Brexit Thread IX - Voters' Remorse

[Arakhor]

Previously on The Brexit Saga:

Is Britain about to leave the EU?
Snap UK General Election
Brexit Thread III - How to instantly polarise your country without even trying
Brexit Thread IV - They're laughing with us, not at us
Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?
Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?
Brexit Thread VII - Revenge of the Brexiteers
Brexit Thread VIII - Taking a penalty kicking

 

[EgonSpengler]

Reuters, 6 May 2021 - "Factbox: Election day: What are Scotland, England, Wales voting for?"

Voters in England, Scotland and Wales head to the polls on Thursday in a series of different elections, with a vote for the Scottish parliament and one for a seat in Westminster in focus for clues to Britain's future political landscape.

Following is a rundown of all the elections which are taking place on Thursday and what they might tell us:

SCOTTISH ELECTIONS

All 129 members of the Scottish parliament will be elected on Thursday under a mixed system which allows voters to first vote for an area or constituency member of the Scottish parliament and then another vote for a political party.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said if the Scottish National Party wins a majority it will give her a mandate to demand a second referendum on independence, after one in 2014 when Scots voted by 55% to 45% to stay in the United Kingdom.

Sturgeon could still call for another referendum if there is a majority of pro-independence parties in the Scottish parliament. The Greens, which back a new referendum, have supported the SNP in government and could provide Sturgeon will the fire-power to argue for another poll.

Opinion polls are predicting very different results, from the SNP failing to win a majority to other showing the party winning a narrow or larger majority.

I think I read somewhere else that Johnson isn't obliged to allow a new referendum in Scotland if Sturgeon did demand one, but don't quote me on that. I'm also not sure what would happen if he refused to allow it.

I wonder also whether the Scottish election has any bearing on N. Ireland - if only as a bellwether on which way the wind is blowing. (Mixed metaphor, but you get the gist.)

Reuters, 5 May 2021 - "British, Irish govts agree to June meeting on Northern Ireland"

British and Irish government ministers are to meet for a formal summit on Northern Ireland in June in the first British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference in two years, a spokesman for the Irish government said on Wednesday.

The decision was made at a meeting on Wednesday between Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney and Britain's minister for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis in Dublin, where they discussed disagreements over Britain's EU exit deal.

 

[AmazonQueen]

One gallant Islander isn't waiting for the Navy.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...-jersey-fishing-row/ar-BB1gpYgc?ocid=msedgdhp

 

[Samson]

Reuters, 6 May 2021 - "Factbox: Election day: What are Scotland, England, Wales voting for?"


I think I read somewhere else that Johnson isn't obliged to allow a new referendum in Scotland if Sturgeon did demand one, but don't quote me on that. I'm also not sure what would happen if he refused to allow it.

I wonder also whether the Scottish election has any bearing on N. Ireland - if only as a bellwether on which way the wind is blowing. (Mixed metaphor, but you get the gist.)

Reuters, 5 May 2021 - "British, Irish govts agree to June meeting on Northern Ireland"

Exactly what it would take to have a legal referendum is not certain, but it is not totally in the hands of the Scottish Parliament. Sturgeon says it would take a court case AGAINST it to stop it.

The Wales election could be interesting, support for devolution has gone up from ~ 10% last time to ~ 40% this time, according to polls.

One gallant Islander isn't waiting for the Navy.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...-jersey-fishing-row/ar-BB1gpYgc?ocid=msedgdhp

I fart in your general direction. Your mother was a hamster, and your father smelt of elderberries.
Ni.

 

[Gorbles]

Going back through the older threads really is some kind of interesting time capsule.

I've got to say, we hear a lot of "aha, Brexit wasn't as bad as somebody said it would be". But we interestingly don't hear about all the dire predictions about the EU (that never came true) due to the UK leaving. That's a funny parallel.

 

[Hrothbern]

Going back through the older threads really is some kind of interesting time capsule.

I've got to say, we hear a lot of "aha, Brexit wasn't as bad as somebody said it would be". But we interestingly don't hear about all the dire predictions about the EU (that never came true) due to the UK leaving. That's a funny parallel.

I think Covid and the US-Biden "New emerging Deal, the US-China effects effects are overshadowing a lot. Both for and in the EU as the UK.
It will take until at least end 2022 before much can be said on Brexit, and even then the global other effects will obscure that.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Going back through the older threads really is some kind of interesting time capsule.
I've got to say, we hear a lot of "aha, Brexit wasn't as bad as somebody said it would be". But we interestingly don't hear about all the dire predictions about the EU (that never came true) due to the UK leaving. That's a funny parallel.

UK and EU more or less decided on a "soft" Brexit
Iam surprised that the UK hasnt been taken a hit over the WTO violations. I think everyone is focused on covid and keeping their economies from plunging into recession

 

[Snowygerry]

A somewhat provocative thread title isn't

"Brexit - what was all the fuss about..." would have been better.

As far I can see most of those that voted Brexit seem quite happy with it - am I wrong there ?

 

[Samson]

A somewhat provocative thread title isn't

"Brexit - what was all the fuss about..." would have been better.

As far I can see most of those that voted Brexit seem quite happy with it - am I wrong there ?

There are quite a few people who voted for it in Northern Ireland that are not happy about it.

 

[Snowygerry]

Yes - NI and a minor fish war with the French.

Both not unexpected, I'm sure both issues were discussed in previous threads ?

 

[Gorbles]

Plenty of people think the current government didn't go far enough (the opposite of what I think, but that demographic exists). Plenty of people who voted against it (still being voters, by definition) may definitely have remorse based on their party affiliation.

Plenty of ways the title applies. Just because you personally don't see it, doesn't mean it isn't there

 

[Snowygerry]

Strange thing is that both fish discussions in the channel and violent trouble in NI were quite common in the previous century, a common item in news reports in the 80s and 90s as I remember it.

Could be then is a return to the "old normal"

Edit, BJ seems to be winning the election comfortably, his voters seem happy...

 

[Gorbles]

If rewinding 40 years gets us to an old normal, I'd argue that rewinding 40 years of progress (for any definition anyone might like, doesn't have to be political or ideological in nature) is a cost in of itself

 

[Arakhor]

A somewhat provocative thread title isn't

Given that the most recent news was the DUP furious with being abandoned over Norn Iron and fisherman absolutely distraught that the Govt has abandoned them too, I thought that the title was topical.

 

[Samson]

If thread naming rights do not give one the right to be a little provocative, what good are they

 

[Snowygerry]

If rewinding 40 years gets us to an old normal, I'd argue that rewinding 40 years of progress (for any definition anyone might like, doesn't have to be political or ideological in nature) is a cost in of itself

Yes it seems Brexit causes few new problems atm. but old problems to resurface -

and there's Scotland ofcourse we'll have to see how that goes in years to come...

 

[Hrothbern]

We have a saying in Dutch that rhymes:
"Het is een feit... spijt komt altijd te laat en nooit op tijd"
(It is a fact... remorse comes always too late and never on time)

And for the record
Whatever news is also seen/reported as Brexit related... it is almost all short term shock effects of mostly details of the trade streams on the society and economy.
It will be the growing knowledge disconnect that will affect UK productivity progress over time (on Labour and capital) for the bulk of economic activities. This will simply decrease the amount of produced products per capita. The degree to which the UK can adapt will depend on how well the state and businesses will adapt by seriously transforming on new ground.

Commodities will be rerouted fast (meaning that companies/customers will reroute separating the UK and EU for those commodity goods).
Medium high end, needing more specialised settings (knowledge and capital goods) and therefore sticky goods, will be rerouted mostly when production lifetimes of those products are expired. Many such goods have lifetimes of 5-7 years.
Higher end and niche will keep on competing more on quality than price and delivery service, but new IP and products will face the gravity effect of more such activities at arms lenght. And the EU has simply more gravity clusters and total gravity.

=> I am unwavering in my long term bad prognosis of Brexit.
(and I never stated in any of my posts otherwise)

 

[Gorbles]

Given that the most recent news was the DUP furious with being abandoned over Norn Iron and fisherman absolutely distraught that the Govt has abandoned them too, I thought that the title was topical.

Oh man, I forgot about the DUP thing. Hah!

 

[EnglishEdward]

It will be the growing knowledge disconnect that will affect UK productivity progress over time

Let me turn this the other way round.

What benefits did the UK gain from a UK European knowledge connect between 1973 and 2021 ?

I suspect that the transfer of knowledge was more on US-UK and Japan-UK connects.

 

[Samson]

Let me turn this the other way round.

What benefits did the UK gain from a YK European knowledge connect between 1973 and 2021 ?

I suspect that the transfer of knowledge was more on US-UK and Japan-UK connects.

From working in science through quite a bit of that time, I think it is massive. There is the direct EU grants to research, but bigger than that is the EU wide "talking shops", that provide the essential inter personal connections that make science work. Without a control group to compare it will never be provable, but from where I am sitting I think we benefited loads, and will miss that benefit.