1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

Tags:
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2017
    Messages:
    4,839
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Amsterdam
    ???

    Could you add rough dates to these statements ?

    Do you talk of the past months, the past year or longer back ?
     
  2. uppi

    uppi Warlord

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2007
    Messages:
    4,331
    An anecdote is not a refutation. Yes, there are local issues which will very much influence the election result, but local issues are - well - local. If you have a massive countrywide correlation, this has to be caused by non-local issues. The massive shift from Tories to LibDems is definitely correlated with Brexit and Remain opinions. You can argue about the size but not the existence of the effect.
     
    Silurian likes this.
  3. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2017
    Messages:
    4,839
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Amsterdam
    yes
    local elections
    * local issues and performances
    * the growth of independents could partially also be a general development (away from the restricted choices of the standard menu of parties)
    * the austerity "outsourcing" of the national government to the councils (less money, housing issues, etc, etc)
    * the usual fatigue of the Tories having won many seats in the last local elections, the usual fatigue of now so long a national Tory government.
    We need an analysis with numbers, a nice graph showing us the movements of voters between parties, and between new voters, abstained, etc.


    The only thing certain now is that the loss of the Tories is much higher with 1300 seats than the "expected" 800 seats.... and that the loss of Labour of 82 seats is not the "expected" gain of 400 seats. Both 500 seats wrong.

    Shadow chancellor John McDonnell predicted the party could gain around 400 seats, just hours before the local election results in an interview with @LBC:
    the vid of that interview in this article:
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...arty-results-latest-Jeremy-Corbyn-Theresa-May

    Whatever the real reasons of this electoral debacle... both May as Corbyn made clear statements that they want to get a Brexit deal done.
    May:

    Corbyn:
    If that is genuine... they better hurry up !
    I think the real compromise between May and Corbyn is only possible if they both feel they have split the electoral damage between their parties from deciding for a deal that will upset "equally" big factions of their party and voter base.
    With the current level of Labour damage relative to the Tory damage still low, May can in the short term only inflict substantial more damage to Labour by excluding a confirmatory referendum from the deal with Corbyn.

    Will be interesting to see how they dance together towards May 23-26.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2019
  4. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    3,300
    Location:
    South Wales
    It isn't nationwide though. It was 248 out of 343 English councils and all 11 of NI councils. It was also predicted to be low turnout and if hard Brexiteers didn't want to vote for UKIP (which I'd hope given how far right UKIP has gone) they didn't really have a choice that reflected their views. Its encouraging for Remainers but the European Parliament elections will give a better indicator since they cover the whole country and local issues won't affect the result at all.
     
  5. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    53,662
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    There won't be a confirmatory referendum. Besides, isn't that rather overkill? How would the eu liars and other goons sell that as another eu non-bending backwards?
    Obviously only eu people who want UK to stay regardless would want that, and that crowd isn't a majority in the actual eu voting base (assuming they care, and to the degree they care).
     
  6. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    3,300
    Location:
    South Wales
    I think a referendum will be the last resort if no agreement can be settled. May and Corbyn obviously don't want a referendum but I don't think they can make a deal that will satisfy both Labour and the Tories and parliament can't seem to agree on what they want but eventually putting it back to the people with No Deal, May's Deal and Remain as the choices may be seen as the only way to move on.
     
    Hrothbern and Kyriakos like this.
  7. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    53,662
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Given that May's deal alone could pass with a few more votes, i think they have the numbers to pass it. Of course it may trigger another blairite revolt, but at this point i think that would be preferable cause they already rose twice and were put down twice.
    Of course it may cost Corbyn the pmship. But i am no longer optimistic he will become pm anyway, despite wanting it to happen. In the end they wouldn't let him.
     
  8. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    3,300
    Location:
    South Wales
    If May makes concessions over a Customs Union etc to Corbyn theres a risk she'll lose even more Tory votes and no guarantee Corbyn can deliver enough Labour votes. I doubt there will be a deal.
     
    Hrothbern and Kyriakos like this.
  9. Cheetah

    Cheetah Chieftain

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2002
    Messages:
    7,714
    Location:
    Norway
    Funny you should say that, cause it looks like the local elections lit a fire under both the Conservatives and Labour:

    https://news.yahoo.com/uks-may-optimistic-brexit-deal-labour-near-buzzfeed-083956009.html

     
  10. Takhisis

    Takhisis excuse me

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    43,054
    Location:
    up yours!
    This would be a sign that there is a moderately savvy politician in town. The government had better unilaterally foist independence upon the Scots before they dare bring sense into the situation.
     
    Silurian likes this.
  11. Lillefix

    Lillefix I'm serious. You can.

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2003
    Messages:
    5,655
  12. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2017
    Messages:
    4,839
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Amsterdam
    You mean that May and Corbyn make a deal, clarify what the deal is (in a written document), put it forward as motion to the Parliament, and are together defeated in Parliament ?
     
  13. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    53,662
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    I don't think Corbyn can become pm, at this point. I also doubt he would want to be token pm with the cost of supporting libdem's (who aren't a party but a joke).
    It is all a sad state of affairs, and by now a Corbyn pmship has already been ruined.
    What irks me the most is that one-issue loser parties (libdems, blairites, and yes also brexit/ukip but at least those were built on that one issue from the start) stick around due to the fantasy you will have a second referendum and/or negate brexit.
     
  14. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    53,662
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    I am not surprised. And that was all caused by the brexit negation hope.
    I think it sucks, cause Corbyn might have been a good pm.
     
  15. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2006
    Messages:
    10,825
    The EP elections will already be a referendum of sorts. The problem is that the two parties which are "respect the referendum result but we don't agree how to..." will have the balance of the result, making it unclear.

    Still, every vote for the brexit or ukip parties are clearly a "leave already and to hell with deals" vote. And it is looking like it'll be a very large contingent. This alone puts pressure on any "deal" to be made before that election (and making sure it doesn't happen). After it won't be possible.

    As the EU still hasn't moved, it's "May's deal or no deal" on the table. And I don't think may's deal can pass, whatever the amount of lipstick.
     
    Kyriakos likes this.
  16. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    53,662
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Well, yes, tbh i am surprised how any analyst would bother with ukip's local election result. Ukip have been dead since the last General election. There is even a new ukipy party (Brexit) around. Obviously they would collapse even more (which tbh is meaningless when you already are next to zero) :)
     
  17. Traitorfish

    Traitorfish The Tighnahulish Kid

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2005
    Messages:
    31,595
    Location:
    Scotland
    I think that the main thing we can infer from polling is that the British electorate continue to take European elections very seriously.

    It's kind of perverse, really. We complain that EU institutions are not representative, and when given the opportunity to be represented, most of us either don't vote or vote for joke parties.
     
  18. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    53,662
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Some euro countries have single-digit turnout for euro elections. :)
    (i think Slovenia had 7%. Or was it 17%? not that the latter would be that less laughable).

    edit: i meant Slovakia. Can't be bothered with the sloveas.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2019
  19. uppi

    uppi Warlord

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2007
    Messages:
    4,331
    If there ever was the time for a single issue party, it is now. Brexit is by far the most important issue for the UK right now that will shape the future of the UK for decades. The major parties are refusing to state a clear position, so if you have a strong opinion on it, who are you supposed to vote for?
     
    Silurian and Kyriakos like this.
  20. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2017
    Messages:
    4,839
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Amsterdam
    For 2014:
    Slovenia was 25%
    It was Slovakia that had that low 17%
     
    Kyriakos likes this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page