Any guess on what will happen to Erdo-Turkey now that it downed a russian plane?
- Thread starter Kyriakos
- Start date
While one of threads below is full of your rants about Russia's actions in Ukraine, completely ignoring thousands of Donbass people killed by Ukrainian government. It's just amazing how one of the most blatant hypocrites here is blaming others in being hypocrites
^ You said you were going to grab popcorn and not care. I encourage you to actually do it.
warpus
In pork I trust
lol just saw this on reddit
some guy said:
Rashiminos
Fool Prophet
It could irk you that someone, somewhere (or for the advanced case, several people in several places knowingly collaborated) timed this particular incident to allow that joke to come to mind.
Akka
Moody old mage.
Akka
Moody old mage.
Uh, obviously.
And in the same way, if Al-Quaeda and ISIL start shooting at each other, I will also grab my pop-corn and cheer for each to punch the other's light out, without caring for any of them, but still caring for what happens to Syria overall and still aware that their fight will affect the situation - just that I don't see anything good coming from either of them about actually resolving it in a positive fashion.
I don't really see the contradiction here.
And in the same way, if Al-Quaeda and ISIL start shooting at each other, I will also grab my pop-corn and cheer for each to punch the other's light out, without caring for any of them, but still caring for what happens to Syria overall and still aware that their fight will affect the situation - just that I don't see anything good coming from either of them about actually resolving it in a positive fashion.
I don't really see the contradiction here.
Akka
Moody old mage.
Honestly no idea here. Syria is a tangled mess and I don't see any good outcome which doesn't come straight from wishfulfillment-fantasyland.
Assad is a dirtbag who is the entire reason of this mess in the first place (he could have prevented it all with only loosening the grip, but because of his power rave now millions of people pay the price).
ISIL is worse than him.
The moderates are the most sympathetic side, but they seem to be the weakest and there is a VERY porous line between them and the hardliners.
Russia is using the fight against ISIL to just obliterate all opponents (including said moderate) to keep their "good friend" Assad in position.
Turkey is using ISIL to remove Assad from his position.
Both are run by all but in name autocrats pushing their personality cult and destroying their democratic institutions.
Both are idiots playing with fire while sitting on a barrel of gunpowder (and oil).
Two thoroughly disgusting protagonists, with both their involvement and their withdrawal bringing bad things from one point or another. And if they punch each other, it's not just two bullies blooding their noses, it's lots of dead people.
I guess the only side I can really root for is the Kurds.
I usually really dislike separatists, but I make an exception here : they got an actual entire people with its own culture and a long claim and occupation of the land, and they already are pretty much independant in both Syria and Iraq.
And they kick ISIL butt and seem pretty religiously moderate, even progressive.
But of course, Turkey will never accept losing 10 % of its territory to an independant Kurdistan.
Assad is a dirtbag who is the entire reason of this mess in the first place (he could have prevented it all with only loosening the grip, but because of his power rave now millions of people pay the price).
ISIL is worse than him.
The moderates are the most sympathetic side, but they seem to be the weakest and there is a VERY porous line between them and the hardliners.
Russia is using the fight against ISIL to just obliterate all opponents (including said moderate) to keep their "good friend" Assad in position.
Turkey is using ISIL to remove Assad from his position.
Both are run by all but in name autocrats pushing their personality cult and destroying their democratic institutions.
Both are idiots playing with fire while sitting on a barrel of gunpowder (and oil).
Two thoroughly disgusting protagonists, with both their involvement and their withdrawal bringing bad things from one point or another. And if they punch each other, it's not just two bullies blooding their noses, it's lots of dead people.
I guess the only side I can really root for is the Kurds.
I usually really dislike separatists, but I make an exception here : they got an actual entire people with its own culture and a long claim and occupation of the land, and they already are pretty much independant in both Syria and Iraq.
And they kick ISIL butt and seem pretty religiously moderate, even progressive.
But of course, Turkey will never accept losing 10 % of its territory to an independant Kurdistan.
Rashiminos
Fool Prophet
If only Assad would accede to a regime change... (language and actions to promote that outcome.)
Zkribbler
Deity
While one of threads below is full of your rants about Russia's actions in Ukraine, completely ignoring thousands of Donbass people killed by Ukrainian government. It's just amazing how one of the most blatant hypocrites here is blaming others in being hypocrites
I too am shocked, shocked that the elected government of Ukraine will not stand idly by while pro-Russian puppets shoot down people who disagree with them, declare their "independence," appoint themselves as overlords, seize military bases, shell cities and villages, allow Russian mercenaries to join them, hold sham elections and shoot down airliners.
My hot take was similar to what was posted on the first page and throughout--this was about Russia flexing its muscle around neighboring countries. Turns out someone punched the bully back for once.
I do find it interesting that Putin is sticking to his anti-ISIS line when its abundantly clear the missions are targeting other non-ISIS rebel groups in Syria to prop up the Assad regime.
I do find it interesting that Putin is sticking to his anti-ISIS line when its abundantly clear the missions are targeting other non-ISIS rebel groups in Syria to prop up the Assad regime.
Obviously, he currently can't afford the luxury of admitting that outcome. However, during his meeting with Putin in Moscow they touched that subject carefully and it was vaguely mentioned that it is to be returned to after the war. IIRC, Putin said in the following press-conference that he doesn't mind Assad go, and that Assad doesn't mind running elections for people to decide whether he goes or stays.
Given the circumstances, it's almost a promise and actually the most in a way of "yes" they could tell.
Thanks for sincerity. And an interesting viewpoint. In fact, it largely matches my own. At least in the basic layout.
As for conclusions, when there's no black and white I go for darker/lighter, and when there's no "all at once" option I go in steps.
Assad sure is no candy on a stick. But no one is. He fights the greater of the evils there, the ISIS. Moreover, he represents the most formidable force there to fight the ISIS, the army. Moreover, legally, he is the President of the country, so his forces are the only legal armed forces there.
Moderates have two disadvantages:
First, they are a loosely affiliated group. Such groups tend to be fragile and fall in fragments when pressure is too hard, or when they're getting the upper hand and start fighting over the fruit of victory while victory has not yet been achieved, or just due to some internal reasons clear to only them alone. It makes them unreliable.
Second, they are in fact not that moderate, meaning that they fight for their ideas not in the parliament or on meetings, but running around with AKs and RPGs in hands and shooting the government forces so much that they control big part of the country.
This is not good by any standards, but here it is worse because it does not help fighting ISIS. In fact, it hinders it, because Assad has to fight both.
Besides, Assad, being the President, officially called for Russian help. Would be quite strange if Russians were helping not him but the moderates instead.
Finally, AFAIK Kurds are considered Assad's allies for this campaign. I am also sympathizing them most of all, and what's good enough for them is good enough for me.
So, IMO the scheme of actions is as follows:
1. Help Assad & Co. to deal with ISIS. And also those of the moderates who are insufficiently moderate and attempt powergrab in the turmoil instead of fighting the common enemy*, pacifying** the country and addressing other issues later.
2. When that's done, disarm the moderates: opposition is good in the parliament and bad in the field.
3. Hold elections. Whoever wins, gets the ruins to rebuild according to their taste.
* If they don't see ISIS as enemy, they are enemies themselves.
** If they prefer war to peace for their country, they are apparently enemies too.
What do you think?
You mean, will not stand idly, but launch artillery and rocket shelling of cities full of "pro-Russian puppets"? You guys are giving carte blanche to Ukrainian "elected government" for far worse things that Assad has been doing to Syrian civilians and don't even see staggering amount of hypocrisy and selective blindness in your position.
Akka
Moody old mage.
Err...
I agree with your first point. They have tried to unify themselves, but they are still fragmented, and the worst is that they are fragmented up to Al-Qaeda affiliates - the porous line I talked before.
On the rest though, I'm afraid you're wrong. Moderate and ISIL actually do often fight each others. They just tend to fight Assad first.
Also, they DID try to peacefully protest in the beginning, remember ? It turned into a civil war because Assad DID refuse the parliamentary thing and sent the army. They were not trying to secede, they were not trying to kill everyone, they just wanted reforms. You can't really tell them they should not fight and take it to the urns when Assad was the one refusing to do it and starting the fight.
Supporting Assad directly is just not morally acceptable. The guy has just too much pointless blood on his hand and too much responsability. ISIL might be worse, but it still doesn't make it right. Assad will be happy to let anyone punch ISIL anyway (it's to his benefit after all), so I think what the coalition did (striking ISIL only while Assad and the coalition just keep out of each other way) is the best compromise.
Also, there is absolutely no possible way to trust Assad to hold fair elections and to treat fairly the rebels once they are disarmed. Let's be serious here. Are we really looking at the same war crimes and atrocities-ridden war here ? And forgetting how it started in the first place ?
I'd say the only possibility (however remote) I can see, is to have Assad go, with possibly a few of the most hated government figures, and then the moderate rebels and the Assad-less government reconcile, get legal foreign help and kick ISIL out of everywhere. Then they hold election with independant checks and try to rebuild the country.
Putin might even get a nice PR move out of it, by providing shelter for Assad (only way he would ever even imagine accepting the deal) and showing himself as the guy who managed to bring peace through negociation.
It's all still pretty much pie in the sky, note. But that's the only remotely possible scenario I can imagine.
Your winnings, sir.
Rashiminos
Fool Prophet
We're not. Who did what where is another whole set of points of contention. Welcome back to 2013. Let's again try to figure out why the US skipped playing its hand (ie folded).
Berzerker
Deity
Obama screwed up, instead of lamenting the shoot down he blamed Russia for sticking its nose into Syria
that was stoopid
that was stoopid
Tahuti
Writing Deity
- Joined
- Nov 17, 2005
- Messages
- 9,492
IS is Hitler, Assad is Stalin. Take your pick.
