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Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

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  1. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    And join Erdogan's recipe for anything going wrong to accuse not only the EU, but also the US and international conspiracies, and ofc some enemy from within.
    I watched some street interviews yesterday in Istanbul in the turmoil of the elections there this week.... Erdogans party lost in Istanbul in the first count... they are now recounting the votes... it was just amazing how "well" these people repeated Erdogan's accusations. They really believed it.


    We have in NL the discussion now to reduce the max speed for cars in towns from 50 km/hr to 30 km/hr, for fewer and less severe accidents. Currently roughly 70% of the streets, the smaller streets, is already limited at 30 km/hr.
    The parallel idea triggering it, is to push all e-scooters, e-bikes, etc, away from the bicycle paths and lanes, to the car lanes for more safety on the bicycle lanes (the amount of those e-vehicles increasing and you don't hear those silent fast driving e-scooters behind you).

    Now... some municipalities are going to test that and many boards of municipalities would like to do that as well, and do likely represent a majority of their citizens for that action, but they fear the "angry citizen" protests, their votes, etc.
    So they appealed to the central government in the Hague to decide it by the Cabinet and make it into law if the tests would be succesful.
    But such decisions are the area of responsibility (within some wider central frames ofc) of the municipalities.

    But yeah... it is so much easier to use a higher entity for something you want, and blame them.... than to take responsibility yourself and saddle yourself up with the inconvenience of explaining it all to your own backyard.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2019
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  2. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    So considering Merkel's statements, her visit to Ireland may have worked. It seems that most in the EU, Ireland included, are throwing away the backstop demand. The idea of a "flexible period" means allowing the UK to retain its full position as member (far more than the WA allowed for, including voting rights) and the freedom to choose when to leave, unconditionally, without having to agree to a "backstop". While this extension lasts the UK is supposed to negotiate its "future relationship", the same as the period the WA granted, without its most exorbitant condition.
    Unless one of the countries vetoes in the Council (France?), the backstop is dead. No one will say so on the media right now, of course...

    This is a deal that most of the political forces in the UK can accept. The remainers get to keep their delusions of the UK forgetting all about brexit. The fearful leavers get to point out that the EU gave up on the backstop. Only the leavers who believed in the ability of the UK to go it alone will be against. I still think the best course for the UK is to just leave, but I can see how this offer may be taken up - if it indeed is made.

    The one politically tricky thing about this is that the EU side won't wish to be seen climbing down, to have any media pointing out that they gave up on the backstop. And the UK leavers who decide to back this alternative to the WA will need to cover that by pointing out that it is a better deal than the WA because it does away with the backstop while allowing for the other things the WA did: it still has an expiration date, it is still a temporary arrangement while another deal is negotiated.

    One of the sides will lose face, because people can read other countrie's media. This alone may lead to some heads of state on the EU side to block this proposed solution.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2019
  3. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    So, staying in, whilst retaining the freedom to leave unconditionally with no backstop and no deal? That's (almost certainly) not going to happen.
     
  4. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I thought the backstop was there to protect against the IRA.

    /sarcasm
     
  5. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    Nevertheless I think that all this brinkmanship is quite unwise.

    Apart from being accident prone, it maximises distraction, division and uncertainty.

    Better for the UK to simply just leave, see what problems actually occur,
    and then negotiate and/or take other actions according to that reality,
    than this endless saga of manoeuvering on postulated hypotheticals.
     
  6. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    The flextension is born
    A (horizontally) rubber cliff edge
    That flextension can be terminated by the UK by either deciding to exit as no-deal or deciding to exit by signing the Withdrawal deal (incl that backstop).

    When MP's in Parliament stay blocking no-deal and do not want to agree to that Withdrawal deal because of the backstop and/or that it would destroy the chance to remain....
    they can get at least a year extension by accepting holding EU elections in the UK.

    For the UK a choice for the lesser evil.


    For the EU:
    * a chance on getting that Withdrawal deal incl either a FTA, a Customs Union or something soft+++, and the backstop secured
    * a chance on a confirmatory referendum between Remain or that Withdrawal deal.
    * the stance that the EU did everything it could to prevent economical disruption for everybody involved (the opposition within the EU against extensions only "proving" what a hardship the EU overcame to be the "generous" EU)
     
  7. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    The eu: begging a country that spits on it to stay. Always exhumes power and stability. ;)
     
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  8. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    History will judge that ;)
     
  9. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Meanwhile Jacob Rees-Mogg has tweeted that if we get another extension: "we could veto any increase in the budget, obstruct the putative EU army and block Mr Macron’s integrationist schemes."

    Isn't it strange how prominent Leavers are suddenly only now remembering all the powers that we have as a member state, as opposed to, ooh, three years ago?
     
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  10. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    He forgets that the EU moved to (qualified) majority voting several years ago, and the UK now has lttle authority to veto anything.

    In general the veto only applies to things essential to a member state, and the ECJ would very rightly rule that those
    things would come into effect after the UK has left, and are thus inessential to the UK, so the UK has no veto on them.

    So IIRC the only thing that the UK can actually veto is new members joining and substantial treaties with third parties.

    And there is nothing to stop the other 27 EU member states from agreeing something by a technically separate
    pseudo EU agreement or treaty, that would, on the UK's departure, be instantly ported into EU treaty or law.

    The German states in the North German Federation and later the German Federation soon learnt that a
    theoretical right of veto meant very little, if Prussia and the other states were prepared to carry on with a change.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2019
  11. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Well, he was never one to avoid sounding stupid and/or out of touch at the best of times.
     
  12. really

    really Chieftain

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    Lots of areas are still by unanimity - tax, budget, social security, some justice, foreign, security, defence, membership.
     
  13. Yeekim

    Yeekim Warlord

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    You mean exudes?
    But I agree with the sentiment for once.
    Hopefully the Council won't go for Tusk's plan.
     
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  14. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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  15. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    If the EU wants to cling to the WA and its one unacceptable condition, an agreement never ratified in the UK (indeed repeatedly refused and then resubmitted in a way very typical of the EU) and that thus becomes outdated as soon as the government that negotiated it on the UK's side is replaced, so be it.
    Forewarned of this, the UK should take this "flextension" and use the time to prepare properly for a no-deal exit. As it should have been learned from the greek example, it's the only way to deal with the EU: to have a credible alternative and be ready to take it.

    But can the UK get rid of the incompetent government it has? Anbd do so soon so that a new one prepares properly, and forces a renegotiation? If it can, it's a good idea to take this. If it can't, better be done with it now and move on to the post-exit phase. Then new elections will happen.

    This all depends on that "flextension" being offered to start with, of course.
     
  16. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Pretending and flextending.
     
  17. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    The fun thing with this is that the EU is already playing it the UK's way: making it up as they go. The EU treaties do not rpovide for extensions at all but for a lite in Article 50 saying that the date may be postponed.

    Doing two dates depending on a condition being med, as the EU already did, was making up new stuff not provided for in the treaty. Not explicitly forbidden either, sure, but it's outside the alleged modus operandi of the "rules-bound" EU. Now there is talk of attaching not one but a series of conditions to a new extension. This is the EU negotiating on how it refuses to negotiate :rolleyes: The circus is on on both sides of the Channel.
     
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  18. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Welcome to the world of unequal negotiations. Brexiters take note: these people are our allies, so take a look at the US' ludicrous demands for a trade deal to see what sort of tactics really await us out there.
     
  19. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    There are not your allies. They just have an interest in keeping trade the existing with you.
     
  20. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    There are for certain differing opinions within the EU on that flextension, creating a lot of smoke as well, and the final position could very well happen after the May visit, with her "plan", during a long PM EU-27 evening again.
    And because as of now that flextension is not certain May must calculate with both scenarios: the hard EU line or the soft EU line, with May the one forced to do the opening bid in that meeting. Unless she again is just going to sit there.

    Incompetent ? yes ! May made many gambles, mistakes of many kinds. But I do think that Cameron's gamble forced the UK in an almost impossible position.... It's all water under the bridge.

    New elections would be the next gamble... and with May on track of losing what she wants... and the risk on a soft Brexit and heaven forbid even a referendum emerging now....why not another throw of the dice by her ?
    But whether that fast election will get support of Parliament is a big unknown for me.
    If that Cooper motion, disabling a no-deal, is going in time through the Lords... why would soft-Brexiteers and Remainers risk their improved position with new elections ?
    And if Corbyn would whip his Labour into voting for that election because that was decided at the Conference... he is whipping Momentum finally close to getting their referendum....
    and would that encourage Momentum to canvass for that election ?

    IDK, and so many other factors... too complex

    If May has for the EU meeting not on offer a deal with Corbyn, does not want a cliff edge no-deal, does not want a referendum... what else has she to offer to the EU than elections ?.... Unless she is again just going to sit there in Brussels.
    When those elections would be done on the same date as the EU elections, and she would win with enough votes to push through her own May deal in 1-2 days, withdraw officially before the UK has to install MEP members ... job done.
    (IIRC her latest promise was to step down after the deal was done)

    But what if she does not win ?

    The bottom line of the EU never changed: an orderly exit with minimal damage, the rights of cross-border citizens, Ireland and for the UK, when wanting a FTA, the same treatment in trade as the US, Canada, Japan, and any other third country.
     
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