Because We Have a Problem: 2016 Forcasting List

[downtown]

Mitch Daniels will never have a greater chance than he did this year, and he said he didn't want to run because he didn't want the media spotlight on his somewhat embarrassing personal life (he has a pretty weird relationship with his wife, who left him and later came back). He's the president of Purdue now, and I don't think he's likely to win again.

 

[JollyRoger]

What about Mitch Daniels for the Republicans?

If the voters can be persuaded to ignore the huge role played during the Bush administration, Jack Daniels might have a chance.

 

[GoodGame]

I'd ignore the candidates like Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich. They were in it too long and piled on too many unfavorables, especially Gingrich. Santorum is the only one who might try the "Romney failed because he wasn't conservative enough!" line and get some traction, but I don't think he will have the support base in 2016 to go anywhere.

I forget Huntsman too, he's a severe conservative who for some inane reason is viewed as a moderate because he worked as an ambassador in the Obama administration. Republicans would be wise to run him again.

I'd agree here, except I don't think Bachmann really did anything wrong in her party's eyes, nor has a chance because of her party's own patriarchal themes. She'll continue to be around as a crowd opener and cheer-leading also ran.

I think Gingrich will be around as long as he is physically healthy. He's sort of the GOP teflon candidate because he doesn't care and has just enough credibility. I don't think he'll ever win, and he probably has zero future chance of being nominated.

I don't know about Cain. I guess if he does some successful explaining, he might try again, but I think he was a one-trick version of Ron Paul, kind of like an alt-Ron Paul.

Santorum is the only one of the above with popularity to run, but I'd say he's too right wing to ever win a primary. I think he'll try to run at least once more.

I wonder if Ron Paul will ever retire, or officially turn over his podium to one who is worthy.

I'm betting that if the 2012-2016 years aren't swell then we will see a popular resurgence of third parties, kind of like Ross. If Rmoney loses, I bet there will be a loud return of the tea party. Interesting question: Would Bachmann jump ship to a Tea Party?

 

[GoodGame]

Honestly, I think the anti-latino thing will go away. Surely the money behind the GOP doesn't mind cheap labor, the latinos are generally pretty socially conservative/religious, which would make them likely GOP voters, and I think the general GOP public can just as well be made angry about abortions/health care/whatever as on immigration. All the Republicans need to do, is just stop talking about immigration and use other talking points instead. Then a Latino candidate could easily bring many of them into the GOP coalition.

I think the latino vote in the USA is very complex and not simply "social conservative/religious", but you are right that illegal immigration is a divisive political issue that costs the GOP votes. It is kind of a core issue for Republicans, at least some states, so I don't see it going away. In the past, the Republicans have tried to do a better job courting the latino vote with multicultural and Texan emphasis, but I don't think there's any magic pill for the GOP to swallow. I think if anything, the GOP will become more entrenched along its cultural lines.

 

[downtown]

edit: wrong thread.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Yeah, that's strange. I use Taleo every day and I haven't had that particular problem. My biggest pet peeves with Taleo are

1) You have to run it in IE, which means it crashes a lot
2) You can't run a geographic candidate search (show me all candidates within X miles of Y)
3) QC when large reports is an issue (but not with dates).

Wrong thread?

I'd agree here, except I don't think Bachmann really did anything wrong in her party's eyes, nor has a chance because of her party's own patriarchal themes. She'll continue to be around as a crowd opener and cheer-leading also ran.

I can see the Republicans nominating a woman, no problem. Not necessarily Bachmann, but I wouldn't even rule that out. I think she's largely in line with the base, but kind of dull.

I think Gingrich will be around as long as he is physically healthy. He's sort of the GOP teflon candidate because he doesn't care and has just enough credibility. I don't think he'll ever win, and he probably has zero future chance of being nominated.

I think this campaign pretty much destroyed him and any credibility he had. He will probably go back to lobbying/think-tanking and talk-shows. They're more lucrative and make it easier to pay his Tiffany's bill anyways.

I don't know about Cain. I guess if he does some successful explaining, he might try again, but I think he was a one-trick version of Ron Paul, kind of like an alt-Ron Paul.

Cain's done for. I hope.

Santorum is the only one of the above with popularity to run, but I'd say he's too right wing to ever win a primary. I think he'll try to run at least once more.

No I think he's is right wing enough to win a primary, but too right wing to win a general. Especially if the Tea Party gains even more influence or if the Republicans in general go even further right, he will get his shot the next time around.

I wonder if Ron Paul will ever retire, or officially turn over his podium to one who is worthy.

He's keeping his chair warm for Rand.

I'm betting that if the 2012-2016 years aren't swell then we will see a popular resurgence of third parties, kind of like Ross. If Rmoney loses, I bet there will be a loud return of the tea party. Interesting question: Would Bachmann jump ship to a Tea Party?

I thought Bachmann was Tea Party already?

I don't know if we'll see a 'popular' third party. I could see them spoiling future elections, but not winning them.

 

[_random_]

Booker did a Reddit IAmA today. Here was his response to a question about a presidential run:

Yes! Unequivocally I would consider running for President of the New Jersey Star Trek Club in 2016. I have been a lifelong Trekker and to run for such an important position would be the fulfillment of a childhood dream - up there with defending the Earth from The Borg. . . Now if you were talking about President of the United States. . . please. 44 people have held that position in the history of our country. We need to stop looking at that as the be all and end all of elected service. This country needs more people that focus on where they are and the urgent call to service before us. In fact, if we were to be honest, were do we need greater leaders right now - the White House or Congress. I believe Congress. I hope to join that great body and am strongly considering a run to do just that. My focus and passion right now has more to do with serving Newark in 2013 than anything happening in 2016. Oh and "Boldly Go for Booker For Enterprise Captain 2016!"

 

[GhostWriter16]

I wonder if Ron Paul will ever retire, or officially turn over his podium to one who is worthy.

From what I gather, he's already basically given it to Rand. I'd vote for him, but he could have done better... After the filibuster I'm kind of pumped though, I have to remember that Rand is not an ideological clone of his dad.

I volunteer to replace Rand in 2036...

 

[sophie]

dt what do you think of former Mayor of San Francisco and current California Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom? He's known to have held high aspirations for the governorship, but kind of quietly bowed out when Jerry Brown made his run and opted for the Lt. Governorship instead. He's been rather quiet since. He did recently go on the Colbert Report though. What do you think of his chances were he to make another run for governor, and do you think he holds aspirations for the White House?

He's also notable for being extremely likeable and is generally the darling of the gay community (he oversaw the brief legalization of gay marriage in CA and has been a strong proponent of the idea for years).

 

[downtown]

I suspect he's probably way too liberal to make a run at the presidency, at least without more of a governing record, but I could see him being a very strong contender for the Gov spot of California.

 

[sophie]

I suspect he's probably way too liberal to make a run at the presidency, at least without more of a governing record, but I could see him being a very strong contender for the Gov spot of California.

He's also still very young, like 45 or 46. I could definitely see him grabbing the governorship, especially when you consider the kind of opposition he would have from the republican party.

 

[Antilogic]

I was wondering if anyone outside of GA has heard of Shirley Franklin? I think I posted her name before in this thread; she is a Democrat and the former mayor of Atlanta, and also very likely to make a run at the governorship in 2015. She's a southern Democrat, so probably moderate and bidness-friendly enough to compete on the national stage.

I think it's too quick a turn-around to run for the presidency literally a year after becoming governor, but she's probably 2020/2024 material if she becomes Governor of Georgia.

 

[_random_]

Looked her up. She seems good, but she's currently 67. I don't think there's really any decent timeframe for her to run.

 

[GhostWriter16]

No I think he's is right wing enough to win a primary, but too right wing to win a general. Especially if the Tea Party gains even more influence or if the Republicans in general go even further right, he will get his shot the next time around.

Santorum isn't really the candidate of the Tea Party. He's got the social conservatism and hawkishness of some of the Tea Party, but even those are fiscally conservative while Santorum was no further right than Mitt Romney, maybe even a little to his left, on economic issues.

 

[madviking]

Any other word if Mark Warner (D-VA) is gonna run? (popular southern Democrat senator)

 

[Antilogic]

Looked her up. She seems good, but she's currently 67. I don't think there's really any decent timeframe for her to run.

Huh, I thought she was 57 for some reason. You are probably right--governor may be her last hurrah.

Santorum isn't really the candidate of the Tea Party. He's got the social conservatism and hawkishness of some of the Tea Party, but even those are fiscally conservative while Santorum was no further right than Mitt Romney, maybe even a little to his left, on economic issues.

He fits more in the Christian evangelical "conservative" camp, kind of like Huckabee but without the broader appeal.

Your buddy Rand Paul actually has good enough credentials to run with the support of both the libertarian and Tea Party faction in the primaries--he's likely to get must further if he runs than Ron Paul.

Any other word if Mark Warner (D-VA) is gonna run? (popular southern Democrat senator)

Name floated as a possibility, I don't think anybody besides Biden has announced their interest officially yet. I think he's had a couple donor meetings, but I don't see his name listed on the weekend shows as often as O'Malley (I am fairly bullish that O'Malley will run, possibly even if Biden and Clinton do as well in a sort of pro forma primary to establish himself as a contender in 2020/2024; he's only 50 now and can wait).

 

[madviking]

Ick, I wouldn't ever vote for a Marylander!

I dunno it would make sense for Warner to run in my opinion. But that's just my two cents.

 

[GhostWriter16]

He fits more in the Christian evangelical "conservative" camp, kind of like Huckabee but without the broader appeal.

I don't know a ton about Huckabee but Santorum strikes me as the "Big government everything" candidate. I know every European is going to scream "Of course he's conservative on economics" but even when compared to Romney or Gingrich, let alone Bachmann or Rand Paul, let alone Ron Paul, he's definitely not. Santorum was the most "Moderate" on fiscal issues of any of the GOP last time around. He's also a big time proponent of aggressive foreign policy and Federal laws against all kinds of moral transgressions (Most conservatives want those laws to be state level.)

Your buddy Rand Paul actually has good enough credentials to run with the support of both the libertarian and Tea Party faction in the primaries--he's likely to get must further if he runs than Ron Paul.

Most Ron Paul fans think he's got a shot. I'm a pessimist but you never know... If the GOP actually wants me to vote Republican in '16 they'll nominate him...

 

[downtown]

It doesn't really matter if every single Ron Paul voter votes for Rand Paul. Without dramatically increasing his appeal to voters of different stripes, he'll never survive a primary.

Remember, for all of his internet popularity, Ron Paul never won a single state.

 

[_random_]

I wonder if Senator Bob Casey could make a go of it. He has some pretty solid credentials with the blue collar crowd and experience appealing to Republican voters. He's also pretty much the only pro-life Democrat besides me, so I feel a certain affinity with him. At the same time, that would likely be a big obstacle in appealing to many in the party base.* And I'm not sure if he's hinted at any higher aspirations than the Senate.

*I brought up abortion because it seems pertinent to discussing Senator Casey's merits as a candidate. Please don't make me regret this.