Any guess on what will happen to Erdo-Turkey now that it downed a russian plane?

Realistically NATO should eject turkey from the alliance, they are nothing but a liability at this point and are an ally of non state actors which have attacked NATO members. They won't unfortunately

Fortunately I doubt much of anything comes of this other than hurting turkey's prestige. Russia isn't looking for war with the west and turkey is too much of a screw up to legitimately get NATO backing if Russia did foolishly do something
 
Daw said:
And that might be particularly what?
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Turkish support for ISIS and their shelling of the Peshmerga and other Kurd military elements in Syria.

hobbsyoyo said:
There has been reports and warnings from the Turks for weeks about violations of their airspace. But I don't think this was a calculated move by Russia to push the boundaries of Turkish resolve.
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Yeah, I don't think so either, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Putin was all "Okay guys, don't do anything too stupid, but if you have to fly through Turkish airspace for a couple seconds here and there to accomplish your objectives, that's fine by me."
 
I worry, though, that Turkey might cause even more trouble if kicked out of NATO. That nationalist Erdogan just won again, and if Turkey were kicked out, he'd probably say that Turkey was being punished for defending its sacred territory and the lives of its people, and that as the world turns against it, Turks must stand together and rely on Turkish strength alone. And maybe more deals with East Asia. Something like that. Wouldn't want to see a potentially unstable state with 80 million people and a huge military go rogue...
 
Yeah, Washington is not going to let go of Turkey as an ally no matter what happens here (I mean, excluding highly unlikely crazy scenarios). If the U.S. lets go of Turkey somebody else is going to step in and bed them instead. That's how it works with hot girls and that's how it works with strategically valuable countries with regionally imposing militaries at their disposal.
 
Turkey though is a girl who looks hot until you actually see her up close. It's in a key geographical location.... Which it many times will refuse to let allies use. It has a large military.... That it will often refuse to field for allies and often utilizes poorly and for the wrong side. Basically they look like a great ally, but reality is they simply are not. Some other sphere like China could absorb them in principle but promptly not get a ton out of it
 
warpus said:
In ways that would get them to stop what they're doing in Syria and with ISIS, but wouldn't negatively impact your average Turkish citizen.
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Daw said:
And that might be particularly what?
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warpus said:
Turkish support for ISIS and their shelling of the Peshmerga and other Kurd military elements in Syria.
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No, my "what" question above was not about what Turkey does wrong but about what ways are there for the West stop them doing that without negatively effecting my average Turkish citizen.

Borachio said:
And strictly speaking, a plane violating Turkish air space - without good cause - is going to come to grief sooner or later, or Turkey is going to look foolish.
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What about looking friendly?

warpus said:
it wouldn't surprise me at all if Putin was all "Okay guys, don't do anything too stupid, but if you have to fly through Turkish airspace for a couple seconds here and there to accomplish your objectives, that's fine by me."
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I somehow doubt Putin was personally briefing the pilots. :nope:
 
It is very natural that violating borders of any country can not be tolerated. Putin claims that the Russian jet weren't acting on bad purpose. So what, they are acting on good purpose and we will let them fly in our borders? Ridiculous.
 
hobbsyoyo said:
I don't think anything will happen long-term. Russia will piss and moan but I'm sorry, this is what you get with combat operations. Not everything can go perfectly to plan and *gasp* mishaps and accidents happen and you lose people. I'm not being flippant, it's just that if they are not expecting losses and if they are also operating dangerously close to a well-armed state that they are not fully co-operating with then they are just foolish. Now I don't think the Russians are foolish. To some extent they have to piss and moan and protest but that will be it.
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There are a couple of reasons why the above may not be what will happen (or even the likely scenario at all) :

1) Turkey is not a superpower, nor is it really something the US will go to nuclear war for (in fact i don't think the US - or anyone else - would go to nuclear war for anything short of defending their own country currently). It is not tied to reality to think that in this context Turkey can afford to down a russian plane due to 'defend the homeland from planes over Syria!' or whatever.

2) Turkish current gov may be better in some stuff than similar govs it had in the past (when the West was oblivious to it all) but it is very bad in other stuff, including being at least equally terrible at human rights as those before it, and being religiously oriented and feeding sentiment for a civil war there for 2 years now. So if Russia (or others) want to bring it down they can do that without using the military anyway.

3) Turkey is a major part of the illegal immigration crisis in the EU, given virtually all illegals to Greece enter through Turkey and re-enter if deported, cause Turkey actively allows and encourages them to reach the EU through Greece.

4) We are moving closer to a dangerous world war situation with each new conflict, so maybe it would be something to calm things down if the west allows Turkey to be humbled diplomatically (likely scenario in my view), yet Erdogan will react badly to this, so it can cause civil unrest in Turkey anyway.

5) Last (and not least, but not foremost either) keep in mind that Nato can only take an active stance (in the case of non-unprovoked war, which something tells me is not the scenario anyway) if ALL members agree to it. Now it won't just be Greece, but have you checked who our arms forces minister is? Hint: he would be more than happy to let Erdogan burn to the ground, or rather with us annexing eastern Thrace as well :p (by which i mean he won't agree to anything pro-Turkey OR anti-Russia, and if he leaves gov the gov falls, so that ain't happening either).

So yeah, i think that the citizens in Turkey are likely to face serious heat. Don't know how it will play out of course.
 
Turkey uses EU. Turkey uses ISIS and associated groups. Turkey is starting to use NATO now. Then they will overthrow Erdogan or merely demonize him after his rule ends, while keeping all the exploits.
 
Borachio said:
What could Putin actually do, without, as has been pointed out, starting WW3?
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There are actually several options to consider.
Open fire at Turkish aircraft next time when they make another incursion in Armenian airspace, for instance.
Or support independent Kurdish state, including supplying weapons for them and providing air defense. Assad won't mind, I'm sure.
It only depends on how much Putin will decide to escalate all this.
 
red_elk said:
There are actually several options to consider.
Open fire at Turkish aircraft next time when they make another incursion in Armenian airspace, for instance.
Or support independent Kurdish state, including supplying weapons for them and providing air defense. Assad won't mind, I'm sure.
It only depends on how much Putin will decide to escalate all this.
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Oh, i think the kurdish state support will happen anyway, if not openly then covertly.
 
red_elk said:
Or support independent Kurdish state, including supplying weapons for them and providing air defense. Assad won't mind, I'm sure.
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Not yet. Russia might consider dropping Assad. He won't come out of the crisis with the power he had. Russia might. America has already lost at any rate, whether Assad stays or goes.

The current conflict may appear complicated, though it isn't: It's a group piñata game, the first one to get the goodies from the piñata wins. The piñata is this case not Syria or IS, but the entire Middle-East. Russia is winning. The European Union makes a chance still.
 
Aleksey_aka_al said:
The thing with Kurds is that one part of them is under American influence, the other one is Marxist. The Kremlin is too anti-Marxist...
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The PKK ditched Marxism years ago--at least, Öcalan did. And the Rojavan Kurds in Syria are neither Marxist nor particularly US-backed.
 
Aleksey_aka_al said:
Well, if so, then it is a nice example of how Muslim rebel groups remain not Islamist when not backed by the US...
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The Rojavans are neither particularly Muslim nor a rebel group. They're a confederation of largely independent cities, towns, and other areas in Northern Syria. Largely Kurdish and with a lot of Muslims but also plenty of Christians. They insist they're an autonomous part of Syria. The US supports them with air strikes and I believe weapons and supplies, but as they're not a state and have no interest in becoming one, that's basically where the support ends.
 
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