Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Hrothbern]

I see now that the tariff list is already public.
That tariff list is set for the coming 12 months.

87% of the tariffs is set on zero. Goal is to minimise cost increases to consumers (and industry needing B2B imports).
Some tariffs regarding food are lowered to 50-60% of the EU WTO tariff list. A mix between farmers interests and consumers interests.
The Confederation of British Industry is not happy because it exposes domestic economy from global cheap imports.

Responding to the announcement, Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the Confederation of British Industry, described the prospect of no deal as a “sledgehammer for the economy”.
“This tells us everything that is wrong with a no-deal scenario. What we are hearing is the biggest change in terms of trade this country has faced since the mid-19th century being imposed on this country with no consultation with business, no time to prepare,” she told the BBC’s Today programme.
“This is no way to run a country. What we potentially are going to see is this imposition of new terms of trade at the same time as business is blocked out of its closest trading partner. This is a sledgehammer for our economy.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...imports-cut-to-zero-in-temporary-no-deal-plan

For the Irish border this temporary list sets all tariffs on products from Ireland at zero %. This means no UK border controls are necessary during these 12 months.
But it means also that custom checks will be made between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, bringing the border in the Irish Sea.

In relation to Northern Ireland, the government said its reason for waiving the regime in the region was to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. It added that if Britain crashed out of the EU without a deal, the government will “enter discussions urgently with the EU and Ireland” over longer term border arrangements.

The no-checks approach, which has been dubbed an “honesty-box system” in Northern Ireland, would be a “strictly temporary, unilateral approach it would take to avoid a hard border if the UK were to leave the EU without a deal”.

A “small number” of checks would apply on the border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. However, the government insisted that this would not entail any controls down the Irish Sea.

Ireland a new smugglers paradise ?

 

[FriendlyFire]

The no-deal tariff list of the UK will be made public before the vote today on no-deal.
We will know soon.
I guess lots of zero tariffs.

I dont think the UK has prepared UK arigicultiural industry to transfer from EU protectionist economy to a open free trade economy
Though it will probably be the least worst option

 

[Arakhor]

And much responsibiliy lies with those UK politicians who have not only campaigned against the 2016 democratic referendum decision, but have repeatedly slunk off to the continent to urge the EU negotiators to be as unreasonable as possible in the hope that that will thwart the UK's exit from the EU.

So, no blame whatsoever for the ludicrous expectations raised by Leave politicians, the lack of negotiation by Brexit secretaries and the PM's ridiculous attempts to keep Parliament out of the process for months and years on end? Everything wrong with Brexit is Remain politicians, right?

 

[Hrothbern]

I dont think the UK has prepared UK arigicultiural industry to transfer from EU protectionist economy to open free trade economy
Though it will probably be the least worst option

yes
There is not much choice there I think.

On that EU protection of agricultural
I see that as an UBI for farmers
Before the big global trade, from the very start of the EU, the buying power of corporate was bigger than the selling power of the individual farmers, driving them down to bare existence levels.
This also affected the original strategic EU goal to be self supporting in food, because yield and volume improvements were needed (needing many capital investments).
When in the decades thereafter the demand on better food and animal standards increased, increasing cost of production, the EU did increase those standards by regulations on farmers, and could do so because of that UBI.
With the coming Green New Deal Wave, adding sustainability of top soil, bio organic etc on top, this farmer UBI will become even more important.

Nationalising agriculture, and converting by buy out programs farmers into civil servants would not work I guess because of the deplorable working standards farmers have (overtime premiums etc, etc in civil servant culture too expensive).

So it will stick as UBI I guess, with a big overhaul to get it more effective also towards a green agricultural economy.
The customer getting high food, animal and Climate standards.
Foreign exporters getting non-tariff trade barriers.

The technical challenge for the EU to be so good in agricultural innovation that it can (almost) match the cost price of foreign agriculture at much higher standards.
The amount of R&D, both the R as the D is high in the EU since the 50ies.
Crop cultivation improvements (not GM), soil improvements (not only chemical fertilisers), controled growing environments (new generation greenhouses with low water and topsoil footprint). The potential still untapped there is relatively high.
4 liter total water consumption per kilo tomatoes grown is for example achievable in mass production.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I see now that the tariff list is already public.

Thank you.

For the Irish border this temporary list sets all tariffs on products from Ireland at zero %. This means no UK border controls are necessary during these 12 months.
But it means also that custom checks will be made between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, bringing the border in the Irish Sea.

This is as I expected. Having customs officials check goods internally is a sovereign decision,
but signing a treaty with other countries that requires one's country to do that violates sovereign integrity.

Ireland a new smugglers paradise ?

As before.

 

[EnglishEdward]

So, no blame whatsoever for the ludicrous expectations raised by Leave politicians, the lack of negotiation by Brexit secretaries and the PM's ridiculous attempts to keep Parliament out of the process for months and years on end? Everything wrong with Brexit is Remain politicians, right?

The only expectation most of us who voted Leave had was that the UK would Leave the EU.

If you think we voted Leave, on the basis of believing each and every gung ho utterance
by the more colourful, (and therefore reported on by the media), political characters such
as "sunlit uplands", a trade deal with the EC would be "easy-peasy", "they need us
more than we need them", "£350 m/week for NHS"; Britain would be "great" with free
trade again, you are greatly mistaken. And some such as Empire2 were Remainer inventions.

Still having bought into Project Fear and Smear, I can understand why
Remainers assume Leavers are equally gullible.

 

[Hrothbern]

As before.

the like for this comment !

Was that really so in the past ?

We had always a lot of butter smuggling with Belgium going on. And much more.
The BeNeLux was a very pragmatical decision as well.

 

[Arakhor]

The only expectation most of us who voted Leave had was that the UK would Leave the EU.

And yet, when provided with a deal that would enable us to leave the EU, you and other Leavers rage about how it's not a deal and that it's a humiliation, yadda yadda. Seems like you really did believe then, even as you do now.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I tried to read that deal. It was awful. Tedously legalistic Endless references to EU documents. No way was it Theresa May's deal.

The way I see it; she was just fronting for the EU. Theresa May and Martin Barnier being like a Laurel and Hardy or an Abbott and Costello act.

And why should I ignore the Attorney General's damming assessment.

 

[FriendlyFire]

This is as I expected. Having customs officials check goods internally is a sovereign decision,
but signing a treaty with other countries that requires one's country to do that violates sovereign integrity.

When/If Ireland decides to TAKE BACK CONTROL ?
Is that ok with you ?

 

[Arakhor]

I tried to read that deal. It was awful. Tedously legalistic Endless references to EU documents. No way was it Theresa May's deal.

This may come as a surprise to you, Edward, but legal documents are generally "tediously legalistic". What's more, if you really expect us to believe that you believe that Theresa May was a fifth column for the evil EU, then no, I do not believe you are only as gullible as the average Remain voter.

 

[Kyriakos]

I do not believe you are only as gullible as the average Remain voter.

Parapraxis?

May is stuborn. Then again she wouldnt be allowed to go for a norway-type deal, so its not like she could do much else. Why is she against a full hard brexit?

 

[Arakhor]

Given that she is (still) Prime Minister, I have no doubt that she of all people is aware of that would mean for the country, despite her clear antipathy for foreigners and all that they entail.

In related news, the DUP MP Nigel Dodds is now calling for a special Northern Irish arrangement to save them from zero tariffs imports from Ireland and (presumably) custom checks somewhere within the Irish Sea. I do wonder what the people of Northern Ireland think about their (almost) criminally useless representatives currently wasting space in Westminster.

 

[Silurian]

I tried to read that deal. It was awful. Tedously legalistic Endless references to EU documents. No way was it Theresa May's deal.

What documents do you think the Treaty will refer too. The EU has been making regulations on our behalf for forty years, we do not have our regulations covering many areas. Making our own regulations was one of the arguments for Brexit and people should not be surprised that many of the regulations are in fact EU documents.

The EU has regulations on the transport and storage of medical isotopes ( I assume). It is far easier to use the existing regulations for the next few years rather than consult about our own draft regulations, have separate negotiations about any changes we wish to make and then produce our own regulations about the transport and storage of EU supplied medical isotopes.

I do not know how many pages all those documents added up to but if someone said a million pages I would not be surprised. How would we have managed to consult and agree changes, if we wished, amongst ourselves let alone with the EU over the past two years.

 

[Hrothbern]

Given that she is (still) Prime Minister, I have no doubt that she of all people is aware of that would mean for the country, despite her clear antipathy for foreigners and all that they entail.

In related news, the DUP MP Nigel Dodds is now calling for a special Northern Irish arrangement to save them from zero tariffs imports from Ireland and (presumably) custom checks somewhere within the Irish Sea. I do wonder what the people of Northern Ireland think about their (almost) criminally useless representatives currently wasting space in Westminster.

yeah
I guess Nigel Dodds is aware of the Bible book 2 Samuel 11: 14-17, spelling out the age-old recipe how you get rid of someone that is annoying you, and not doing as told.

14 And it came to pass in the morning, that David wrote a letter to Joab, and sent it by the hand of Uriah [the Hittite].
15 And he wrote in the letter, saying, Set ye Uriah in the forefront of the hottest battle, and retire ye from him, that he may be smitten, and die
16 And it came to pass, when Joab observed the city, that he assigned Uriah unto a place where he knew that valiant men were.
17 And the men of the city went out, and fought with Joab: and there fell some of the people of the servants of David; and Uriah the Hittite died also.

 

[Akka]

I don't put the blame entirely on the EU, nor on its member states who (with the possible exception of RoI seeking unification), have very obediently kept out of it.
And much responsibiliy lies with those UK politicians who have not only campaigned against the 2016 democratic referendum decision, but have repeatedly
slunk off to the continent to urge the EU negotiators to be as unreasonable as possible in the hope that that will thwart the UK's exit from the EU.

Same question that inno failed to answer : what were the "unreasonable" requirements of the EU that weren't simply inherent to "well, you're not in the EU anymore so you can't benefit from being in the EU" (which is normally, you know, the entire point) ?

I'm still waiting.

 

[Hrothbern]

The UK represented by May wants more benefits from the EU than Japan or Canada or etc
Why ?
"Because we helped building up the EU... we liberalised it, we pressed for the East-European countries to join... we are entitled to privileges that Canada, Japan, etc do not have"

 

[AmazonQueen]

Would you care to provide some concrete examples?

In my opinion the most significant change in social rights in the last 40 years in the UK is gay marriage; nothing to do with the EEC/EC/EU.

Changes such as: (a) Freedom of Information Acts (b) minimum wage (c) updating of 1972 equal pay act to include equal pay for work of equal value,
(d) anti-stalking law (e) requiring employers to show compliance about racial discrimination and (f) ban on upskirting photos/videos are purely UK initiatives.

And many of its initiatives such as Data Protection, GPRS; and Working Time directives have merely added to costs without providing benefits.

Heres a few https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/ten-rulings-european-court-justice-affected-everyday-life/

Equal pay for work of equal value was the result of an ECJ judgement and I wouldn't agree that Working Time Directives etc haven't had benefits.

 

[innonimatu]

This is an incredibly long rant to actually not answer the question I asked : "What were such "obviously unacceptable conditions" save the UK not having the benefit of being in the EU once it left it ?".

I'm was attempting to explain to you that while your question might make sense directed at the likes of May, it does not make sense directed at the many people who all along defended an exit without any "exit agreement" as the default choice. If the process is about doing a new deal with the EU it only makes sense to sign a treaty when both parties are convinced they«'ll benefit, which was obviously not the case given the preconditions didn't overlap.

Venezula has the words oil largest oil reseves and was the richest of all the countries in South America, it is weird to think that this would be a good example to bring up and wave in the face of the Hard brexiteers

The examples were about the supposed threat of hunger (stockpiling of food, yous said) or whatever in the absence of a trade deal. It's scaremongering, which becomes obvious when you compare the UK to countries in much, much worse situations.

There has been enough scaremongering already. No people should enter into long-term treaties based on scaremongering. And this Withdrawal Agreement was as long-term as they came, with the famous "backstop". That and that alone sunk it.

Ironic, isn't it, that something the EU diplomats involved allege is temporary but necessary to prevent problems with Ireland is actually what will stop a temporary agreement to prevent problems with Ireland from being done! And if they hadn't made the "backstop" permanent then this temporary agreement would already be approved and its alleged purpose would be actually served.

The truth is, of course, that the allegation is false and Ireland is but a tool.

 

[Arakhor]

You know, grandly saying "the truth is" rather than "I believe" doesn't actually make your allegation true.