Blackbetsy HOF Attempts

Playing Tiny Chieftain as Sumeria, I am heading towards a 630 AD or 670 AD finish (depending on whether Fission shows up - there is a 69% chance with 4 civs). SGL with Mysticism, I believe, but it took me probably 20 turns before I got Masonry because I was looking for the Ottomans (they were the farthest away).

Since the early Middle Ages, I've 5 or 4 turned every tech; Industrialization was my last 5 turn tech. Good luck in the Middle Age Big Picture to have all 3 starting techs show up for the AI and draw Invention; mostly bad luck in the Industrial Age to have all 3 starting techs show up and trade for Steam Power and Medicine only to get Sanitation instead of Industrialization or Electricity.

I got a second SGL with the Republic slingshot and used it to finish the Colossus 16 turns early. But none since, so I had to hand build Cope / Newton. Cope was really slow and and SGL to build it probably saves me 5-6 turns of research overall; an SGL for Newton wouldn't really have done anything, since I was 4 turning all the Industrial techs anyway and with the hand build it is enough to give me 4 turn Atomic Theory @ 90% if I wanted.

Perfection in terms of luck on SGL (one for Cope) and Big Picture (Electricity) would have saved me 12 turns, I believe, putting my best score around 510 AD, which would have been #2.

I can only guess how Lord Emsworth got to 150 AD. That's 31 turns better than 510 AD, which would be my perfect luck score in this game. He did it with Russia, which makes me believe he got perfect / perfect luck. First, he must have had an SGL for Pyramids, and probably a second for Colossus and third for Copes. Second, he must have popped a settler in 3950 BC. Third, he must have had very good paths to the AI's to get their starting techs without wasting huts. Fourth, he must have gotten very good luck with techs from huts - techs instead of warriors, gold or maps, and including Monarchy to trade in the Big Picture. He may have even gotten the Russian triple slingshot (Philosophy to hit the Medieval Ages, then a free extra required Medieval tech after the Big Picture - Gunpowder or Education). Fifth, he must have had perfect luck on Big Picture trading - Electricity would have been his best pull. Sixth, a coal resource was already roaded and he had workers ready to railroad his core cities. Seventh, obviously, Fission as a part of the Modern Age Big Picture.

I think with Russia you can research as fast as with Sumeria even without the extra food in the city square. So the 30 extra turns can only be explained by hut popping luck, because I think I 4 turned maybe 90% of the techs. In the Ancient Ages, I took 6 turns on CB and I think 9 on Mysticism as my first two techs (to maximize SGL chances), but I was able to 4 turn several of the techs even in the Ancient Age (HBR, CoL, Philo, Lit I think).

There are 48 required techs (18 Ancient, 14 Medieval, 15 Industrial) + 2 necessary but not mandatory ones (Republic, Literature). You get 2 starting techs (50-2=48), plus on Tiny you can get a maximum of 3 starting techs from AI (48-3=45). Philosophy gives you a free tech (45-1=44). ToE gives you two free techs (44-2=42). You get a free tech in the Medieval, Industrial and Modern Age as a Scientific civ (42-3=39). If the AI's have perfect diversity in the Big Picture, they can give you 3 required techs in the Medieval Age Big PIcture (39-3=36), and 2 in the Industrial Age (36-2=34). That means the lowest possible number of techs you need to research without huts (or the Chieftain AI actually researching something for you) is 34.

At a minimum 4 turns per tech, that is 136 turns, or 170 AD. 4 turns per tech is impossible if only because of the Ancient Age research when you have 1 or 2 cities can't be done in 4 turns. The "true" number of possible turns without huts is more like turns 145-150, or 300-350 AD. The 15-20 turn difference between that and Lord Emsworth's 150 AD can only be explained by Russian hut-popping. Lord Emsworth's game is probably approaching the limit of what can possibly be done on that size map/difficulty, not unlike the 3800 BC Tiny Conquests. I don't know the maximum number of huts in a Tiny Pangaea, but popping 4 techs is probably the minimum.

I'm going to switch over to Russia and dump any game that doesn't pop a settler in 3950 and doesn't give me a SGL by Mysticism. I likely won't pop any huts until I find the AI and get the starting techs. I would consider possibly researching Philo as the last AA tech to get the triple Slingshot, which I've never done.

I don't know how many runs it will take to get into the 300's, which would be my goal. I'm hoping 50 or fewer.

@Moonsinger, start up the map generator. Grassland cows with at least 3 river tiles, please.
 
Looking at CRpViewer, Lord Emsworth got his 2nd SGL in 2390 BC and revolted in the same turn, presumably that was when he made the slingshot. He got a third SGL in 1450 BC, and he built Cope's in 1225 BC, then Newton's in 670 BC. The ToE build was in 190 BC.
Just preposterous.
 
The 15-20 turn difference between that and Lord Emsworth's 150 AD can only be explained by Russian hut-popping.

I believe he was doing deficit research also. Remember, there is no penalty for going broke and then having negative gpt on a turn for Chieftain level.
 
Looking at CRpViewer, Lord Emsworth got his 2nd SGL in 2390 BC and revolted in the same turn, presumably that was when he made the slingshot. He got a third SGL in 1450 BC, and he built Cope's in 1225 BC, then Newton's in 670 BC. The ToE build was in 190 BC.
Just preposterous.
I've had pre-2000 revolts before. Cope's in 1225 BC is indicative that he pulled Theology and started on Education / Astronomy right away. It's 9 turns between 1450 BC and 1225 BC, which is about the time it might take to research Astronomy from scratch on a pretty developed civ in a golden age @1450 BC. You are maybe talking about 10-12 towns if you are working really hard.
 
I dumped my game because I didn't get Fission as a part of the Big Picture, didn't have a backup to my Palace pre-build and therefore was heading towards a 750 finish with a 12 turn build. Having a 4-5 turn Palace backup (e.g. Hoover Dam that completes the same turn as the Palace in a 40 shield per turn city) if you don't pull Fission seems like a necessity unless you want to use the ToE to guarantee Fission, which guarantees an extra 4 turns.

@Spoonwood, I was 4-turning without deficit spending and never was afraid of running 100% research at a deficit and did so for maybe 8 turns overall. I suspect that deficit spending wasn't that much of a benefit to Lord Emsworth. Can't research more than 100% of the commerce you generate, of course.
 
Just a little math:
4 scientific civs - chance of Fission free tech in Modern Age: 1-(.75^4) = 68.4%
5 scientific civs - 1-(.75^5) = 76.3%
6 scientific civs = 82.2%
7 scientific civs = 86.7%
8 scientific civs = 90.0%

So a 4-5 turn follow up build if you miss Fission is always a good idea; you can guarantee 4 turns later than best if you do ToE but you are giving up those 4 turns.

When you trade for 3 non-Fission techs, Recycling, Synthetic Fibers, Miniaturization and Space Flight all make your odds WORSE to get Fission if you trade for Ecology, Computers, and Rocketry.

EDIT - What this means is that if no AI gets Fission, there is no reason to trade for a non-Fission starting tech. You can't make Fission more likely to be your tech; you can never get better than 1/4 and can only get worst (if you trade for Ecology). The only exception might be Computers, where if you get it, you might get Miniaturization and you can instantly complete the Internet to speed up research on Fission.
 
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Played around a little bit more. Had a game where I got SGL with Polytheism and popped a settler, but very bad luck on huts popping only 1 tech and on Big Picture (Chivalry, Ironclads when AI didn't even get Medicine so I only traded for Steam Power) and was heading towards and mid-700s finish. So hut luck and Big Picture luck are definitely important.

Now playing a game with GREAT tech luck. I popped a settler in 3950 and then held off on popping huts until I met the other AIs. Germany already had Masonry for some reason (maybe they popped it), and found Byz 1 turn after I started on Alphabet. Then popped Currency and Construction after Math while I researched writing. Wound up hitting Medieval Ages in 1125 BC BUT no Pyramids, so research on Education is 9 turns, which not a good pace. Good Colossus city that doesn't need an aqueduct, which is a huge help, but only reached 20 cities around 700 BC. So having no Pyramids from an SGL is a huge factor here. I didn't even start a hand build; maybe I should be doing that in a 3rd city (but then you get fewer settlers). Not sure where my finish date will be, I will play to around the Industrial Age, where you know what your finish date is if you get 4 turn research capability.
 
The game without the Pyramids is at best a 660AD finish (if I can 4 turn the remaining 11 Industrial Age techs). 20 turns earlier would be 460 AD, which seems about right for a near perfect game. This game was pretty good inasmuch as I got all 3 starting techs in the Medieval Age + Invention. No SGL for Cope's, either, but after Astronomy it probably only would have saved 3-4 turns, since I did 5 turns on Banking, etc. until I hit a Golden Age and 4 turned everything. Not sure I am going to play it through to a 6th place showing (it might be later once the Golden Age ends, Medicine is 90% 4 turns in the GA so Electricity might take me longer).

Really and truly need to dump games without an SGL by Mysticism.
 
It's funny, as many times as I think, oooh, I popped a settler and I'm getting good hut luck but no SGL, I keep wind up getting to the Industrial Age in 190 AD hoping for that SGL to appear. Time and again.

Gotta dump without an SGL.
 
Finally got popped 3950 BC settler + SGL in first 3 techs (plus bonus SGL to complete Colossus). But best case scenario is only 590 AD. Bad luck on Medieval Big Picture with Chivalry but good luck with Electricity (not 50 AD). I didn't have good luck with huts although late Ancient Age research was still only 6 turns and I hit the Medieval Age in 1300 BC or so. Not sure why I'm as far off of optimal as this - but 10 turns on Theology vs. none makes a difference and hand-researching Construction for 6 turns seems to make a big difference.

In other words, the early 500's means EVERYTHING is going right.

I did have a game where Philo was my last required Ancient Age tech, allowing me to get 2 "free" Medieval Age techs. But you have to go back and research the Republic unless you can pop it from a remaining hut. I did wind up dropping that game.
 
590 AD game became 600 AD game when I foolishly reduced research slider right before the end of my Golden Age and then it became a 670 AD game because I 100% messed up the build time for the Palace by 7 turns (!! can't start building Palace soon enough).

I will probably submit to give us 10 submissions and trigger a HOF update but wow...getting to pre-540 AD is going to be very hard. Need ALL the breaks. I'm not sure that saving that SGL for Cope's instead of using on Colossus wouldn't have been the right play.

Didn't get an SGL since the 2d early in the game and really could have used it along the way.

Also thinking that a very early Medieval Age Golden Age is probably the right play. The 8 turns on Theology might be 6, Education might become 6, saving probably 10-15 turns. It's not easy to produce with the Russians, however. I've been using Maus to trigger it, usually in a core city or even the cap.

The beginning of the Industrial Age Golden Age sure did come in handy this game as I 4 turned Medicine and then Industrialization while I was railroading.
 
Wow, I'm playing a game that has gone about as well as it can go - CB SGL, popped a settler early (but not 3950 BC), popped Currency and Construction. Hit the Medieval Ages around 1400 BC, Industrial Age in 50BC. Only things that didn't go optimally were the AI pulling Monotheism and Engineering but not Feudalism and getting Feudalism instead of Invention or Theology, and then the AI only getting Nationalism and Medicine and pulling Sanitation as a free tech. That's 11 turns. I could have had rails in 30 BC had I had some luck!

If I get Fission somehow, I will still only win this one in 570 AD. Still 4 turns short of the #2 spot, explainable by the Big Picture luck. :-(

In general, I feel like I've got the early game down - I pop the first 2 huts I see for a settler, if I don't get a settler, I abandon. If I don't get an SGL by HBR (4th tech), I abandon. I don't pop huts until I get the starting techs, then I pop huts until I get Writing, then I research COL and then research Philo and pop huts - I usually get Math, Poly, Currency and Construction, which is the luck you need.

The research sequence is CB-Myst-Wheel (no one has it)- HBR.

If I get a second SGL with more than 20 turns on Colossus, I will tend to use it for Colossus. Otherwise I will wait for Cope's.

This run, I got one with like 16 turns left on Cope's, but I was already 4 turning everything. So I decided to keep it for Newtons and trigger my Golden Age right at the turn of the Industrial Age. That worked perfectly, as the enhanced research capacity had me 4-turning everything right away.

It's a shame that this all comes down to Big Picture luck, as you can play a game for hours before hitting that wall.
 
....580 AD, because I put my cities into riot by accidentally double trading luxes to get Fission. Still the same 4th place, 5 turns away from where I wanted to be.
 
I have a game where I hit the Industrial Age in 170 BC in the middle of a Golden Age. The research boost of the GA has propelled me to 4 turn early IA research. I got lucky in the big picture twice; once with Theology and now with Electricity. With ToE, I have 10 techs left to research, at 40 turns that gives me a 440 AD finish. I don't have coal hooked up, but I have a chance at rails in BC.

BUT, I have to engineer a Palace that finishes on time. This likely means I skip Newton's, build it in my Cope's city and risk that I won't be able to 4-turn after the Golden Age. I never got a second SGL for Cope's, which would have been a godsend right now.

Theoretically I have 9 turns to play with, even enough to fail to get Fission and use a backup build to finish the UN and hit 530. I have a feeling the Palace will be the hardest part here, but I've got a shot.

Feudalism was a 7 turn tech in the start of the Middle Ages before Colossus / core Libraries started to finish, then a couple of 6 turners and 5 turners, but I've been at 4 per turn for a while. Good Hut luck for all but Construction, which I was able to 4 turn to get out of the Ancient Age in, I believe, right around 1400 BC, so 54 turns for the Middle Ages on 11 techs, just under 5 turns per tech. 64 turns for the Ancient Age, so with starting 2 + the 3 AI starting techs + Philo free tech (Republic), plus popping Currency, Literature, Math, & Poly, I did 10 techs in 6.4 turns per tech.
 
OK, I took a pause on the game a few turns before the Modern Age because it was late at night and I wanted to do the Big Picture right and fresh. One thing from playing the Big Picture as often as I have - especially at the Modern Age - is that you have to remember a lot of sequences to get it right. If you trade for Fission but you forget to break into the build sequence to flip your Palace to UN, you just blew up your game. And you've moved your Palace and probably messed up corruption in another city.

I've learned from a lot of fails / failure to remember is to always have an improvement build completing in your capital the turn you enter the Modern Age. That way, if you forget to go to the Domestic Advisor screen, you have a second chance to flip between cities to flip your Palace.

Another thing that I just learned this attempt - I think - is that the Palace build is BEST in your Colossus / Cope / Newton's City. The reason for this is that if you miss Fission in the Big Picture, you can re-direct shield production tiles onto the coast / sea (obviously you have coast if you have the Colossus). That can take the Palace from 1 turn away to 10-20 turns very quickly and allow for the Palace to be moved back to the time you research Fission. I also have an army of workers ready to irrigate grasslands that had been mined to take away shields but still allow the tiles to be played from a beaker production perspective.

Which brings me to my game - which I only very carefully played the Big Picture and the turn after it on this AM before I left for work. But I now have a finish date. I'm going to hit 490 AD, turn 164. It gets me down to a #2 in Tiny, Chieftain and Diplo if accepted. It should get me below a 3 overall score on the Quartermaster Challenge.

The Industrial Age went as well as it possibly could - I 4 turned everything. At one point, I got a SGL bonus and rushed Newton's. I was going to skip Newton's and risk that I'd have to 5 turn flight if I couldn't get enough scientists. But with Newton's, and workers irrigating everything to build up population, I was able to 4 turn flight on 90% science. We had all 8 luxes (7 native, 1 by trade), so the 10% actually went to tax. I built Factory/Coal Plant in my Newton's/Cope/Colossus city and got it up over 60 shields per turn, meaning I could 17 turn the Palace. I had a few turns left over so I decided to build a Harbor for some reason - that's lucky and something I didn't think would be a bonus later.

440 AD brought Flight and the Big Picture. Ottomans got Rocketry. Germans and Byz got Ecology. Ugh. Trading for either wouldn't help my luck on starting tech (Ecology would make it worse since it could bring Recycling AND Synthetic Fibers and Rocketry gives you a chance at Space Flight. No bueno.

Because I'd learned my lesson before, I had a backup to the Palace going in the form of Universal Suffrage. But I learned my lesson again that you don't need a backup if you can control your Palace. I broke into the build sequence for 003 and turned off production on the Palace by switching to coastal/sea tiles, making it 10 turns away from completion at 2 shields per turn (thankfully, I had more 18 shields left on it). My army of workers irrigated all the regular grasslands, and we had enough food and commerce. Fission was 6 turns away and CA2 told me I needed to hit almost 900 beakers per turn to 5 turn it. I began the process of starving every city I could who could take 5 turns of famine and turned citizens into scientists. It was enough to scratch out the 900 beakers. I flipped Universal Suffrage to Hoover Dam, which allowed me to ax my Coal Plant in City 003 reducing the chance of disruptive pollution (although that wouldn't be an issue, since just a couple of tiles flipped to mines will do the trick in 480).

So that's it. I just need to play it out to the finish at home tonight. I am going to donate 3 cities to the Byz to make sure they are my opponent, DoW with Otto and the Ottomans allied with me.

Perfect luck would have shaved off 12 turns from the finish - Had the AI pulled Feudalism and I had still gotten Theology, that saves a 7 turn tech, and had I been able to get Fission, thats obviously 5 turns. Arguably it's only 11 turns since I used the 7 turns of Feudalism to tighten up my research. Better luck with an SGL maybe gets Cope built sooner and shaves off a turn or two in early Medieval Age. Perfect luck with SGL means I build Colossus super early and shave off another 1-2 turns.

Had I finished in 370 AD, I'd consider that pretty near perfect - Lord Emsworth just had extraordinary luck. Even now, this 490 AD win is probably my one of my finest games. It will be on the HOF Board for 20 years, for sure, if the HOF board still exists in 20 years.
 
It's a tough choice to decide between keeping one of the ToE techs for Fission, and gambling on possibly winning four turns sooner.
It occurs to me that if the first ToE tech brings you to the big picture, then you might already get Fission and the second tech would be "wasted"?
 
It's a tough choice to decide between keeping one of the ToE techs for Fission, and gambling on possibly winning four turns sooner.
It occurs to me that if the first ToE tech brings you to the big picture, then you might already get Fission and the second tech would be "wasted"?
Yes. And, as the math suggests, you are 68% likely to get or be able to trade for Fission.

Edit - it strikes me that at a 68% chance of Fission, with the other 32% chance being 5 more turns to research Fission vs. guaranteeing yourself Fission but spending 4 more turns, the math is that you should never use ToE for the purpose of saving your self 1 turn 32% of the time (-.32 weighted average benefit) by costing yourself 4 turns 68% of the time (+2.72 weighted average cost). It's an expected value of 2.4 extra turns. At 6 turn Fission (also realistic) the expected value is still costing you more than 2 turns.
 
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Well, Calis pushing me down to a #4 spot on Small Warlord Diplo has me looking for a way to get my Warlord score down to #2 or #3 again. I'm on a Diplo kick, so looking at the Diplo charts for Warlord I spy this table.

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3rd place is 28 turns slower than 1st place, which is a pretty big distribution. And although Aigburth is the #1 here (what else is new), and Prince Myshkin and sanabas are on the table (with kind of slowish scores?), I think the other folks aren't well known students of the game.

So that's my target. Goal is 790 AD, which is 30 turns slower than my Tiny Chieftain finish. I've got to be in the Industrial Age by 290 AD, I figure (Medieval should be 1500BC or earlier w/hut popping). I'll be held back by the size of the map meaning tech costs are 2x, plus Warlord increase in tech cost, plus lack of free deficit spending. I'll benefit from the fact that I should be able to pop huts through the Ancient Age and skip all research but Philo and the starting 2. I'm not sure I should wait to pop huts until I meet the other AI's and get starting techs.

Any games without settler/city pop within 4 turns + SGL in first 2 techs (CB, Mysticism) are abandoned. I've got 100 two grassland cow, 3 river maps ready to go. It took me 3 deep tries and 39 actual starts at Tiny to hit my goal. I'm assuming that 30% chance of city/settler * 10% chance of SGL in 2 techs means that with normal luck I should get 3 deep tries in 100 maps.
 
Well, I'll be damned. I hit the Industrial Age in 70 AD, way faster than I planned after I hit an SGL with Mysticism and popped an early settler. I didn't even build Colossus, and missed Maus by 2 turns and I've got my Cope and Newton split.

I had bad luck at the Medieval Age Big Picture by getting Chivalry but good luck in the Industrial Age by pulling Industrialization. I hit my Golden Age at the turn of the Industrial Age when I flipped Leo's to Newton's. Electricity is 5 turns @90%, but I am going to be humming now.

If I can 4 turn this through the Industrial Age, I can actually beat Aigburth's 650 date for #1. Realistically, I've got a shot at a 570 AD finish. This is only my first deep run at this size map / difficulty so I have been sloppy this game so far - I really only wanted to play it for feel and I've got a lot of mountains and marsh and jungle near my core.

But I am going to go super tight now; we are going to micromanage the hell out of the Industrial Age to get a #1 slot here. @Calis may have done me a favor by bumping my Warlord #3 and motivating me to look for a better Warlord opportunity. #2 spot is an absolute given at this point - I'd have to seriously screw this up from here to miss out on that. My biggest open question is whether I have just basic luck to get Fission at the turn of the Modern Age. But I am overwhelmingly likely to get that with the Germans, Ottomans, Greeks, Byzantines, Koreans, and Sumerians as opponents. I'm close to 90%. Even should I miss Fission, I should be able to back it up with a Palace re-build and complete in 5 turns in the Modern Age. All other things being equal, I've got 8 turns here to play with based on 4 turning the rest of the way.
 
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