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Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by uppi, Dec 12, 2018.

  1. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Now if only the terms of our withdrawal had been clearly stated on the referendum question, then perhaps you could call anything but a hard Brexit dishonest. As it is, you'll just have to rage impotently at the Government like the rest of us.
     
  2. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    The wording of Article 50 is pretty clear to me.
     
  3. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Well, of course. That's the nature of eisegesis.
     
  4. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    Well remainers seem quite brilliant in applying:

    Eisegesis (/ˌaɪsɪˈdʒiːsɪs/) is the process of interpreting a text or portion of text in such a way that the process introduces one's own presuppositions, agendas, or biases into and onto the text.

    in that they seem to have found paying £39 bllion and not actually leaving at all, in the few sentences of Article 50.
     
  5. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    I’m sure that you’re aware of the difference between what exists in law and what has been negotiated (or not, as the case may be). I’m also not the one who keeps insisting that anything other than a no-deal Brexit is not “really” leaving and I would imagine that a great many Remainers would also disagree.
     
  6. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    I have yet to read a good article on the CPTPP, although it got a lot of shallow newsmedia coverage.
    It is for the UK the choice between a set of bilaterals and this trading block. And being part of such a diverse trading block (with less societal standards agreed to) will for sure have advantages because of negotiating power. Also a fair cultural geopolitical fit.
    India is however not in the CPTPP (like S.Korea, Indonesia, Thailand who aim perhaps to join).
    India not because it wants to protect its own market against cheap goods (needing that protection to scale up and develop those related industries) and probably feeling enough power from its size when further developed to stand alone as super-country. Over time my guess is that India will behave like a super-country... meaning not great as big trading partner for smaller countries in a bilateral.
    I think it does strategically matter a lot for the UK where fits are in its economy, and from there where the main bonds are to be made.
    Together with what is needed from the US... how to keep China in check.... major strategic considerations impacting future decades for the UK.
    Choices that also very much depend on the overall political signature of the UK over the future years and who is in charge in the first years and decade after Brexit.
    EDIT
    oh...
    The UK has a huge and persistent trade deficit and on the back of that a huge and persistent Current Account deficit. And Brexiteers bellieve that to be solved when doing trade with others.
    For the people believing that the UK export is doing well, is growing, to other countries than the EU, has a positive net trade balance with other countries. For the people pointing out that the UK should stop importing so much from the EU because the net trade balance is becoming bigger. => "the future is for trade outside the EU".
    When the UK exports cars to other countries with much of the components imported from the EU... the normal high level trade overviews (like in the newsmedia) do only show that gross effect used bty Brexiteers. If you deduct the imported car components value from both the UK imports and exports, the pictures changes greatly. The same happens with many other exports of the UK to other countries !!!
    But yeah... in principle you would expect the UK Treasury to make true trade overviews based on the UK GVA (Gross Value Added), but that's a lot of work. Leaving room for the Leavers to have their fantasies on that argument. Overviews taking the changed GBP rate into account for the future even more out of reach for the Treasury. Not even a decent overview showing how little the UK export improved from the downfall of the GBP from around $1.45 to $1.28, which is especially hurting export goods needing lots of EU imports, does exist publicly AFAIK.
    The truth is that the right wing Brexiteers do not care anyway because they intend to slash the social benefit cost and real wages to make the UK competitive for other countries. To hell with the many as long as they benefit.


    Political haste for deals above WTO's, driven by tabloids and political career fantasies will be a very bad advisor indeed !!!

    You can only import the stuff that you need from countries, when you have something attractive enough for those other countries to buy from you.

    The groundwork is:
    A. crunching the lists of goods and (attached) financial services where the UK has a comparative advantage, and seeking the fits where these exports are indeed attractive for other countries. (short, medium, long term).
    B. Use that market analysis of those other countries to develop a transformation strategy of your domestic economy, to have your capacities for attractive exports developed.
    C. Analyse your imports into essential imports, cost-saving imports and imports you could also very well produce yourself.
    D. Filter out the crony advices from companies from the usefull advices
    E. Make a budget of the governmental and private investments needed over time.
    F. Have a stiff drink.

    That non-political list could be very sobering for politicians.

    And there (still) should be enough high quality people in the UK to do the groundwork in a decent fashion. Though I doubt that the over-politicised character of governing by Westminster as of now is able to manage that input into poltical solid and reliable decisions for the wellbeing of the UK economy and people. Yes-nodders are the last people you want to be involved (and BTW also the last people to remain in function with an erratic management).

    One of the first things I would set up separately and immediately is a task group to greatly increase domestic food production. (also when the UK would not (really) leave the EU).
    I saw a recent article that farmland prices in the UK were expected to go down with 20% over the coming years because it is such a lossmaking activity that EU subsidies are 60% of the personal income of farmers. The total EU subsidy for the UK around GBP 3.0 Billion.
    But hey... who in the UK would care about farmers. The Tories not because after all they are peasants that should know their place. Labour not because farmers vote anyway never for Labour.
    When I read that article I was not surprised by that low income of farmers and that subsidy, but by the current low farmland prices in the UK of "only" GBP 20,000 a hectare. Here in NL that is Euro 60,000 a hectare, forcing the farmers to high productivity (just like higher minimum wages force companies to higher productivity by more invests in physical assets and human knowledge... and from there longer term employee relations). But one of the reasons is also that part of the "farmland" is actually former farmland now in use as "greenhouse" land that sells for over Euro 200,000 a hectare.
    Farming for bulk crops is straightforward mass effeciency, but vegetables etc (lots of those imports) are meanwhile either bio or high-tech greenhouse: both crop cultivation knowledge as "farming" technology level. With so many universities in the UK, it must be possible to have, to transform, at least one as champion of agricultural knowledge (combined with food health and green like carbon footprint and green top soil improvement). What Gove is doing is not solving the "green" issue, but sprinkle topdown conditions without offering solutions developed as flanking R&D activity by the government. The typical behaviour of a CFO destroying the company, when not kept in check by a CEO that is focussed on the product and marketing.
    That those farmland prices are going down is so similar to how the whole of manufacturing went down in the UK. Too lazy to envision and do the homework to believe in a future and the business responding by squeezing the remains.

    Here a nice article of National Geographic on that future:
    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/09/holland-agriculture-sustainable-farming/
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  7. brennan

    brennan Argumentative Brit

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    You mean acting responsibly and not letting withdrawal catastrophically damage the economy, which every sensible person knows would be the result of total withdrawal.

    In today: Article 50 likely to be extended even if May wins her vote (which nobody believes she will):

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...arliament-commons-eu-withdrawal-a8723281.html

    "A majority of voters believe the final say on Britain’s impending exit from the EU should be determined by the public, according to the biggest Brexit poll held since the 2016 referendum.":

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-referendum-eu-mays-brexit-deal-a8713651.html

    Top Brexit donors predict Britain will stay in EU:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ns-parliament-second-referendum-a8722706.html

    Screw Brexit.

    Edit: Oh yeah and the manufacturing sector fell for the fifth month in a row.
     
  8. uppi

    uppi Chieftain

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    If this is you argument, then it follows that the people voted for May's deal.

    "Likely"? I don't think so. The EU will want to have quite some concessions in exchange for delaying Brexit. The UK politicians just talk about extensions, because that would be the only exit out of the corner they have backed themselves into. Unfortunately, the EU likes the UK being in that corner.
     
  9. brennan

    brennan Argumentative Brit

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    They've already put a lot of effort into insisting that withdrawal be orderly. I don't think they'd make much fuss about a request for extension.
     
  10. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    They wont, cause if they would then you wouldnt have had that awesome ecj farce with the changing wording to boot. I still am not seing how the british parliament will vote to cancel its previous vote on this stage ending in march 29. Am i missing some way this will happen?
     
  11. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Impress me, Kyriakos. How did the ECJ change the wording of Article 50? I'm sure you're aware of this, but just because you might not agree with a legal decision, it doesn't mean that they cheated in some fashion.
     
  12. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I am just following this thread. Seems the wording about "abusive use" was done away with by your new favorite beacons of justice :)
    Where were they when all sorts of nazi stuff took place against an actual member of both the eu and even its stupid core, the eurozone? Including unlawful banning from ecb decisions. I am sure they are about as autonomous as a tail is of a comet.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  13. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    So, not at all then? Right.
     
  14. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Not in any meaningful way; poetical thinking may still render them distinct :)
     
  15. brennan

    brennan Argumentative Brit

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    I think you are making a bit much of that K. It really doesn't strike me as sinister or underhand for the text to change between a preliminary press release and the final version.
     
  16. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Maybe. Yet i personally doubt it. At any rate i wont be deciding what will happen. And i think it is obvious that the matter still remains for the british people/ country to decide. I do fear it may not reach an end soon.
     
  17. uppi

    uppi Chieftain

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    Well, let's consider the scenarios:
    a) No deal is signed: In this case, the EU will not extend A50. Granting an extension would just delay everything and remove pressure to sign a deal. The EU cannot have that.
    b) The deal is signed. In this case, there is an orderly withdrawal, there are few immediate actual practical consequences. I don't see why an extension would be necessary from the point of the EU.
    c) The UK wants an extension to hold another referendum. I think the EU will go for this only if this eliminates the threat of a no-deal Brexit. So the EU will only go for this, if it has a guarantee that the only options on that referendum are remain and May's deal.
    d) Parliament votes to remain, because they cannot agree on the deal and see this as the only option to avoid a no-deal Brexit and panic. In this case, an extension would not be required and the lack of an extension is actually the cause for this scenario.

    If an extension would only be required to limit the political chaos in the UK, which the statement did seem to indicate, it will not be in the interest of the EU to grant an extension. Political chaos in the seceding country is a feature, not a bug of this 2-year period.
     
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  18. Senethro

    Senethro Overlord

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    I'm not sure I would call it a bug or a feature, more like user error. A non-stupid government would have done some planning and thought before triggering A50.
     
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  19. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I agree, yet do not see d as possible, while c would not be acceptable to the tories and some other leavers (having no 'no deal option' in a new ref).
     
  20. ori

    ori Repair Guy Super Moderator

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    I do not see any unanimous decision (on any meaningful measure) in the near future within the EU - the Brexit treaty only requires a qualified majority as such it is much easier to get accepted - any extension requires a unanimous decision, how that is supposed to work is beyond me at this juncture.
     

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