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Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

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  1. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    ^Momentum aren't there for a fantasy referendum. If they were then they would have no issue voting for blairites. Let's not pretend they are going to ;)
     
  2. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    More than 80% of the Labour members want a confirmatory referendum.
     
  3. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    If they weren't our allies, they wouldn't have spent so long indulging May's ridiculous red lines.
     
  4. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Not if it means voting for blairos. Curiously no poll on that; must be chance ;)
     
  5. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    Only the best and the brightest want Brexit.
     
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  6. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    You wouldn't mind quoting sources, would you? I'm asking for a friend.
     
  7. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Why would anyone want pre-decimalisation currency back? That went out almost 50 years ago.
     
  8. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    Because it's real English stuff, and not that Continental decimal crap. :p
     
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  9. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    Theres people who want pounds and ounces back. They were teaching metric when my mum was at school in the 1950s.
     
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  10. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    Knuts, Sickles and Galleons are so in.
     
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  11. Marla_Singer

    Marla_Singer United in diversity

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    I agree with you. I have no doubt about Tusk's good intentions, but this will only put the EU in a weaker position and nothing positive could come out of it. Britain will only use the extra-time to insist in trying to renegociate the deal.

    I believe the Brexit process has now come too far. Even a long delay forcing Brits to participate to next EU elections against their will doesn't sound like a good idea to me. We do respect British sovereignty in letting that option on the table, but it wouldn't be good for the EU if it happens this way.

    Anyway, it seems Tusk's position may not be shared by all member states:
     
  12. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    They are having ideas published to observe the reactions. But they is not many sides on the "EU side". Few countries have a particular interest on how exactly brexit goes. Ireland (very important trade links), Germany (export market), France (aspirations for leadership in the EU), Spain (Gibraltar) seem to be the ones speaking up the most. Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium (trade) and Cyprus (the bases) and Italy (possible exit form the Euro) should care, but if they do they're keeping it discreet.

    Then there's the EU bureaucracy. Tusk probably just wants to leave looking good, if brexit is delayed for a few months he's done. Juncker seems to be Selmayr's puppet and the best gauge of the EU's "professional bureaucracy", they seem to take seriously the threat of the UK disrupting Brussel's agendas if it remains inside. Probably want to see the UK away asap.

    I still think none of the two parties (none of the factions inside, even) want to risk elections before brexit is done. And you are evaluating Cooper's motion wrong. It calls for an extension, but not only could the government just disobey it, it can bring about a brexit without any delay through "incompetence", or real incompetence. Bonus points if it does so playing the victim, asking for a delay that the EU won't grant.
    Labour asking for a referendum open just another space for confusion: a referendum on what exactly? Deal or no deal? Deal or remain? Deal or no deal or remain? Calling a referendum may as well be a signal that a "path forward" is not on offer.

    The EU's position will certainly have to change in order to accommodate the possibility of the UK holding a referendum on a deal, that provides no certainty at all on the resolution of the issue. It also has to change if it is to offer a long "period of grace" that was supposed to be under the Withdrawal Agreement with the backstop as a price, instead "free of compromises" by the UK. I'm guessing that there will be demands to offer such a delay only with conditions attached, perhaps even the "backstop" - but that would surely lead to rejection by the UK, and no more time to renegotiate - brexit on the 12th.
    This last thing seems to be the endgame that allows most sides to save face with their constituencies.

    Edit:
    @Marla_Singer It's odd that France should have secured Belgium's support for that. I expected them to still be hoping for no brexit like the dutch, and now wonder about the extent of the influence of Brussel's EU bureaucracy on its current government.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2019
  13. Marla_Singer

    Marla_Singer United in diversity

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    Well, there's no doubt all of the current members would have hoped for no Brexit, but Belgium is very pro-European and it's just a fact that it would be toxic for the EU if the Brits would be forced participating at next European elections against their will.

    A Sky Data poll has been released yesterday and the results prove this quite well:
    https://news.sky.com/story/european...quarter-of-public-would-boycott-poll-11685011





     
  14. mitsho

    mitsho Chieftain

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    That‘s easy. We have votes like this all the time: 1) Do you want to leave the EU or remain in the EU? 2) If Yes prevails in question 1, do you prefer leaving without a deal or the Withdrawal agreement?

    The thing ist, there‘s no time anymore. So let‘s just let it crash and go on from there...

    In retrospect, the biggest problem seems to be the UK system which gives the parliamentary majority so much power and they decided to do it „secretly“, i.e. based on their representative majority. The „right“ way forward would probably have been to have some sort of deliberative process like Ireland has done with their decisions on Abortion and Gay Marriage. Both of those resulted in a popular vote in the end, but it started a semi-public decision on the content. Even including the parliament from the start would have been better, forcing the hard brexiteers to take positions on content issues. The petulant parliament we have now is just a reaction to being shut out at the start. Like a child. :)
     
  15. really

    really Chieftain

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    Not sure if this is sarcastic or not.
    The imperial system refers to the Roman empire, not the British one.
    The acronym for pounds shillings and pence was LSD librae, solidi, and denarii.
     
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  16. Sofista

    Sofista card-carrying

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    Then along came Timothy Leary?
     
  17. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    I don't understand why you come up with blairos all the time.
    Highlighting on the "enemy from within", accusing all the time people with a undesired opinion as "enemy from within" is quite toxic for in-party democratics and consensus. Why do you join in that ?

    It's not like "ohhh, there are two factions in the Labour party that complicate things"... there is an overwhelming big faction + some fringe"
    Here the poll done around the Labour Conference, and the "sitting on the fence" position of Corbyn, on behalve of a part of those other 14%, and shadow chansellor McDonnell pushing back on the opinion of the 86%.
    86% of Labour members want a confirmatory referendum
    91% believe that Brexit will damage the economy, and will make austerity worse and will worsen protections.

    The article of the Financial Times, the poll done by YouGov: https://www.ft.com/content/dc56ee36-bea4-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b89a

    Here a simple summary:

    Polls done between the Conference and now show basically the same picture.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2019
  18. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    In theory yes, but in practice no.

    Budgets have already been set for many years.

    The use of the veto would merely limit the impact of veto'd changes on the UK.

    It would most likely result in parallel process and terminology beng invented to circumvent the veto,
    the bother of doing that would understandardly annoy the EU27 and third party countries, who could be
    correspondingly difficult at WTO, UN and elsewhere, so for the UK to follow the DRM drop line would be unwise.
     
  19. uppi

    uppi Warlord

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    The current budget is expiring in 2020, so a new budget needs to be negotiated in the next year. It is supposed to run for 7 years (or roughly 80 votes on May's deal), so EU members would be very wary of the UK having any influence on that, despite a stated intention to leave.

    You are right that straight up vetos wouldn't work. But the UK could exploit different opinions between the other members and back contrary opinions. However, you would need someone competent at EU politics for that and I am not seeing anyone among the current (actually any time recent) crop.
     
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  20. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Νάις :)
     
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