Brexit Thread IV - They're laughing with us, not at us

Status
Not open for further replies.
"EU can do NOTHING": if that were true why the worry about the UK leaving without an agreement? Because it is not true. Of course the EU can do, and does, many things! Most of them extremely noxious for democracy and for the population of all EU countries. The EU's bureaucracy (The EC, the whole civil service, the ECB, etc) has acquired a lot of power, even if the UK can evade some of that power. It also dictates trade for the "continental system", Napoleon would be envious.

Yeah, blaming "the EU" is as easy as it is stupid when you realize that for anything to happen in the EU, the national governments need to agree to it. Usually it is then the same governments which point to the EU as the source of all problems that they themselves created in the first place.

Have you ever heard about the principal-agent problem? It is a concept that was developed early in the 20th century mostly to explain why corporate administrators did not act on the best interest of the owners who theoretically appoint them and oversee them through a board. Turns out, agents/representatives have a lot of latitude to act before they can be removed, benefit from having more information than those who appoint them, and are hard to dislodge once installed. Governments and political representatives are the same. You know this. Representative democracy is imperfect, a hack. The larger the polity, the more layers of representation, or the more people each agent represents, the less control the voters have over what the agents do. The EU is a layer above governments. The elected european parliament spends more time hearing professional lobbyists that any citizen, indeed granting them official status. There were examples such as CETA where despite widespread popular opposition none of the 28 governments, and only one of the dozens of regions, acted to delay the thing, not even block it. The agents knew this was unpopular, contrary to the will of a majority of the people in several countries. They avoided putting it to any vote, suppressed discussion as much as possible, and passed it anyway. This is no longer democracy, it is imperial politics. Only what happens in the imperial court, among the actors who are in the know, counts.

The national governments are hard enough to keep accountable to voters as is. The EU bureaucracy that actually writes the laws, regulations and treaties is out of democratic control, insulated by not being directly responsible towards citizens, only towards some representatives, often themselves indirectly chosen (prime-ministers are chosen by parliaments, governments chosen by the prime-ministers, and then these appoint the members of the European Commission). This is by design. It is always a matter of degree, how much the agents escape accountability, and the EU's institutional architecture was designed to let them escape as much as possible while maintaining the facade of democracy (the european parliament....).

The EU now has a bad government, one that has shown itself dysfunctional. But governments come and go, this one will be replaced someday. Opportunities to leave the constrains of imperial polities are rarer.
 
If people really want to have a general EU discussion thread, go ahead and start one. We don't need to clog up this one with any subject remotely related to the EU.
 
If people really want to have a general EU discussion thread, go ahead and start one. We don't need to clog up this one with any subject remotely related to the EU.

Sure. But, remind me, where is the UK exiting from anyway, and why?
 
You go and ask 17.4 million people that and when you find out, let me know. I think the Government needs to know too.
 
Well obviously Macedonia is at the right end.:smoke:
The northern end, I see.
The EU now has a bad government, one that has shown itself dysfunctional. But governments come and go, this one will be replaced someday. Opportunities to leave the constrains of imperial polities are rarer.
Northern Ireland should take the chance to rejoin the rest of the brethren south of the border, then.
Sure. But, remind me, where is the UK exiting from anyway, and why?
The Habsburg Empire, if we read your posts from a few months ago.
 
To get back on topic:

So apparently there are 5 ministers in the UK cabinet that demand to renegotiate the deal (that the cabinet approved just days ago). Somehow they think that the one week until the EU summit is enough time to get what they couldn't negotiate in two years. At this point I am unsure whether the disconnect from reality is because they don't know any better or whether it is just all pretending to prevent the political backlash that comes with stating the truth. Part of May's problem right now is that with an actual text on the table, she cannot continue to fantasize about a Brexit deal that is good for the UK. And pointing out the political realities was never looked kindly upon in this whole Brexit mess.
 
"EU can do NOTHING": if that were true why the worry about the UK leaving without an agreement? Because it is not true. Of course the EU can do, and does, many things! Most of them extremely noxious for democracy and for the population of all EU countries. The EU's bureaucracy (The EC, the whole civil service, the ECB, etc) has acquired a lot of power, even if the UK can evade some of that power. It also dictates trade for the "continental system", Napoleon would be envious.

You think the EU can stop the UK from Hard Brexiting ?
No wait your right, the EU has no more power over then UK then a normal country with a free trade agreement has over another country. Or another country trying to influence each other through economics and diplomacy

If you want to be completely free from the influence and control of the ECB, then simply dont trade with them. That way you wont be beholden to them or subject to their influence
In fact dont trade with anyone because they will have the ability to influence you with their power. See Chinese tariffs on US farmers that how much power and control the Chinese have because they engage in trade with the US. Same holds true with the EU and the UK.
 
May's real problem is that the sole thing most people in the UK agree on about what good deal should be is some kind of temporary customs union. Within her own party a large faction also demands that this should carry very few rules attached. That was always impossible and the proposed deal is not bad if they really want the customs union. I wouldn't have gone for that, sure, but if the government didn't they had/have to prepare to deal with border checks.
 
when a lot of the mainstream-economics-driven predictions about Brexit being totally horrible turn out to be false (not that I believe it will be painless or anything, but I tend to agree with inno that it will not be as bad for the UK as is commonly assumed).
"If it's something we don't like we're going to ignore our own models to say it's worse than it is, and believe ourselves."

Drives me nuts. "Truth has a liberal bias" sure, but a liberal bias sure doesn't mean truth.
 
Basically she is annoyed that the likes of the (traditionally unionist and conservative) Ulster Farmers Union and the NI Chamber of commerce are backing the deal

What a surprise that the Party of No would have problems with business attempting to survive.
 
Labour to force amendments that would block a no-deal Brexit
Keir Starmer says he has backing from Tory MPs and ministers to prevent disaster if Theresa May’s deal is voted down

With Labour, the 10 Democratic Unionist party MPs, and upwards of 40 Tory MPs ready to vote down May’s deal, senior Labour figures are aware that they need to avoid the possibility of being blamed for rejecting a Brexit agreement that was on the table and helping to trigger chaos that could lead to “no deal”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...starmer-force-amendments-block-no-deal-brexit

EDIT
perhaps good to add the recent poll info that the Brexit deal of May has around 15-20% support of the UK people, and roughly 50-55% support Remain. => 30% no-deal
The Conservatives seem to lose some votes to UKIP and Labour is growing a bit.
Self preservation of the Tories at stake as well. Between Labour and UKIP.
https://news.sky.com/story/majority...k-second-eu-referendum-sky-data-poll-11555078
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll
 
Last edited:
The northern end, I see.

No. No. not going anywhere Trump has been.:vomit:

Northern Ireland should take the chance to rejoin the rest of the brethren south of the border, then.

I doubt that there is a majority for a border poll for reunification but there could well be in a few years.
The south is now more progress socially than the north and people on both sides of the border are less religious than they were fifty years ago so that is much less of a problem. I think it will be decided by the relative economic growth over the next ten years and how the north is treated by England.


To get back on topic:

So apparently there are 5 ministers in the UK cabinet that demand to renegotiate the deal (that the cabinet approved just days ago). Somehow they think that the one week until the EU summit is enough time to get what they couldn't negotiate in two years. At this point I am unsure whether the disconnect from reality is because they don't know any better or whether it is just all pretending to prevent the political backlash that comes with stating the truth. Part of May's problem right now is that with an actual text on the table, she cannot continue to fantasize about a Brexit deal that is good for the UK. And pointing out the political realities was never looked kindly upon in this whole Brexit mess.

Unless they are completely delusional, which can not be ruled out, they are positioning themselves to avoid the blame for Brexit.
You can see them being interviewed on TV( or some internet TV channel) in a few years time saying "well I kept working towards the Brexit that the people voted for.. blah blah... then resigned when I realised that the Remoners had taken it over... blah blah...".
They are positioning themselves for the post Brexit world.
 
Labour to force amendments that would block a no-deal Brexit

Apparently, lack of realism isn't confined to the Tories. There is nothing the UK can do that makes a no-deal Brexit impossible, apart from agreeing to the deal that is on the table (and even this still needs approval from the EU). No amendment will change that. All this posturing for personal benefit is making a no-deal Brexit much more likely that it should be. Against this backdrop, the May government almost seems competent.
 
Btw, have you guys seen this one: https://spectator.us/david-davis-owen-paterson-washington/ ?

Seems the Brexiteers are back in Washington to continue their betrayal.

David Davis, the former Brexit minister, and Owen Paterson, another pro-Brexit ex-minister, confirmed Friday morning that they’re meeting with Trump administration officials to discuss a US-UK free trade agreement.

[...]

‘While my country has voted to leave the European Union and embrace a more global outlook, there is an existential battle going on in the world,’ Davis said in this morning’s address to the Washington International Trade Association.

‘It is a battle of ideas between competition-led capitalism and state-led capitalism, between competition and cronyism. The tide of prescriptive approaches to economic governance, as exemplified by countries like China, has washed across the shores of Europe. This battle is no less real than the wars that we have fought together before.’

[...]

‘Now we are joined in a mutual struggle,’ Davis said, ‘a struggle to show the world that where competition is weakened or crushed, where government replaces what the private sector can, it is the people who lose out.’

‘The battlefield for this struggle is set,’ said Davis. ‘If the US and UK can agree on a free trade agreement that pulls the UK out of the EU’s regulatory rotational orbit, this will be enormously beneficial to America’s farmers, business and consumers.’

The author of the piece seems to not be the of the most well-informed however:
Theresa May, the stricken British prime minister, refuses to discuss a US-UK FTA until after Britain has withdrawn from the EU in March 2019, and after Britain and the EU have made a new trade deal.
 
It is my impression, and has been for a year or so, that the current american administration is very much bent on using the dollar and the preeminent position of the US in the world's financial system to give a good kicking to both China and the EU. Even if it were not their intention (though it is due to trade issues), the increase of the dollar interest rate while the ECB is politically unable to increase interest on the Euro without collapsing the EU would guarantee that outcome. This is reality catching up with the eurozone idea.
The "emergent markets" getting trounced in the process would be just a side effect, but ironically with South America having turned right-wing this may harm Washington's traditional political allies there.

There really are a lot of possibilities in the air currently, and it may well be that a brexited UK will be better off economically than the wrecks of a broken EU within a couple of years. Going to Washington in search of both political support and an alternative deal makes sense. Macron and Merkel openly talking about their desires and plans for an european army can only have driven policy makers in the US to hasten a collapse of the EU.
 
The death of the EU has been predicted "in a few years" for a lot longer than that.
 
Depending on how you define "likely" and "fall", maybe.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom