Australia Votes

Kevin07 or Jonhy?


  • Total voters
    74
Liberals have offered 34 billion dollars worth of tax cuts...

I would rather see that invested in infrastructure etc than risk upward pressure on interest rates (and yes, I realize such investment also puts some pressure on, but we really need help funding things here in SEQ).

I want to see labor win in the lower house. And either the green or democrats holding the balance of power in the upper house.
 
Liberals have offered 34 billion dollars worth of tax cuts...

I would rather see that invested in infrastructure etc than risk upward pressure on interest rates (and yes, I realize such investment also puts some pressure on, but we really need help funding things here in SEQ).

I want to see labor win in the lower house. And either the green or democrats holding the balance of power in the upper house.

I'm so over tax cuts. There are serious issues we need to face like climate change/drought, education and health. We need a government who's going to act. And yes, Howard government says they are for lower interest rates but the evidence is not there.
 
I will vote for the Greens with hesitation because I don't like their insistence on saying Sorry to the stolen generation and their stance on the war. I mean really stop trying to portray yourselves as hippies. The environment is a serious issue and if you want people to take you seriously as a potential #2 party you need to let go of these trivial issues like saying sorry.
 
I'll probably vote Labour for the Lower House and Greens for the Upper House. In the poll I voted Greens.

The Liberals would be barely tolerable if they weren't trying to buy themselves back in with a bunch of crappy tax cuts. I'd rather the money be spent on roads, hospitals and education.

@ OP, why would you even put the Democrats in the poll? They are pretty much dead now.
 
@ OP, why would you even put the Democrats in the poll? They are pretty much dead now.


I put them as they were a major force once, and may still come in. But i doubt it.

I would vote for the greens if i could, but not this election.
 
In the real world outside CFC OT, a lot are going to be voting for the Coalition. Just as last time, it will matter on an individual seat basis. Out here, it is likely to be well over 95% for the Coalition. Frankly, Labor have nothing for the farming communities.
 
Silly question from a world away, but what do you all mean when you say some minor party gets the "Balance of Power" in your Senate? I'm assuming that it means these elected officials get to choose who they caucus/coalition with to tip the scales towards who they'd want to run the Senate.

It also sounds like the Senate is based on proportional voting whereas your lower house is based on individual districts. How does well does it represent the popular will?
 
Generally speaking in the Upper House neither the Liberals nor Labour get a majority of seats. Instead to get any legislation passed, the government needs to convince the minor parties who hold the "balance of power" to support the legislation. It, by and large, prevented bad legislation going through and thus stopped the government from doing whatever they wanted to do. Typically that was held by the Democrats in days past but they ****ed themselves up spectacularily. The Greens and Family First are now likely to obtain the "balance of power".
 
Silly question from a world away, but what do you all mean when you say some minor party gets the "Balance of Power" in your Senate? I'm assuming that it means these elected officials get to choose who they caucus/coalition with to tip the scales towards who they'd want to run the Senate.

It also sounds like the Senate is based on proportional voting whereas your lower house is based on individual districts. How does well does it represent the popular will?

Lower house (the House of Representatives) represents popular will very well. We have what's called a preferential voting system, so its not simply the candidate with the most votes, but the first candidate to reach 50% of the votes in an electorate +1..

This proceeds in rounds. On our ballot paper, we number our candidates in order of preference for our home electorate/district. After the votes are first tallied, the candidate with the least number of first preferences is eliminated, and those votes are distributed among the other candidates according to their second preference. So the ultimate winner is the most preferred by the most people.

ie, in a mock election with 100 people voting, lets say the votes are divided up this way...

Round 1
Liberal/National 39
Labor 34
Greens 17
Democrats 10

Liberal has a strong first round showing, but still doesn't have more than half the required votes. Democrats, as the weakest party, get removed. Lets say that out of their 10 votes, 1 second preference is for Liberal, 3 are for Labor, and six are for the Greens. The next round looks like this.

Round 2
Liberal/National 40
Labor 37
Greens 23

Now the Greens are the weakest party. More people would prefer Liberal or Labor ultimately led the country, so their votes are divided. Preferences are counted up... 2nd preferences for those that first voted Greens, 3rd preferences from those six that voted Democrats initially. Out of their 23 votes, 14 end up going to Labor, while 9 head to the Liberal/National Party.

Final
Liberal/National 49 votes
Labor 51 votes

With 51 votes (50%+1) Labor has won this seat, despite a stronger initial vote to the Liberal/National Coalition.

The Party/Coalition with the majority of seats in the lower house is asked to form a government. Their nominated leader becomes Prime Minister, with government executive power. Legislative power is excercised when parliament meets... bills are discussed and proposed in the Lower House, and once passed, are sent through the Senate for approval or amendment.

The Senate, which is selected proportionally, needs to be a friendly Senate for legislation to get through unchecked.

That's where the term balance of power comes from, as with the proportional system, it is uncommon for one party to have a clear majority. They are normally left having to 'wheel and deal' with a minor party (ie Greens, Democracts or Family First) to get their majority through... giving the minor parties significant power and responsibility to hold up controversial legislation etc to scrutiny.
 
Silly question from a world away, but what do you all mean when you say some minor party gets the "Balance of Power" in your Senate? I'm assuming that it means these elected officials get to choose who they caucus/coalition with to tip the scales towards who they'd want to run the Senate.

It also sounds like the Senate is based on proportional voting whereas your lower house is based on individual districts. How does well does it represent the popular will?

OK, here goes, though the idea of Australian politicians "representing popular will" is rather quaint.

CRASH COURSE IN THE PURPOSE AND FUNCTION OF THE AUSTRALIAN SENATE, OR: A LESSON IN COMPARATIVE POLITICS

The framers of the Australian constitution were able to look to examples from the UK as well as from the United States and Canada, in deciding how to govern the Commonwealth. They therefore came up with a system which is a mix of the three. Australia's system is very much a westminister system, but in the place of a rubber stamp senate like Canada's or the anachronism of the UK's House of Lords, they chose to opt for a more American style senate, though with some differences.

The Senate and House of Representatives have equal legislative power except the lower house controls the budget (Supply). Theoretically the Prime Minister could be a senator, and members of the ministry often are senators. Custom, however, has it that the House leads and governs and the Senate follows or criticises. This is known as the concept of the "House of Review." The senate represents the states, all states get 12 senators regardless of population (New South Wales' 6 million versus Tasmania's 450 000) and the two internal territories get two senators. The Constitution also contains a clause that says the Senate should be as close as possible to half the size of the House of Reps.

Basically, in its function as a house of review the Senate can block whatever it wants, and even write its own bills. After several failed attempts to jam a bill through, a deadlock can be broken by a joint sitting of parliament (the HoR's 2:1 majority letting it overcome the Senate) or by the government calling a double-dissolution election where the entire senate goes up for election instead of just half like normal.

The other major function of the Senate as a House of Review is its ability to form committees to scrutinise the government, though obviously this depends on the numbers. When the government controls both houses like it does currently (for the first time in a generation) this tends to wane.

VOTING PROCEDURES

Australia uses preferential voting on all federal ballots. This link on Wiki explains how they work (edit, so does the post above). We have a single electoral body, the AEC, which runs everything, and does so independently of politicians. America could learn a lot from it about removing the ability to draw electorate (district) boundaries from politicians.

Anyways, in the lower house, the preference system does not overcome major party hegemony because in virtually all cases, the major parties win enough votes that they're carried through the "instant run-off" by preferences. In the proportionally-elected senate, however, the distribution of preferences ensures that minor parties have influence. Basically there's a set quota, usually around 10% when there's 6 senators being elected from a state, and you get a seat when your Primary Vote plus Preferences fulfils that quota. Usually this means a good 15%-20% of the Senate is minor parties and they often hold the swing between the major parties (for our purposes the Coalition is a single party). It also leads to anomolies in the allocation of the final seat from a state which can sometimes be pretty significant.

Is it representative? There's one valid criticism, which is that the specific voting method in the senate elections (1 box above the line or hundreds below) gives too much power to the parties to determine how votes for their list get allocated, but I think that's been reformed for this election.

More broadly though, there's two schools of thought and which one you hold depends on whether you vote for a major party and whether that major party is holding office. One is the "unrepresentative swill" view (as espoused by one former PM), that only a minority of people vote for minor parties and therefore they shouldn't hold such a balance of power. The more reasonable view, though, is that the Senate pretty roughly refects the voting will of the average of the last two elections, much more so than a House of Representatives with individual electorates (districts) where only a fraction of the seats are competitive and half the voters don't get represented (like if I live in a safe Liberal seat and vote Labor or if I live anywhere and vote Green).

Plus, like, there's strong evidence many Australians engage in "tactical voting" and consciously split their upper and lower house votes because they don't want an unchecked government.

THE BALANCE OF POWER

The other thing essential to understanding the concept of the "balance of power" in Australia is that there is an abnormally high degree of party discipline in parliamentary votes (think of the group of senators and congressmen in the US whose party affiliations barely matter, or the rebellious Labour backbench in the UK). Here, the Whips and Cabinets of Australian major parties reign supreme. Very rarely does a member "cross the floor" and doing so essentially ends their chances of advancement in the party... and might even see them lose preselection for the next election.

The exception is the Liberals who allow "conscience votes" on controversial but peripheral issues like stem cell research or abortion, but this is basically a safety valve to keep the peace between the small-l liberals and the Tory/Christian right.

Therefore, the exact distribution of the senate matters a LOT. It is, ironically, the extreme voting discipline of the major parties that gives minor parties such power in a tightly split senate, because your hope of securing the individual votes of someone from the other major party is precisely zero. So when there's no govt majority in the senate, it comes down to the minors to decide an issue and leads to negotiations and moderation of a bill, or even working with the other major party to come up with something palatable.

Even the government's mere one seat majority is enough to carry the day virtually always, since it can only be overcome by crossing of the floor. That's happened once or twice, and only then thanks to the dallying of a dissident (read, attention whore populist idiot) Queensland National Party senator named Barnaby Joyce and the lone Family First senator who is the go-to man if Joyce is acting up. That said, the mere threat from several Liberal senators was enough to kill a rather odious immigration bill.

Basically: the balance of power matters because the voting system gives minor parties representation and because party allegiances are rigid, not merely notional, in the 76 member Senate.
 
I wonder if any Australian here are in a Seat that will be hotly contested? I know that I am since the Seat of Cowan has a very small majority to the Labor Candidate who is stepping down at the end of the election. This seat has been close for the last few elections. It certainly a swinging seat and could be one of the seats that keep this government in government. Western Australia does seem to be the state most likely to be on the side of this government due to the large mining population that we have. The sort of Reforms that the Labor are looking bad for this state since it is doing very well under the new reforms.
 
Yeah, Labor's policy of ending the mining boom and burying all the minerals back in the ground forever is likely to hurt Western Australia.
 
I'll probably vote Labour for the Lower House and Greens for the Upper House. In the poll I voted Greens.

The Liberals would be barely tolerable if they weren't trying to buy themselves back in with a bunch of crappy tax cuts. I'd rather the money be spent on roads, hospitals and education.

@ OP, why would you even put the Democrats in the poll? They are pretty much dead now.

Naw get the tax cuts and spend the money repairing your car not fixing the road!


This political compass is broken! How did I get a libertarian left score yet I am a right winger? I'm around the same score as the bloody Greens! :O
 
Good job, guys, thank you. I'll need to pick up at least the basics of such government systems, since most people here see "Oh, look, this guy was elected" and that's the end of it.
 
Lower house (the House of Representatives) represents popular will very well. We have what's called a preferential voting system, so its not simply the candidate with the most votes, but the first candidate to reach 50% of the votes in an electorate +1..

This proceeds in rounds. On our ballot paper, we number our candidates in order of preference for our home electorate/district. After the votes are first tallied, the candidate with the least number of first preferences is eliminated, and those votes are distributed among the other candidates according to their second preference. So the ultimate winner is the most preferred by the most people.

ie, in a mock election with 100 people voting, lets say the votes are divided up this way...

Round 1
Liberal/National 39
Labor 34
Greens 17
Democrats 10

Liberal has a strong first round showing, but still doesn't have more than half the required votes. Democrats, as the weakest party, get removed. Lets say that out of their 10 votes, 1 second preference is for Liberal, 3 are for Labor, and six are for the Greens. The next round looks like this.

Round 2
Liberal/National 40
Labor 37
Greens 23

Now the Greens are the weakest party. More people would prefer Liberal or Labor ultimately led the country, so their votes are divided. Preferences are counted up... 2nd preferences for those that first voted Greens, 3rd preferences from those six that voted Democrats initially. Out of their 23 votes, 14 end up going to Labor, while 9 head to the Liberal/National Party.

Final
Liberal/National 49 votes
Labor 51 votes

With 51 votes (50%+1) Labor has won this seat, despite a stronger initial vote to the Liberal/National Coalition.

The Party/Coalition with the majority of seats in the lower house is asked to form a government. Their nominated leader becomes Prime Minister, with government executive power. Legislative power is excercised when parliament meets... bills are discussed and proposed in the Lower House, and once passed, are sent through the Senate for approval or amendment.

The Senate, which is selected proportionally, needs to be a friendly Senate for legislation to get through unchecked.

That's where the term balance of power comes from, as with the proportional system, it is uncommon for one party to have a clear majority. They are normally left having to 'wheel and deal' with a minor party (ie Greens, Democracts or Family First) to get their majority through... giving the minor parties significant power and responsibility to hold up controversial legislation etc to scrutiny.


Your way of voting is slightly off.

You must remember that all people who get 'over the line' have their votes split up to the other parties on a proportional scale, i'll post it tomorrow. Its extreamly complicated but you have the general picture.
 
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