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Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

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  1. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Agree to a high degree
    In the law of big numbers, and bookies are big numbers in the UK, not really influenced by ideologies (some bias from faith is still there I think), well foreseen from info on public politics, you get good estimates.

    But the bulk of the people do miss the inside information that also influences what is going to happen, and which does not reach the public domain in a clear way.

    I just do not believe in that high chance of the bookies on a no-deal
     
  2. uppi

    uppi Deity

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    The fine print is important: What the EU means here that the UK could leave the EU on March 22 if it approved May's withdrawal agreement (including the backstop!) and a political declaration about the intent to negotiate a customs union. The political declaration would probably contain language that the backstop will be superfluous as soon as a customs union is agreed. But the UK Parliament would have to approve the withdrawal agreement as the only legally binding agreement.

    At the moment the EU is mainly interested in the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration is of minor concern and could be completely rewritten.
     
  3. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    Which is difficult for those who want a soft Brexit because it could well be Johnson or Gove as PM after May goes and they aren't politicians I'd trust at all.
     
  4. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I can see (even) Gove as pm. But BoJo is just ridiculous.
     
  5. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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  6. Akka

    Akka Moody old mage.

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    Okay, that one was hilarious :lol:
     
  7. Cheetah

    Cheetah Deity

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    :lol:

    Everything failed again! :D

    Customs union by only 3 votes, however.
     
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  8. Cheetah

    Cheetah Deity

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    Nick Boles says he is resigning the Tory whip because of the party’s unwillingness to compromise.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2019
  9. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    He kept himself under control, but ...

     
  10. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    And yet hes the clear favourite of the party membership and with so many possible candidates it may be hard to stop the Boris bandwagon getting him into the top 2 who are put to the membership.
    Some Tories have said they will leave the party if he becomes the leader. If they do I suspect he'd have to go for a General Election to try and get a majority.
     
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  11. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    It's a circus, so why not?
    I'd like to laugh at it, but it's depressing how mismanaged the while thing is.

    And if they are capable of doing a good estimate of what will happen, they'll say the opposite of what they believe to the public and trade against it...

    As for bookies, don't waste your time, just think what makes sense and what does not, politically. Nothing has changed in the past few months since the WA was published. If it can't be done, it won't be done. By that name of by any other. And the EU refuses anything else. So there is only one outcome left.

    And the UK's political authorities (I'm including the government and Parliament) are repeating Greece's idiocies in delaying and thus gradually wasting their position in what is effectively, and always will be, a confrontation with an adversary.
    Delay harms the UK: the people and organizations that prepared for exit day responsibly have had that changed and their plans thrown in disarray, now everyone is uncertain and less willing to make plans for a new date.
    And delay benefited the EU: they were unprepared (till are, but working hard now), and would be compelled to do temporary "mini-deals" in a number of things. As they get better prepared the terms of these deals will shift against the UK.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2019
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  12. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    Guy Verhofstadt is either talkig bullcrap without authority, or the EU had been lying all along about its red lines. Or, more likely, the british media is again misrepresenting the situation as part of the internal circus they're milking. A "Norway-style Brexit deal" does not meek the demand of the EU for an acceptable deal. It does not include the full regulatory alignment with an ad aeternum commitment for northern Ireland, aka the infamous "backstop".

    The only thing the EU is offering is another delay for the EU to advance its no-deal preparations further. While the UK remains mired in political deadlock. This statement by the drunkard-in-chief is transparent:

    This "if the british have not left" depend on the EU postponing again. They are inviting another postponement because it suits them, not because it's good for the UK of because the UK asked for one. The british government and Parliament should be busy passing the necessary legislation for handling the post-brexit situation, preparing proposals for all the sectoral deals necessary with the EU (the commission claims no such deals will be made, but that is plainly a lie for putting pressure on negotiations), and talking to all the large companies with supply chains extending into the EU about what they need to smooth the exit. Government and opposition should both be busy doing this, even propose a unity government. Instead they are wasting time with that circus!

    Edit: I actually missed a detail in what must be the most bonkers highly voted motion: common market 2.0 included "continued participation in the single market, and a “comprehensive customs arrangement” with the EU – including a “UK say” on future EU trade deals"? MPs are expecting the EU would agree to that? :crazyeye:
    And the customs union was supposed to be "permanent", but does that mean the backstop, or no backstop? Why does Labour vote against one with a backstop, but for another that is "permanent"? These proposals ase so vague and even so none can get approved, it should tell a lot to the people involved about the odds of any "path forward" being chosen that would satisfy the EU.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2019
  13. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    You do know that some of those pairs of numbers add up to more than 100%, don't you?
    If Ideology could not interfere with reality you wouldn't have Brexit in the first place.
    @Traitorfish get in here, now.
     
  14. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    The not so obvious side effects of Brexit:

    EU citizens are allowed to buy small quantities of marijuana while visiting Amsterdam under EU freedom of movement rules.
    But that freedom of movement is likely to disappear because of Brexit.
    ‘I’m not sure if I voted remain or leave,’ said Gary, a taxi driver from Liverpool. ‘I was too out of it at the time.’
    :cry:
     
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  15. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    That's a parody, right? Surely there isn't a real 'senior researcher on drug policy' named 'Mary Jaine.'
     
  16. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    April 1
    :p
     
  17. Yeekim

    Yeekim Deity

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    Even though Brexit news are frequently indistinguishable from parody IRL, this one is pretty obvious. :lol:
     
  18. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    There was yesterday, April 1, an article on fake news made by the Greek government on the summertime wintertime decision.

     
  19. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Quite unreal that it costs us massively to remain in the euro, amirite
     
  20. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Pay DENBTS !
     
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