities against my inferior defending forces, not something I'd observed in games prior to the current patch.
 
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Test Game 2
Me: Tamar
AI: Ganghi, Genghis, Gilgamesh, Gitarja, Gorgo, Harald, Hojo
Game Seed: -1467229714
Map Seed: -1467229713

AI Victory Achieved: T351

AI Aggressiveness Impact: 21 over 10 events (Ancient: 0 Classical: 0 Medieval: 8 Renaissance: 8 Industrial: 0 Modern: 0 Atomic: 0 Information: 5) [note: aggressiveness this game may have been impacted because I did not build a Spaceport]

Test Game Summary
Starting position: Good, jungle start with river, mountains, some nearby hills and forest, and diamond for starting city (requires two turn delay to get there).

How close to plan: Realized during this game that I should build one Spaceport and seem to be going for a space victory in case that impacts AI aggressiveness. Did not do so for this game.

Ages: Ancient ended T43, Classical Dark Age ended T87, Medieval Normal Age ended T127, Renaissance Normal Age ended T167, Industrial Normal Age ended T207, Modern Golden Age ended T247, Atomic Normal Age ended T287, Information Normal Age

Barbarians: T3 scout & camp found (cleared T10), T25 camp found (cleared T29), T45 Barbarian Horsearcher appears

Neighbours: T14 Gitarja (her Scout, she is to my west), T34 Gilgamesh (my Warrior, he is to my north), T37 Harald (my Warrior his Scout, he is northwest on the other side of Gitarja and Gilgamesh), T74 Genghis (his Warrior, he's between Harald and Gitarja/Gligamesh), T90 Gorgo (her Caravel, othe continent), T149 Hojo (his Caravel, other continent), T177 Gandhi (our caravels met, other continent)

Friendships/Alliances: none

Cities Settled: 1st city: T3, 2nd city: T31, 3rd city: T42, 4th city: T56, 5th city: T71, 6th city: T83 (new 6th city built T94), 7th city: restored in peace treaty T115, 8th city: T182 island city

Pantheon: T181 God of the Sea

Great People Recruited: T169 Dmitri Mendeleev, T244 Emily Dickinson, T245 Erwin Schrodinger, T266 Edmonia Lewis, T291 Tagore, T315 Carl Sagan, T319 Gustav Klimt, T327 Mykola Leontovych

City State deaths: T17, T25, T28, T35 (Jeruselum by Gilgamesh: note, one of the 1st 3 was Bandar Brunei by Gilga), T45, T151 (Vilnius by Gitarja), T195, T274 (La Venta by Gorgo) [surviving the game: Carthage and Stockholm, my tributaries, Armagh, and an unmet city state (I never launched satellites)]

Civ deaths: none

Wonders by me: none (tried for Pyramids, beaten to it)

Wonders by AI: T29 Stonehenge, T40 Hanging Gardens, T47 Temple of Artemis, T62 Apadana, T68 Oracle, T72 Jebel Barkal, T73 Mahabodhi Temple, T79 Great Library, T101 Petra (Gitarja), T112 Chitchzen Itza (Gorgo), T114 Kotoku-In (Gorgo), T120 Kilwa Kisiwani (Genghis), T127 Terracotta Army, T131 Pyramids, T135 Colossus (Gorgo), T136 Alhambra (Gilgamesh), T139 Mauseleum, T147 Colosseum (Genghis), T150 Potala Palace (Genghis), T165 Hagia Sophia (Hojo), T167 Huey Teocalli (Genghis), T167 Great Lighthouse (Gorgo), T176 Forbidden City (Genghis), T180 Taj Mahal (Gandhi), T182 Mont St Michel (Genghis), T190 Oxford (Gitarja), T193 Big Ben (Hojo), T208 Great Zimbabwe (Genghis), T212 Ruhr Valley (Gilgamesh), T214 Hermitage (Gorgo), T218 Statue of Liberty (Gitarja), T221 Cristo Redentor (Gorgo), T252 Venetian Arsenal (Genghis), T255 Casa de Constratacion (Genghis), T266 Sydney Opera House (Gorgo), T284 Estadio do Maracana (Gorgo), T285 Broadway (Hojo), T307 Eiffel Tower (Gilgamesh) [game ended T351]

Emergencies: 4 (triggered by Gitarja taking Vilius (no one joins), then by Gitarja taking my city(only I join and succeed), then by Hojo - failed, then by Gorgo taking La Venta - failed)

AI Victory Review
T351 Genghis Science
Hojo and Gilgamesh each needed 1 more space project step, Gitarja needed 2 more space project steps. Gorgo had 365/443 tourists. It looked like Gorgo was headed to culture victory from T200 on, but Hojo's domestic tourists increased faster than her foreign tourists and she could never close the gap. No one captured any capitals. Gitarja converted 4/8 civs.

AI Aggressive Actions
Spoiler :

T86 Gilgamesh Surprise War: High Impact
2 Warcarts 2 Warriors 7 Knights 1 Catapult against walled city, I had Archers, Warriors, and a Spearman, T91 his Knight takes the city after his Catapult destorys the walls, he shifts towards next walled city adding 2 Knights 1 Horseman 1 Archer 1 Great General, I upgrade my Warriors to Swordsmen, T97 he offers 21 + 28/t gold for peace (refused), T99 he takes a second city through brute Knights attacks, T100 he offers 39/t for peace (refused), T101 he shifts towards my walled Capital, T103 he offers 2 + 32/t gold for peace (refused), T104 I get my first Crossbowman and Gilgamesh upgrades his Archer to Crossbowman same turn, T104 Vilnius becomes tributory of Gilgamesh and sends 1 Swordsman (embarked) against another of my walled cities, T06 he offers 5 + 66/t gold for peace (refused), T107 I put the most recent city Gilga took from me under siege with Swordsmen and Spearmen supported by 1 Crossbowman and 1 Archer, in addition to the 1 Knight in garrison he adds a Pikeman, T109 he offers 2 + 72/t gold for pace (refused), T110 I upgrade another Archer to Crossbowmen, T102 he offers 78/t gold for peace (refused) and sends a Knight reinforcement to city under siege, which attacks a unit seemingly to try and break the siege, T105 he offers all his gold (253 + 74/t) for peace (refused), T115 I retake one of the cities Gilga took and he agrees to return the second plus 5 + 28/t gold. Debrief: Gilgamesh's Warcarts were quickly dispatched by my Archers and Spearman, but his Knights (presumably upgraded Warcarts) were a whole different beast. There was no wasted time in his attacks, he went straight at the target cities and grabbed them despite their walls. After a wave of reinforcements following the capture of the first city, however, reinforcements to hold his conquests were slow to come, allowing me to eventually gain the upper hand, but only after forcing me to spend 30 turns on full war footing.

Non-event: T140 Gitarja masses a Pike army at my border
I move reinforcements to that city, she shifts her army north to another city of mine, I bring up other units to that city, Gitarja's troops eventually disperse. She may have just been trying to march past me towards Genghis/Gilgamesh to my north.

T157 Gitarja Surprise War: High Impact
2 Knights 1 Musket 3 Pike & Shot 2 Crossbowman 1 Battering Ram against a walled city, she has Crusades (!) giving her +10 against the city, I have Crossbowmen, Pikes, Swordsmen, 1 Khevsur, I've researched musketmen but have no Nitre to upgrade with, her Knights go right after my Pikes and shred them, then turn on the city and shred it's walls, T160 my city falls triggering an Emergency against Gitarja (I'm the only one who joins), T161 I gain suzerainty over Carthage, on Gitarja's opposite border but no action is observed on that front, T162 with Crusades no longer boosting her units now that my city has fallen, I realize I can start counterattacking and destroy her 2 Knights with Crossbowmen, T165 I upgrade my Pikes to Pike & Shot, T167 she offers 15 + 29/t gold for peace (refused), T170 I have my former city under siege, she offers 1 + 34/t gold for peace (refused), T171 I recapture my city winning the emergency, T1172 she gives me Nitre + 23/t gold for peace and I upgrade my Swordsmen to Musketmen. Debrief: Crusades is brutal. Knights with Crusades make Pikes look like pinettas. Losing the city made winning the war possible by disabling her +10.

T262 Harald declares a Surprise War against me: No Impact
He's on the other side of our continent and has no units nearby, and was friendly before the attack. T270 a lone Frigate attacks my island city and is sunk by my Battleship, T278 he offers 12 + 9/t gold for peace (accepted). Debrief: The first Fake War of the test games. No idea what motivated war.

T290 Partisans: Very Low Impact
2 Infantry pillaged a Zoo then destroyed same turn

T292 Partisans: Very Low Impact
2 Infantry pillaged an Arena then destroyed same turn

T320 Partisan: No Impact
1 Modern Armour immediately destroyed same turn

T325 Partisans: Very Low Impact
2 Modern Armour plundered two trade routes then destroyed same turn

T332 Partisans recruited by Gitarja: Very Low Impact
2 Modern Armour plundered Stadium and Research Lab then destroyed same turn.

T338 Mongolian Spy killed trying to recruit Partisans: No impact

T345 Partisans: Very Low Impact
2 Modern Armour plundered a trade route and pillaged a Broadcast Centre then destroyed same turn


Game Observations
After Pitati Archers in Test Game 1, I get Warcarts as my closest neighbour in Test Game 2. I'm not sure if the game is trying to help me evaluate the validity of the UU elimination thread or if it knows I'm measuring it's aggressiveness and is trying to put its best foot forward.

For the second straight test game I lose two cities before T100. Main difference is unlike the prior game, my starting position isn't horrible this time and I'm able to recover the cities. I still spend most of the game a tech era behind the AI but I survive to the end and get to observe my first AI victory time. Was quite certain it would be a cultural victory by Gorgo, but she spent a hundred turns never able to get ahead of Hojo's generation of domestic tourists. Hojo, Gilgamesh, and Genghis advanced in the space race almost in step lock, and Gitarja caught up to them right at the end.
 
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Test Game 3
Me: Tamar
AI: Jadwiga, Jayavarman, John Curtin, Lautaro, Montezuma, Mvembe, Pedro
Game Seed: 1351798286
Map Seed: 1351798287

AI Victory Achieved: T307 Science

AI Aggressiveness Impact: 8 over 2 events (Ancient: 8 Classical: 0 Medieval: 0 Renaissance: 0 Industrial: 0 Modern: 0 Atomic: 0 Information: 0)

Test Game Summary
Starting position: Below average. River and nearby mountains with a few grassland hills, but mostly flat grassland with only a few woods.

How close to plan: Bounced around from Dark Ages to Golden Ages a bit early, otherwise on plan.

Ages: Ancient Era ended T44, Classical Dark Ages ended T84, Medieval Heroic Age ended T124, Renaissance Golden Age ended T164, Industrial Dark Age ended T204, Modern Normal Age ended T244, Atomic Normal Age ended T284, Information Normal Age

Barbarians: T8 found camp (cleared T17), T85 Scout finds my former capital same turn Jayavarman attacks my border city (camp cleared T90)

Neighbours: T15 Jayavarman (his Scout, to my south), T60 Pedro (his Scout, to my southeast), T74 Lautaro (our Scouts met, further south beyond Khmer and Brazil), T92 Montezuma (his Great Admiral, other continent), T131 John Curtin (his Frigate, other continent), T132 Jadwiga (her Scout, other continent), T171 Mvembe (my Caravel, other continent)

Friendships/Alliances: none

Cities Settled: 1st city: T1, 2nd city: T25, 3rd city: T64, 4th city: T64, 5th city: T72, 6th city: T94, 7th city: T105, 8th city: T147

Pantheon: T91 Lady of the Reeds

Great People Recruited by me: T190 Dmitri Mendeleev, T243 F Scott Fitzgerald, T245 Mark Leakey, T249 Jang Seung-Eop

City State deaths: T19, T27 Kumasi (by Pedro), T34, T67, T79, T91, T173 (Geneva by Pedro), T187 (Zanzibar by Montezuma), T235 (someone by John Curtin) [surviving the game: Antioch (I am Suzerain), Preslev, Yerevan - Preslev and Yerevan are under seige with less than half their health left on game end, likely would not have lasted another couple of turns]

Civ deaths: T218 Jayavarman (last city went Free City)

Emergencies: 1 triggered by Jayavarman taking my capital (only I join - I succeed), 1 triggered by unmet player (succeeded), 1 triggered by Pedro taking Geneva (failed), 1 triggered by John Curtin taking a city state (failed)

Wonders by me: T188 Colosseum

Wonders by AI: T27 Stonehenge (Jayavarman), T34 Hanging Gardens, T37 Temple of Artemis, T71 Oracle, T72 Great Library, T87 Pyramids (Pedro), T91 Mahabodhi Temple, T107 Jebel Barkal (Pedro), T109 Chichen Itza (Pedro), T111 Kotoku-In (Montezuma), T120 Kilwa Kisiwani (Lautaro), T125 Alhambra, T131 Petra, T133 Colossus (Pedro), T137 Terracotta Army (Jayavarman), T146 Great Lighthouse (Montezuma), T149 Potala Palace (Lautaro), T153 Hagia Sophia (Jadwiga), T158 Huet Teocalli (Mvembe), T161 Taj Mahal (Mvembe), T169 Oxford (Montezuma), T172 Great Zimbabwe (Pedro), T174 Apadana (Jadwiga), T175 Statue of Liberty (John Curtin), T175 Forbidden City (Lautaro), T176 Big Ben (John Curtin), T183 Angkor Wat (Lautaro), T185 Casa de Contratacion (Pedro), T195 Ruhr Valley (Lautaro), T199 Venetian Arsenal (Montezuma), T207 Hermitage (John Curtin), T208 St. Basil's (Jadwiga), T215 Broadway (Lautaro), T218 Cristo Redentor (John Curtin), T252 Mont St Michel (Jadwiga), T262 Eiffel Tower (John Curtin), T281 Estadio do Maracana (John Curtin)

AI Victory Review
T307 John Curtin Science
Lautaro and Montezuma each needed 2 more space project steps. Lautaro and John Curtin were neck-and-neck for science victory from T240 onwards, Montezume closed on them around T290. Lautaro had 159/474 tourists. Lautaro held Jayavarman's former capital (Lautaro also at one point held Pedro's capital but it went Free City and rejoined Brazil). Jadwiga converted 4/7 civs.

AI Aggressive Actions
Spoiler :

T30 Khmer Surprise War: High Impact
6 Warriors, 1 Slinger, 2 Scouts (his Scouts attack damaged units) versus my 1 Warrior, 1 Slinger, 1 Scout, T32 he captures my capital, triggering an Emergency which only I join, T43 I upgrade my Slinger to an Archer, T44 he offers 13 + 2/t gold for peace (refused), T46 he builds an Archer in my former capital, T47 he offers 11 + 5/t gold for peace (refused), T50 another Archer reinforcement arrives and he offers 7/t gold for peace (refusd), T54 he builds another Archer in my former capital and offers 17/t gold for peace (refused), T57 I have my former capital under siege and he offers 20/t gold for peace, T58 I recapture my former capital and he gives me all his gold 138 + 15/t for peace (accepted) plus the 1600 for winning the emergency which I turn into two new Settlers and a Builder to partially catch up on lost time

T85 Khmer Surprise War: No Impact
3 Horseman, 2 Heavy Chariots 1 Warrior against my unwalled city (I put up Walls T86), I have 2 Archers, 1 Swordsman, 1 Heavy Chariot nearby, T88 I capture a Khmer Settler from 2 Warrior Escorts, T95 he gives me 6 + 20/t gold for peace. My city was never in danger, and the inconvenience of using Builder charges to complete the Walls was more than made up for by the captured Settler.


Game Observations
I guessed wrong on the map and started with a Scout instead of a Builder, and it almost resulted in another player eliminated game. For the third straight game I lost a city to the AI, for the second of those my capital. The Scout didn't find any Goody Huts or trigger any inspirations and the lack of any improved tiles hampered the war against the Khmer, plus that early attack delayed my first Builder even further meaning no inspiration for Craftsmanship.

Building a Spaceport and completing all but the final Space Race project did nothing to increase the AI's aggressiveness late game. I didn't even receive notice of any Spy actions. Who needs to spend time on diplomacy?

Significantly faster victory by the AI compared to the prior game. Which is more typical? Will need to run quite a few more tests to get a better sense.
 
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Hmm, I'd think this would be easier if there was autoplay. I know of some mods but they aren't updated for R&F
 
Hmm, I'd think this would be easier if there was autoplay. I know of some mods but they aren't updated for R&F

I'd be interested in that data, if it was available. I'd be particularly interested in whether there's a difference in AI victory times with no human player.

Autoplay, however, wouldn't help understand how willing/capable the AI is of interfering with the human player's plans in the absence of proactive diplomacy. Part of what I'm trying to do is create a baseline for the current state of the AI in that regard, to give me something to measure future patches (if any) against.


You yourself in fact influences the era development speed, so it's not a real test I guess.

The purpose of the first objective is to understand how quickly a human player must complete their victory conditions before an AI Civ will beat them to a victory. So what's relevant is AI victory times in games where there is a human player. The test game rules are intended to impact the AI Civs' plans to the smallest extent possible while still existing.

Also, it's Deity level with 7 AI Civs, so the era turns are pretty much 40 turns each like clockwork. The era ends dates are recorded, so should we ever have a large enough sample, any impact from the small variations could be extrapolated.
 
Test Game 4
Me: Tamar
AI: Pericles, Peter, Philip, Poundmaker, Qin, Robert, Saladin
Game Seed: -2011675272
Map Seed: -2011675271

AI Victory Achieved: T318 Science

AI Aggressiveness Impact: 9 over 4 events (Ancient: 4, Classical: 0, Medieval: 1, Renaissance: 2, Industrial: 2, Modern: 0, Atomic: 0, Information: 0)

Test Game Summary
Starting position: Average. River, mountain, some jungle and woods. Only one hill and one Luxury (Dye), but lots of Horses and Stone. Turned out to be a very cramped space, though, with Pericles settling a city 5 tiles from my capital on T3.

Deviations from plan: Erroneously boosted relationship with Pericles T155 when I returned a Free City to him.

Ages: Ancient Era ended T45, Classical Normal Age ended T89, Medieval Normal Age ended T129, Renaissance Normal Age ended T169, Industrial Normal Age ended T209, Modern Golden Age ended T249, Atomic Golden Age ended T289, Information Normal Age

Barbarians: T2 discovered Camp + Scout (cleared T4), T23 Scout finds my capital while Pericles is attacking it from the other side (T24 I kill it before it can return to camp), T35 Camp found (T37 cleared), T49 discoverd Camp (cleared by City State)

Neighbours: T3 Pericles (his city, to my east), T8 Saladin (his Warrior, to my north), T27 Peter (his Scout, to my south), T28 Robert the Bruce (his Scout, to my south east), T132 Qin (his Scout, other continent), T170 Poundmaker (my Scout, other continent), T173 Philip (his Frigate, my Scout, other continent)

Friendships/Alliances: T157 Friendship Pericles (possibly an unintended consequence of taking a Free City and returning it to him, renewed T198, renewed T234, renewed T270, renewed T306), T167 Alliance (Research, renewed T203 as Economic, renewed T239 as Research, renewed T275 as Research, renewed T311 as Research) Pericles, T306 Friendship Qin

Cities Settled: 1st city: T1, 2nd city: T39, 3rd city: T51, 4th city: T72, 5th city: T83 desert city near Peter at -13 Loyalty, 6th city: T196 island city, 7th city: T236 Russian city flipped to me

Pantheon: T33 God of the Open Sky

Great People Recruited by me: T135 Emilie Du Chatelet, T177 Charles Darwin, T196 Mary Katherine Goddard, T232 James Joyce, T237 Katsushika Hokusai, T242 Erwin Schroedinger, T257 Liu Tianhua, T269 HG Wells, T276 Edmonia Lewis, T296 Carl Sagan, T300 Marie-Anne Collot, T312 Karel Capek

City State deaths: T23, T85 (Muscat by Peter - see details below), T98, T245 (La Venta by Robert - see details), T253 (Auckland by Robert - flipped to Free State and liberated by Qin) [in addition to Auckland, 7 other City States survived the game (Bandar Brunei, Brussels, Buenes Aires, Hong Kong, Preslav, Toronto, Stockhom), I'm Suzerain of 5 of them]

City State expanded details:
Spoiler :

Muscat: T85 Peter captures, T94 it goes Free City, T99 restore it to City State, T106 Robert captures it, he would have lost it as a Free City within a few turns but it triggered an Emergency against him joined only by Pericles who failed, T215 Muscat goes Free City again, T223 I liberate it back to a Free City, T238 Robert captures it, T243 Muscat goes Free City 3rd time, T248 I liberate it for a 3rd time, T274 Robert captures it and again Pericles alone joins an Emergency against him allowing Robert to retain it when it otherwise would ahave flipped in a few turns

La Venta: T245 Robert captures, T248 it goes Free City, T252 I liberate it, T266 Poundmaker captures it, T272 it goes Free City again, T273 I liberate it again, T299 Saladin captures it after he, Robert and Poundmaker were tripping over each other trying to attack it


Civ deaths: none

Emergencies: 1 against unmet player - failed, 1 against Robert for capturing Muscat - failed, 1 against Peter - failed, 1 against Robert for capturing Muscat again - failed, 1 against Qin for Betrayal - in progress at game end

Wonders by me: T188 Great Zimbabwe, T297 Bolshoi Theatre

Wonders by AI: T24 Stonehenge, T37 Hanging Gardens (Pericles), T39 Pyramids, T53 Jebel Barkal, T71 Oracle, T73 Mahabodhi Temple, T77 Apadana, T81 Great Library (Pericles), T85 Temple of Artemis, T97 Chichen Itza (Pericles), T105 Mauseleum of Halicarnassus, T110 Colosseum, T112 Great Lighthouse, T113 Kotoku-In (Robert the Bruce), T115 Huey Teocalli, T123 Petra (Peter), T124 Colossus, T130 Alhambra (Robert), T135 Terracotta Army, T136 Taj Mahal, T141 Mont St Michel (Saladin), T142 Potala Palace (Qin), T156 Kilwa Kisiwani, T158 Statue of Liberty, T165 Casa de Contratacion, T163 Hagia Sophia (Saladin), T171 St. Basil's (Philip), T175 Forbidden City (Poundmaker), T178 Ruhr Valley (Qin), T181 Oxford (Poundmaker), T206 Big Ben (Peter), T219 Venetian Arsenal (Philip), T224 Cristo Redentor (Poundmaker), T230 Broadway (Poundmaker), T234 Hermitage (Poundmaker), T255 Eiffel Tower (Pericles), T264 Angkor Wat (Pericles), T277 Estadio do Maracana (Poundmaker), T283 Sydney Opera House (Pericles)

AI Victory Review
T318 Science by Poundmaker
Poundmaker and his 20 city empire started space race around T245, over 30 turns before any other AI Civ built a Space Port. Saladin caught up a bit but still needed 4 more space project steps at finish. Pericles had 266/554 tourists, at no time was he generating more foreign tourists than Poundmaker was producing domestic tourists. Peter converted 5/8 civs, he had all 5 civs on his starting continent converted by T190, but made no apparent headway on the second continent.

AI Aggressive Actions
Spoiler :

T18 Pericles Surprise War: Modest Impact
After sending a delegation on T15, he occupies my territory on T16, blocking my Builder from improving three tiles. My Warrior finds the Stone of Scone which I sell to Pericles for 203 + 20/t gold (I never get the +20/t due to Pericles declaring war). I use the gold to buy a second Warrior and then a second Slinger. T17 our relationship is now Frindly +19, and he has 4 Warriors and 1 Slinger in or adjacent to my territory. T18 he declares war. I have my Builder chop in a 3rd Warrior. T21 he brings up a 5th Warrior. T26 he retreats his surviving Warriors. T29 I upgrade to Archers. T30 Pericles brings Muscat into the war against me, but their troops don't have time to arrive. T31 he offers 131 + 4/t gold for peace (accepted - I couldn't get him to agree to return the Stone of Scone, though, that he hasn't finished paying for :) ) Debrief: Pericles didn't get my capital, but for a couple of turns it seemed he would. The Stone of Scone, the Craftsmenship inspiration, and a Woods are the cost of buying/chopping in enough of an army to hold out (barely). At the end of the war, it would have been easy to push on and take his city 5 tiles from my capital, but I accept peace instead. Footnote: T140 Pericles' neighbouring city is captured by Robert as part of Pericle's failed Emergency War over Muscat. T145 it goes Free City, T150 I capture it. I can't find the Stone of Scone but I take The Canterbury Tales and reassign the border tiles to my capital, then return it to Pericles. Shouldn't have done this, as it boosted my relationship with Pericles.

Non-Event: Saladin's Army
T26 Saladin's army arrives just as Pericles is retreating. T29 he has 3 Warriors and 1 Slinger adjacent to my territory. T30 after I upgrade to Archers his army scatters.

Non-Event: Peter's Army
T57 5 of Peter's Warriors move into and adjacent to the territory of my 3rd city. T57 I get Early Empire, kicking them out. T60 they disperse.

T138 Saladin Surprise War: Very Low Impact
7 Mamluks 2 Swordsmen 1 Crossbowman 1 Catapult attack my walled City (Victor with No Siege promotion is Governor). I have Crossbowmen, Swordsmen, 1 Khevsur, and Horsemen. T141 Saladin plunders a trade route. T145 he brings La Venta into the war against me, but their troops don't have time to arrive. T146 I upgrade to Musketmen. T148 he offers 545 + 44/t gold for peace (accepted). Debrief: My city is behind a river flanked by a hill and jungle. Saladin's Maluks can't fight through the Khevsur and Swordsman (later Musketmen) guarding the river backed by Crossbowmen. After a few turns, he gets three Mamluks around to threaten my Crossbowmen from behind, but I'm able to bring up garrison troops from neighbouring cities to break his Mamluks. Despite a threatening army, my position is too strong and his damage is limited to a single Trader.

T207 Peter Surprise War: Low Impact
Peter brings forward 3 Cossack Corps, 1 Cossacks, 3 Pike & Shot, 1 Crossbowman Corp, 1 Crossbowman and 1 Warrior Corp! (he's been asking me for Iron and Nitre for a while). He surrounds my border walled city while his Cossack Corps surprise kill a Musketman. He later brings up 2 Cossacks 1 Crossbowman 1 Pike & Shot as reinforcements. I have Musketmen, Cavalry, and Field Cannons. I kill one of his Cossack Corps, pushing me into an unintended Golden Age. T208 he kills two more of my units. T209 I upgrade to Infantry and switch to the +1 Movement Policy. T211 a lone Russian Frigate attacks my unwalled island city. T217 he offers 91/t gold for peace (accepted). Debrief: The Cossacks were dangerous. If Peter had quality support units for them, I would have been in trouble. As it was, my Field Cannons shredded his Crossbowmen, and once I had +1 Movement Infantry I was able to surround and destroy the Cossacks.

T242 Peter Surprise War: Low Impact
4 Cossacks, 2 Crossbowmen Armies, 1 Crossbowman, 1 Catapult, 2 Medic attack my walled city that revolted from his empire a few turns earlier. I have Field Cannons, Infantry, Cavalry, and Biplanes. Pericles joins the war automatically as my ally, but does nothing. T243 the Cossacks bypass my city and surround and kill a Cavalry Corp. T244 Peter's army spreads out and attacks three different cities, making it easy to destroy them piecemeal. T250 I upgrade to Fighters. T250 a Cossack Army pillages a building, then another on T251 before my Fighters destroy it. T252 he offers 72/t gold for peace (accepted).


Game Observations
Most notable feature of the game is the number of City States who survive. One cluster (Auckland, Buenos Aires) on the other continent is cut off by a mountain range, one cluster (Preslav, Hong Kong) are in the far north on the other continent a long way from anyone, one cluster (Bandar Brunei, Stockholm) on my continent is in the far north away from anyone but Saladin, and La Venta and Brussels border only me and one other civ (Arabia and Russia respectively). Mostly, though, the AI seemed to focus on a few cities - notably Muscat - and leave other cities alone. Five Industrial City States survived (though Auckland was captured and flipped free before being liberated by Qin). Fluke, or does the AI avoid attacking Industrial City States for some reason?

Third straight game out of four with no Spy activity against me. I'm going to stop building any Spies in future test games to better gauge whether building Spies is needed if you're not going to use them offensively.
 
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How rich have your civ's been? If you are behind the curve in science and gold perhaps the AI will not waste spies on you? Where are you overall in terms of any vicitory conditions, perhaps you have to be a real threat to be a target?

Interesting work though, love the wonder build times
 
How rich have your civ's been? If you are behind the curve in science and gold perhaps the AI will not waste spies on you? Where are you overall in terms of any vicitory conditions, perhaps you have to be a real threat to be a target?

Interesting work though, love the wonder build times

Good questions. I'm not convinced the AI pays attention to how close other civs are to victory, but it has been raised that there's a point at which your relationship with other AIs goes mysteriously negative, which could be related to how close you are to winning. Somewhere I saw it posited that this only kicks in when you're close to victory in two different areas, which I'd have a hard time testing because I couldn't safely pursue a culture victory without accidently winning.

Re where I was on science and gold:

Test Game 1 I was a basket case thanks to a very poor starting location and Amanitore's Pitati Archers, so no threat to anyone on any front.

Test Game 2 I had lots of gold, but wasn't pursuing any victory objectives. After that game, I decided to start pursuing (but not completing) the space race, in order to look like a victory threat. This was the only game that attracted Spy action against me, and it was pretty much focussed on my Neighbourhood and spawning Partisans.

Test Game 3 I had a lot of gold but I was chasing Lautaro and John Curtin in science and together with Montezuma caught up to them right at the end. I could have finished the space race before them, but only by a few turns. So most of the game, I was middle of the pack.

Test Game 4 I was swimming in gold (built Great Zimbabwe, but the AI never sent a Spy there). I started the space race after Poundmaker did, but quickly passed him, and could have finished it long before he did. So I was both the science leader and pulling in a lot of gold and had a Great Zimbabwe Commercial Hub and I never saw a Spy. I never built a Neighbourhood this game (no Breathtaking appeal spots for the inspiration), but then I did build a Neighbourhood in Test Game 3 and it didn't get Spies either. Also, despite being the leader in science, my relationship with the other AIs just kept getting better and better as the game went along, without me doing anything on purpose to boost it.
 
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How rich have your civ's been? If you are behind the curve in science and gold perhaps the AI will not waste spies on you? Where are you overall in terms of any vicitory conditions, perhaps you have to be a real threat to be a target?

Interesting work though, love the wonder build times

My last game (Imm, Science Vic with Barbie) was a good anecdote/proof of this. I was not leading the Science Race until the second half of it, but nevertheless my key city and its governor were constantly targeted by the AIs to try and stop me. This was a good strat as my governor was Magnus and I had him in a centralized production monster (my usual strat) collecting all surrounding IZs production; this is also were, obviously, my only spaceport was located. I had a permanent defensive spy on the Gov Plaza which also covered the spaceport, and all related empowering cards/bonuses. The AI even managed to recruit partisans in a nearby 'hood to try and dislocate my space efforts (which almost worked as I had my main army far away in the front against the leader of the space race (who other than Kongo :crazyeye:)...

So, spies are behaving better than before, but I have yet to see defensive spies stopping me (although I am not sure if I am outplaying them with all my promoted spies plus policies, or if they are just not there...).
 
I'd be interested in that data, if it was available. I'd be particularly interested in whether there's a difference in AI victory times with no human player.

Autoplay, however, wouldn't help understand how willing/capable the AI is of interfering with the human player's plans in the absence of proactive diplomacy. Part of what I'm trying to do is create a baseline for the current state of the AI in that regard, to give me something to measure future patches (if any) against.

That's an interesting thing to find out about. I'm not sure if the AI really cares/knows about what you're doing beyond the diplo penalty for winning.
 
That's an interesting thing to find out about. I'm not sure if the AI really cares/knows about what you're doing beyond the diplo penalty for winning.

I'm not even sure the diplo penalty for winning even exists, or if it does, what the trigger is. I recall somewhere reading that it was based on leading in two different victory conditions at the same time, but maybe I imagined that. It would be a silly way to do it, if true: you only need one victory condition to win.

I do know that people have reported mysterious declines in their relationship with the AI. I have never duplicated that, either in real game play or in these test games, but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. It does, however, suggest to me that it doesn't always happen, or that it happens in such a subtle way as to not always be noticeable.

My test approach may not be the best one, but it's the best one I could think of to measure actual AI aggressive actions that impact the speed at which the human player completes their victory plans. Whether that impact comes about because of randomness or specific targeting of the "leader", at least it gives some sense of how much of a penalty you will pay if you play the game while ignoring that the AI civs exist. Equally important, with enough observations I hope to be able to measure whether AI impact actually changes in future patches (if any).
 
I'm not even sure the diplo penalty for winning even exists, or if it does, what the trigger is

It's pretty simple. You need to be half done with any victory condition. So if there's 8 capitals and you own 4 (don't forget your own), they'll start hating you. If you've converted half the civs in the game, you're half way to a religion victory. And if you've launched a Mars project, you're more than halfway because there's 5 projects and that would make it 3. For some reason this does not apply to culture victories at all.
 
It's pretty simple. You need to be half done with any victory condition. So if there's 8 capitals and you own 4 (don't forget your own), they'll start hating you. If you've converted half the civs in the game, you're half way to a religion victory. And if you've launched a Mars project, you're more than halfway because there's 5 projects and that would make it 3. For some reason this does not apply to culture victories at all.

Interesting. Do you know the magnitude of the modifier?
 

Thanks! I completely missed this thread. So the core concepts appear to be:
  • You must not only be 50% of the way to victory, but also ahead of all other civs in that victory condition
  • The modifier is -1 per turn, so it ramps up slowly but consistently
  • If you get "passed" by another civ, it goes down by 1 each turn, so slowly shuts off
  • It ignores Cultural and Score Victories at last observation, so only applies to the leader in Science, Domination, and Religion once they are at least half way towards victory
  • You cannot see the current modifier via the UI, but only by opening up the game logs
 
My last game (Imm, Science Vic with Barbie) was a good anecdote/proof of this. I was not leading the Science Race until the second half of it, but nevertheless my key city and its governor were constantly targeted by the AIs to try and stop me. This was a good strat as my governor was Magnus and I had him in a centralized production monster (my usual strat) collecting all surrounding IZs production; this is also were, obviously, my only spaceport was located. I had a permanent defensive spy on the Gov Plaza which also covered the spaceport, and all related empowering cards/bonuses. The AI even managed to recruit partisans in a nearby 'hood to try and dislocate my space efforts (which almost worked as I had my main army far away in the front against the leader of the space race (who other than Kongo :crazyeye:)...

So, spies are behaving better than before, but I have yet to see defensive spies stopping me (although I am not sure if I am outplaying them with all my promoted spies plus policies, or if they are just not there...).
Anecdotal, but I had a somewhat similar experience in my last game, but with a twist. I was clearly ahead during the later ages (this was immortal difficulty), and AI spies were agressively targeting my capital, both continually taking governor out of control and recruiting partisans from a neighborhood (ironically, the neighborhood was right on border to Germany and separated from my actual empire by ocean/mountains, so the partisans just went into Germany's lands each time).

The twist was, that in this game my main production city was not my capital, but instead my 4th or 5th city which was in a hilly area in the middle of my empire and had Ruhr Valley, which turned it into a total production monster. This was where I build my spaceport, and I had Pingala positioned here (+30 % space project promotion). I'm unsure if it was because AI could not see this city, or if it just was poor AI programming, but I never had any spy action in this city, only in the capital.
 
Thanks! I completely missed this thread. So the core concepts appear to be:
  • You must not only be 50% of the way to victory, but also ahead of all other civs in that victory condition
  • The modifier is -1 per turn, so it ramps up slowly but consistently
  • If you get "passed" by another civ, it goes down by 1 each turn, so slowly shuts off
  • It ignores Cultural and Score Victories at last observation, so only applies to the leader in Science, Domination, and Religion once they are at least half way towards victory
  • You cannot see the current modifier via the UI, but only by opening up the game logs

You should be able to see the modifier. But dang, I mostly only do culture victories now that I don't even see it anymore so I don't know.
 
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