Alleged secret Syrian reactor

No, I'm sorry, but that's not true. When Padilla was announced, it was front page news. When the seven were busted, it was news. Every major terrorism arrest that has been announced has received intense coverage... and has unravelled in subsequent coverage. The phenomenon is that as a case turns out to be nothing, the coverage fades away. There are probably still people out there who think Padilla really was a dirty bomber.
 
Yes, Hezbollah are terrorists and they are not nice people. In order to distinguish themselves from Hezbollah, does the IDF helicopter in a special forces strike force to surgically remove the threat? No, it just bombs it and calls the resultant dead civilians 'collaterol damage' - one of the most repugnant phrases in the English Language.

The IDF kills way more civilians than Hezbollah and Hamas put together.

Helicopters dont drop bombs.

Just a little FYI there.
 
And they should every single time. Destroying the rocket launcher that fires on your civilians isn't an over reaction. It is the job of a nations army.

Do you understand the concept of a rocket barrage? There is something about odds in there but I'll leave you to figure how that works.

Katyushas, as I understand it, are area affect weapons. Originally built by the Russian military, these sorts of rockets were only accurate to within about a kilometer. The idea was to launch hundreds simultaneously and blanket an area. Given the number of rockets launched at a particular area, the margin of error was irrelevant.

Hezbollah possesses somewhere between 6,000 and 12,000 of these rockets, discounting for the ones used up in the recent war. Their principal advantage for Hezbollah is that they are highly mobile weapons, and can be moved and launched easily.

This makes them almost impossible to track and destroy. They're launched, the site is then abandoned, and Israel bombs an empty target uselessly. Or Israel bombs a bunch of civilians. Israel is well aware that the site will likely be abandoned by the time they get a response there. So they are, equally, well aware that they're both bombing uselessly and bombing civilians.

Why does Israel do this? A couple of reasons. First, it may well be a form of punishment. Israel can't hit Hezbollah, so they punish the civilians. Or it may simply be political, the need to have a response, even if it is useless and counterproductive.

The downside is that they're not particularly accurate, and of minimal effectiveness when used in small numbers of ones and twos. Its relatively easy to target an urban area, but the odds are long that it will actually hit anything important. Of course, Hezbollah lacks the sort of highly detailed target information that would be effective. The effect is more psychological than effective.

Hezbollah also apparently possesses a stockpile of more accurate, more powerful weapons. Some capable of hitting with relative accuracy far into Israel. This stockpile is much smaller, these rockets are far more expensive, more powerful, but more vulnerable to interdiction.

One of Israel's objectives in the 2006 war was to destroy Hezbollahs formidable missile capacity. It failed utterly.

As for Hezbollah, although the Katyushas are of limited practical use, there are a couple of significant effective purposes.

First, the Katyushas, used occasionally and in tit for tat response, make a point. The border is fraught with conflict of the 'he started it, variety.'

Second, in the event of full scale conflict, as in 2006, the Katyushas are used to screen the real hitters, the heavy long range accurate missiles with significant payloads. Fifty or a Hundred Katyushas would be launched in a day, Israel would attempt to respond to all of them. Mixed in would be a couple of the real hitters.

There's no real stopping a missile, of course. But you can use radar to track back to the launch point and blow it up. Not terribly useful if the site is already abandoned. But the heavier, real hitters are not as easy to move or abandon, and they're potentially easier to find in advance. A screen of Katyushas, is essentially like Hezbollah throwing a cloud of biting flies, with a few hornets hidden in the group.

Of course, Hezbollah couldn't send enough missiles to do real military harm or strategic harm to Israel.

But the battle was psychological. Hezbollah demonstrated and kept on demonstrating that it could hit Israel on a relatively massive basis with impunity, and keep on hitting Israel again and again, and that the IDF forces could not stop it. In this sense, Hezbollah won. Even on the final days of the war, it could still keep launching dozens of Katyushas, and by all evaluations, the bulk of Hezbollahs stockpile was intact.

The implication is that, all other things being the same, a new war or renewed war would turn out the same.
 
Ooh, hey--here's another fun statistic I forgot all about until now.

The thing that makes this one really juicy is that this one was not posted by myself. It was posted by my arch-enemy FriendlyFire. I don't have a link, but the general numbers he posted showed that for the first few years after the liberation of Iraq, American troops and Iraqi civilians were on the receiving end of approximately thirty thousand terrorist attacks per year.

Number of people killed by those attacks in those years? Somewhere in the dozens or hundreds. Almost every single one of those terrorist attacks failed.

You didn't see Bush holding a press conference.


Padilla is kind of a terrorist celebrity--an American who turned against us. That's big news. The "deck of cards" terrorists are big names also. But the actual work is done by rank-and-file no-name stooges nobody cares about. Those thirty thousand terrorist attacks basically got no headlines.

How many people did Padilla personally kill, with his own hands, his own bombs, or his own trigger finger? Without even bothering to check, I'll make a guess: none. You see? His newsworthiness had nothing to do with actual attacks. The shock value was in "omigod, he's an American working for Al-Qaeda!!!"
 
The thing that makes this one really juicy is that this one was not posted by myself. It was posted by my arch-enemy FriendlyFire. I don't have a link, but the general numbers he posted showed that for the first few years after the liberation of Iraq, American troops and Iraqi civilians were on the receiving end of approximately thirty thousand terrorist attacks per year.

Number of people killed by those attacks in those years? Somewhere in the dozens or hundreds. Almost every single one of those terrorist attacks failed.

Apples and oranges in so many different ways, its not even funny.

First, you're classifying attacks by an insurgency against military targets as terrorism. I'm sorry, but as unpleasant as this may be to hear, its not terrorism. It's insurgency.

Attacks against civilians and noncombatants may be considered terrorism. But not attacks against military targets.

Secondly, attacks on military targets may only produce a few hundred fatal casualties (between 500 and 1000) per year, and a few thousand (5000 to 15000 say, without bothering to look it up).

However, attacks on civilians are producing major casualties, as the figures on care bombings and suicide bombings will tell anyone.
 
Apples and oranges are both spherical, are about the same size, both grow on trees, are both edible, and both contain seeds.

Attacks against civilians and noncombatants may be considered terrorism.
attacks on civilians are producing major casualties,
The above two lines are why I consider the insurgents terrorists. They're attacking American troops AND Iraqi civilians.
 
Just on the Israel targeting Lebanese civilians topic, which technically has nothing to do with what we're supposed to be talking about: I remember seeing a news story when all that was taking place, where Israeli bombs targeted a house in a residential area. Not a Hezbollah area either, purely Christian civilian territory. But, there was one small catch. The house had a well in the backyard, which they showed photos of, which looked almost exactly like a mobile launcher from the air. Just wondering if there couldn't have been more incidents like this.
 
Just on the Israel targeting Lebanese civilians topic, which technically has nothing to do with what we're supposed to be talking about: I remember seeing a news story when all that was taking place, where Israeli bombs targeted a house in a residential area. Not a Hezbollah area either, purely Christian civilian territory. But, there was one small catch. The house had a well in the backyard, which they showed photos of, which looked almost exactly like a mobile launcher from the air. Just wondering if there couldn't have been more incidents like this.

Probably hundreds we don't even acknowledge or are aware of.
 
Before I respond, i'd like clarification on exactly why you said that.

Because you said:

does the IDF helicopter in a special forces strike force to surgically remove the threat? No, it just bombs it and calls the resultant dead civilians 'collaterol damage'

"It" being the helicopter in how you constructed the comment.
 
Or you could take it for what it is. You know the truth.

So hezbollah deliberately kills civilians just so that they can put some bad PR on Israel.

Unless you can show me some conclusive proof -- not just some vague video about Hezbollah troops in a town or something -- I'll take that as an absurd conspiracy theory.

Also, I've given you credible reports, which state that Israel deliberately and indiscriminately fired upon civilians. That's my proof.

No it doesn't. All it needs is guns and money from Iran.

There's no evidence of this. Even the 9/11 commission could not conclusive prove any operational connection between Iran and Hezbollah, which to me seems to cast suspicion . And of course Hezbollah needs public support -- that's why it has a fairly high public spending, for example.

It's true that Hezbollah has received support from its allies in Tehran, especially early on, when it had to fight against severe oppression. However, currently, Hezbollah has pretty much taken a life of its own, and even if Tehran were to cut its funding (which it has offered to do) for Hezbollah, the organization would continue to operate.

Really/? all of it or just the south?

Well, in the South Hezbollah is very popular, but I can't tell about the north.

Straight from the mouths of those who tried to leave. You know Lebanese.

No, straight from the IDF, those claims were made by the IDF.

Yeah because brutal despot dictators never last long

Yes, but Hezbollah isn't exactly a massive military power, and a lot its support and resources come from the local population. And Hez. is very popular, which does confer it some credence as a leigimate organization.

Yeah because it would be so easy to fight back against such a well armed and funded army.

A lot of Hezbollah's fighters are civilians off-duty.

What serious study is this exactly? What does this study say about hezbola placing rocket launchers in and around civilian structures to maximize civilian death when the IDF destroys them?

The report which I gave on this thread, casts doubt on this claim.
 
Because you said:

"does the IDF helicopter in a special forces strike force to surgically remove the threat? No, it just bombs it and calls the resultant dead civilians 'collaterol damage' "

"It" being the helicopter in how you constructed the comment.
Yes I thought so; you still haven't addressed that comprehension issue have you? Let me parse it a little differently for you:

"Does the IDF helicopter-in a special forces strike force to surgically remove the threat? No, the IDFjust bombs the threat and calls the resultant dead civilians 'collaterol damage'"

The sentence is about two possibilities for IDF behaviour you see. To 'helicopter in' a special forces team is used as a verb not a noun.

I hope that clears things up. :)
 
I don't know that it does, but the plain meaning of the sentence contains no implication that the Helicopter will be dropping bombs. The reference appears to be that the Helicopter will deliver special forces or a strike force to surgically remove the threat.

Conceivably, an armed and armoured helicopter could deliver a surgical strike without touching down, that would be less dangerous to civilians than bombing.

But this whole issue brings up a problem that the IDF is reluctant to address, particularly with Katyushas.

Here's the trick: Katyusha's are highly mobile deployment weapons. They can be moved around quite easily, concealed easily, and bunkered easily. So they are damnably hard to spot. Israel didn't even manage to scratch Hezbollahs stockpile.

Hezbollah is well aware that once a missile is launched, Israel can trace it back and bomb the launch point. By this time, following the war, they've probably accumulated some extremely accurate data on Israeli response times under different variables. Their training and policy once a missile is launched is to get the hell out of there, vamoose, depart, vacate the premises.

Israel then bombs/missiles/raids an empty site. Very frustrating. Well, empty except for whoever is in the neighborhood who is unlucky.

A helicopter gunship, arriving on the place on its own to shoot em up, or deliver a special forces strike force, will in most cases arrive much later than an aircraft dropped bomb, or a targeted missile. So its not actually terribly useful.

By definition, Israel would know all this, and factor it into their decision making.

But this raises a question: If they know that Hezbollah's already bugged out, and all they'll hit is civilians on their counterstrike... isn't that a war crime?

Ah well, so it goes...
 
The knowledgable comments are beginning to come in. This is from a letter to Juan Cole, reprinted on his site.

http://www.juancole.com/

(And if we can just skip the idiotic 'oh, Cole is a left wing site so we can just dismiss him' remarks. It's not Cole's writing. It's a letter sent to him, presumably by someone who knows a bit more than the average bear, or writes convincingly of same.)

Slightly abridged...

The alleged reactor is described, because of its dimensions and shape, as a duplicate of the North Korean reactor at Yongbyon. The reactor at Yongbyon is a rough copy of an old British design. It is graphite-moderated and cooled with gaseous carbon dioxide. Its core is composed of a large number of highly-purified graphite blocks. For example, each of the first two Magnox reactors at Windscale in the UK used 2,000 tons of graphite. Even if this purported Syrian reactor vessel were half the size of one of the original UK reactors, it would require roughly 1,000 tons of graphite. That's 14,400 cubic feet of highly-purified graphite. Would all official entities fail to notice the production and transfer of that amount of highly-refined graphite to Syria?

The voice-over on the CIA videotape asserts that the reactor in Syria was "nearly completed." If the plant were "nearly completed," those graphite blocks would have been substantially in place. Bombing and fire would have spread bits of carbon all over the site, or scattered whole blocks of graphite around the site. The "after" photos didn't seem to indicate that this happened.

If the reactor were substantially complete, neutron-absorbing boron-10 carbide (or possibly cadmium alloy) control rods would have been installed. Had those been burned or exploded in the bombing, those, too, would have left a chemical signature on the hills surrounding the site and in the prevailing winds. As far as I know, this hasn't been discussed.

Then, too, there is the matter of fuel rods. Syria is reported not to have uranium yellowcake stocks in appreciable quantities. (One particularly large phosphorite field, the Charkiet formation, is known to contain uranium, but the phosphate fertilizer plant built to process that ore was done by a Swedish company which would certainly alert the IAEA if there were non-compliant diversion. Moreover, Syria has cooperated with the IAEA in the past to develop its commercial uranium extraction processes, but those have not progressed, according to SIPRI.) There's no evidence presented that Syria has built fuel processing and fuel rod assembly facilities. That would suggest production elsewhere, and such production can be tracked. So, if it was almost complete, where are the fuel rods?

What is shocking in this assertion is the lack of physical evidence available for independent inspection, and the apparent complete failure of U.S. authorities to seek international inspection via the IAEA before the Israelis bombed the site in question, despite the fact that the U.S. was apparently aware of Israeli intentions well ahead of time. Syria has been a ratified signatory of the NPT since 1969, making it obligated to accept inspections.

If, as the CIA asserts, the Syrian facility has been under construction since 2001, there was more than ample time to inform the IAEA of a signatory's possible failure to abide by the treaty. Repeated unannounced overflights of Syrian territory by Israeli jets in recent years indicates long-term planning of this mission.

The CIA video depends heavily upon computer models, and those models add substantial pieces of equipment not shown in the photos of the "nearly completed" facility. Remember that Colin Powell depended upon artists' renderings of "mobile bioweapons labs" instead of physical evidence, and that Rumsfeld used cartoonish illustrations to show lavish al-Qaeda complexes, replete with living quarters, office space, truck parking and ventilating systems, like the Islamist equivalent of Cheyenne Mountain, buried inside Tora Bora. Those, too, were never found.

One more final consideration: the Yongbyon reactor, from the descriptions by inspectors in 1994, is a real hunk of junk, by contemporary standards. The inspectors could tell from the condition of the spent fuel rods that there were many operating problems and shutdowns because of problems. Nuclear safety at the site was marginal to non-existent.
 
Then there's this piece in Counterpunch by John Farley, linked to by Cole. Again, an abridged version is provided.

Last fall, journalist Laura Rozen spoke with Joseph Cirincione, director of nuclear policy at the Center for American Progress. Cirincione says

"In attacking Dair el Zor in Syria on Sept. 6, the Israeli air force wasn’t targeting a nuclear site but rather one of the main arms depots in the country. Dair el Zor houses a huge underground base where the Syrian army stores the long and medium-range missiles it mostly buys from Iran and North Korea. The attack by the Israeli air force coincided with the arrival of a stock of parts for Syria’s 200 Scud B and 60 Scud C weapons."

I'm not sure what the Center for American Progress is. Seems to be one of those ubiquitous think tanks which clutter up Washington.

http://www.americanprogress.org/

Seems they maintain a National Security brief.

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security

As for Dair El Zor, the theory that its a weapons depot has been around almost since the beginning, and appears to be taken as credible by at least some international intelligence agencies. The Weapons Depot theory shows up in a lot of web traffic, here are a couple of representative sites. Of course, we all know that everything on the Internet, including unicorns, is gospel truth. But... its at least worth considering.

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1646/ah-they-were-scuds

http://www.intelligenceonline.com/I...ANG&service=ART&context=BOI&doc_i_id=33500101

Cirincione says that there is a small Syrian nuclear research program, which has been around for 40 years and is going nowhere. "It is a basic research program built around a tiny 30 kilowatt reactor that produced a few isotopes and neutrons. It is nowhere near a program for nuclear weapons or nuclear fuel," he said. Over a dozen countries have helped Syria develop its nuclear program, including Belgium, Germany, Russia, China and even the United States, by way of training of scientists, he said.

This is more along the lines of what I've heard, and what I would have expected.

So what is really going on here? Cirincione told the BBC that "This appears to be the work of a small group of officials leaking cherry-picked, unvetted 'intelligence' to key reporters in order to promote a preexisting political agenda."

In regard to these comments, see my previous remarks about the 'anonymity' of both Senior Intelligence officials. The lack of independent expert assessment. And the empty 'film review quality' assessments of presumably inexpert anonymous congressional aides presented as support.

You had a fishy presentation, given by anonymous people to people other anonymous who were not professionally skilled to assess it, where those who were expert were simply left out.
 
Very interesting posts Den, thank you. Seems to raise quite a few questions about the validity of this supposed 'intelligence.' One does wonder why the US and Israel would want to attack Syria if this is true though. What else could the facility have been, I wonder?

I do love the reference to Al Qaeda having their own Cheyenne Mountain though. That's preposterous. Rumsfeld never once claimed Al Qaeda had a Stargate.
 
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