Belarus riots

red_elk

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We started discussing it in "Ask a Russian" thread, but the situation seems to deteriorate quickly and we probably need a separate thread for this.

Three days ago, there were president elections in Belarus. Acting president, Alexander Lukashenko has been in power there for 5 consecutive terms since 1994. Preliminary results of elections show that Lukashenko is winning with overwhelming advantage, more than 80% of votes. Many Belorussians consider this result outrageous and claim that elections were rigged. Unofficial exit polls were showing that leading opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya got 70%-90% of votes.

Official election results sparked mass protests and riots in Belarus. According to the videos, police treats protesters quite brutally, there were already reports about many wounded people. Lukashenko blames both Western countries and Russia in meddling with elections and organizing riots.



There are reports about ~2000 arrested last night, including Russian citizens and several journalists. Tikhanovskaya last night published a video where she looks scared and says that she made difficult decision to leave the country.


Translation and more comments in the BBC article.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53733330

Spoiler :









Today, mass protests are continuing, several large factories and plants went on strike.
What do you think Europe and Russia should do about it?
 
My personal feelings on this is that she have won. I "don't believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied" and I do believe that this is such a case. Lukashenko denies any meddling or falsifying the elections so it must be true. I don't think that Russia is involved at all , he just "feels" the support so he feels that he can get away with it. As plain as day ordinary Belarus guy has a different story to tell. We might live in the 21'st century but countries are still led by dictators and tyrants, which is sad.
 
Wasn't Lukashenko a russian puppet? This apparently changed now/recently?
He wasn't a puppet, though his politics was quite pro-Russian. He has a lot of leverage on Russia because of Belarus strategic importance for Russian economy (exports to EU) and security. And he always used this leverage to his advantage.

Who was supporting the opposition? (west or Russia?)
I don't know for sure, this movement seems grassroot to me. People are fed up with him. But with his recent actions and statements he could annoy Putin as well.
 
He wasn't a puppet, though his politics was quite pro-Russian. He has a lot of leverage on Russia because of Belarus strategic importance for Russian economy (exports to EU) and security. And he always used this leverage to his advantage.


I don't know for sure, this movement seems grassroot to me. People are fed up with him. But with his recent actions and statements he could annoy Putin as well.

If I was in charge of Belarus think I would pull a Switzerland.

Official neutrality and trade with everyone.
 
Russian pet probably more accurate.

Everyone should stay out of it IMHO.

That is a very "conformist" statement, should we not heed the cry for freedom ? Perhaps not in this case. Belarus is a "gateway to Europe" from a Russian point of view so not controlling it would be a major strategic fail for Russia. We should tread very carefully or not at all, so yeah ... You're probably right.
 
Officially, several EU countries criticized elections, while Russia and China congratulate Lukashenko with victory.
But this doesn't mean much.


 
Russia and China congratulate Lukashenko with victory.
But this doesn't mean much.

Agreed this don't mean much from a diplomatic point of view, but IMHO as long as this is established, as long as Lukashenko feels the support from this Great Powers he will think that he can do whatever he likes with "his private country" and People. I wonder what would happen if Russia and China would cut off their support for him. He would be left high and dry , perceived as a dictator and villain who hurts his own people for personal gain by the rest of the world. His countryman would probably kill and hang him for treason like they did with Ceausescu from Romania.
 
Agreed this don't mean much from a diplomatic point of view, but IMHO as long as this is established, as long as Lukashenko feels the support from this Great Powers he will think that he can do whatever he likes with "his private country" and People. I wonder what would happen if Russia and China would cut off their support for him. He would be left high and dry , perceived as a dictator and villain who hurts his own people for personal gain by the rest of the world. His countryman would probably kill and hang him for treason like they did with Ceausescu from Romania.

Unless things got really bad more likely he would leave to Russia or Saudi Arabia.
 
I read in the news that couple of days ago a plane departed from his residency, went to Turkey. Could be his family.
 
Memes are a true sad story of mankind , this one is called "Belarusian Political Scene now"

Spoiler it's a dark humor, it doesn't make me laugh :


addendum : white-red-white are the colors of opposition there now.
 
Unless things got really bad more likely he would leave to Russia or Saudi Arabia.

In the case of Ceausescu : He tried to get away but the army ordered his helicopter down. He must have known that he's facing a choice of being shot down and killed by the army or stand trial , he probably didn't realized just how much his own people hated him and he stood trial, You know the rest. In his case I would have probably chose suicide and being shot down.
 
Ceausescu and his wife were basically murdered, there was only a mock trial before execution.
 
Ceausescu and his wife were basically murdered, there was only a mock trial before execution.
That is basically because "Hell hath no fury like a woman nation scorned". Sadly Lukashenko seems to be following in those footsteps, let's hope it does not have to end like this for him too.
 
I'd hope Lukashenko falls. I don't think Putin will allow what he perceives as a pro-Western government in Belarus (Russian fear of strategic encirclement dates back to the Tsars) but Lukashenko hanging on doesn't even serve the Belarus establishment anymore. The movement against him is now broadly based and blue collar as well as the usual suspects.
 
I'd hope Lukashenko falls. I don't think Putin will allow what he perceives as a pro-Western government in Belarus (Russian fear of strategic encirclement dates back to the Tsars) but Lukashenko hanging on doesn't even serve the Belarus establishment anymore. The movement against him is now broadly based and blue collar as well as the usual suspects.

It doesn't have to be "pro-western" I think that the best course of action for Russia is to allow a new face on the scene. One that is more accepted and not hated by the public. I also think that Russia would go far if They would allow Belarus some breathing room, perhaps loosen a grip a little, show a good faith , that sort of thing.
 
I'd hope Lukashenko falls. I don't think Putin will allow what he perceives as a pro-Western government in Belarus (Russian fear of strategic encirclement dates back to the Tsars) but Lukashenko hanging on doesn't even serve the Belarus establishment anymore. The movement against him is now broadly based and blue collar as well as the usual suspects.
My opinion is that anti-Russian candidate won't be elected in Belarus because they don't have such a strong nationalistic movement as Ukraine does. Belarussians and Russians treat each other well and most opposition candidates claimed they want to maintain good relations with Russia. Cultural ties are also very strong. Hope that whoever gets to be their president won't try to leave alliances and treaties with Russia and that Russian government also won't do something stupid to alienate Belorussians.
 
To make it clear I am more Pro-Russian than I am pro-US. I take shame in my country allowing to place foreign (namely american) troops inside of our sovereign territory. I think we are being used by americans (on political, military covert etc. fronts) and I hate that. Not to say we have to pay taxes to support those troops, which we are now unwittingly inviting. This is a view I formed over years, at first I was stupid and yelled "go US! , go EU!" - to my shame.

The topic of those election shenanigans in Belarus captivate me because they still have the chance to be free and not succumb utterly and completely to a western world: making a vassal of themselves from one Power to another , (like Poland over the course of years imperceptibly did). I do believe that we are officially a vassal of US and a boot-licking country , which I personally hate. Belarusians however still have a pure heart and have a chance at true freedom and it's what captivates me I hope for the best for them.
 
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