Brexit Thread IX - Voters' Remorse

[uppi]

Can you imagine the uproar if someone was talking to the IRA about border control policy.

What would they even talk about? "We are not supposed to say this, but good job introducing border controls. Keep it up!"?

 

[Takhisis]

‘Your terrorists are our freedom fighters’

 

[really]

The IRA would know a bit about smuggling I suppose.

 

[really]

Royaume Uni nul points, so far...

 

[Takhisis]

^That's the only ‘love’ it's going to get, I think.

 

[Hrothbern]

Royaume Uni nul points, so far...

Perhaps the UK should send 4 contenders just like with football

 

[Sofista]

Perhaps the UK should send 4 contenders just like with football

Shush, Hroth! The more they're divided, the better our chances are!

 

[Takhisis]

Did someone really mention the IRA?

Sinn Fein most popular party in both Northern Ireland and Republic, polls show
The left-wing republicans would be the largest party at Stormont and in the Dail if elections were held tomorrow
Jon Stone, policy correspondent

Sinn Fein would be the largest party in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland if fresh elections were held today, polls show.

Spoiler :

The nationalist party has opened up a significant lead over its nearest unionist rivals north of the border, after a sharp collapse in support for the hard-right DUP.

And in the south it has enjoyed a narrow but consistent lead in polling for the next Dail elections since the start of the year, just ahead of Leo Varadkar's Fine Gael, according to a poll of polls.

The party could capitalise on its buoyant support in elections to Stormont scheduled for next year, but would have to wait until early 2025 for the next scheduled general election in the Republic of Ireland.

A new survey for the Belfast Telegraph conducted by pollster LucidTalk shows Sinn Fein with a 9 per cent lead over the DUP.

The unionist party’s support has halved since the general election 17 months ago with a historic low of 16 per cent. Its slide comes amid a backdrop of loyalist discontent over Brexit, and the replacement of its leader Arlene Foster with Edwin Poots.

The survey found that the DUP’s support has fragmented between the even more hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), the more moderate Ulster Unionist Party, and the non-sectarian Alliance Party.

The Alliance is itself on 16 per cent in joint second place, trailing Sinn Fein on 25 per cent.

In the Republic, a polling average calculated by the website Politico Europe has Sinn Fein averaging 29 per cent of the vote, ahead of Fine Gael on 26 per cent and Fianna Fail on 15 per cent.

The Republic’s government is currently a coalition between Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Green Party.

At Stormont, securing a place as the largest party would guarantee Sinn Fein the office of first minister under the power sharing settlement. The deputy first minister would automatically be drawn from the unionist community.

Parties in the Republic have been reticent to form coalitions with Sinn Fein because of the organisation’s historic links to the IRA – with then prime minister Mr Varadkar saying it was “not a normal party”.

But the leadership of his rivals in Fianna Fail was reported to have softened on the idea of working with the left-wing republicans, although such a pact did not materialise after the last elections.

In the Republic Sinn Fein has grown its support in recent years by focusing on economic and social issues such as housing.

A LucidTalk poll commissioned by BBC Northern Ireland’s Spotlight programme last month found only a narrow majority of people in Northern Ireland now oppose a united Ireland.

The poll found that 49 per cent of the North’s residents favour remaining a part of the UK while 43 per cent supported leaving. The same survey found that in the Republic, 51 per cent favour a united Ireland with 27 per cent supporting a continuation of the status quo.

To build on some of the comments there, I have to add that if Johnson wants to model himself on Churchill he's doing fine: after all, Churchill did do his best to alienate India with the famine in Bengal in '43.

 

[really]

As Secretary of State for the Colonies he was responsible for the creation of the Black and Tans and Auxiliaries - he's not a popular man here.

It also tells you why we won't be joining the UK on their adventure any time soon - while in the UK we were administered by the colonial department.

Anyways, Sinn Fein still aren't a normal party. Don't like them.

 

[Takhisis]

I know and I don't like them much either, but it is a telling sign that all over the world people are looking for third options. Bland liberaloids who are on nearly a flower-power approach of ‘of course people will suddenly come to their senses and realise we are right about everything’ and neoconservative reactionaries who straight up try to bring the world back to 1895 aren't a binary choice anymore. And a lot of people are voting for just anyone whom they perceive as able to just stomp on the playing board altogether, regardless of the ultimate consequences of that, which is flat-out dangerous.

(And, really, how much difference is there between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, ultimately?)

 

[Takhisis]

But if you want to go on about Brexit and colonies…

‘Irresponsible’ Australia trade deal will bring ruin for UK farmers, critics warn
Scottish National party says tariff-free imports of hormone-treated beef ‘would represent a bitter betrayal of rural communities’

The UK government was facing a backlash on Saturday over its plans for a trade deal with Australia, which have led to anger from farmers and environmentalists and calls for the Scottish secretary to resign.

Spoiler :

Farming unions said that proposals for a zero-tariff and zero-quota trade deal would drive farmers out of business, while green groups said allowing Australian hormone-treated beef would breach the Conservatives’ manifesto commitments.

The Scottish National party added to the clamour for a rethink by calling on Alister Jack, the secretary of state for Scotland, to “fight back or resign” if he failed to stand up for farmers.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader in Westminster, wrote to Jack, saying the deal would “place a time limit on the future of farming livelihoods across these islands”, and would also disproportionately affect Scottish farmers and crofters.

“Such a trade deal would represent a bitter betrayal of rural communities, undermining and undercutting our agricultural sector and would amount to a genuine threat to future viability,” Blackford wrote. If Jack’s views are ignored by the cabinet, Blackford wrote, then “your only credible option is to make clear that this is a resigning matter”.

Opponents of Scottish independence fear that the row over farming may fuel support for a new referendum in rural areas where there has previously been pro-union support.

Farming leaders were taken by surprise by news that Liz Truss, the trade secretary, would offer her counterpart in Canberra a deal with a 15-year transition period leading to unfettered free trade, without protections that farmers had asked for.

Ministers are aiming to have the deal signed before the G7 summit in Cornwall on 11 June.

Minette Batters, the National Farmers’ Union president, said it was “incredibly disappointing” that the government had not told farmers about the “wholly irresponsible” proposals, and that it should provide details urgently.

“It is also incredibly concerning that the government is in a ‘sprint’ to sign up to a trade deal with Australia that would have serious implications for British farming and would seemingly offer very little benefit to the economy,” she said.

The Department for International Trade (DIT) estimates that UK GDP will grow by 0.025% over the next 15 years as a result of a deal.

Batters added: “The prime minister and his government have pledged to level up the country. Agreeing to a tariff-free trade deal with a major agricultural exporter, with no safeguards or review mechanisms, would do exactly the opposite of that commitment and set swaths of rural Britain backwards.”

Truss held talks with Dan Tehan, Australia’s minister for trade, and is thought to have outlined the UK proposal to him. She won the prime minister’s support during a cabinet meeting on Thursday after apparently outmanoeuvring the environment secretary George Eustice and Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove.

Last year, environmental groups and farmers spent months lobbying ministers and emphasising that trade deals should not compromise food standards or animal welfare. In November, Eustice and Truss made a joint pledge not to allow imports of hormone-treated beef or chlorinated chicken as part of any trade deal.

Australian farmers are allowed to use hormones to make cattle grow bigger, and as a result their meat is subject to an import ban by the EU.

Tanya Steele, the chief executive of WWF, warned the government not to forget its obligations on climate ahead of the Cop26 summit later this year.

“Rushing to align ourselves with the laggards on climate and nature – without guarantees to uphold core standards – invites lower standards of production on to our shelves, and risks exporting our environmental footprint rather than reducing it,” she said.

Supporters of the trade proposal, such as the Conservative peer Daniel Hannan, have raised the prospect that farmers will receive subsidies for maintaining the countryside. Not all farmers are enthusiastic about the idea of changing their role from food producers to park wardens.

Tim Bonner, the chief executive of the Countryside Alliance, said that the government expected farmers to manage the countryside and tackle the climate crisis, but farms needed to be profitable to do this.

“If trade deals increase competition and therefore reduce commodity prices over time, then farmers will require additional support and compensation to deliver the public goods which are critical to meeting government targets,” he said.

A DIT spokesperson said: “We keep farmers and senior figures from across industry closely involved throughout all trade negotiations.

“The trade secretary talked with the NFU this week, and ministers also met with farming representative organisations, including NFU Scotland, to discuss the Australia FTA.

“An Australia deal would open up export opportunities for our farmers and include protections for the agriculture industry, while also ensuring farmers are not undercut and the high standards we have in place are not compromised.”

tl;dr apparently being in the EU and associated trade zones means ‘our people’ are hurt by those deals, so leaving is good… and meant to do other deals by which ‘our people’ will be hurt.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Cheaper Australian beef and other agricultural imports for the consumers
Then will come the destruction of small farms and agricultural production
Making way for large corporate take overs.

welcome to the brexit that you voted for.

 

[Samson]

It seems to me that there are bigger conversations we need to have with regards beef and lamb than exactly how much tax we stick on them when they are shipped around the world.

 

[Takhisis]

Is the part about charging so little in tax that spending a crapton of fuel in shipping them over from the land down under instead of right across the Channel from France acceptably bigger enough?

 

[Mega Tsunami]

Cheaper Australian beef and other agricultural imports for the consumers
Then will come the destruction of small farms and agricultural production
Making way for large corporate take overs.

welcome to the brexit that you voted for.

What about the free trade deal we have with the EU? Does that not count?

As Liz Truss said yesterday “Currently the EU have tariff-free, quota-free access to the UK and they are a much bigger beef producer than Australia so we already import over 200,000 tonnes of beef from the EU.”

Competition will always be good. Maybe the EU will reduce their prices and so we, the consumer, will benefit.

 

[Samson]

Is the part about charging so little in tax that spending a crapton of fuel in shipping them over from the land down under instead of right across the Channel from France acceptably bigger enough?

Well, my point was the climate impact of the methane produced by their belches, but the impact of shipping so far cannot be discounted either.

 

[really]

There are other trade offs too. Seasonality vs storage.

 

[Hrothbern]

Well, my point was the climate impact of the methane produced by their belches, but the impact of shipping so far cannot be discounted either.

That was in my mind as well

Human farts are on average roughly one litre per day.
Cows are on average more than 200 litres methane per day.
And that with more than a billion cows.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/the-strange-war-against-cow-farts
The world is home to about 1.5 billion cows, most of them bred and raised for the meat and dairy industry. Each of them has a quadripartite stomach, whose largest section is called rumen. An adult cow’s rumen can hold about 150 to 200 litres, and is populated by a staggering collection of microorganisms (25 billion bacteria per gram of volume), tasked with breaking down vegetal fibres through fermentation. A byproduct of rumen fermentation is hydrogen; a specific bunch of rumen-dwelling microbes, called methanogens, convert that hydrogen into methane. Methane is subsequently expelled through the cow’s front end – through burping – or through the cow’s backdoor – via farting. A cow burps and farts between 160 to 320 litres of methane per day. That is bad news for the environment.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Well, my point was the climate impact of the methane produced by their belches, but the impact of shipping so far cannot be discounted either.

Cows are on average more than 200 litres methane per day.

I am waiting for the graph showing that Australian cows and
sheep belch and fart more than French cows and sheep do.

 

[Samson]

I am waiting for the graph showing that Australian cows and
sheep belch and fart more than French cows and sheep do.

You know that is not totally impossible. Antibiotics are used more routinely in the US, and they are associated with higher methane production, possibly by favouring archaea over bacteria in the microbiome. The geographical differences do not seem to have been studied.