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Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

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  1. Senethro

    Senethro Overlord

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    We should change to PR in Westminster right now. When FPTP is not screwing things up, people say "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". When it is screwing things up they say "WE NEED TO FOCUS ON THE IMPORTANT ISSUES, NOT POINTLESS REFORM!".

    There is thus never a good time to reform, so we should do it now.
     
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  2. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    you have my vote :)

    But it won't be a painless transformation.
     
  3. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    I'm aware of that, but even suggesting that another referendum could be rushed out without consultation or campaigning would make it worthless before it was even ready to be voted upon.

    And this is why insisting on everything being Remain or Leave is a fool's errand. If just which MPs were Remain or not carried the day, we wouldn't still be in this mess more than three years later.
     
  4. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    If a compromise was attempted right after the referendum, and with that consensus Art 50 was triggered, and if....
    But that did not happen despite the Remainers being hardly vocal !!!
    The civilised Remainers...

    It is only since the negotiations with the EU came to a standstill in March last year, 1.5 year after the referendum, that the Remainers gained confidence for that confirmatory referendum And that creates now together with the no-deal Brexiteers a complete deadlock.
    It was in the first long period mainly a battle within the Tories between the hard no-deal WTO faction and May.

    And as of now:
    The Tory party is imploding under our eyes. According to two polls that have similar low PR values for the Tories, it is happening now.
    With the bigger poll, 8,651 people, even assessing that the Tories lose 59 seats, Labour wins 34, LibDems win 14, SNP wins 11. That means that Corbyn would have 296 seats against the Tories 259, of the 650 in total.
    Explains why there is so much pressure in the Tory party to ditch May now and replace her by a Brexiteer.
    They have the choice between many Tory MPs leaving to Farrage, or rescue "their" Tory party, risking to lose people like Ken Clarke etc leaving the party.
    If they succeed in taking over the party, they have all the voters lost to UKIP and Farrage (the Brexit party) back in "their" Tory party. And Boris Johnson will do some rhetorics that it is ofc still the one-nation party, only incl Brexit.

    I know... this is the hype and the turmoil of the moment.. but all the coverage this gets in the tabloids does indicate in what panick the Tory party is. And will certainly not help getting Corbyn of the fence with more clever moves (May, Hammond).
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2019
  5. uppi

    uppi Warlord

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    I don't see what Corbyn would gain from a quick agreement to anything May proposes. All incentives I can see point in the direction of drawing this out beyond the European elections.

    With the UK participating, S&D have a much better shot at becoming the biggest faction in the European parliament, since the Tories have made themselves irrelevant and don't count. Now, it would be a mess if S&D became the biggest faction only with the help of Labour, but the commission emerging from that mess would probably be more left-leaning than if it doesn't happen.
     
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  6. Takhisis

    Takhisis excuse me

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    up yours!
    Moar news:

    ‘Utter disaster’: May told to quit next month as Tory horror grows at prospect of fighting EU elections


    Former party leader Iain Duncan Smith says PM should go and some in grassroots are refusing to campaign​

    You see, there already is a consensus in Westminster. The way Parliament is structured is to keep those in power in power (I sound a bit like Xykon, don't I, Arakhor?). See the example of the landlords voting on regulating their own profits down.

    In other countries a minister or judge can be forced to divest, i.e. to sell their assets outright, it there is a conflict of interest. In the UK it's all nebulous and indistinct because of ‘personal freedoms’ and a lot of ‘traditions’ which, in effect, mean that those members of the House of Commons who see themselves as untitled lords of the land get to behave more like lords than the actual Lords (with an L) do.
     
  7. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I think the most forward way would be to have a general election. There is also the second ref, but that is problematic because you had a referendum on this only 2 years ago, so what exactly would the second mean unless it also produces a leave result?
    Can't keep having refs.

    I think that Uk is led to worse constitutional crisis, with the likely result being some kind of Norway deal or something similar.
     
  8. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    For certain the good news for a new election is that Boris Johnson could face defeat in his own district and lose his MP seat, not only from the implosion, but also because of the demographical change (younger voters). Just a boost of canvassing needed to get their turnout up.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/E14001007

    Sure... power clings to their power and privileges.... let's see how the imploding of the Tory party develops.... the main bastion of those "traditions".
    If you have a true PR system, those untitled land-lords, that want to stay in power, can exercise that by internal party rivalry who will be nr 1-650 on the party election list, and are deprived of their "land"
    I guess another obstacle to see it happening in the UK: "I want to vote on my own MP" "I want to control my own MP"

    Had not realised that effect on the EU Parliament :)
    Yes... no reason to bother about the possible mess.

    The S&D have still some distance to cover, 18 seat gap, to overtake the EPP. But the EPP is more under pressure of the populist right.

    Schermopname (2782).png
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2019
  9. Takhisis

    Takhisis excuse me

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    up yours!
    It would be good if the UK had any constitution to have a crisis over at all, rather than have a lack-of-constitution crisis.
    We should remember that the Tory party got more votes in the last election than it did in the one before that. It lost seats in the House of Commons, so now theirs is a minority government, but that is because of the electoral alchemy that is FPTP.
     
  10. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    Can't keep having general elections either. At least a referendum would settle this one issue. A general election would probably result in another minority government and no majority for any course of action over Brexit.
     
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  11. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Yes
    A PR poll does not tell how the seats end up.


    There was a while back a poll on 25,000 people of which an article said they had used that big number to develop a system to estimate seats as function of the PR. I guess still with a high uncertainty rate.
    But that poll I posted this weekend with more than 8,000 participants did made that seat estimate with the Tories losing 59 seats.
    If I would be part of the UK Labour organisation I would have already build a seat estimator with the right people... and organised my inputs, also using local members for the timeconsuming part, also using standard subjective input from well connected people and ofc the local MP... and keep the conclusions and bandwidths of accuracy highly confident. Such hybrid systems of combining incomplete objective info and complete subjective info are used in many operational fields today.
    And I would have included a FC engine for demographic changes (especially % younger people).
    And why would it not be there already ?

    "Those MPs should know their constituency, their constituents"
    We are humans, and our intuition, our gut feeling, has both power and limitations. Especially our intuition is bad in handling more number data, more "objects", "events", than our working memory can handle in one batch, in one load. And our intuition cannot "add up" correctly, besides the (as such usefull) habit to do that more logaritmic.

    If for example a Labour MP sees that his constituency has many Leavers from the referendum results. What does that say ? Perhaps he thinks that he has to be carefull to utter words of Remaining. But what if especially in his constituency, his Labour voters were very much Remain, and it was among the Tory voters, that there was a much higher percentage of Leavers than average in the country ?
    But every time they are pondering to U-turn to openly commit themselves to Remain, they see that picture, that map of the UK, with their constituency having relative high Leave percentage. And his local Leave party members saw that same map, and feel encouraged to be more pressing on their MP. And the local meetings, Facebook, Twitter reflect that intuition based "reality", amplifiying it, entrenching it.
    And all that guesswork is simply deleted when you have the percentages of Remain and Leave of the people that voted in the 2017 election, voted on you and your competitor, and of the people that did not vote.

    Another example:
    Say you are my neighbor, and you have some shares in a long term very stable Big Corporate for your retirement, and do not look often to the actual price.
    And I have have shares as a hobby and look all the time at developments. So I tell you every time we see each other the latest change in price.
    Say I told during gardening barbecue season every day for 1 month the changes. And I askedyoy after a month how you feel about your shares.
    And you answer: "well, you told about as many times that my shares were rising with 3% as that they were decreasing with 3%... so what ?
    And I say to you: "yes, over those 30 days they did in total increase indeed 15 times, and did indeed decrease 15 times. It started with 5 time an increase, and then 2 times a decrease and.... and..."

    Now... without calculating... you have 3 seconds... what is your gut feeling now @Takhisis ? Is the share price after that month higher or lower or the same ?
    Spoiler :
    Always lower... it does also not matter in what order the decreases and increases were.. it is in fact 1.3% lower in this example. After a year 15% lower.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2019
  12. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    ^If only there was an actual vote just on Leave or Remain, right? :p
     
  13. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    My cynical version as answer ?
    For too many MPs this whole Remain-Leave issue is an disturbing inconvenience... they are interested in getting elected again in the next elections, starting with the next election.
    And for too many ambituous MPs it is just an opportunity for their career.
     
  14. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    We have already on the menu:
    * the Tory infighting for a new PM on the short term (the Tory 1922 committee seeking a way to change their rules)
    * the local elections on May 2
    * the EU elections on May 23-26 as cliff edge ingredient (for the Tories)

    That's for sure enough to get a better assessment for what next

    I do wonder BTW what happens if those EU elections do not take place in the UK ?
    If nothing else happens in time like that Corbyn-May talks leading to a possible compromise, or a Revoking of Art 50 (emergency brake)... I understand the UK is out per June 1 in a no-deal fashion.

    That means that the no-deal Tory faction could aim to obstruct holding those EU elections.
    AFAIK May only made the necessary steps to be able to hold them, but I cannot remember a motion being passed in Parliament, that the government is forced to hold them (if there is not a May deal or a May-Corbyn deal in time).

    If that is so...
    the no-deal Brexiteers only need to get their PM in power (with that 1922 action) and simply do not hold EU elections.
    and the soft-Brexiteers and Remainers need to eliminate that possibility with a motion in Parliament.

    Am I wrong here ?


    Back to your question Kyr... I guess the situation will for everybody be more clear after May 23 and June 1
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2019
  15. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    Speak for yourself, I know who my local FPTP representative is: Clive Lewis for Norwich South

    The UK's FPTP is fine for electing a local representative. Although it is arguable that STV is better.

    The current problem of FPTP is that central party structures control the nomination process, de facto preventing local democracy.

    What FPTP it is not good at is representing opinions that are widely dispersed throughout the country.
     
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  16. Yeekim

    Yeekim Chieftain

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  17. Sofista

    Sofista card-carrying

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    I never heard this version before! Thank you!
     
  18. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    In a multiparty PR system it is easy to discouple local democracy from the final top layer of Parliament.
    Most of the elections I vote on different parties between local and national elections (we have a dozen parties and I swap between 2 sometimes 3).
    Why force the total party and election structure into one system for both needs ?

    I don't believe that it is so valuable that your local representative sits on the big table of Parliament.
    And it stiffles and surpresses opinons of the voters, that do not flow easily to the future direction of the party.

    If your central party structure (with all the member meetings) allows a list that is much bigger than the likely number of seats to win, you offer the voter the choice who is going to sit on those seats !
    If I want to vote for party C, I have still the choice between the Nr1 on the list, or the highest woman on the list, or someone younger than the stiffled elite, or an eurosceptic in an europhile party (!!!), or someone from my province /city, or someone in an Climate sceptic party that is absolutely pushing renewables, etc, et.
    I do not need to be a member of the political party and engage in time consuming struggles... I can make my own choices in my own time in what direction my party should go. Much more democratic imo.
    That nomination process is no longer owned by the party tigers, but a hybrid. In those nomination meetings it does count who got last election many "preferential" votes.
    And if someone with many preferential votes, does not get the weight in the party for the direction, he can set up his own party without tresholds. Enough of a threat to have party bosses want to prevent that and adapt their doctrines.

    Much more practical choice than voting all the time on that same, meanwhile ageing MP, that loses connection with the mood. Whether that is climate or eurosceptic, or whatever. I have more choices.
    yeah :)
    It is their break through hit in the US. They picked it because it was already a popular song in the US.
    They were still experimenting with their style including how much testosteron there should be in their music (especially in the US at that time :sad: )
    I like in this version the guitar riff at the start and the, for me, more dreamlike effect.
    Note how they end "time is on my side".. with "side" going up in pitch... more uncertain-question like. Later they keep it flat or go down in pitch, and leave it almost away. More dominant macho.

    ok
    That no-deal scenario for June 1 is then eliminated.
    thanks :)
     
  19. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    yes
    I guess we are then back in the "nothing really happens" waiting game... the stew brewing :)
     
  20. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    That seems the most likely outcome.

    The question is what will the majority Remainer UK Parliament strategy be:

    (a) Revoke the invocation of Article 50
    (b) Organise another UK referendum
    (c) Seek further delay until confident of getting away with (a) or winning (b).
     
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