Silurian
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Brexit Thread IV - They're laughing with us, not at us
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Manfred Belheim
Moaner Lisa
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Yeah I understand they will get blamed for the outcome of the vote (even if they didn't vote for it), what I don't get is how any of the things listed in that post can be classed as an "outcome of the vote", since they were already a reality* long before the vote.
* inasmuch as they do represent reality of course.
I don't think so. In the end, the EU got mostly what it wanted (with some small compromises) in exchange for a quite short transition period (shorter than the time from the referendum until now) and some flowery promises of a trade agreement. Given the asymmetry in strength of negotiation position, the EU was going to get what it wanted, or there would have been no deal. However, I think the UK could have insisted on much better and firmer assurances in return - at least the beginning of a trade agreement. By wasting time with internal struggles and chasing an imagined pink unicorn Brexit, the UK government missed the chance to get that. This will result in a worse trade deal (whenever it comes to that), because the UK doesn't have much to offer beyond what it already gave away. The Chequers plan was never going to happen, but it would have been much more effective as a starting position had it been created before triggering Article 50.
Of course, it is the best deal that anybody is going to get right now. It is that or hard Brexit, made much harder by the fact that not much time was spent preparing for it. And even in the case of a hard Brexit, this deal will form the basis for any talks if the UK ever want to have a trade agreement with the EU again.
"Theresa May is not a lion leading donkeys. She is just an extremely tired donkey surrounded by reptiles. "
Suzanne Moore, The Guardian.
Suzanne Moore, The Guardian.
Silurian
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None of the things in that post our an outcome of the vote.
Some of the items may actually help by reducing use of the NHS and so tax.
But people will not see that.
Most of the younger generation are just F****..... they know theyh cannot pay the rent in favorable locations, where they work, they have no chance to buy a house, and the shortage of affordable houses keeps the prices up in favor of the older generations that own a house with whatever mortgage left.
In my country there is a deliberate policy of the neoliberals to keep a shortage of housing, public and private, to keep up the significant price increase yoy to the benefit of their voter base, the house owners.
Young people without wealthy parents, with a degree or not, have no chance before they are 30, and only have have a chance when living together at young age and saving up for when they are 30 or so.
If I poke in the opinions of worker class people of 50+ that were lucky enough to have a house with some minimal mortgage left to pay, they shrug their shoulders. The personal benefit is just too big to draw the political conclusions. They shift some money to their children.
Brexit is just another burden that will go at the expense of the have nots.
Forget all the ideological horsehocky. Somehow this nationalistic and populistic horsehocky is distracting from the basics, from the basic left right distribution of money. Don't get trapped into it. Keep your solidarity, your compassion.
This is about money and future. Keep your eyes on the ball.
In my country there is a deliberate policy of the neoliberals to keep a shortage of housing, public and private, to keep up the significant price increase yoy to the benefit of their voter base, the house owners.
Young people without wealthy parents, with a degree or not, have no chance before they are 30, and only have have a chance when living together at young age and saving up for when they are 30 or so.
If I poke in the opinions of worker class people of 50+ that were lucky enough to have a house with some minimal mortgage left to pay, they shrug their shoulders. The personal benefit is just too big to draw the political conclusions. They shift some money to their children.
Brexit is just another burden that will go at the expense of the have nots.
Forget all the ideological horsehocky. Somehow this nationalistic and populistic horsehocky is distracting from the basics, from the basic left right distribution of money. Don't get trapped into it. Keep your solidarity, your compassion.
This is about money and future. Keep your eyes on the ball.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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How can it be in their interest to remain as part of the Little Empire whose whole bureaucracy crated this situation you describe, from the top in the ECB (the banker's agency) to the European Common (we're appointed, why should we care about the plebes?) and to the lobbyist infested (lawful corruption!) European Parliament, and down to the civil service of overpaid technocrats who shower themselves with privileges and immunities in the laws they write and submit for rubber-stamping?
The European Union has not merely brought this about: it has proven that it is invested in keeping things going in this direction, in keeping the crushing weight on debt upon the poor and relatively poor majority for the benefit of the few holders of financial instruments and property. The whole economic policy of the EU, "austerity" written into law and band and bondholder bailouts, is about that: keeping the debt level high, keeping the illusion of power of "markets" over politics (which is effective if people believe it) and nullifying through fear any expression of the democratic will of populations. The market will teach them, they are on the record saying. And using the ECB for that, because "the market", are people, these people. They are in power, they want to remain in power, their only fear of "populists" who might crash their system of exploitation and disempowerment.
Propaganda to make people believe that there is no alternative that the EU is the "hope" of the very victims of the EU, is their weapon. And you are spewing that propaganda here! The interest of the youth is to remain? To keep this as they are? The things that have placed them in the precariat, that have left them in debt bondage, unable to build families, told that if they don't work for the meagrest living wage (or under it) some other will be found or brought it? The EU that has pushed "flexibilization" and "reform" of labor laws? That has ordered "reforms" of social security because it was "unsustainable" even while dumping billions into banks that were already large and have now been made even larger on orders from the Commission and the ECB?
ARE YOU * KIDDING? How can you summarize the plight of people who are being been screwed and then say that more of the same would be for their own interest? What sea of kool-aid have you drunk that blinds you to this contradiction?
The young have been screwed, yes. But not by the older people who still have their "privileges" and whose acquiescence may haves been bough with rising asset prices. Those privileges are no more than any decent modern state can and should provide: housing where necessary, health care, social security, labor laws... often already less. Things that poorer states back in the 1950s-1980s could and did provide, thins that could be provided to everybody now.
They were screwed by the wealthiest capitalist class, those far above these older folks with one or two houses. They were screwed by the politicians who spend decades building layers of bureaucracy to obfuscate what is done in politics, and now take bribes unashamedly and "lawfully". They are screwed by the system in place that enables this. And the only way they are going to improve their lot is by smashing the system. Whatever it takes to do it!
And know one thing: democracy is the last danger that the higher caste of capitalism and their technocrat willing servants still fear. They are doing their best to tweak the system and completely nullify any practical effects of voting in the future.
Crush the system and screw the fear of consequences. If there are shortages, if the government proves incompetent. overthrow the government. Redistribute and seek allies elsewhere if the Little Empire tries to pull an economic war. Change policy altogether. But cease living in fear and dying slowly of a thousand cuts.
I think that Corbyn believes this, but he's being held back by all those others who believe to say it would be "bad strategy". No, to say this, to say that a hard brexit is the only way the people of the UK are going to have options again, to be able to fix the problems they have, is necessary. It should have been said months ago, it still should be said now. Say it, prepare to do it, let the blairites and fearful remainers leave and do their own party if they will, and fight on this platform. Someone must do it.
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FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
Yugoslavia allowed each of its states to print unlimited currency and well everyone was rich and lived happily every after
At this point might as well break the EZ into two factions, the autersity (stable economy) model of the north and the deficit (inflationary) model of the south. Germany can then spend its own euromonies to rebuild its mini-reich and the south can ummm be poor but happy. Problem SOLVED !
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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It has not escaped my attention that whenever someone makes a post that calls for breaking with certain established interests, the FriendlyFire account is used to post some divisive commentary in an attempt to divert discussion into some pointless fight.
The structures that harm the lives of workers in Europe are harming people from Sweden to Italy, it is not an exclusive of the north or the south. Among its causes the Euro is but one of the tools used. The discussion I replied to was about what is going on in the UK and in the Netherlands. Two different countries, neither southern btw.
So to the other reading: please do not fall for the planted idea that this is about Germany versus Greece on debt or Italy versus France on refugees. It may be about the italian government versus the french government, and I myself have sometimes used the name of the country in place of the government sometimes that slips. But the issues with the EU, with the economic and political model being fostered upon Western and Central Europe, affect all the people living in it. People are suffering because of it both in "wealthy" and in "poor" countries. People are being made to feel powerless and cynical regarding politics everywhere.
The governments, acting on behalf of the ruling elites, of certain countries are in the drivers' seat, true. There is no european democracy and there can't be. Even culturally unified federations with a long history turn corrupt and dysfunctional past a certain size, see Brazil (many parties, impossible to govern) or the USA (meet the new master, same as the old one). Accountability and control over representatives does not scale well. In the EU the leaders of the largest and wealthiest countries will get to set the agenda, and those happen to be the leaders who are harder (a matter of scale...) to keep accountable. Add the additional layers of bureaucracy the EU provides them and they can do whatever they please. For whomever pays them the most in perks after their "service to Europe" (see how they retire). The one way out of this trap will be in the national stages, the only place where democracy has worked and stands a change of fully working again.
The structures that harm the lives of workers in Europe are harming people from Sweden to Italy, it is not an exclusive of the north or the south. Among its causes the Euro is but one of the tools used. The discussion I replied to was about what is going on in the UK and in the Netherlands. Two different countries, neither southern btw.
So to the other reading: please do not fall for the planted idea that this is about Germany versus Greece on debt or Italy versus France on refugees. It may be about the italian government versus the french government, and I myself have sometimes used the name of the country in place of the government sometimes that slips. But the issues with the EU, with the economic and political model being fostered upon Western and Central Europe, affect all the people living in it. People are suffering because of it both in "wealthy" and in "poor" countries. People are being made to feel powerless and cynical regarding politics everywhere.
The governments, acting on behalf of the ruling elites, of certain countries are in the drivers' seat, true. There is no european democracy and there can't be. Even culturally unified federations with a long history turn corrupt and dysfunctional past a certain size, see Brazil (many parties, impossible to govern) or the USA (meet the new master, same as the old one). Accountability and control over representatives does not scale well. In the EU the leaders of the largest and wealthiest countries will get to set the agenda, and those happen to be the leaders who are harder (a matter of scale...) to keep accountable. Add the additional layers of bureaucracy the EU provides them and they can do whatever they please. For whomever pays them the most in perks after their "service to Europe" (see how they retire). The one way out of this trap will be in the national stages, the only place where democracy has worked and stands a change of fully working again.
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FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
Well with the dying off of the WW2 generation, and the living memory of those terriable times will pass away there is far less imputus for the EU project orginal goals
And then we will see each country push once again for their own national interest, just like there was with no EU or EZ.
Everyone whom blaming the EU is in for a rude awakening, once the new generation of Germans whom are free from any war guilt take power. I hear that they dont want to spend their euromonies into rebuilding Europe anymore
It not like the problems will just vanish along with the dissaloution of the EU
You want to talk about problems with Accountability ? Look at the poltical [censored] show in Greece where tax fraud is rampant, government is corrupt and filled with cronyism, Is politicans regulary and openly lie and the population still votes for the same people back into power, When dose Greece take responsibility for its own actions ? How come its never the Greeks peoples fault ? Why are Greek politicans selling fantasies for resolving the Greeks economic situtation ?
The EU has barely any power, we gone through this before even the smallest countries openly defy the EU, ignor its rules and do what they please.
The Germans wanted to punish Greeks for cooking their books but was blocked by the French, thats how weak the EU actually is
And then we will see each country push once again for their own national interest, just like there was with no EU or EZ.
Everyone whom blaming the EU is in for a rude awakening, once the new generation of Germans whom are free from any war guilt take power. I hear that they dont want to spend their euromonies into rebuilding Europe anymore
It not like the problems will just vanish along with the dissaloution of the EU
You want to talk about problems with Accountability ? Look at the poltical [censored] show in Greece where tax fraud is rampant, government is corrupt and filled with cronyism, Is politicans regulary and openly lie and the population still votes for the same people back into power, When dose Greece take responsibility for its own actions ? How come its never the Greeks peoples fault ? Why are Greek politicans selling fantasies for resolving the Greeks economic situtation ?
The EU has barely any power, we gone through this before even the smallest countries openly defy the EU, ignor its rules and do what they please.
The Germans wanted to punish Greeks for cooking their books but was blocked by the French, thats how weak the EU actually is
Thorgalaeg
Deity
I think we are finishing an interwar cycle. Rampant stupidity, populism, nationalisms, extremism in both sides of the spectrum, germans not feeling guilty... all that will lead to an increase number of growing conflicts, dissolution of the post ww2 structures like the EU, and a return to 19th and early 20th mechanics, and finally ww3 in 20-30 years. The good news is that the next interwar cycle is going to be damn long.
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innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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And here you are at it again, trying to divert people into a discussion of "Germans versus Greeks". The issue at hand is the structure of the European Union, its bureaucracy and decision making process, and its so-called "democratic deficit". An euphemist if ever there was one.
There can be no democracy where there is no demos. There are british, french, spanish, germans, italians, and so on. And some of these even have their own problems with democracy, regions wanting to declare independence.
@Yeekim : should Estonia have remained part of a reformed USSR because leaving it would be complex, involve establishing relations and treaties with other countries ex nihilo, and necessarily lead to a period of adaptation and economic difficulties?
You accuse me of propaganda. Accusing someone who prefers to discuss opinions with arguments, mostly trying to point out realities, is imo not really productive or helpful.
I think you see the EU as a superpowered instrument for entities that undermine the class struggle in the countries that have joined the EU. As an instrument outside the reach of the democratic power of the peoples of those countries.
I have a very simple focus on the basic needs of the many have nots. Each country having its own specifics in that struggle and a balance. Each counry its own representative democracy, and having by those chosen people influence on the EU policies.
That class struggle starts for me with the basic materialistic needs of education for everyone, enough jobs with high enough bottom wages, affordable housing, protections.
(protections like a NHS, a social security or special jobs for the ones not fitting in a market job, food/safety/environmental/etc)
And even more basic needs like a fair rule of law, no war, public security, a fair voting system go without saying, just like the immaterial rights mostly involving the rights of minorities, equality and respect in tolerance.
It starts for me there. Personally I want more, but that will not gain democratic majorities in the near future. And I will have to row with the oars available.
Those agreed EU policies reflect the power balance, that class struggle, of all those countries, and are basically an average. Nothing wrong with that. Some people will apply higher standards in their own country, some peoples get higher protections and standards than they would choose themselves in their own democratic power balance. The UK being an example with lower standards and protections on those basic needs as for example Germany, France, Italy, and having a much higher risk of losing what's there. Take UK managers of Big Corporate to head up businesses in those three countries, and they will immediately start vomitting once they are brieved on for example the rights of the workers and the unions. Are you aware of that reality ?
With UK as a stand alone, the risk is high that Tory and business driven objectives to improve the competitiveness of the UK by cuts will degrade the current protections. Cost cutting is so much more simple than having governmental policies in place to improve the level of your economy. And the cork of the current UK economy is more and more the financial sector. An already bleak perspective indeed.
And the turmoil of the economical damage from WTO-FTA will be big. The kind of situation where a small group of determined "raw free market" people can catch their big fish, getting rid of all the nonsense of the European wellfare model.
The UK will be like a ship that hit the underwater cliff and is making a lot of water. All hands on the pumps. Panic.
And you start a story on how that ship should have a better design.
Perhaps you should do some reading on autonomism of the 60ies.
On autonome grown grassroot movements going for basic needs being hijacked by political parties, unions and theoretical ideologies. On the struggle between regular people trying to free themselves from the ideological and theoretical banners overwhelmed by distractive details.... and overwhelming the very simple basic needs of those regular people.
Voting Remain in a second referendum is putting a plug in the hole of your hull. Move on from there.
And do realise that whereas the free market Brexiteers believe they can sail to a prosperous future with that hole, you support these people by saying that that hole is good because it frees the UK from "undemocratic" effects of the EU.
It stays a hole.
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innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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I only "accuse" you of falling for it and repeating it here, though you don't even seem to notice the contradictions in what you advocate.
The EU policies are not a manifestation of democratic will, that is my whole point. Institutions shape and constrict perceived possibilities, as you agree. I have already state my position: that the layer of institutions and legislation placed upon the national states of Europe by the EU was designed to do precisely this. It is not the product of any average will of the people, it is a process to shift the will of the people by making people believe that they only have a limited range of options.
The UK managers of big corporate are not all-powerful. Faced with an angry population and forced to operate in a democratic state, without the protections of perceived "TINA" constraining demands from this population, how can they keep their power, let alone increase it? You don't actually believe in democracy, Hrothbern? Are they going to do a military coup or what?
The EU policies are not a manifestation of democratic will, that is my whole point. Institutions shape and constrict perceived possibilities, as you agree. I have already state my position: that the layer of institutions and legislation placed upon the national states of Europe by the EU was designed to do precisely this. It is not the product of any average will of the people, it is a process to shift the will of the people by making people believe that they only have a limited range of options.
The UK managers of big corporate are not all-powerful. Faced with an angry population and forced to operate in a democratic state, without the protections of perceived "TINA" constraining demands from this population, how can they keep their power, let alone increase it? You don't actually believe in democracy, Hrothbern? Are they going to do a military coup or what?
Do I believe in democracy ?
The balance of power in modern western countries is a hybrid.
I believe in a representative democracy with a solid amount of bottom up participation from workers councils, unions, neighborhood communities, macro topic grassroot movements (climate, etc).
And in influence on the convictions of people from conviction based entities, which can be anything from religious, feminism, minorities, etc, etc. Civil society and business should be able to confront all what they see with their realities.
An open information flow to all citizens leading to a good enough transparent composition of the political pod, the representative democracy.
Based on good enough.
My example of typical high level UK managers was to show how big the difference is in workers rights, standards and protection between the UK and most of continental West Europe. That EU average is actively protecting UK workers in a non-polarised way. The protections in place in the UK are mostly from bitter fights between the classes. Not also from inclusive consensus, and easily reversed when the power of balance shifts in the UK.
Offering limited choices is a general principle to fool consumers and voters alike.
Tell people what to eat and they protest. Give them a choice between a handful bad alternatives and they feel better.
So yes... ofc the EU uses that as well, just like any country, just like any marketing team. How many kinds of shampoos are in your retail shop from the same brand ?
Changing the EU, directing it more towards adressing abuse by big corporate, abuse by criminal activities, starts in the political struggle of each country, having EU MP's of that country pushing those agenda points.
If the Tories of Cameron prefer to go to the fringe populist right, the EU cannot change that. IF the Tory EU MP's decide to support Orban in that critical vote on Hungary, the EU cannot change that, but the people of the UK can change their Tory members in the EU, and the people in the UK can vote for more Labour members in the EU parliament.
That Italy is losing a lot of GDP and public government income by allowing a mafia to prosper, and has not enough money for the regular stuff, is something the EU cannot change. That is up to Italy.
Changing a democracy, the objectives and values, is a bottom up process. Going too much for the top of the pyramid and ignoring your base is the real undemocratic move.
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Yeah, blaming "the EU" is as easy as it is stupid when you realize that for anything to happen in the EU, the national governments need to agree to it. Usually it is then the same governments which point to the EU as the source of all problems that they themselves created in the first place.
This is funny- cause you termed his view as you did, and then typed something as laughable. (Eg I am sure Greece decided to close its banks, we all decide stuff).
I dont recall you much, so maybe i should have phrased my reply differently (either with more, or very less, caution).
Anyway, some posters (ussually in this topic) are at best callous, and at worst something not to be mentioned in polite company.
FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
Let me break this down on the Brexit issue
IMMIGRATION:
Brexit: It is the EU freedom of movement that is the cause of so many Pole and Romainians taking our jobs
Real Reason: No it was the UK government deciding it would NOT follow the EU on a 10 year immigration ban. External immigration is under control of the UK
FISHING
Brexit: Its is the EU qoutas that have destroyed our fishing industry
Real Reason: No UK lost the Cod wars, and Sold of it qoutas to France because no one in the UK wants to eat the plentiful shore fish
MANUFACTORING
Brexit: It is the EU regulations that destroyed UK manufactoring
Real Reason: UK manufactoring did it to themselves, and built crap cars, etc
FREE TRADE
Brexit: It is the EU fault that UK cannot sign better trade deals and we are stuck
Real Reason: UK cant negosiate a free trade agreement if its life depended on it
EU REGULATIONS
Brexit: EU regulations are forcing us to actually look after workers, and are burden to business and holding us back
Real reason: UK has to follow EU standards if it wants free trade, EU put in place protections for workers to create an level field and stop expoilation
TAKE BACK CONTROL
Brexit: EU is a tyranny and destorying democrasy
Real reason: EU can do NOTHING to enforce ANYTHING, it is just a scapegoat that is being used to be bashed during elections. You dont like something the EU is doing ? Opt out of that EU treaty or veto it. Bend the EU rules, Openly break the EU rules
What are the EU going to do about it ? Whine and pay lip service.
EUROMONIES
Brexit: We dont want to pay for Greece, Italy and Spain they taking our life blood
Real reason: Germans want to rebuild Europes market thus increasing trade, with increasing trade come more wealth, better standard of living, more stable neighbours, intergrated economy makes war less likely. You want access to EU Euromonies ? Follow EU rules simple you get austerity until you get your economy under control
AGRICULTURE
Brexit: Our industry is dying because of EU protectionsim and regulations
Real reason: Most of the EU argiculture is inefficent and is only alive thanks to subsidies, and protectionism.
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Besides the purely metaphysical question (we have Kyriakos to deal with that) of how to define ‘wrong’, I also have to explain that I was quoting simply quoting precedent. After all, the British bases did provide for the security of the former colony of Cyprus in the 1970s.
It still is our duty to try and avert that.I think we are finishing an interwar cycle. Rampant stupidity, populism, nationalisms, extremism in both sides of the spectrum, germans not feeling guilty... all that will lead to an increase number of growing conflicts, dissolution of the post ww2 structures like the EU, and a return to 19th and early 20th mechanics, and finally ww3 in 20-30 years. The good news is that the next interwar cycle is going to be damn long.
Silurian
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