I get you
I'm trying to go further back, a la Brexiteers when they bang on about the UK people not getting a vote on entering the EU. I'm sure I could find a Monty Python sketch, now I come to think of it. Something about the rights of kings . . .
I'm trying to go further back, a la Brexiteers when they bang on about the UK people not getting a vote on entering the EU. I'm sure I could find a Monty Python sketch, now I come to think of it. Something about the rights of kings . . .
In the EU there are only a handfull of countries really affected by Brexit, the neighboring countries, whereby the relative effect is bigger in the small bordering countries.
The effect of Brexit on global economy, because of that enormous scale size of global, has always been neglectible in forecasts, except for those forecasts where it was assumed that the UK would go 100% cliff edge WTO. But even that scenario had minimal effect.
=> for Brexit you have to compare with Iceland, Ireland, Denmark, Netherlands and Belgium and somewhat with France and Germany.
Interesting enough the BBC does compare the UK with Big Global countries: China, US, India, Nigeria... and weirdly enough also Lebanon who is burdened with a totally other situation of total corruption aggrevated by that explosion.
Obviously the UK is "too Global" to compare with anything less than China, US, etc.
and who cares in that global UK thinking about those Mickey Mouse countries bordering the glorious UK.
They get to rule large tracts of land. You get to know these things when you are a king.
Verbose
Deity
And these countries are also pretty much the list of allies with roughly similar ambitions for the EU that the UK had as a member and leader of this group. Sweden can be added as well.
Generally for these countries there is a realignment within the EU from this – and the more tortured the "Brexit" process might get, the UK might end up screwing up its relationship the most with its former closest allies. A lot of the rest of the EU is just kind of disinterested, since unless they are huge (German, France, some extent Spain, Italy. Poland), they are not really involved. The UK mess can actually mostly be viewed from a safe distance even within the EU.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-uk-and-eu-trade-relationship/
Ferocitus
Deity
How could any Brit not want to give Johnny Foreigner a bloody nose?
Brexit twice as bad a Covid, says OBR
Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”
“In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic”, Hughes told the broadcaster, hours after the OBR responded to Rishi Sunak’s latest budget by saying it expected inflation to reach 4.4% while warning it could hit “the highest rate seen in the UK for three decades”.
“In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic”, Hughes told the broadcaster, hours after the OBR responded to Rishi Sunak’s latest budget by saying it expected inflation to reach 4.4% while warning it could hit “the highest rate seen in the UK for three decades”.
EnglishEdward
Deity
My question is how long is his "long run"; five years, ten years, twenty years?
Smoothing out for 2008/crash, Covid crash etc affects, UK GDP/capita has scarcely changed in 20 years.
And as the rich have increased their share, most people have experienced a decline in living standards.
The small increase in nominal GDP during that time mainly reflects an increasing population through immigration.
If overall population growth runs at 0.4% pa instead of at perhaps 0.8% for ten years, then yes after ten years
GDP may be 4% less than it would otherwise have been, but GDP/capita may remain the same.
And GDP/capita and distribution of that is more about what the voters care.
Work to do for Liz Truss to get some benefit from the special relationship between the UK and the US.
So far the UK steel industry is now at a disadvantage after the US and the EU settled at the G20 their steel dispute.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59113868
You can ofc speculate what the obstacle between the UK and the US was to not settle this also between them at the same moment.
Perhaps something with NI ?
So far the UK steel industry is now at a disadvantage after the US and the EU settled at the G20 their steel dispute.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59113868
You can ofc speculate what the obstacle between the UK and the US was to not settle this also between them at the same moment.
Perhaps something with NI ?
But what should we be doing? Steel production is one of the worse climate sinners (11% of all CO2 emissions), so perhaps it is a good thing we are making less of it? However Chinese steel releases more CO2 per tonne than some others (but better than Poland), so perhaps we should be making more and buying less? I cannot find the numbers for the UK, presumably we do not make enough to get on the charts.
It might be bad for emissions, but it's still something we're massively reliant on. Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy to be wrong, but I think transitioning out of a need for steel is going to take more work than other areas we can look at.
EnglishEdward
Deity
There is a level of detail about which I am ignorant.
Nevertheless I make the following points:
(a) Donald Trump took office over six months after the UK referendum on the EU; so the
UK only ever got involved in this dispute because Remainer Theresa May and MPs dallied.
(b) When the Redcar blast furnaces in England were closed,
the UK more or less stopped being a primary producer of steel
(c) The UK government claims that the dispute re Scottish whisky was suspended
www.gov.uk/government/news/government-reaches-historic-deal-on-us-tariff-dispute
If not, Nicola Sturgeon should use her handbag on Joe Biden.
Nevertheless I make the following points:
(a) Donald Trump took office over six months after the UK referendum on the EU; so the
UK only ever got involved in this dispute because Remainer Theresa May and MPs dallied.
(b) When the Redcar blast furnaces in England were closed,
the UK more or less stopped being a primary producer of steel
(c) The UK government claims that the dispute re Scottish whisky was suspended
www.gov.uk/government/news/government-reaches-historic-deal-on-us-tariff-dispute
If not, Nicola Sturgeon should use her handbag on Joe Biden.
There is Port Talbot:
Port Talbot Steelworks is an integrated steel production plant in Port Talbot, West Glamorgan, Wales, capable of producing nearly 5 million tonnes of steel slab per annum. This makes it the larger of the two major steel plants in the UK and one of the largest in Europe.
Ahh, classic.
EnglishEdward
Deity
Well yes, if they as part of an integrated operation are still starting with working iron ore, they'd remain a primary steel producer.
We shall see how long it takes before any remnant loose ends are tidied up.
The UK only ever got involved in the dispute because it was part of the EU.
And the continentals were quite happy to mess up Scottish whiskey exports as part
of their protest that the USA had elected Donald Trump who they disapproved of.
So the problem did not originate in Brexit, but in joining the EEC/EU.
That is indeed one way of blaming events of 50 years ago for the gross negligence of today.
mitsho
Deity
Do you think Trump would have spared the UK in his tariff wars if their market were already outside the common market? Why do you think Trump would have handled the UK differently?
Would the UK have reacted differently? Maybe, the whole thing really was quite bad timing. But those are all hypotheticals and certainly nothing you can blame on the EU, and yeah, your elected government carried that policy as well...
