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Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

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  1. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Yes
    This is the real point at this moment.
    The Remainers are not going to sacrifice their chance on Remain

    The 48% are not spineless weaklings... they fight for their opinion.. for their chances !!!

    And the promoters of Leave, that got those 52%, are being exposed more and more, as being liers and unicorns.

    I would love to have a day long debate in the Commons where Liam Fox is going to defend that his Global Britain FTA's are super duper good for the UK, and better than what the UK has.
    Ofc he has to make a big report first with facts... and forecasts... and then defend that.
    And the only thing needed in that debate is getting all those Brittania Unchained and other fancy Brexiteers "get themselves committed to those facts and forecasts"
    So when it would come to realities with a Brexit down the road in some years... we can at leat enjoy the killing of the careers of Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Gove, Raab, Hunt, Truzz, Pratel, and that whole 60 MP strong club into oblivion.
    But ofc they will not commit. Liam Fox expendable.

    Yes... I understand that fully

    This is about showing strenght, with Putin, Trump, Xi watching
    The people of the UK are not to blame for being the object of that contest
    The UK elite is to blame. The taking back control was their elite taking back control.
    The elite of the UK, losing ground in the UK from EU standards creeping in... the elite of the UK choose to throw the gauntlet of that contest... the useless fool Cameron performing the act.

    It does matter ofc what you recognise as strength...
    Walking away from the gauntlet, because you are big enough to ignore it (what you metatron propose) one way to show strength... but not the strongest way.

    As I said some posts ago... we are in a cruel process
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2019
  2. Yeekim

    Yeekim Warlord

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    I object to this sentiment.
    If the ultimate power lies with the people, then so does ultimate responsibility.
     
  3. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    Well my theory is that the Remainer majority (that includes Theresa May) in the UK Parliament is split between:

    (a) Pretend Exit (Theresa May's original plan)
    (b) Ignoring the Referendum result and revoking the invocation of Article 50
    (c) Having another Referendum (when they think they can fix the result they failed to fix in 2016)
    (d) Scots Nats who don't really care about the EU but want to break up the UK.

    The EU Commission etc want their vassalage deal because:

    (e) it increases their power;
    (f) damages the UK financial; and ICT industries
    (g) and otherwise humiliates the UK thereby deterring other dissidents.

    So at the moment their common ground is indefinite delay because a no deal UKexit where the sky does not fall in ends
    their dreams; and with indefinite delay, each Remainer faction can continue thinking it may lead to its desired outcome.

    However certain leaders in the other member states are beginning to realise that having the UK
    de facto remain in the EU against the wishes of its people on the basis of an ongoing conspiracy
    between UK Remoaners in Parliament and EU institutions may not in the long run be a wise thing.

    I also believe that the Remainer majority in the HoC do not want another election, because they
    rightly fear that it would rapidly become a single issue 'Leave Now' or 'Remain for Ever', with each
    candidate pressed to declare their allegiance and 'Leave Now' would win the majority of seats.
     
  4. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    As side note: There are many situations where responsibility and blame coincide, and many situations where they do not, or only to some degree.

    To the core of your point:
    It is well established in The Law that the "weaker" party is protected against the "stronger" party.
    (at least in Western European countries, IDK enough on for example East European countries)


    In for example a dispute between employee (the weaker party) and employer (the stronger party) this principle is expressed in the laws relevant.
    And even if you have signed explicitly for paragraphs in an employee contract that limit your rights or benefits, but are in conflict with standards expressed in regulations and law, these pragraphs are nul and void in meaning and the judge will apply in that vacuum based on Civil Law and that weak/strong party principle.

    The same happens with commercially actions from a company that are misleading for the buyer as citizen.
    Again: the company to company selling&buying has not the protections for the buyer, as a citizen has when buying from a company.
    Civil Law.
    => after being misleaded, the citizen can act as if he never agreed to the contract (whether from signing something, or performing the act (of taking the goods and/or paying))
    Certainly no blame... and even discharged of responsibility.

    As said... every country is different in how far, and in what way this general principle is embedded in Law.
    In our legalistic culture in NL we have in our written constitution that when for example a bank sells a mortgage to someone wanting to buy a house, that bank has a "care obligation" to ascertain for himself and openly for the customer that this is financially a viable action.

    With the relation between the State and the citizen, as selling&buying, providing&taking, this is usually a mixed bag,varying between countries, because the State does not like to give too much to their citizens because of self-protection.
    But still... there is protection at the Civil Law level, directly from citizen to the government institute involved.
    When it is not about a State institute, but a "State" political party, this becomes ofc more opaque. By tradition.
    Although even there... we had in NL the tradition that every Manifesto of a political party went through the Math department of the SPB, to calculate the financial-economical consequences, and expose inconsistencies. The same as what the IMF and the EU do with unicorn budgets proposed by EU members (and leading to disputes with for example Italy).
    The principle the EU-Eurozone applies is twofold:
    * no breaking of the discipline (ofc a ideological discussion)
    * no misleading of EU citizens by national governments


    It must be possible for a citizen to act in good faith based on a normal level of getting informed.

    Considering all the lies and fantasies heaped up at the bandwagon, the Brexit campaign was abusing the "weaker" position of the citizens by misleading them and disabling them to act in good faith.
    The government of the UK failed to protect its citizens with that common principle.
    A democracy is more than counting noses.

    So.. I do not blame the citizens... I blame Cameron, who was PM at that moment, not protecting good faith of his citizens.
     
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  5. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    There is a technique used by Party X in negotiations against an unprepared or half hearted opponent Party Y (such as Theresa May).

    A) Party X make all sorts of unreasonable demands.

    B) Party Y swallows most of them.

    C) Eventually Party Y baulks at one demand. It is usually the most unreasonable demand, and one that Party A does not actually care about.

    D) Party X refuses to withdraw that demand until the very last hour.

    E) Party X makes a concession on that demand at the last minute.

    F) Party Y foolishly signs, not realising that it has been manipulated, accepting all the other unreasonable demands.

    I have a hunch that Angela Merkel is trying to get Leo Varadkar to go along with step E) re the so called Irish backstop.
     
  6. metatron

    metatron unperson

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    There was a referendum and there was a general election.

    Now, if the take is that both were fraudulant or that people changed their mind and therefore a second referendum and yet another general election are needed, that's fine with me.
    But not on my time.
    There are very clear paths to do these things: Revoke Article 50 and then invoke it again after all this is settled. Or leave the EU and then reenter.
    Or - as the most obvious and natural solution - pass the deal and then add to it.
    None of this requires there to be any of this unearned entitlement.
    Even this two week extension is inexplicable.

    If i understand the situation correctly some vague majority favors compromising on some yet to be determined form of a "soft Brexit" that is softer than May's deal. It's hardly anybodies first choice but given the way things are that is what would ostensibly the outcome of May and Corbyn cooperating.
    That's fine.
    But i fail to see how that hinders passing the deal. They could just do that and then waste their own time, not ours, figuring out what named-after-some-country model with some asterisks they want.
     
  7. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Why would the EU be in a hurry because of some short term preferences or annoyances ?
    When Putin, Xi, Trump are looking at this struggle, they look upon it from their long-term interests.
    When the EU goes for short term interests instead of EU long term interests... they will smile.

    The real price for the 27 other EU members is that the UK remains or rejoins as a good team member of the EU. Two Trillion economy in the "standards" pool of the EU.
    But the EU cannot say that clearly. It becomes: "respect for the referendum... for the choice to go","we stay ofc close" etc.
    Once the Withdrawal deal is signed, the EU has secured its urgent prio 1 damage mitigation, but it will have the effect that the UK Remain camp will collapse for now.
    The main battle now in the UK as a whole is between a soft Brexit and Remain. Why end that battle ?
    Revoking Art 50 a nuke in the divide in the UK society. Why would the EU want to risk that possibly long term divide to happen... be happy when the UK would Remain in that way ?
    The main battle in the Tories is between no-deal WTO away from EU-standards, or May-deal FTA (a bit closer to EU standards).
    That no-deal WTO objective clearly driven by key UKians and key MPs closely alligned and financially supported by conservative US thinktanks, the Trumps, Bannons of this world.

    The only long term advantage, after that Withdrawal deal, of a soft future deal, is that it hinders a fast diverge in "standards" between the UK and the EU.
    The smaller that diverge, the easier the UK can later Rejoin the EU, or a modified EU having for example two levels. The EU allowed itself to show that preference by saying (a simple) Customs Union can be fixed easily.
    An FTA deal (May-deal) would mean the UK going random, or lowering standards to for example the US level.
    This would geopolitically weaken the EU.
    This "standards" trade war is really, really, important for the EU, it is the army of the EU. But the EU can never say that in public ofc. Just likePutin, Xi and Obama can not speak openly about that. (Only Trump is stupid).

    Spoiler Importance and consequences of "standards" :
    Protecting AND improving your domestic economy today is about "standards".
    Consider that the traditional high money barrier from transport cost is hardly there anymore from the economy of scale effects of transport tools like ships, airplanes, better motorways etc.
    The trading blocks around the world do not defend the interests of their domestic companies & jobs so much with tariffs but with "standards", formulated into regulations boiling down in NTB Non-Tariff-Barriers.
    The better you allocate the NTBs over your economical activities, the lower you can even make the tariffs. Those "standards" a perfect match between citizens desires and geopolitics.

    Trade strategy is (today even more) first of all about importing "goods" that improve the productivity of your industry, your economy as much, as cheap and easy as posiible... and only secundary about importing goods that improve the buying power of your citizens (cheap Korean TVs) and the consumer choice (more exotic fruit etc). => you want no barriers, tariffs at all for the prio 1 "goods" that improve your domestic economy and at the same time sky high walls against goods affecting your domestic economy.
    In a full employment country at high development, from a State, or EU perspective, export is only that what you need to do to pay for your needed imports !
    Even making a loss on your exports, by means of subsidising by the State, are well worth taking, if that enables you to develop your economy and import the productivity improving "goods". It pays off.
    (unless ofc you are a fossil fuel country and want to pump out everything before oil expires as energy source).
    Even having an negative trade balance because of importing the improving "goods" is a valid strategy when you have (close to) full employment and your currency does not collapses from a negative Current Account balance. Note also that a high value currency enables a country to buy enough improving "goods" cheaper. (what the US does). And note also that when the UK after Brexit faces possibly a big devaluation... the newsmedia will be full of export opportunities of cheaper export, but the price will be that import of improving "goods" comes under pressure from that higher price. For the UK at WTO this would likely mean that the productivity rate will go down from less smart imports.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2019
  8. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I wonder if ants feel that a slightly different, certainly within their ability, use of pheromones would prevent the destruction of their nest by the violent boy.
     
  9. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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  10. Samson

    Samson Warlord

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    You thought parliament could not get more ridiculous? They have stopped work for the day 'cos of a water leak:
    The House of Commons has been suspended for the day after water began pouring into the chamber from the ceiling, soaking a section of the press gallery.
    During a backbench debate on HMRC’s methods of recouping unpaid tax and national insurance, a torrent of water started to come down as the Conservative MP Justine Greening spoke, prompting her to pause and look up.
    The water soaked benches and the carpet in the far corner of the lower press gallery, where journalists watch proceedings, and filled ceiling light fittings in the corridor outside. There was also a major leak into a cafe on the floor above.

    During a debate on taxation, Labour MP Justin Madders struggled to be heard as the water leak in the Commons chamber grew louder.​
     
  11. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    Perhaps they should pass a resolution commanding the water to delay pouring.

    Time to relocate Parliament to somewhere more central, such as Birmingham.
     
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  12. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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  13. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    They should but they won't.
    Got enough complaints when they tried to move some high-ranking civil servants out of London in the 90s. Imagine having to live in the provinces.
     
  14. metatron

    metatron unperson

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    Erm... this is costing us in concrete terms in the first place.
    Economic damage due to the "insecurity".
    So there's cost, which the various strongmen then see us endure, patiently.
    Sure, we can spin that.
    Yeah, that's not going to happen.
    For the most part this will naturally occur anyway.
    Well, you can as well say that they will be permanently strengthened because now the blame would fall exclusively on Conservatives, while at a later point it would be shared more.
    It is?
     
  15. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    The headlines have been in the grip of the "non-negotiation" with the EU, and on the grip of the WTO Brexiteers on May. With in the background the Tory infighting between the clean WTO Brexit and some FTA with the EU at the cost of the backstop.
    And not that much, "on occasions only" attention on the Labour divide between the big New Referendum Momentum faction and the one end and the old anti-EU guard on the other end with the soft Brexit in between.
    The peopler in the UK more simply divided, Clean Brexit-soft-don't know-Remain.
    No-deal is removed as positive decision and can only happen by accident. The May-FTA deal, very close to no-deal, except the disruption, is voted down thrice.

    That leaves only soft Brexit versus Remain as battleground.
    Also the issue Corbyn faces now, if he would engage seriously in the May talks.
    And the very reason that soft Brexit does not emerge strongly enough for a majority is that Remain MPs are prepared for their Remain objective to gamble, to risk an accidental no-deal by not supporting a soft Brexit.

    For most Remainers, most of them Labour, the blame will go in all directions, unless Corbyn would strongly support a Confirmatory Referendum.
    But if this whole drama blows up while Corbyn uses still only the word "option" for a referendum, my guess is that too many of those (young) Momentum people will just hook off, take a long hot shower, and are one disappointing memory richer.

    For a big part yes, but it also depends on who controls the government directly post-Brexit.

    why not ?
    How much less did we invest in EU countries because of Brexit uncertainty ?
    Not compared to Remain (as if the referendum never happened)
    But how much less in EU countries because of the uncertainty difference between no-deal or a Withdrawal deal (May deal)?
    consider that the trade between UK and the EU is expected to decrease to between 50%-75% as of now.
    => no investments in the EU anyway for any product that is now exported to the UK.
    As I posted several times in this thread, the longer it takes before the disconnect is there, the more time for companies to adapt and re-route their suppliers and customers.
    The uncertainty EU companies in the EU face is how long they can continue their current trade. The uncertainty is about when their revenue goes down.
    EU companies in the EU exporting to the UK will be very happy indeed when a Customs Union would emerge as solution. And waiting for that does not hurt anything because waiting happens with a UK inside the Customs Union.
    That some big car or airplane manufacturers whine a bit about uncertainty on new investments by them in the UK... what has that to do with the interests of the jobs and economy in the EU ?
     
  16. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    It's interesting to see how the Conservative representation in the Lords is now objecting to this bill because it passed by only one vote in the Commons.
    This quote is so worthy of Spider-man that I must approve.
     
  17. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Not that the lords have a leg to stand on, but a bill passed with only one vote in a parliament where tens of mps won't ever be re-elected... isn't that validating.
    That said, imo the worst is that some of them won't even seek to stand for re-election. So they aren't really legitimized in deciding this (not that this is a UK only phenomenon; it is just a hideous one).
     
  18. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    As a sidenote, the same argument about not standing for re-election was used to justify preventing a Negro Barack Obama from nominating a Supreme Court justice by the party in the US that supports Brexit.

    But, mainly, we should ask ourselves: what do we do with the votes of people who died after the referendum, or those who emigrated, and what of those who have since become eligible voters but weren't then?
     
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  19. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Your can Grexit now, your rivials ants nest "Turkey" is undergoing an economic implosion and the EU is distracted by Brexit
    Its a perfect time for Greece to leave the EU.
     
  20. Akka

    Akka Moody old mage.

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    But you see, the problem with leaving the EU is that you won't be able to blame your problems on the EU anymore. That gives pause.
     
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