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Any guess on what will happen to Erdo-Turkey now that it downed a russian plane?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Kyriakos, Nov 24, 2015.

  1. kramerfan86

    kramerfan86 Chieftain

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    Realistically NATO should eject turkey from the alliance, they are nothing but a liability at this point and are an ally of non state actors which have attacked NATO members. They won't unfortunately

    Fortunately I doubt much of anything comes of this other than hurting turkey's prestige. Russia isn't looking for war with the west and turkey is too much of a screw up to legitimately get NATO backing if Russia did foolishly do something
     
  2. warpus

    warpus In pork I trust

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    Turkish support for ISIS and their shelling of the Peshmerga and other Kurd military elements in Syria.

    Yeah, I don't think so either, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Putin was all "Okay guys, don't do anything too stupid, but if you have to fly through Turkish airspace for a couple seconds here and there to accomplish your objectives, that's fine by me."
     
  3. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

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    I worry, though, that Turkey might cause even more trouble if kicked out of NATO. That nationalist Erdogan just won again, and if Turkey were kicked out, he'd probably say that Turkey was being punished for defending its sacred territory and the lives of its people, and that as the world turns against it, Turks must stand together and rely on Turkish strength alone. And maybe more deals with East Asia. Something like that. Wouldn't want to see a potentially unstable state with 80 million people and a huge military go rogue...
     
  4. warpus

    warpus In pork I trust

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    Yeah, Washington is not going to let go of Turkey as an ally no matter what happens here (I mean, excluding highly unlikely crazy scenarios). If the U.S. lets go of Turkey somebody else is going to step in and bed them instead. That's how it works with hot girls and that's how it works with strategically valuable countries with regionally imposing militaries at their disposal.
     
  5. TheJ0K3R

    TheJ0K3R Chieftain

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  6. kramerfan86

    kramerfan86 Chieftain

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    Turkey though is a girl who looks hot until you actually see her up close. It's in a key geographical location.... Which it many times will refuse to let allies use. It has a large military.... That it will often refuse to field for allies and often utilizes poorly and for the wrong side. Basically they look like a great ally, but reality is they simply are not. Some other sphere like China could absorb them in principle but promptly not get a ton out of it
     
  7. Daw

    Daw Chieftain

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    No, my "what" question above was not about what Turkey does wrong but about what ways are there for the West stop them doing that without negatively effecting my average Turkish citizen.

    What about looking friendly?

    I somehow doubt Putin was personally briefing the pilots. :nope:
     
  8. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Warlord

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  9. TheJ0K3R

    TheJ0K3R Chieftain

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    It is very natural that violating borders of any country can not be tolerated. Putin claims that the Russian jet weren't acting on bad purpose. So what, they are acting on good purpose and we will let them fly in our borders? Ridiculous.
     
  10. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    There are a couple of reasons why the above may not be what will happen (or even the likely scenario at all) :

    1) Turkey is not a superpower, nor is it really something the US will go to nuclear war for (in fact i don't think the US - or anyone else - would go to nuclear war for anything short of defending their own country currently). It is not tied to reality to think that in this context Turkey can afford to down a russian plane due to 'defend the homeland from planes over Syria!' or whatever.

    2) Turkish current gov may be better in some stuff than similar govs it had in the past (when the West was oblivious to it all) but it is very bad in other stuff, including being at least equally terrible at human rights as those before it, and being religiously oriented and feeding sentiment for a civil war there for 2 years now. So if Russia (or others) want to bring it down they can do that without using the military anyway.

    3) Turkey is a major part of the illegal immigration crisis in the EU, given virtually all illegals to Greece enter through Turkey and re-enter if deported, cause Turkey actively allows and encourages them to reach the EU through Greece.

    4) We are moving closer to a dangerous world war situation with each new conflict, so maybe it would be something to calm things down if the west allows Turkey to be humbled diplomatically (likely scenario in my view), yet Erdogan will react badly to this, so it can cause civil unrest in Turkey anyway.

    5) Last (and not least, but not foremost either) keep in mind that Nato can only take an active stance (in the case of non-unprovoked war, which something tells me is not the scenario anyway) if ALL members agree to it. Now it won't just be Greece, but have you checked who our arms forces minister is? Hint: he would be more than happy to let Erdogan burn to the ground, or rather with us annexing eastern Thrace as well :p (by which i mean he won't agree to anything pro-Turkey OR anti-Russia, and if he leaves gov the gov falls, so that ain't happening either).

    So yeah, i think that the citizens in Turkey are likely to face serious heat. Don't know how it will play out of course.
     
  11. Aleksey_aka_al

    Aleksey_aka_al Smiley

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    Turkey uses EU. Turkey uses ISIS and associated groups. Turkey is starting to use NATO now. Then they will overthrow Erdogan or merely demonize him after his rule ends, while keeping all the exploits.
     
  12. red_elk

    red_elk Warlord

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    There are actually several options to consider.
    Open fire at Turkish aircraft next time when they make another incursion in Armenian airspace, for instance.
    Or support independent Kurdish state, including supplying weapons for them and providing air defense. Assad won't mind, I'm sure.
    It only depends on how much Putin will decide to escalate all this.
     
  13. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Oh, i think the kurdish state support will happen anyway, if not openly then covertly.
     
  14. Tahuti

    Tahuti Writing Deity

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    Not yet. Russia might consider dropping Assad. He won't come out of the crisis with the power he had. Russia might. America has already lost at any rate, whether Assad stays or goes.

    The current conflict may appear complicated, though it isn't: It's a group piñata game, the first one to get the goodies from the piñata wins. The piñata is this case not Syria or IS, but the entire Middle-East. Russia is winning. The European Union makes a chance still.
     
  15. Aleksey_aka_al

    Aleksey_aka_al Smiley

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    The thing with Kurds is that one part of them is under American influence, the other one is Marxist. The Kremlin is too anti-Marxist...
     
  16. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

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    The PKK ditched Marxism years ago--at least, Öcalan did. And the Rojavan Kurds in Syria are neither Marxist nor particularly US-backed.
     
  17. Daw

    Daw Chieftain

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    Yeah, I believe Turkey can be turned into yet another hot spot. But aren't there enough already?
     
  18. Aleksey_aka_al

    Aleksey_aka_al Smiley

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    Well, if so, then it is a nice example of how Muslim rebel groups remain not Islamist/terrorist when not backed by the US...
     
  19. warpus

    warpus In pork I trust

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    Well, obviously not directly, no. I thought that much was obvious.
     
  20. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

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    The Rojavans are neither particularly Muslim nor a rebel group. They're a confederation of largely independent cities, towns, and other areas in Northern Syria. Largely Kurdish and with a lot of Muslims but also plenty of Christians. They insist they're an autonomous part of Syria. The US supports them with air strikes and I believe weapons and supplies, but as they're not a state and have no interest in becoming one, that's basically where the support ends.
     

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