Europes borders rarely remain stable for more than a few decades. No doubt the coming ones wont be much different. Here are the changes I can see occuring in the next 50 years (please note I'm just saying they may occur, not that they definitely will. Please discuss, this should get some good mileage!
1. Kosovo secedes from Serbia. thats one that WILL happen. Who will recognise it is another matter...
Yeah that could happen. Would deliver another crisis though...
2. Transdniester secedes from Moldova
I haven't looked up any information about that and I don't know off the top of my head anything about transdniester so no comment.
3. Russia and Belarus merge. Pretty likely in the long term. Lukashenko is a bit of an obstacle, but Lukashenko wont be in power forever.
I highly doubt any european countries are going to merge.
4. Scotland secedes from the UK. May well happen, more likely is even greater autonomy than at present.
Would be cool, but it will never ever happen. The central power of london is so great, they will never accept a crisis in their back yard.
5. Northern Ireland merges with Republic of Ireland. Just a matter of time. I'd say in the next 25 years that will come to pass.
That would be at least a bit likely, but again, london is very central istic.
6. Belgium splits. Possible, but unlikely because the status of Brussels would be a diffcult one, and it being EU and NATO HQ, not many people want to see Brussles destablised.
I'd really like to see this happening. Flanders and Wallonia would be two separate countries with Brussels as an international area. The problem is that neither EU or NATO will allow a crisis in the heart of them. They will do everything to prevent this from happening.
7. Czechoslovakia reforms. Again, unlikely but not unthinkable. the split was amicable, there could emerge a situation where its advantageous to both parties to reunite. theyd probably have to call it Slovakiczechia this time though
Won't happen.
8. Independence for the Basque region. Unlikely
Won't happen, but probably some more autonomy.
9. Vojvodina splits from Serbia. I think Belgrade would mdraw the line at this and use force to try and stop it
That would be another major crisis... I don't think it'll happen though, at least not in the near future.
10. Ukraine splits; one side joins EU, other side joins Russia after a few years independence. Cant be ruled out
Ukraine forms one cultural country, so a split is very unlikely.
11. Kosovo rejoins Albania. Expressely forbidden by EU, but if it becomes clearly a self-determination issue, they may have to relent
Would really be a terrible crisis.
anyone think of any others???
More autonomy for Catalonia and Galicia, but independance is unlikely. Maybe bosnia could split?
).
it's like almost every foreigner suggests this.
