Brace up for new Crimean War

[RedRalph]

It's actually will be interesting to watch what will happen on next Ukrainian elections. The current Western candidate for orange presidency went bad, they will have to do something with this. Finance new orange revolution with some other candidate, or may be try to revive Yuschenko.
The recent Russian diplomatic demarsh is also somehow linked with upcoming elections IMO.

Get ready to watch episod II "Ukrainian freedom-loving people against Russian tyranny", announced in December 2009.

Yushenko is finished, his popularity has disappeared. I think its at 7% now. Tymoshenko could win, but Yanukovich is slightly head in polls (or was last time I checked), but I think a coalition is m ore likely. Put it this way, NATO isnt going to happen anytime soon.

 

[Winner]

So what you are saying basically is this. If Ukraine elects a know pro-Russian politician as president, who has a long track record of favouring friendship with Russia over the EU, with his closest adversary, Yulia Tymoshenko, opely courting Russia by refusing to condemn it, Ukraine will drift away from Russia and towards the EU?

Meh, it's not that childishly simply as you want it to be Janukovič, even if he's elected, will not have the power to fundamentally alter the post-Orange revolution course of Ukrainian foreign policy. That's a very realistic assesment given how the Ukrainian political system works.

Any new Ukrainian government will face the same problems as the present-day establishment. In order to promote growth and prosperity, Ukraine needs to get closer to the EU. This will be opposed by Russia who is likely to use gas supplies as a leverage, thus further alienating the Ukrainians. Other issues poisoning the Ukrainian-Russian relationship (Crimean bases, trade disputes...) won't disappear overnight either, as you naively think.

Therefore, even a leader who is friendly to Russia on a personal level will have to take the interests of his country and feelings of his people into consideration. Bending over backwards to Russia would only make such a leader appear weak and impotent, which is a political suicide in pretty much any democratic country.

The problem could be simplified (hopefully enough for you to understand it) as follows: Russia wants a puppet in Ukraine, a subservient government which will place Russian interests higher than the interests of its own country. No sovereign and mentally sane Ukrainian government will give that to the Russiams, ergo the conflict of interests will continue.

If your guys get elected into important positions in Ukraine, we can expect lighter rhetorics with regard to Russia, but little more.

winner, you claim to be studying international politics, but if this really is your forecast, you should ask for your fees back. you are, yet again, confusing what you want to happen with what is actually going to happen.

No, I just have a thing called insight, whereas your understanding of the issue hardly goes beyond headlines.

Fortunately, there is this thing called reality which will show who was right soon enough.

 

[Tekee]

In order to promote growth and prosperity, Ukraine needs to get closer to the EU. This will be opposed by Russia who is likely to use gas supplies as a leverage, thus further alienating the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainians have been trying to get closer to the Wet and EU for years, and they keep getting poorer and poorer, as opposed to general trends in the rest of east europe. Ukraine had 5 years to prove that the West and EU is the way to prosperity but it has not happened, it has ******ed growth. My mothers friend in Ukraine, in the year 2004 said that the big political revolution hasn't changed anything, life in the villages is still the same. While my Russian relatives say that daily life in Russia has gotten much better. In those same years, Ukraine has a much more pessimistic outlook on its future because the pro-Western government has only exploited Ukraine. And real Ukrainians who are not the great "emigre" Ukrainians can ask themselves why hasn't this pro-westernism given them prosperity of the west?

Crimea should separate to avoid a war and join into Russian camp because only after this will Ukraine become happy and successful.

 

[RedRalph]

Meh, it's not that childishly simply as you want it to be Janukovič, even if he's elected, will not have the power to fundamentally alter the post-Orange revolution course of Ukrainian foreign policy. That's a very realistic assesment given how the Ukrainian political system works.

Any new Ukrainian government will face the same problems as the present-day establishment. In order to promote growth and prosperity, Ukraine needs to get closer to the EU. This will be opposed by Russia who is likely to use gas supplies as a leverage, thus further alienating the Ukrainians. Other issues poisoning the Ukrainian-Russian relationship (Crimean bases, trade disputes...) won't disappear overnight either, as you naively think.

Therefore, even a leader who is friendly to Russia on a personal level will have to take the interests of his country and feelings of his people into consideration. Bending over backwards to Russia would only make such a leader appear weak and impotent, which is a political suicide in pretty much any democratic country.

The problem could be simplified (hopefully enough for you to understand it) as follows: Russia wants a puppet in Ukraine, a subservient government which will place Russian interests higher than the interests of its own country. No sovereign and mentally sane Ukrainian government will give that to the Russiams, ergo the conflict of interests will continue.

If your guys get elected into important positions in Ukraine, we can expect lighter rhetorics with regard to Russia, but little more.



No, I just have a thing called insight, whereas your understanding of the issue hardly goes beyond headlines.

Fortunately, there is this thing called reality which will show who was right soon enough.

There is simply no logic whatsoever to your argument winner, its flies in the face of all facts and common sense. What has fundamentally changed since the 'orange revolution', might I ask? Presumeably you will concede that Yanukovich was pretty pro-Russian last time he was in power, what specifically has changed so that he cannot be anymore?

 

[TheLastOne36]

The Ukrainians have been trying to get closer to the Wet and EU for years, and they keep getting poorer and poorer, as opposed to general trends in the rest of east europe. Ukraine had 5 years to prove that the West and EU is the way to prosperity but it has not happened, it has ******ed growth. My mothers friend in Ukraine, in the year 2004 said that the big political revolution hasn't changed anything, life in the villages is still the same. While my Russian relatives say that daily life in Russia has gotten much better. In those same years, Ukraine has a much more pessimistic outlook on its future because the pro-Western government has only exploited Ukraine. And real Ukrainians who are not the great "emigre" Ukrainians can ask themselves why hasn't this pro-westernism given them prosperity of the west?

Crimea should separate to avoid a war and join into Russian camp because only after this will Ukraine become happy and successful.

Ukrainians are getting poorer because of the global economic crisis, the fact they weren't very rich in the first place, plus a govornment that can't do anything because of how Ukraine is split in half.

It's not about westernizing.

 

[Tekee]

There is simply no logic whatsoever to your argument winner, its flies in the face of all facts and common sense. What has fundamentally changed since the 'orange revolution', might I ask? Presumeably you will concede that Yanukovich was pretty pro-Russian last time he was in power, what specifically has changed so that he cannot be anymore?

Even Yuia is more pro-russian then pro-western now, Pro-Western Yakovyich's party is ruined, there is no need for war if Ukraine cooperates now more closely with its natural slavic partner. Ukrainian elites and emigre has alienated its people with its shameless endorsement of the west and now even the political elites are turning around. I always wondered too, with such importance to Russia, the Crimea was long fought over with russian and Ukrainian souls and we give it to a country that hates us? This is a painful issue and war is not out of question in my mind as this as a liberation of Ukraine from its western thieves who currently run it into the ground.

Either Crimea accomplishes its goal of seperation from Ukraine, an example set by Kosovo. (even if only Russa recognize it). Ukraine acts VERY closely in cooperation with Russia so Ukraine and Russia seem inseparable, or liberate the Crimea from its heathen government and let the Ukrainians for themselves see the rot that the pro-west has done to them.

Global Economic Crisis is the most hated words because the real crisis was in 1998 no one sees a crisis except for the elites despite hearing constantly on the news that all is because of Global Crisis. Ukraine's growth was much lower, like 3% after its pro-western government in 2004 while the rest of East Europe was more like 6-10%. The pro-western government did nothing except cheer Bush, like Georgia, did naming the capitals air port "George Bush Airport" be on people's Highest priority when all we all want is stability and a good life. This has been denied to the western allies Georgia and Ukraine, Georgia was invaded and the standard of life in Ukraine is deteriorating.

 

[Snorrius]

Any new Ukrainian government will face the same problems as the present-day establishment. In order to promote growth and prosperity, Ukraine needs to get closer to the EU.

Well, they tried this course for the last years but it did not really work as intended - an example of Ukraine and Baltics shows that being or trying to become "closer to EU" is not a solution itself to country problems. EU will not just pay money indefinitely to keep country happy. IMO the faith in reaching Kingdom of God by joining EU is reaching its limits.

 

[Winner]

There is simply no logic whatsoever to your argument winner, its flies in the face of all facts and common sense.

It makes every sense and if you wasn't so blinded by your wishful thinking, you'd see that. Ukraine simply has different interests than Russia and it has a strong desire to remain independent. This will inevitably fuel conflict with Russia NO MATTER who's in charge.

What has fundamentally changed since the 'orange revolution', might I ask?

Ukraine is not unwilling to be a puppet of Russia. Except few Russians living in Eastern Ukraine, ordinary Ukrainians may not love the West, but they definitely don't want to be ruled by Moscow again. And this is what it is all about.

Presumeably you will concede that Yanukovich was pretty pro-Russian last time he was in power, what specifically has changed so that he cannot be anymore?

Last time he was PM, it was under very different circumstances. Kuchma was still the president and the country was thoroughly puppetized by Kremlin. He simply continued in what was the norm at that time.

Today, 5 years after the Orange rev., it is no longer acceptable to be so subservient to Russia. So although the next gov. might be more willing to appease the Russians, it will not willingly accept their overlordship.

And since I already explain that overlordship is what the Russians want, the conclusion is clear - the conflict of interests will continue. Ukraine will participate in the EU eastern partnership and turn to the West for money and investments, while Russia will only threaten it with gas shortages and military bases on its soil.

Face it, your fairy-tale "happy"-ending is not going to happen.

 

[Winner]

Well, they tried this course for the last years but it did not really work as intended - an example of Ukraine and Baltics shows that being or trying to become "closer to EU" is not a solution itself to country problems. EU will not just pay money indefinitely to keep country happy. IMO the faith in reaching Kingdom of God by joining EU is reaching its limits.

5 years is awfully short period of time to make that judgement. The EU is definitely more willing now to support Eastern European countries, hence the new Eastern Partnership project and new funds being prepared to help stabilize these countries.

The Baltics is a success story despite their present economic problems, which are hardly a result of their membership (see Iceland), Central Europe is stable and it proved strong enough to weather the crisis (except the black sheep called Hungary) - so when Ukraine looks west, it sees modernizing and growing economies of the new EU members and rich states of Western Europe. When it looks East, it sees Russia which is trying to subvert it in any way possible - assasination attempts, funding of pro-Russian groups, gas extortion, military threats, economic pressure.

Gee, who will the Ukrainians choose, a hard question

 

[Snorrius]

It makes every sense and if you wasn't so blinded by your wishful thinking, you'd see that. Ukraine simply has different interests than Russia and it has a strong desire to remain independent.

By the way, which interests Ukraine has?

So although the next gov. might be more willing to appease the Russians, it will not willingly accept their overlordship.

Gosh, Winner, "overlordship"! You definitively should think about writing for the La Russophobe.

 

[Winner]

By the way, which interests Ukraine has?

Prosperity, sovereignty, stability, independence, security - the usual stuff... which Russia won't offer to any of its neigbours in a million years

Gosh, Winner, "overlordship"! You definitively should think about writing for the La Russophobe.

Goshy gosh, that's the right word whether you like it or not. Russia seeks to exert control over the neigbouring countries and when they refuse to accept it, they're bullied, threatened, sanctioned or invaded.

You really have a problem, and that problem is your paranoid government.

 

[RedRalph]

Mehh... I have no problem talking about geopolitics and speculating, but this is nothing mroe than wishful thinking. when someone says that a noted pro-Russian president of a country which has a huge Russian-speaking population, dosen't want to join NATO, cant join EU etc etc is bound to have conflict with Russia no matter what happens, and then accuses me of wishful thinking, I suspect its best not to pursue this one. some people hear only what they want to hear.

 

[storealex]

Even though Im tired of Russian bullying I understand them on this one. It used to be Russian, most of the people are still Russian and it's military and historically important.

 

[Masada]

I can't be the only person who has concluded from the demographics of the Ukraine that political quagmire will be the norm. That plays into Moscow's hands. They in all probability won't need to invade - I wouldn't be surprised if Crimea gets booted out to try and gain something approaching political stability. Everyone wins. The Ukrainians gain some measure of certainty in their political system and the Russians gain Crimea back.

 

[otago]

If NATO were so keen to see a bit of Serbia go independent no doubt they will have no problems if the people in the Crimea decide that it would be a good idea for the Crimea to rejoin Russia.
Sauce for the goose ?

 

[Snorrius]

5 years is awfully short period of time to make that judgement. The EU is definitely more willing now to support Eastern European countries, hence the new Eastern Partnership project and new funds being prepared to help stabilize these countries.

Well, that's wonderful, but you do not not completely understand how people's mind work. Since Orange revolution things in Ukraine is going underhill. Personally I am far from blaming the orangeness of current politicians, there are other qualities of theses people which are to blame (craziness and corruptness, for example), but it is hard not to see that things are going from worse to worser.

Becoming part of EU and becoming "a second France" was a faith which have supported pro-EU views in Ukraine but currently it is becoming obvious that a) Ukraine will not be in EU in foreseeable future, b) membership in EU does not guarantees any economical prosperity.

Another problem is that from economical POV Ukraine has little to gain from joining EU. It's economy mostly oriented to Russia, and no one in Europe needs another competitor especially considering depression world have entered. And Ukraine is not small country like baltic states, so it is hard to give it enough money to be happy.

So there is two options:

a) Ukraine is going pro-Russian and stops making suicidal economical decisions, and signs Customs Union with Russia. Then it will be separate political entity but its economy will be in a safe zone.
b) Ukraine's economy collapses to point of no return, country enters social and political chaos, and (possibly) civil war with unclear results, and will be torn to parts between Poland, Romania, Russia and Belarus.

The Baltics is a success story despite their present economic problems, which are hardly a result of their membership (see Iceland),

The problem is that most of supporters for EU-membership see it as a solution to economy problems. Obviously it is not, why Ukrainians need EU if it does not want to pay their bills? As for Baltics, it just does not funny. Success story, huh? Yes, they got five or little more fat years using cheap loans but one can not borrow forever. What they really got because of going to "service-based economy" and listening to foreign advisor is a disaster story.

Their social security and healthcare collapses, unemployment beats its highs, and as soon as people's savings run out quite gloomy future awaits them (Latvia is going first, but two other are following the lead).

Central Europe is stable and it proved strong enough to weather the crisis (except the black sheep called Hungary) - so when Ukraine looks west, it sees modernizing and growing economies of the new EU members and rich states of Western Europe.

Crisis is barely started. Currenly we are passing the first stage when weakest fall. Interesting things will start when Treasuries collapses (or dollar start to inflate rapidly if US government begin to print money for buying out Treasuries).

When it looks East, it sees Russia which is trying to subvert it in any way possible - assasination attempts, funding of pro-Russian groups, gas extortion, military threats, economic pressure.

Assasination attempts are doubtfull and few, funding of pro-Russian groups is acceptable (everyone funds someone - EU and USA fund pro-EU and pro-USA groups in Russia), gas extortion are basicly desire to get paid for goods provided, military threats are mostly alleged, economic pressure is a modern civilized way to resolve conflicts.

At the other side, there are numerous benefits: cheap gas, Russian market, right to work in Russia officially, military protection and so on.

 

[Verbose]

At this point, for Ukranie, I actually think it would be beneficial for them to just make up their mind about which way to jump, regardless of direction, and then work from there.

 

[Tekee]

Well, that's wonderful, but you do not not completely understand how people's mind work. Since Orange revolution things in Ukraine is going underhill. Personally I am far from blaming the orangeness of current politicians, there are other qualities of theses people which are to blame (craziness and corruptness, for example), but it is hard not to see that things are going from worse to worser.

Becoming part of EU and becoming "a second France" was a faith which have supported pro-EU views in Ukraine but currently it is becoming obvious that a) Ukraine will not be in EU in foreseeable future, b) membership in EU does not guarantees any economical prosperity.

Another problem is that from economical POV Ukraine has little to gain from joining EU. It's economy mostly oriented to Russia, and no one in Europe needs another competitor especially considering depression world have entered. And Ukraine is not small country like baltic states, so it is hard to give it enough money to be happy.

Assasination attempts are doubtfull and few, funding of pro-Russian groups is acceptable (everyone funds someone - EU and USA fund pro-EU and pro-USA groups in Russia), gas extortion are basicly desire to get paid for goods provided, military threats are mostly alleged, economic pressure is a modern civilized way to resolve conflicts.

At the other side, there are numerous benefits: cheap gas, Russian market, right to work in Russia officially, military protection and so on.

All the benefists for Ukraine is at Russian camp, west is too distant too alien and would only exploit it. Well even today Bulgaria and Romania are filling the gap of cheap slave labour for EU. During Crisis EU refused to help out Bulgaria/Romania so why would they help Ukraine? Cheap labor is what EU wants and needs and so long as Ukraine kicks out their Orange politicians they will not become slaves in their own land.

The Orange politicians are the most corrupt! That is why after the Orange revolution things went poorly for Ukraine, now people who considered the Orange Revolution to not have changed their life now consider it to have WORSENED their life. The Western-backed revolution is not want Ukrainians need. They need Russia, EU abanonded its Bulgaria and Romania during crisis and east Europe got no help from EU. The point why anyone would support EU is for money, ONLY money. Ukraine, in pragmatism might not care who it joins its brother Russia or greedy West so long as the money and success for life of Ukrainians exists. After the failure of the Orange revolution and the Rose revolution these corrupt "Join NATO EU!!!" politicians are being kicked out of their parliaments after years of selling their nations to the West for no return, maybe to thicken the pockets of Pro-Western Politicians.

 

[Formaldehyde]

Actually, not. According to Winner (see above) Russia will have no incentive to attack Ukraine if the last is not rich and stable .

That just means he is wrong on two counts. The underlying premise in virtually all of his posts about Russia seems to be that they are an inherently evil country hell bent on world domination.

Russia is clearly no longer interested in imperialism and warmongering. They have far too many domestic problems to be looking for more in other countries. Russia couldn't even get Ukraine to pay for the natural gas it uses and sells to the EU until they shut off the supply which forced the EU to assure the past bills were paid.

 

[Tekee]

the reality is that things countries *have* been together for so long that any of this sort of politics that is being played now does not show the real bortherhood we have. Russians think that the rest of the world hates them but the reality is that NO americans know or care about Georgia or Ukraine. Ukraine's orange revolution failed poorly becuase the life of its citizens worsened after its narrow vision of Pro-westernism, at the expense of the countries wealth. The politicans only benefited from the Orange revolution.

The Ukraine might soon finally be free from its pro-westerners and will continue to forge a closer path to Russia, which becuase of the parasitic EU will mean that EU will cry that all freedom has been lost in Ukraine and they are totalitarian, rather then the "Great Democracy" title it has now.