Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[brennan]

Others like brennon were complaining about

Er, no, pointing out that these companies exemplify the fact that people like Dyson don't give a monkeys about British jobs or workers - they act out of pure self-interest and are not on your side.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

Er, no, pointing out that these companies exemplify the fact that people like Dyson don't give a monkeys about British jobs or workers - they act out of pure self-interest and are not on your side.

And I was pointing out the EU doesn’t give a monkeys about British jobs or workers in the JLR move.

 

[Cheetah]

Good thing this isn't about a choice between JRL, Dyson, and Bamford on one side, and the EU on the other side, then.

 

[Kyriakos]

A bit ot, but does the surname "dyson" mean anything? I always considered it as sounding quite cool.

 

[Lillefix]

A bit ot, but does the surname "dyson" mean anything? I always considered it as sounding quite cool.

There's the Dyson sphere. That's definitely cool.

 

[Takhisis]

Miles Dyson, man.

You clearly didn’t bother to read the whole of the bit from the Telegraph.

Given that the Telegraph and other papers routinely make up their ‘news’ and most people here know it, it's no wonder.

 

[Takhisis]

Hmm-hmm, the Brexit is not stronk in this one.

Brexit EU preparing to delay UK's departure until at least July

Brussels expecting UK request to extend 29 March deadline, with May’s deal on brink

No-confidence motion Corbyn promises move against May 'soon'​

 

[Silurian]

And some of the No deal Brexiteers are now likely to vote for the may deal so they get some sort of Brexit rather than remain if the May deal is defeated.

 

[Cheetah]

A bit ot, but does the surname "dyson" mean anything? I always considered it as sounding quite cool.

https://www.houseofnames.com/dyson-family-crest

The Anglo-Saxon name Dyson comes from the medieval personal name Dennis. Dyson is a metronymic surname, which belongs to the category of hereditary surnames. In this case, the surname comes from the first name of the mother, or of another female ancestor of the bearer. It was common for second sons to take the name of their mother as a surname in the Middle Ages. In general, where patronymic surnames were used, the first son adopted the given name of his father as a surname. This type of surname is the most common form of hereditary surname. The earliest origins of this family were found in the county of Worcestershire, where they had been settled prior to the Norman Conquest, in 1066.

There's the Dyson sphere. That's definitely cool.

Named after Freeman Dyson:

The concept of the Dyson sphere was the result of a thought experiment by physicist and mathematician Freeman Dyson, when he theorized that all technological civilizations constantly increased their demand for energy. He reasoned that if human civilization expanded energy demands long enough, there would come a time when it demanded the total energy output of the Sun. He proposed a system of orbiting structures (which he referred to initially as a shell) designed to intercept and collect all energy produced by the Sun. Dyson's proposal did not detail how such a system would be constructed, but focused only on issues of energy collection, on the basis that such a structure could be distinguished by its unusual emission spectrum in comparison to a star. His 1960 paper "Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infra-Red Radiation", published in the journal Science, is credited with being the first to formalize the concept of the Dyson sphere.

However, Dyson was not the first to advance this idea. He was inspired by the mention of the concept in the 1937 science fiction novel Star Maker, by Olaf Stapledon, and possibly by the works of J. D. Bernal, Raymond Z. Gallun, and Edgar Rice Burroughs, who seem to have explored similar concepts in their work.

Which reminds me, I should finish reading Star Maker at some point...

 

[Takhisis]

And some of the No deal Brexiteers are now likely to vote for the may deal so they get some sort of Brexit rather than remain if the May deal is defeated.

This is approaching soap opera status.

 

[Hrothbern]

Monday
The EU is expected to publish a letter of clarification emphasising that any use of the Northern Ireland backstop designed to keep the land border open would only ever be temporary, although it will be a surprise if it makes much difference to the Commons arithmetic.

MPs move on to day four of the Brexit debate, with Philip Hammond, the chancellor, closing proceedings. Monday night is the deadline for submitting amendments to the Brexit motion.


Tuesday
If May allows it, MPs will finally get to vote on her Brexit deal, although few believe the prime minister can get it approved, given that more than 100 Tory MPs have said they will vote against it.

John Bercow, the Speaker, will select which amendments to vote on. The one to watch is the Hilary Benn amendment, which rejects both May’s deal and no deal, and gives MPs a say in what happens next.

The prime minister will conclude proceedings, speaking just before voting starts at 7pm. A result on the Benn amendment could come at about 7.30pm. If that falls, the all-important vote on May’s final deal is expected between 8 and 9pm. Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, could immediately demand to hold a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, if she is defeated. A heavy loss, and May will face immediate calls to resign.


The agenda up to the vote on Tuesday. It will be fireworks.

 

[Arakhor]

And now, hilariously, Theresa May is threatening that no Brexit is now more likely than no deal. Everything is falling down around her, we (supposedly) leave the EU in less than three months and the useless woman is still playing to her backbenches, rather than doing anything substantive.

 

[Silurian]

May or the Brexit ministers have never had any talks with Labour to find any elements on which they have common ground

 

[innonimatu]

And some of the No deal Brexiteers are now likely to vote for the may deal so they get some sort of Brexit rather than remain if the May deal is defeated.

That is the current gamble, but I very much doubt that it will work. Just remain as it is would further fuel support for those brexiteers, who'd then be able to declare themselves representatives of the betrayed voters. They have every incentive to let a postponement happen rather that vote for the May deal. Though personally I believe that the Brussels PR machine is just spewing lies in a desperate attempt to have their deal passed, they won't do a postponement.

The "letter of clarification" was the one help that was pormised to May in her last attempt to get a better deal. More PR.

 

[Estebonrober]

This is approaching soap opera status.

UK and US have been soap opera status for quite a while.

 

[Takhisis]

Well, yes, you see, but people in TV scriptwriting usually try to make some things go too far in order to get away with it because ‘hey, it's comedy’.

E.g. John Major having an affair in a certain '90s TV series.

 

[FriendlyFire]

So maybe we in the UK prefer WTO rules which don't require us to cross subsidise the competition.

Well the Germans view it as rebuilding Europe, with long term benefits of increased trade (and some war guilt). I would say its more about mismanagement of the EU funds, wastage and policisied spending

WTO set the very lowest bases for international trade which is why most modern western countries all sign trade agreements with each other, with the larger trading partner more or less dictating terms
As the worlds number 6th? economy, UK is deluding itself if it thinks it can get favorable terms with the top 1-5 economies
How the UK performs under WTO rules remains to be seen, UK financial passporting services for example will be eliminated in a hard brexit

 

[Arwon]

And now, hilariously, Theresa May is threatening that no Brexit is now more likely than no deal. Everything is falling down around her, we (supposedly) leave the EU in less than three months and the useless woman is still playing to her backbenches, rather than doing anything substantive.

But if Brexit is cancelled how will Ireland be decolonised

 

[Silurian]

That is the current gamble, but I very much doubt that it will work. Just remain as it is would further fuel support for those brexiteers, who'd then be able to declare themselves representatives of the betrayed voters. They have every incentive to let a postponement happen rather that vote for the May deal. Though personally I believe that the Brussels PR machine is just spewing lies in a desperate attempt to have their deal passed, they won't do a postponement.

The "letter of clarification" was the one help that was promised to May in her last attempt to get a better deal. More PR.

I agree that it most likely will not work and the MayEU deal will be defeated tomorrow evening. I also that if we remain in the EU a large minority will fell betrayed but a large minority will be relieved and the rest will not know what to make of it. But on the other hand if there is a no deal Brexit a small majority will think we have been sold down the river by a bunch of snake oil salesmen and a large minority will say we have Brexit but I was hopping for some sort of deal we will have to make the best of it now and the rest will be optimistically looking for unicorns. No matter what happens a large minority of the population will be feeling betrayed until at least the 2030s.

It is unlikely that there will be a postponement of the vote on the May deal. There is a small but not insignificant possibility that Parliament may take over negotiations from the government next week.

There is PR on all sides and I have little hope for the letter that May has asked the EU to send today.

 

[Hrothbern]

The two letters;
From May: https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wp.../uploads/2019/01/Prime-Ministers-letter-1.pdf
From Tusk & Juncker with a clarification: https://www.consilium.europa.eu//media/37871/20190114-letter-to-prime-minister-may.pdf

cutting the fluff, what remains is three pragraphs with the clarification by the EU:

The European Commission can also confirm our shared understanding that the Withdrawal
Agreement and the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland:

*** Do not affect or supersede the provisions of the Good Friday or Belfast Agreement of 10 April 1998 in any way whatsoever; they do not alter in any way the arrangements under Strand II of the 1998 Agreement in particular, whereby areas of North-South cooperation in areas within their respective competences are matters for the Northern Ireland Executive and Government of Ireland to determine;

*** Do not extend regulatory alignment with European Union law in Northern Ireland beyond what is strictly necessary to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland and protect the 1998
Agreement; the Withdrawal Agreement is also clear that any new act that the European Union proposes should be added to the Protocol will require the agreement of the United Kingdom in the Joint Committee;

*** Do not prevent the United Kingdom from facilitating, as part of its delegation, the participation of Northern Ireland Executive representatives in the Joint Committee, the Committee on issues related to the implementation of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, or the joint consultative working group, in matters pertaining directly to Northern Ireland.

If that will change the vote of some MP's it would be either incompetence from not understanding earlier on, or an unfounded U-turn by them, because nothing has changed.



The real elephant, where no amount of clarification can help:

The EU is clear on what they want from the very start of the Art 50 negotiation period:
If the UK does not agree to avoid a hard Irish border... now or ever... there will be no Withdrawal deal now, and no future FTA or Lichtenstein +++ deal ever... there will only be WTO.

What May wants for the vote on her deal is very clear: she wants to keep the big stick of threatening to not give a soft border in order to negotiate a better future trade deal during that transition period.
Which could again lead to two years full of negotiations, writing up hundreds of pages of detail agreements, and have in 2020 the same cliff edge "all or nothing" as we have now.
Plus an UK economy another 2 years (if not 4 years) between hope and fear for that looming cliff edge, eroding confidence of business, halting needed foreign and domestic investments, encouraging further translocations to EU countries.

What the EU wants is to get rid of the unclear situation now and move on.... and not burn another two years for another cliff edge... and possibly for nothing.
(something they BTW share with the hard Brexiteers)




EDIT
I see that the Guardian has a hope article, softening the impact over time of the backstop of the Withdrawal deal, emphasising on the quantum tunnel effect of the technological solution to soften the hard Irish border.
The text in the EU letter regarding this:
"...... the Commission is determined to give priority in our work programme to the discussion of proposals that might replace the backstop with alternative arrangements. In this context, facilitative arrangements and technologies will be considered"
For sure on the back of the 4th industrialisation wave and the 2nd digitalization wave solutions will come. But not in such short terms as the coming years, especially not for the many smaller companies that will not have ERP software like the big multinationals.
All fluff.
But here the article link: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...p-time-limit-but-backs-technological-solution