Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.
It's only a guess, I have no crystal balls lying around
The other argument is of course that the Brexit mess depresses the leave vote while the 48% + people who reached 18 years of age + pro-europeans who simply missed the referendum will sway it to the other side. The problem here of course is that while right voters can vote for Lib Dem here, left voters only have Labour that does not count as a protest vote. So I'm not sure how you can really assess a protest vote / "second référendum" in a parliamentary election, right?
(that little uptick in your posted poll only shows that people hadn't heard of the Brexit party before. Maybe they can invigorate leave voters, maybe it's just a fluke. Whether Intention to vote changed in-between those polls, that would be interesting!
With Oct 31 still a long way to go...
The only stake that matters now is the stake through the Tories.
The latest EU election poll shows that the Tories get 9% of the votes. If that is corrected for the overall % "don't know", "would not vote" and "refused" (totalling 38%), this becomes 15% of the votes.
Of the Tory voters of the 2017 election, 23% stick to their party, 39% goes to UKIP/Brexit Party, 33% to "don't know" and "would not vote", and the remainder to all other parties.
Yes, no real left alternative.
But looking at this poll, for many Labour voters avoiding Brexit is more important (for a not-national election) than the traditional left-right.
For that EU election
Approx 30% of the Labour voters of the 2017 snap election are polled now as "don't know" (19%) or "would not vote" (11%).
Approx 35% stick to Labor.
Approx 21% go to Greens, LibDems, Change UK-Independent Group, other
Approx 10% go to UKIP/Brexit Party.
And all these figures with the caveat that many people (38%) have not made up their mind yet, or do not want to do that, or vote at all.
There are also local elections here in the UK (for some but not all council seats),
that will in part almost certainly also serve as a de facto opinion poll on what the
public actually think of the UK government on various non European related issues.
I suspect that this will mean that those who take part in them, will having supported
their traditional party there and/or having voted against the government, be much more
inclned to regard the EU MEP election as the best substitute for a Leave/Remain poll.
As for the EU election, I note that most UKIP MEPs have already defected to the Brexit party.
However evaluating the outcome of the EU election is really not as simple as just totalling.
I think that a vote for UKIP or the Brexit party may be correctly regarded as a Leave now vote,
but votes for other parties such as the Conservatives, Green, Labour or SNP party ought not
to be be interpreted as necessarily the opposite; i.e. as being syomymous with Remain.
The majority of such votes will be for Remain, but some will be for other reasons.
"Bye elections" is an interesting way of putting it
On the other hand if you don't vote for UKIP or the Brexit Party a hard Brexit is obviously not important to you.
Leavng the UK may be important to some people but not of such overwhelming importance
that they would abandon their party and cast their vote.for UKIP or the Brexit Party.
For example some Scots may decide they are Scots Nationalist first and Vote Leave second.
Other Leave inclined voters may decide that global warming is the issue of overriding importance
to them today and therefore vote Green, irrespective of their sceptism of the European Union.
Conversely there may be people who love the EU, but hate the Muslims, more who'd vote UKIP.
I'm really not a supporter of the idea of using general elections or local elections as a proxy for another referendum. Less of a problem with the MEP elections being used that way though, for obvious reasons.
There is a name for such people. Baltics ^_^
The good news of the Brexit delay is that UK people can enjoy without troubles their sunny holidays in Europe this year with the Pound at a respectable rate
Indeed. I'm visiting Germany in early October. Short of May actually succeeding in something for once we'll still be in the EU then.
River cruise down the Rhine with my mother. It'll be wild
Could be worse. She took my sister to see tulips last year.
When, during the repeated dramas of deadlines approaching, has the pound fallen to a dis-respectable rate?
You see, this is the issue with the remain campaign: it was project fear. It was about the danger of leaving", more than the advantages of remaining. But the promises of catastrophe kept failing to materialize.
This is why I think that the european elections in the UK serving as a proxy for leave voters will turn out a very high result for people openly calling for leave. With a new "brexit party" the possibility of a boycott of abstention is out of the picture. As the date for those elections approaches they will become about leave versus remain. You have UKIP and brexit parties on one side, the LD and Greens on the other. And they conservatives and Labout doing their worst for not taking a stand, and being crushed between. Though this won't translate to similar results in national elections.
I'm rather curious about what the result in Scotland for the SNP will be. I suspect it will be disappointing.
Would you be so kind to quote a post of me where I said that the Pound to USD rate was plunging down during a drama deadline ?
You won't find any !
And neither big Pound rate changes around those March 29 and April 12 deadlines.
There is a clear gap between the trara in the newsmedia and how the Pound reacts. The newsmedia have a high infotainment level.
But that $1.30 is a respectable rate compared to what would have happened in case of a cliff edge no-deal, or a short extension with the expectation that the EU would not extend any further.
Usually currencies fall compared to other currencies when the crisis only exists on one side. No deal brexit obviously is going to cause added mayhem in the eu, else they wouldn't so desperately try to beg the uk to not leave as it is, hoping for a number of scenarios. Remember the line that the eu is some superpower; apparently now superpowers are prone to beg a country of 80 million people.
My mistake... Uk only has 66 million people....
You see, even i did not readily want to imagine the "superpower" we have here begging such a smallish country.
Also, please use your official name, which now is Fyronm (with your own glorious population of 2 million, over 1/3 of which are albanians) ^_^
Keeping your avoidable damage low is many miles away from begging !
The Euro is much more volatile from Eurozone risk considerations, from Italy the last year, than from Brexit. Even the Trump trade war uncertainties on the global economy and the EU have a bigger effect than Brexit on the Euro.
As I posted before: the UK threatening with no-deal to the EU to fold for the Irish border, threatening the EU to fold for giving the UK access to the EU Single Market in an unprecented way compared to FTA partners like Canada, Japan, etc has no effect at all on the position of the EU.
The Irish border is a principle (just like Nanci Pelogi of the US Democrats repeated regarding an UK-US FTA).
The integrity of the EU Single Market, protect it against unfair competition, has for the EU a far bigger economical value than that cumulative 1-2% los of GDP from lesser growth up to 2030. Unfair competition as from that Chequers document of May (an economical masterpiece in fact !) would cause to the EU more damage than a no-deal cliff edge.
There are however two points that will always remain for the EU:
* when it becomes a no-deal, than it must be the UK themselves pulling the trigger. (from that argument I would even have given the UK a much longer flextension, and ignore the UK completely until they have made up their mind)
* a no-deal will cause the loss of jobs in the EU. Not evenly spread over the EU whereby the growing economies at high employment can absorb that easily, but unevenly over countries, cities, economical sectors. And ofc you do want to avoid that.
well.. perhaps it is begging... but then of the kind that you "beg" somebody intending to jump of the roof of a high building not to do it.
when by jumping he would fall on you, perhaps
Job losses indeed are not evenly distributed. Lost jobs by a brexit will mostly affect a few countries. Guess where those are (at least they got the institutions that used to be in the Uk, probably to help with their economy and greed ).
Separate names with a comma.