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Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

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  1. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    Odds that what they get on April 8th is a request for another extension, and that what happens at the April 10th meeting is that they grant it?
     
  2. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    This looks like a strong possibility as May is hinting that if she doesn't get her 4th vote victory and Parliament decides to back a form of Brexit she doesn't like (which is anything except her plan) she'll ask for a long extension and hold a general election.
    A lot of Tories are worried about losing their seats so May is hoping she'll get a few more to vote for her plan because of that.

    edit: ofc the EU may decide not to grant an extension if May's plan is to send her plan back for a 5th, 6th, 7th vote etc so No Deal isn't off the cards either.
     
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  3. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    See my edit added below to that post on the dates

    When the Cusoms Union vote wins today, and would win from May's deal...
    How can May any longer prevent a Customs Union ?
    Unless she uses really brutal measures

    If the Custom Union vote is not strong enough it could go in any direction depending on the internal Tory infighting.
     
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  4. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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  5. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    May is no genius, so it isn't likely she has much of a personal plan or clear reason to want her deal. Seems she is just locked to it by now and keeps pushing it for her own legacy - weird that she thinks she has a legacy other than walking barefoot through fields of fallen poppies.

    Also, from AmazonQueen's link:

    Roth sounds like the opposite of refined. While all the claims are a mess, the Shakespeare line in particular sounds dumb.
     
  6. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    To look at the debate and votes today, this evening, from quite another angle as the newsmedia report as general picture:
    (how much do we really see on what happens behind the many curtains ?)

    "Goldman Sachs cut to 45 percent from 50 percent the chance that a modified version of the current withdrawal agreement is eventually approved in the House of Commons. It said the odds of ‘no Brexit’ had risen to 40 percent from 35 percent, while it kept the probability of ‘no deal’ unchanged at 15 percent".


    This is from the evaluation by Goldman Sachs after the Friday vote and as reported in Reuters today. To make sure I guess that investors should not panick from the lost third May vote and the newsmedia diarrhea.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...ter-withdrawal-agreement-defeat-idUSKCN1RD1EU

    * No-Brexit odds increased from 35% to 40% !!!
    This must I guess relate to an assumed high chance on a confirmatory Referendum incl a high chance that Remain would win (never mind legalities about Remain-Rejoin that can dissolve when willingness is there by the EU).
    And some small % chance of Revoke is added ???

    * No-deal estimated at a steady 15%.
    Accidents happen.

    * A modified Withdrawal deal down from 50% to 45%
    There is not that much difference in short-medium economical terms between the May deal (FTA) and a moderately softer Brexit like for example the Customs Union.
    For finance and stock effects apparently for Goldman Sachs small enough to wrap them together.

    * They do expect a longer extension of Art 50 to a year or so (note the original May deal has a 21 months extension), and expect therefore the UK to hold EU elections.
    Which is given the high chance Goldman gives to a no-Brexit consistent. And IF this high chance is indeed reality, it explains better why May and no-deal Brexiteers started to give so much fuel and attention in the past 2 weeks in messaging that this EU election would be abhorrent.

    Compared to the red hot politics as reported in the newsmedia, all the threats within the Tory party, as twittered by politicians, this Goldman Sachs evaluation is at first glance weird. And if correct... it has consequences for the tactics today.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2019
  7. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    You expect Goldman Sachs to be able to - let alone mean to - make an estimate reflecting just reality and not their own schemes? GS is a big part of the banking system mess.
    Their employees include a number of important eu officials of past times. Even Baroso, the previous Juncker.
     
  8. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    They have for sure their own interests... and a bad track record in interfering in EU public political domain as well. I am no friend of Goldman Sachs at all !
    But they do report this at the risk of their own business reputation (not politics-democratic reputation which is zero)
     
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  9. Thorgalaeg

    Thorgalaeg Deity

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    I prefer the odds at betting websites:

    Not deal is now at 12/5

    Deal at 3/10

    2nd referendum 11/5

    Not 2nd referendum 4/9

    Art 50 revoked 5/2

    Not revoked 1/3
     
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  10. Lillefix

    Lillefix I'm serious. You can.

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    I don't understand these numbers. Is higher more or less probable?
     
  11. really

    really Deity

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    Higher number is less probable.
    Win:Bet
    So 5/2 = bet 2 win 5 plus your bet back.
    1/3 bet 3 win 1 plus your bet back
     
  12. Thorgalaeg

    Thorgalaeg Deity

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    That^. It can be also converted to probabilities, for example:

    12/5 would be 5/(12+5) = 0'29 = 29%
    3/10 would be 10/(3+10) = 0,77 = 77%
     
  13. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    I converted in percentages.
    Do note that each pair should in theory end up in 100% if it would be a zero game.
    But the differences are small.

    Not deal is now at 12/5 => 5/17 => 29%
    Deal at 3/10 = 10/13 = 77%

    2nd referendum 11/5 => 5/16 = 33% edit 31%
    Not 2nd referendum 4/9 => 9/13 = 64% edit 69%

    Art 50 revoked 5/2 => 2/7 = 28%
    Not revoked 1/3 => 3/4 = 75%
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2019
  14. Thorgalaeg

    Thorgalaeg Deity

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    Bright minds...
     
  15. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    At every big moment I check the Pound together with banks estimates (are mostly alligned) and I check as well the bookies :)))

    Bank estimates have the bias of encouraging financial stability.
    The bookies drag with them the past bets, and they measure the opinion of the people and not the future reality.
     
  16. Manfred Belheim

    Manfred Belheim Oh you can edit this

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    2nd referendum should be 31%
     
  17. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    thanks... how sloppy I am... I correct the post :)
     
  18. Thorgalaeg

    Thorgalaeg Deity

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    Only a cristal ball can measure future reality.

    I like bookies because people is as objective as they can. No ideology can interfere when real money is at the stake.
     
  19. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Very street-wise :mischief:
     
  20. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Only intended as short numbers intermezzo:

    The UK government did estimate what the free trade FTA deals with the US and with China-India-NewZealand-Australia-the Gulf would deliver. To assess the Liam Fox potential.
    This is also not helpful:
    How Liam Fox is going to maneuver out of that mess IDK.
     
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