We should remember that the Tory party got more votes in the last election than it did in the one before that. It lost seats in the House of Commons, so now theirs is a minority government, but that is because of the electoral alchemy that is FPTP.
Yes
A PR poll does not tell how the seats end up.
There was a while back a poll on 25,000 people of which an article said they had used that big number to develop a system to estimate seats as function of the PR. I guess still with a high uncertainty rate.
But that poll I posted this weekend with more than 8,000 participants did made that seat estimate with the Tories losing 59 seats.
If I would be part of the UK Labour organisation I would have already build a seat estimator with the right people... and organised my inputs, also using local members for the timeconsuming part, also using standard subjective input from well connected people and ofc the local MP... and keep the conclusions and bandwidths of accuracy highly confident. Such hybrid systems of combining incomplete objective info and complete subjective info are used in many operational fields today.
And I would have included a FC engine for demographic changes (especially % younger people).
And why would it not be there already ?
"Those MPs should know their constituency, their constituents"
We are humans, and our intuition, our gut feeling, has both power and limitations. Especially our intuition is bad in handling more number data, more "objects", "events", than our working memory can handle in one batch, in one load. And our intuition cannot "add up" correctly, besides the (as such usefull) habit to do that more logaritmic.
If for example a Labour MP sees that his constituency has many Leavers from the referendum results. What does that say ? Perhaps he thinks that he has to be carefull to utter words of Remaining. But what if especially in his constituency, his Labour voters were very much Remain, and it was among the Tory voters, that there was a much higher percentage of Leavers than average in the country ?
But every time they are pondering to U-turn to openly commit themselves to Remain, they see that picture, that map of the UK, with their constituency having relative high Leave percentage. And his local Leave party members saw that same map, and feel encouraged to be more pressing on their MP. And the local meetings, Facebook, Twitter reflect that intuition based "reality", amplifiying it, entrenching it.
And all that guesswork is simply deleted when you have the percentages of Remain and Leave of the people that voted in the 2017 election, voted on you and your competitor, and of the people that did not vote.
Another example:
Say you are my neighbor, and you have some shares in a long term very stable Big Corporate for your retirement, and do not look often to the actual price.
And I have have shares as a hobby and look all the time at developments. So I tell you every time we see each other the latest change in price.
Say I told during gardening barbecue season every day for 1 month the changes. And I askedyoy after a month how you feel about your shares.
And you answer: "well, you told about as many times that my shares were rising with 3% as that they were decreasing with 3%... so what ?
And I say to you:
"yes, over those 30 days they did in total increase indeed 15 times, and did indeed decrease 15 times. It started with 5 time an increase, and then 2 times a decrease and.... and..."
Now... without calculating... you have 3 seconds... what is your gut feeling now
@Takhisis ? Is the share price after that month higher or lower or the same ?
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