- I think it's a lot more complicated than just CV win rate compared to other win types.
- Equal distribution of victory types only makes sense if there's an equal distribution of civs geared towards each victory.
- I think some DomVs might be hidden behind other victory types just because, as many have noted, actually completing a DomV can be tedious, and other victory types (specifically CV and DiploV) also get easier when you have fewer enemies, so they "accidentally" trigger first; this seems natural and fine.
I'm pretty curious what win types each civ "naturally" aims for, from both a player perspective and from the AI's. If 60% of the current civs just have kits that work for CVs, then it's not really a problem with the win condition, right? So I'd want to answer that question as we continue trying to hammer away at CVs generally. The high variance in CV timers I think strongly speaks to the fact that whether a CV is slow or fast has too much to do with game lineup, and not enough to do with the time it takes to complete each victory type. Also there's been an assumption that there's an equal distribution of civs that cater to all the win types, but I don't think that's been shown to be the case at all. And it gets even harder if you consider civs like Korea, who arguably have kits that could gear towards a choice of wins; does the AI gravitate towards one win type with those civs? Do they win more SVs than CVs, if/when they do win? Can we start classifying civs based on their victory flavors, and compare that to their actual win rates with each victory type? Final random thought, if we ran the AI simulation games with only CVs allowed, I wonder what the numbers would say about civ win rates. Same for SV and DiploV (DomV probably ends up with a lot of Time victories instead, but could still be interesting).
I remember an anecdote of a game where two CV contenders were in the end game, trying to become influential with each other. But the third super-power, a warmonger, started to make headway against the other CV player, and when they fell, the Dom player lost almost by default, because they had no defense against the remaining CV. They literally had no tools to beat two CV players in the end game, because when it gets down to 1:1, if you don't also have huge culture, you don't beat CV. That's a pretty big red-flag in terms of victory type rock-paper-scissors dynamics.
Outside of CVs, I'm still interested in whether DomVs are conspicuously absent just because other win types happen first, even for the Dom player
. CVs and DiploVs get easier once you conquer a chunk of the world, so maybe what might ultimately be DomVs (or TimeVs) end up looking like CVs. I don't think we have stats that can help us understand if that's the case. One way to get some insight there would be to include the number of foreign cities/capitals each civ has at the end of the game, in addition to who won and their scores. That would tell us how close warmongers are getting, rather than the flat stat of "they aren't winning".