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Are You Going to Watch the Debates?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Paul in Saudi, Jun 26, 2019.

?

Will You Watch?

  1. No

  2. Yes, Live

  3. Yes, afterwards

  4. I will wait for Jimmy Kimmel to tell me what happened.

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    Wasn't that effectively the polling numbers for Hillary in 2008? Then the voting started and things coalesced around Obama who hadn't really been able to challenge her poll lead before that. Or am I misremembering?
     
  2. Owen Glyndwr

    Owen Glyndwr La Femme Moderne

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    CNN had the following in Nov 2-4, 2007 (roughly the same point in the election cycle):

    Hillary Clinton - 42%
    Barack Obama - 23%
    John Edwards - 14%
    Bill Richardson - 4%
    Joe Biden - 3%
    Chris Dodd - 2%
    Dennis Kucinich - 2%
    Mike Gravel - 1%

    Barack Obama didn't crest 40% in a poll until January 30-February 1, 2008 (at the same time that he for the first time was leading in some polls). This was shortly following the South Carolina primary, which Obama won decisively, and nearly a month after the Iowa caucuses, which Obama (narrowly) won in dramatic fashion despite every national poll up to that point showing him an 8-10 point underdog.
     
  3. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Deity

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    Now I'm really confused.
    Are people actually serious about Hillary getting anywhere near the numbers to run?
    I thought that the Democratic Party would be so riven, so vehemently against her, that she couldn't muster anywhere near the required numbers for the final nomination.
    Or is there some arcane DNC magic spell that can be cast by party grandees that quadruples her nomination votes?
     
  4. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

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    Who is currently at 23% except for the stale ones.
    But yeah, I guess there's still hope.
     
  5. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    No, I'm comparing today's polling with the old polling of 2008 and 2016 to show that the polls of today are not that important or indicative of the final result this far out from voting. Hillary was up at this point in 2008 but still lost. Trump only won primaries in 2016 because of first past the post and therefore only got outright majorities in a couple of states voting results and polls, yet was clearly the winner in the end.
     
  6. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    I'd be shocked if she'd get anything other than a token following out of the Biden bunch. Nobody really wants to relive 2016's lesser of two evils BS.
     
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  7. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    Hawaii's full of right wing Trump voters

    Is Owen a right winger too? Hell I'm not even right wing (the compass test said so) or a Trump voter. I'm a Jimmy Dore fan because he's funny, seems honest and doesn't support war mongers. Who did you vote for the last couple of presidential elections? Do you think Tulsi and Dore are to their right? I'm sure many right wingers and centrists would depart from them on a variety of domestic issues, foreign policy built this bridge connecting left and right.

    Thats true for the pro war crowd as well, thats how we got a Republican administration lying us into a war to remove Saddam followed by a Democrat administration starting wars to overthrow governments in Libya and Syria. Didn't you vote for Obama and Clinton but Tulsi isn't sufficiently anti-war for your likes?

    And why is that relevant if you weren't trying to smear him with guilt by association? I think I found out about Dore from other posters here, maybe it was Friendly Fire or Kyriakos.
     
  8. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    Who did you check with? So you dont watch Dore because he's a white man, but you invoked me instead?

    But no white men of course
     
  9. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I do hope this isn't true, though. I mean, in at least semi-civilized countries, those in government are potentially immune for the duration they are in government ONLY if the accusation is about their governmental responsibilities :p
     
  10. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    AFAIK only France has a system that stalls all ongoing investigations on the president during his presidency
     
  11. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    they're called super delegates
     
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  12. Zkribbler

    Zkribbler Deity

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    Although Berzerker guesses superdelegates, they make up only 15% of the total delegates, and they're independent, not some great voting bloc.

    The only people talking about a Hillay candidacy is Fox News,
     
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  13. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    Don't they tend to vote in a bloc though?
     
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  14. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    they may be 15% but dont they count for more?

    somebody here said they changed the rules, super delegates have to vote for the primary winner but are free to vote as they please if no one wins on the 1st ballot

    or something like that
     
  15. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Deity

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    Thanks for your other reply.
    I understand that super-delegates can play a large role, but I'm still not convinced that they would be all in favour of endorsing Hillary and that the numbers they could bring would be enough. Shrug. But weirder things have happened in US politics. :)
     
  16. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    IIRC superdelegates can't vote in the first round of voting this time around
     
  17. Owen Glyndwr

    Owen Glyndwr La Femme Moderne

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    So, yeah, People's Policy Project just did a quick breakdown of how to fund a M4A program, and more or less came to the conclusion I outlined above. All current public funding gets redirected into M4A funding, and that already gets you halfway there. Cut capital gains loopholes and remove itemized deductions. That gets you to 2.8T/yr for funding M4A just through existing funding and closing loopholes that are really only materially relevant to rich people. If you ratchet up the income taxes 6-7 points at each income level, then that 2.8T goes up to 3.6T. Yes it's raising taxes, but it net benefits citizens as regards costs, cf. this graph from the article:

    Spoiler :


    And that's just with a simple flat tax increase across the board. Even here you're only net-losing out on healthcare costs at the 85th percentile and above, and even at the 99th percentile, the added costs are a rather marginal proportion of their overall earnings.

    After employee income taxes, the last component is upping payroll taxes, which 3P says would need to go up by about 13 percentage points to hit 4.5T (after redirecting current employer medicare contributions and closing the SocSec payroll tax cap). Which would take the effective payroll tax rate up to 20.85%. Which seems dramatic, but would actually be lower for the vast majority of employers when you compare current employer payments to private plans against the new payroll tax straight up. In aggregate current Private Employer healthcare expenses are currently 1.194T/yr ($235B for Medicare taxes and $959B for contributions to private healthcare premiums), and under 3P's framework, that would go down to $892B (the same $235B from current Medicare taxes, plus $657B from the new payroll tax increase). Net this would save private employers $302B in healthcare expenses.

    So to reiterate: Buttigieg's and Biden's and Klobuchar's criticism of M4A as being unfeasibly expensive is dumb and bad.
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2019
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  18. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    There is a Democratic Debate on right now, live streaming on MSNBC and NBC's websites.
     
  19. MagisterCultuum

    MagisterCultuum Great Sage

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    Why can't they stream in a way that lets you back up to the start? I missed the first half hour because my mom's blood sugar was crashing. It is back to normal now, but I wish I could go back to see the start.

    Also, I am use to listening to everything at double speed and find it really annoying to hear the candidates talking so slowly. They should really give us playback speed options.

    Edit: How could Warren stand next to Biden and bring up how so many people are burdened with students loans that cannot be forgiven without mentioning that Biden (when he was the "Senator from MBNA") is the one who wrote the bill that made it impossible to discharge such debts in bankruptcy?

    When Biden bragged about his support from Black Voters because "they know him" someone really should have interjected that name recognition is really the only thing he has going for him, and that Obama most certainly did not pick him to appeal to Black voters but to assuage the fears of white racists.


    I really don't understand why Gabbard would close talking about MLK but bring up an obscure quote about Hawaii's aloha spirit rather than quoting from his speeches supporting her policy positions. Mentioning his support for a UBI could have been nice too, but the strongest line she could have quoted was probably from his sermon against the Vietnam War:

    "And don't let anybody make you think that God chose America as his divine, messianic force to be a sort of policeman of the whole world. God has a way of standing before the nations with judgment, and it seems that I can hear God saying to America, "You're too arrogant! And if you don't change your ways, I will rise up and break the backbone of your power, and I'll place it in the hands of a nation that doesn't even know my name."
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2019
  20. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    Apparently Klobucher was trending the most after this debate.

    Biden probably needs to go away.
     

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