Borders of Europe, 2057

[RedRalph]

Europes borders rarely remain stable for more than a few decades. No doubt the coming ones wont be much different. Here are the changes I can see occuring in the next 50 years (please note I'm just saying they may occur, not that they definitely will. Please discuss, this should get some good mileage!

1. Kosovo secedes from Serbia. thats one that WILL happen. Who will recognise it is another matter...

2. Transdniester secedes from Moldova

3. Russia and Belarus merge. Pretty likely in the long term. Lukashenko is a bit of an obstacle, but Lukashenko wont be in power forever.

4. Scotland secedes from the UK. May well happen, more likely is even greater autonomy than at present.

5. Northern Ireland merges with Republic of Ireland. Just a matter of time. I'd say in the next 25 years that will come to pass.

6. Belgium splits. Possible, but unlikely because the status of Brussels would be a diffcult one, and it being EU and NATO HQ, not many people want to see Brussles destablised.

7. Czechoslovakia reforms. Again, unlikely but not unthinkable. the split was amicable, there could emerge a situation where its advantageous to both parties to reunite. theyd probably have to call it Slovakiczechia this time though

8. Independence for the Basque region. Unlikely

9. Vojvodina splits from Serbia. I think Belgrade would mdraw the line at this and use force to try and stop it

10. Ukraine splits; one side joins EU, other side joins Russia after a few years independence. Cant be ruled out

11. Kosovo rejoins Albania. Expressely forbidden by EU, but if it becomes clearly a self-determination issue, they may have to relent


anyone think of any others???

 

[Verbose]

If the UK looks like breaking up to you, you really should take a closer gander at Spain, and not just the Basques.

Then there's the Belgian headache.

I guess the Lega Nord isn't looking like effectuating an Italian split at the moment, but from a purely egostist local and financial POV that would probably make sense.

 

[Arwon]

Spain isn't going to break up. It's essentially a federal state now, but that's about as far as devolution will go barring major crisis... a degree of decentralisation and regional autonomy that is pretty unusual for Europe, but over the history of Spain, is actually pretty much par for the course.

REally, along with the UK, Spain is essentially a poster child for the principle that granting greater autonomy and devolved powers is a surefire way to sap the strength of independentist sentiment.

 

[neviden]

Border? Oh, you mean an imaginary line like they drew once on a historic sites like Maginot line?

EU makes borders and wars obsolete. That is kind of a point of a EU.

 

[RedRalph]

Border? Oh, you mean an imaginary line like they drew once on a historic sites like Maginot line?

EU makes borders and wars obsolete. That is kind of a point of a EU.

not all Europe is in the EU man. and if you think theyre obsolete, why not suggest to a Pole that Germanys borders should be moved one inch Eastwards.

 

[Eran of Arcadia]

I'm sure that isn't wishful thinking . . . I don't see borders disappearing for a long time.

I expect Europe to be the 51st state by 2057.

Wait, what?

 

[Stolen Rutters]

Speaking about the EU, you might see a thicker border on the map for the EU, to delineate the nations within the EU from all the other countries nearby. Right now, the EU doesn't exist on maps as a region yet, at least not maps I have seen (maybe because it's new, and the membership might still change).

(Oh, and the map better be in English. I'll be way too old to try to learn to read it in a foreign language.)

 

[neviden]

not all Europe is in the EU man. and if you think theyre obsolete, why not suggest to a Pole that Germanys borders should be moved one inch Eastwards.

Well, we are talking about 2057, right? You should ask Poles what they think about Germanys borders then.. Or even if they know where they were.. kind of like you can ask Germans about French borders now.

Official border should be somewhere near Russia or even further east by then and it will look like a border between EU and Switzerland.

 

[RedRalph]

I'm sure that isn't wishful thinking . . . I don't see borders disappearing for a long time.

I expect Europe to be the 51st state by 2057.

Wait, what?

Or maybe the US will become the 30-somethingth EU member

 

[RedRalph]

To put it another way, if you could alter european borders now, what would you do? (if its 100% unrealistic dont bother)

 

[Eran of Arcadia]

I would do all sorts of stuff, some more realistic than others. Like:

Merge Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland, make Scotland independent, and turn England/Wales into a republic.

Merge Poland, Lithuania, and Kaliningrad.

Merge Finland, Estonia, and Karelia.

Merge Romania and Moldova.

Split Belgium up, with Walloon to France, Flanders to the Netherlands, and Brussels the semi-independent capital of the EU.

Attach Monaco to France, Andorra to Spain, and San Marino and the Vatican to Italy.

Attach Kosovo to Albania.

Attach Thrace to Greece.

Split Siberia off from European Russia.

(Aren't you all glad I'm not the one making these decisions? I just think the map would look better that way.)

 

[RedRalph]

(Aren't you all glad I'm not the one making these decisions? I just think the map would look better that way.)

I have to admit theres an element of "it looks good" to it too.

I'd

Have BeNeLux as one country

Reform Czechoslovakia

Merge all the FYRs and bulgaria to create a giant federation of South slavs

Unite Ireland and Scotland

attach Belarus to Russia


all for aesthetic reasons, of course

 

[RedRalph]

Split Siberia off from European Russia.

Incredibly, it would still be the biggest nation on earth if this happened

 

[neviden]

I would give everyone their own local government and make everyone bound to the same rules of law. And for those that have too much nationalistic pride and time on their hands I would send them to cheer for their favorite football team

Really, look at the EU.. in the past whenever big state emerged in Europe all the rest joined to fight against it. But right now when a big “state” emerged (EU) everybody wants to join it. And there isn’t even a threat of a bigger enemy that would be a threat to them to make them join their forces. EU is like a big monster in that it keeps growing and growing by having others join completely voluntary. And everybody is just drawn to it.. eventually it will suck in every European country even some that are complete basket cases now and will transform them in the process..

 

[RedRalph]

I would give everyone their own local government and make everyone bound to the same rules of law. And for those that have too much nationalistic pride and time on their hands I would send them to cheer for their favorite football team

Really, look at the EU.. in the past whenever big state emerged in Europe all the rest joined to fight against it. But right now when a big “state” emerged (EU) everybody wants to join it. And there isn’t even a threat of a bigger enemy that would be a threat to them to make them join their forces. EU is like a big monster in that it keeps growing and growing by having others join completely voluntary. And everybody is just drawn to it.. eventually it will suck in every European country even some that are complete basket cases now and will transform them in the process..

not russia. Potentially too big and powerful. wouldnt be in Germany, UK or French interest

 

[Che Guava]

Alrighty, here's my $0.02 on it....

1. Kosovo secedes from Serbia. thats one that WILL happen. Who will recognise it is another matter...

Yeah, I think that's a pretty certain eventuality..

2. Transdniester secedes from Moldova

Hasn't that basicly happened already?

3. Russia and Belarus merge. Pretty likely in the long term. Lukashenko is a bit of an obstacle, but Lukashenko wont be in power forever.

Maybe in the more distant future, but the sense I get now is that economic integration is the closest we are going to see.

4. Scotland secedes from the UK. May well happen, more likely is even greater autonomy than at present.

I'm not too well versed in UK politics, but I have to say I'll be surpirsed if the day comes that scotland decides to leave the UK completely...

5. Northern Ireland merges with Republic of Ireland. Just a matter of time. I'd say in the next 25 years that will come to pass.

A probable eventuality, but I think there is still a lot of political inertia around this idea in Northern Ireland. I think things will stay as they are until demographics in the north start to really change...

6. Belgium splits. Possible, but unlikely because the status of Brussels would be a diffcult one, and it being EU and NATO HQ, not many people want to see Brussles destablised.

I hope not! Hold on Belgium!!

7. Czechoslovakia reforms. Again, unlikely but not unthinkable. the split was amicable, there could emerge a situation where its advantageous to both parties to reunite. theyd probably have to call it Slovakiczechia this time though

Don't see it happening....

8. Independence for the Basque region. Unlikely

Very. I think the EPA is on a slow descent now, and it seems that most are happy with the autonomy granted to the basques in spain...

9. Vojvodina splits from Serbia. I think Belgrade would mdraw the line at this and use force to try and stop it

I think that the Vojvodinians would probably opt for just greater autonomy, and leave it at that...

10. Ukraine splits; one side joins EU, other side joins Russia after a few years independence. Cant be ruled out

Can't be ruled out, but can't see it happeneing either!

11. Kosovo rejoins Albania. Expressely forbidden by EU, but if it becomes clearly a self-determination issue, they may have to relent

Tough time seeing that one too, but who knows?


As for others, does anyone think that Corsica could make another run at independence, or maybe just more autonomy?

Maybe the Faroes Islands making a go of it alone?

Is there trouble brewing in Crimea for a tartar state?

 

[REDY]

I think that FYROM should be split between Bulgaria and Albania

Reform Czechoslovakia should be invited by majority of Czechs and Slovaks but I dont think its realistic.

 

[Winner]

Europes borders rarely remain stable for more than a few decades. No doubt the coming ones wont be much different. Here are the changes I can see occuring in the next 50 years (please note I'm just saying they may occur, not that they definitely will. Please discuss, this should get some good mileage!

1. Kosovo secedes from Serbia. thats one that WILL happen. Who will recognise it is another matter...

That would be a disaster.

2. Transdniester secedes from Moldova

I guess that the chances are Moldova will be annexed by Romania.

3. Russia and Belarus merge. Pretty likely in the long term. Lukashenko is a bit of an obstacle, but Lukashenko wont be in power forever.

I don't think so. Belarussians don't want to join Russia, Lukashenko did.

4. Scotland secedes from the UK. May well happen, more likely is even greater autonomy than at present.

Possible.

5. Northern Ireland merges with Republic of Ireland. Just a matter of time. I'd say in the next 25 years that will come to pass.

Possible.

6. Belgium splits. Possible, but unlikely because the status of Brussels would be a diffcult one, and it being EU and NATO HQ, not many people want to see Brussles destablised.

Might happen.

7. Czechoslovakia reforms. Again, unlikely but not unthinkable. the split was amicable, there could emerge a situation where its advantageous to both parties to reunite. theyd probably have to call it Slovakiczechia this time though

Not going to happen, believe me. The only thing harder than splitting a country is reuniting it We are members of the EU anyway, so it doesn't matter now.

8. Independence for the Basque region. Unlikely

They'll get even greater autonomy, like Catalan.

9. Vojvodina splits from Serbia. I think Belgrade would mdraw the line at this and use force to try and stop it

Won't happen, Serbs have a majority there, besides Hungarians aren't so aggressive in their demands as Albanians.

10. Ukraine splits; one side joins EU, other side joins Russia after a few years independence. Cant be ruled out

Yeah, but it's unlikely.

11. Kosovo rejoins Albania. Expressely forbidden by EU, but if it becomes clearly a self-determination issue, they may have to relent

Let's nuke the whole place, as Cleric would say

anyone think of any others???

Cyprus unites, North Italy declares independence, Southern Slovakia secedes and joins Hungary, Bosnia finally disintegrates and...

... the EU becomes one country

 

[warpus]

5. Northern Ireland merges with Republic of Ireland. Just a matter of time. I'd say in the next 25 years that will come to pass.

I seriously doubt this will ever happen. The people of Northern Ireland don't want this.

7. Czechoslovakia reforms. Again, unlikely but not unthinkable. the split was amicable, there could emerge a situation where its advantageous to both parties to reunite. theyd probably have to call it Slovakiczechia this time though

As likely as Poland and Lithuania merging into one country again.

I don't think you'll see any border changes in Europe, except for in the balkans, in the next 50 years.

 

[aronnax]

Turkish Thrace is called Turkish for a reason, attaching it to Greece will spark massice protests.

I would recreate yugoslavia with one monarch but obvioulsy some kinks need to be work out.
Seperate Northen Italy from Southen Italy. Cause of the obvious economic development
Rejoined Moldova with Romainia
Have Ukraine and Belarus join russia
have crimea as a state or part of turkey
Have Cyprus spilt
Have Belgium split and sold off to Netherlands, France and Luxembourg
Blow Liechenstien off the map
united ireland
recreate the Kalmar Nation
seperate germany into the Holy German Republic.
Have the Turks restore their Sultan as a constiutional monarch, start calling themselves the Kingdom of Ottomans and began plans to reunite the muslims lands

Outside Europe
Restart the Caliph with all Arab nations
Split Aceh from Indonesia
Blow Taiwan off the map
Let Australia take Papua New Guinea
unite Mexico with the central american countries
Find the jews a new homeland (there wont be so much trouble if the British just chose New York)