Blackbetsy HOF Attempts

[BlackBetsy]

Mapfinder generated a little over 100 maps with 2 grassland cows and at least 3 river squares on Standard Monarch. I played out 100 to see whether I popped a settler, going to 3400 BC before abandoning, so I might pop 3-4 huts before getting a Settler. Out of 100, I got 53 popped settlers/cities. I've played out 10 of the 53 so far and no SGL before 1600 BC (I have been playing to 4th tech researched). This is pretty bad luck - assuming that someone pops CB, that means I've finished a tech first 30 times w/o an SGL (roughly 21% chance).

One thing I've noticed is fewer huts around generally than I had expected. I've been going with 4 scouts (3 from cap, 1 from popped city) and I've never been close to the Medieval Age by 1600 by popping techs. This is Monarch, so techs should be pretty frequent once settlers are out of the equation. The other thing is that I've gone with 6 AI opponents, so the map is more crowded than it otherwise could be and I'm encountering more AI troops which can pop huts.

More and more I think I've got to abandon if no SGL by 2000 BC (first 3 techs). Usually that's CB/Mysticism and either Horseback Riding or Writing, if I've already gotten HBR.

 

[BlackBetsy]

Got an SGL with Mysticism on a relatively bad map, albeit got an early Colossus @ 1425 BC. Just didn't get the hut pops I need to get into the Medieval Age early enough - hit it around 900 BC. Bad luck on Big Picture forced me to research Monotheism. @ 130AD I am researching Banking @5 turns 70% research because only 2 native lux means I need to run 20% lux, and burning through revenue for research pushed me down to need to do 10% tax. Still have ToG, Metallurgy and Magnetism, which would put me at 390 AD Industrial Age, best case 790 AD finish. So I'll move on to the next one.

 

[BlackBetsy]

I'm thinking that I have too many opponents and the map is too crowded for Standard. I went with 6 opponents (Persia, Ottomans, Greeks, Koreans, Japan, Germans) on 60% Pangaea. I was up against the other civs by city #30 on Monarch Standard, meaning I just have too many AI out there taking up space. 4 is too few for Big Picture purposes, so I might go for 5 and just the scientific civs.

Edit: Nothing like playing another 100 maps to 3400 BC.

 

[BlackBetsy]

(Sigh) Only the 2nd SGL on this quest, and Industrial Age @ 330 AD, which is no good. Back again, still have a few maps before I run out of the 53 popped settlers out of the first 100 maps.

 

[Spoonwood]

I'm thinking that I have too many opponents and the map is too crowded for Standard.

The greater the number of scientific opponents, the greater the probability that all of the free techs will get drawn by some AI. Also, with more scientific opponents, the free techs can be less expensive more often, if everyone gets gifted up.

I've had the opinion that they also research more quickly in the ancient age, since they trade more and will spend less time both researching say warrior code. I'd guess that their offensive unit goes out and scouts early. If you meet them early enough, you can tell that they traded by checking how much gold they have. Since they all start at 10 gold, and research at 100% initially, they either got gold from trading or had some infrastructure built which lead to them lowering the science rate without touching the luxury slider leading to an increased tax rate (I guess this also helps understand why they rarely touch the luxury slider, because changing rates primarily works for increasing the amount of taxes an AI collects).

From a test on Monarch in debug mode with all scientific AIs:

Korea's warrior is out by the northern tundra. Babylon's warrior stands kind of near Persia. The Byzantine's warrior stands in some jungle. Checking in the F6 screen I infer that Persia sold Masonry to Korea, since Korea has Masonry. Greece and the Byzantines are close to each other, but Greece went up/north instead of down/south and didn't meet the Byzantines. Since the Byzantines outresearch anyone early, their meeting could have implied them trading away some tech. Germany's archer went north to a tundra.

I can't seem to find a third enkidu warrior for Sumeria. I guess it got abandoned? They have a settler, but, they should have 4 additional free support and 1 for each city at this level. Though, the agricultural trait got designed by Breakaway Games, not Firaxis. So, some difference in coding scheme I suppose might lead to a bug, or I guess that's a counterbalance by Breakaway Games on the agricultural trait. Korea has a settler a turn later, but still has their starting warrior.

Korea and Babylon meet in 2850 BC, but no evdience of trading. Germany and Greece meet in 2670 BC. Germany uniquely had/has The Wheel before and after meeting Greece. I guess maximum opponents isn't as likely to result in trading, the lower the level due in part to the lesser AI to AI trade rate.

Yea, assuming that the number of huts stays the same (I doubt that it does though... but maybe it doesn't change much), fewer opponents might be superior.

 

[BlackBetsy]

The greater the number of scientific opponents, the greater the probability that all of the free techs will get drawn by some AI. Also, with more scientific opponents, the free techs can be less expensive more often, if everyone gets gifted up.

Yes, although the more I've learned playing this, you don't need them to get Feudalism initially (and you actually can avoid Chivalry as a free tech) since the Regent & Monarch AI will research it while you go down the Theology/Education/Astronomy/Banking path. And in the Industrial Age, all you really want is Steam Power and Medicine. The numbers are *really* most important at the Modern Age when it comes to someone getting Fission if you are playing for Diplo.

I find that Monarch AI won't give up Feudalism if they have a monopoly on it for anything you can enter the Medieval Age with reasonably. I have a game going where I was giving the Ottomans 300 gold, 30 gpt + the Republic + Engineering + Monotheism + Literature and it wasn't enough. When I pulled Theology, I even gifted Mono and put it into the table instead of Monotheism and it was only "close" to a deal. It took me Education to get Feudalism later.

Reliably the Monarch AI will research Iron Working while a human pursues Writing / Code of Laws / Philosophy/ Republic, and if you do Currency / Construction, they will do MapMaking for you, and *maybe* half the time they will do Poly. I try to trade away Mysticism as soon as possible / cheaply to entice them to get Poly. Sometimes they pop HBR, sometimes I pop it. I don't know if I've ever traded for CoL or Philo (disaster) or Currency at Monarch level.

Perfect luck is running into the Alphabet AI and having them trade Alpha for CB and Pottery and then being able to use Alpha with the others while you get lucky and pop the Wheel / HBR. If the AI weren't out there popping a lot of huts, the dominant strategy would be to wait until you contact the AI to pop any huts once you've popped a settler, which I've done on the lower levels where they don't have units roaming.

Yea, assuming that the number of huts stays the same (I doubt that it does though... but maybe it doesn't change much), fewer opponents might be superior.

I'd really like to know the answer to that. In SirPleb's Standard game, he was playing against Chieftain AI and therefore he had a plethora of huts because the AI didn't have the free units roaming around. At Monarch, the free units they get are really taking up the huts. Basically, at the Monarch level, you need better than average luck on getting techs vs. maps / warriors.

 

[Spoonwood]

I have a game going where I was giving the Ottomans 300 gold, 30 gpt + the Republic + Engineering + Monotheism + Literature and it wasn't enough.

I'm guessing that the Ottomans were the only AI that had it?

When I pulled Theology, I even gifted Mono and put it into the table instead of Monotheism and it was only "close" to a deal. It took me Education to get Feudalism later.

I had initially dismissed your comment about avoiding Chivalry as a free tech (we do need Feudalism eventually... why not trade for it as soon as possible?). But, after reading your comment, I finally realized that if you have Monotheism and Engineering from the AIs, then you can only get Theology and Feudalism as free techs. So, the probability of getting Theology is 1/2. But, if you have traded for Feudalism, Monotheism, and Engineering, then you can get Theology, Chivalry, and Engineering, so drawing Theology has 1/3 probability.

I think I finally understand the entire theory of trading for free techs for a spaceship game now also as a result of this discussion! (when you think you can trade for one... many of my Deity and maybe Demigod games didn't have trading for free techs using What's the Big Picture? I don't think for my Sid spaceship game also. Though it might be possible to save enough gold and gpt at higher levels, and sometimes trading for Code of Laws while researching Philosophy is possible, so the medieval jump might work)

1. During the middle ages, trade for Monotheism for the possibility of Theology and Engineering to get another tech out of the way. Avoid Feudalism, so you can't draw Chivalry.

2. During the industrial age change trade for Steam Power, since the most valuable free tech is Electricity. Trade for Medicine also, since that doesn't change the probability of drawing Electricity.

3. During the modern age change trade for Computers, since what comes as most useful is Miniaturization. Trading for Fission and Rocketry don't change any probability, since they only have 1 succeeding technology. But, if you trade for Ecology, then you could draw both the optional technology of Recycling and Synthetic Fibers. So, the probability of drawing an optional technology for spaceship launch would increase. Thus, Computers, Fission, and Rocketry end up the only techs that work out best to trade for.

4. Then after you draw your free tech, then you can (try to) trade for Ecology or Feudalism. Though, you might want to wait on trading for Nationalism, so not every scientific AI knows it during the modern era change.

The principle I think is that it works out desire-able to trade for something you need eventually like Engineering, but only when it doesn't increase the probability of some optional technology (and Recycling is optional for a spaceship game).

Thank you BlackBetsy, I've learned something as a result of this discussion!

 

[BlackBetsy]

But, after reading your comment, I finally realized that if you have Monotheism and Engineering from the AIs, then you can only get Theology and Feudalism as free techs. So, the probability of getting Theology is 1/2. But, if you have traded for Feudalism, Monotheism, and Engineering, then you can get Theology, Chivalry, and Engineering, so drawing Theology has 1/3 probability.

You mean Invention obviously, but it's not quite the point.

1. During the middle ages, trade for Monotheism for the possibility of Theology and Engineering to get another tech out of the way. Avoid Feudalism, so you can't draw Chivalry.

I do try to trade for Feudalism when I can get it, especially if 2 AI have it and it's not a monopoly tech. If its not a monopoly, the Republic + Mono or Republic + Engineering is enough. At lower levels, Republic alone gets it. But I don't go into debt to get it (e.g., -45 per turn at 100% science, maxxing out taxmen, etc.) because I still have a 50% chance at Theo and I can eventually get Feudalism without losing research progress. And at that part of the game, I can't run 50% research to pay off a 20 turn debt since you never get all your GPT back.

It's still better to trade for Feudalism because you then have a 67% chance of getting 4 required techs to start the Medieval Age vs. a 100% chance of 3 required techs with a 50% chance of getting the 4th later in trade without researching. Yes, you avoid Chivalry, but you are still at 3 techs by avoiding Chivalry and you have a 50% chance of being in the *same* place from a tech standpoint. But its not a terrible downside so its an acceptable risk.

Trade for Feudalism, Engineering, Mono - 3 required techs. 67% chance of a 4th required tech (Invention, Theo), 33% chance of staying at 3 required techs.

Trade for Engineering and Mono - 2 required techs. 50% chance of Feudalism, 50% chance of Theo. Either way, 3 required techs, same as pulling Chivalry after trading for all 3. But 50% chance of getting Theo, which in effect gives you a free tech through post-Big Picture trading.

So its 33% worst case trading for all 3 vs. 50% worst case trading for Engineering/Mono.

 

[BlackBetsy]

3. During the modern age change trade for Computers, since what comes as most useful is Miniaturization. Trading for Fission and Rocketry don't change any probability, since they only have 1 succeeding technology. But, if you trade for Ecology, then you could draw both the optional technology of Recycling and Synthetic Fibers. So, the probability of drawing an optional technology for spaceship launch would increase. Thus, Computers, Fission, and Rocketry end up the only techs that work out best to trade for.

100%

 

[Spoonwood]

You mean Invention obviously, but it's not quite the point.

Oops, yea should have been "Theology, Chivalry, and Invention".

I do try to trade for Feudalism when I can get it, especially if 2 AI have it and it's not a monopoly tech.

It's still better to trade for Feudalism

I hadn't read all of what you wrote before I wrote this, but this gives you another perspective.

It could make sense to trade for Feudalism during the "What's the Big Picture" phase if you can't trade for Monotheism. Then it would save the AIs potentially from starting research on Feudalism. Also, then you can't draw it as a free tech. If the AIs get Feudalism and Engineering, then trading for both technologies doesn't change the probability of drawing Monotheism at all. And drawing Invention is better than drawing Engineering since the AIs can then get it sooner and start on Gunpowder.

But, if you have Monotheism, I don't see how it can make sense to trade for Feudalism. I know that I've certainly wanted to do that a bunch of times, and it can be difficult to get past feelings on this.

After the Big Picture phase, then trading for Feudalism to other AIs, if not all of them, and gifting it away could make sense to do immediately so they can pick up Invention more quickly and Gunpowder also hopefully (if not further ideally maybe). Completing Banking and Astronomy and then needing to research along the lower branch when an AI finishes before you isn't ideal, I think.

It's still better to trade for Feudalism because you then have a 67% chance of getting 4 required techs to start the Medieval Age vs. a 100% chance of 3 required techs with a 50% chance of getting the 4th later in trade without researching

Not all required technologies end up equal in value though. Drawing Invention has lower value than getting Theology, since Theology gets you to universities and Cope's more quickly.

It could make sense to trade for Feudalism, yes, you're correct on a point. Because, then you can draw Invention and gift it away so that they start research on Gunpowder. But, the fastest possible run among the many maps isn't going to have Invention as a free tech anyways. The fastest possible run will have Theology as the free tech.

I think your reasoning about trading for Feudalism applies to a situation where the human player will play this one map, and that's it. Then, trading for Feudalism and the others maximizes the probability of getting a technology deeper into the tree. And getting deeper into the tree matters most for one run. But, if we're talking about the best map run with the most luck, then trading for Feudalism doesn't make sense. You've been evaluating the reward of a getting a free tech. Yes, that's higher with all techs traded for. But, the reward for getting the right tech for Theology ends up higher by not trading for Feudalism.

 

[BlackBetsy]

I think your reasoning about trading for Feudalism applies to a situation where the human player will play this one map, and that's it. Then, trading for Feudalism and the others maximizes the probability of getting a technology deeper into the tree. And getting deeper into the tree matters most for one run. But, if we're talking about the best map run with the most luck, then trading for Feudalism doesn't make sense. You've been evaluating the reward of a getting a free tech. Yes, that's higher with all techs traded for. But, the reward for getting the right tech for Theology ends up higher by not trading for Feudalism.

I think you may be making the most exquisite meta-point about any Mapfinder-driven chart-topping HOF run. You should always choose the option that, if you have reasonable luck, leads to the best result and will shorten the game because you will be discarding bad-luck events anyway. This is, of course, a corollary of the point you made a few months back that all HOF games are played optimally. You should play all HOF games as if they are going to be optimal, produce the best luck, etc.

 

[Spoonwood]

This is, of course, a corollary of the point you made a few months back that all HOF games are played optimally.

I was just thinking that for their map, those games were optimally played, since the map has a unique player. I wasn't thinking about MapFinder runs there only, because I know plenty of games are not MapFinder driven runs (including some of my own).

You should play all HOF games as if they are going to be optimal, produce the best luck, etc.

Maybe for science purposes, if going for a high or top spot (on levels where the AIs are weak research wise). But, even for MapFinder found maps, for military operations, that would seem foolish. I mean like attacking with a 1/4 cavalry will lead to too many losses. Not building barracks isn't sound in plenty of cases, even if it could be economically optimal.

Discarding bad luck events also doesn't strike me as right for tables with less than 10 entries on them. Unless one feels extremely sure that he will soon get something better to submit.

But I do think if we're talking about free techs, choosing the option that leads to the greater amount of opportunity as the better choice. And I think you're on the right track here for a science game with respect to trading for technologies now.

 

[BlackBetsy]

Attempt #76 worked out with a 640 AD finish. Critically, we had a 3000 BC SGL with Mysticism, and I already had Masonry, so the Pyramids completed in 2950 BC. This rapidly fueled expansion, with 20 cities by 1000 BC. Hut luck was good but not great; popped settler in 3900 after founding capital in 3950 BC. AI researched MapMaking for me, but I popped Iron Working, HBR, Math, and Code of Laws after I slowed down Philosophy to pop it. Hand researched Currency, Construction and Poly even though the AI had Mysticism from me for a very long time.

As mentioned, I couldn't get Feudalism in trade at first, but lucked out with Theology on the Medieval Big Picture and back traded for Feudalism with Education. Education was only 10 turns, if I recall, but a reasonably early Colossus (975BC) and big empire got research going fast. Astronomy got down to 8 turns and then Banking I think in 5 after a 1-turn SGL fueled Cope and as Libraries and Universities finished. I lost out on Maus as with only three native lux, I built the Hanging Gardens while the AI got their lux sources hooked up.

Industrial age in 170 BC, and I timed the completion of Newtons with an SGL for the start of the Industrial Age. For the first time in ages, I pulled Electricity! I worked like crazy to get Industrialization to 4 turns after the Golden Age reduced it to 5 turns.

Had troops ready to go to invade Japan where I was SURE the coal would be hiding if I didn't get any. But a free coal source popped up 4 tiles away in a free space between the Greeks and the Persians so I grabbed it and started railroading after I had to road through the jungle to get there.

Industrialization in 4, Corp in 4, SciMeth in 4, Rep Parts in 4 when I got science up to 100% with a new foreign lux online, and Steel for 4. Refining and Combustion both took 5, but Mass Prod and Motorized were 4 with Flight @ 5. So only 3 turns over the minimum for the Industrial Age.

Big Picture was unlucky when no one got Fission. But I immediately got the choice to select Space Flight when I set research to Fission, so I knew I pulled it. Flipped palace to UN and there we had it - victory in 640 AD, just 3 turns before @Tone 670 AD finish.

If accepted, #2 Monarch Standard Diplo, getting my Standard best to a #2. It also would push one of my own games from 2005 off the table - a 1240 AD finish that looks laughable now. 60 turns slower!

Reasonably, I could have flipped this to a Spaceship game and easily had the #2 there as well, as it is 60 turns behind.

 

[BlackBetsy]

Considering my next option. Assuming my #2 Emperor game is accepted, I still have a #3 on Deity and a #3 on 20k. I've scoured the 20k tables and, to be honest, I don't know if I can even brute force a #2 anywhere on those tables.

I've got a decent option for a Deity #2, which I am going to run MapFinder on soon.

Ultimately, I think to really move up the Quartermaster ranks I'm going to have to improve my histographic score with a 40k+ score on huge. That will be my highest score ever...by a lot. I think I can pull it off on Huge Demigod, which, to be fair, is not a hard level to just win through conquest/domination. I am almost inclined to go with a Pangaea, but I 100% know that the best scores are through 80% land archipelagos. I have an inclination for Maya, but I can also see the Netherlands as an option for the seafaring trait. I've never done the Netherlands before. I would also consider Sumeria in a play for an early SGL to build the Pyramids, although that is less important on an archipelago.

 

[Spoonwood]

I am almost inclined to go with a Pangaea, but I 100% know that the best scores are through 80% land archipelagos.

Those scores come from the 60% water archipelagos, and 40% land archipelagos (as a rough estimate). You select the water amount. 80% water archipelagos can commonly get seen in the Demigod, Deity, and Sid 20k entries. 60% water archipelagos in the huge histographic entries.

Huge Demigod Histographic has 10 entries. The 10th place entry scored 31,200 points by the legendary @CKS . CKS has 155 entries in the database (which isn't just what's on the table currently, but also includes entries that got excluded because of later submissions). Only @Tone with 192 entries has more entries in the database. Perhaps CKS would not mind if you bested his entry. I do not know how he would feel on this, or what he would thinks here.

Checking in the Statistics section, CKS does have two other histographic entries in the table that I see. So, he would remain a quartermaster if you submitted a higher scoring entry.

I do believe that you could accomplish a Huge Deity Histographic game. That could easily have a higher scoring result. And Huge Deity Histographic only has 8 entries at this point in time.

I do think you could also score higher on a Large 60% arhcipelago Deity map (wet, warm, and 5 billion year old maps have the most potential), since your Large Deity Histographic game got played on a 70% pangea map.

I would also consider Sumeria in a play for an early SGL to build the Pyramids, although that is less important on an archipelago.

I will note here that all of @EMan 's Huge histographic entries with The Maya had an SGL that got used for The Pyramids. As a reminder, non-scientific civs have a 3% probability of getting an SGL when learning a technology first, while, in contrast, scientific civs have a 5% probability. Though perhaps, you find it more form fitting for a scientific civ to get an SGL early.

 

[Spoonwood]

Also, if you setup gpt (or technology) for luxury/resource deals in the Active tab when renegotiating a peace treaty, and pillage afterwards so that the AI declares war on your people, then I believe you already have a good jump on achieving a higher score. As long as you don't export luxuries/resources also, of course. From my perspective, I think we could even view such deals followed by pillaging as the responsible thing to do. For why should the ruler declare war on AIs and potentially or actually make their citizens happier? Does it not seem more sensible for the responsible ruler to try to do things for the happiness and contentedness of his people when it does not interfere with his plans? Pillage for your people, I say! Let them be a little happier to go to war!

 

[BlackBetsy]

I'm thinking that I have too many opponents and the map is too crowded for Standard. I went with 6 opponents (Persia, Ottomans, Greeks, Koreans, Japan, Germans) on 60% Pangaea. I was up against the other civs by city #30 on Monarch Standard, meaning I just have too many AI out there taking up space. 4 is too few for Big Picture purposes, so I might go for 5 and just the scientific civs.

Edit: Nothing like playing another 100 maps to 3400 BC.

Stupidly, I had forgotten that Japan is Religious and therefore started with Ceremonial Burial, meaning I couldn't even possibly get a CB SGL.

 

[Spoonwood]

Stupidly, I had forgotten that Japan is Religious and therefore started with Ceremonial Burial, meaning I couldn't even possibly get a CB SGL.

Since you're using MapFinder now, have you been rolling for maps from MapFinder with the domination limit in mind?

 

[BlackBetsy]

Since you're using MapFinder now, have you been rolling for maps from MapFinder with the domination limit in mind?

Not on my current, since I am not going for histographic, but when I do go for histographic, I will be taking that into account. Is there a threshold dom limit you like on Huge 60% water archipelago?

 

[Bartleby]

I'd say 4400 is the bare minimum for a 60% archipelago. Over 4500 is not that rare, but if you want a high-food starting location you might have to settle for less.