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Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

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  1. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Over 60% is arbitrary. The Uk doesn't even have a constitution; they won't force any rules of increased majority that exist in other countries for constitutional change. Besides, this wouldn't be a constitutional change even if they had one (though practically it would count as one due to the need to change so many laws).
     
  2. Senethro

    Senethro Overlord

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    I'm almost wondering if the Tories shouldn't call a general election for their own sake. If they leave it to the wrong moment they might face something near a catastrophe. There are worse things than being Her Majesty's Opposition.
     
  3. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    This isn't at all likely. It will be on the libdem and other such joke parties' manifesto, cause they are the other side of brexit/ukip; one issue parties that exist by now only because of this (though ukip also was born just because of this).
     
  4. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    That 60% is not from some UK formal rule or tradition.
    But taking as a group a big semi-irreversible decision affecting all the people of your group.... would you do that with 50% + 1 vote in your daily life (in the board of the local football club, or town council, etc) ?
    I think you only do that if you are really forced to decide almost immediately because of really pressing circumstances.

    The UK is still inside the EU, has not really encountered the negatives or positives of leaving... it is all pure theory so far (theological sovereignity arguments versus economical benefit arguments)
    If the decision turns sour, would it not be better if the population would have a better majority than 50% + 1 vote ?
     
  5. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Come on, recall all the catastrophic claims about Uk ruined the moment it would choose to vote to leave in the referendum? Remember the posts about the pound? Also in these threads. I am sure you realize fully that this is about sentiment and not logic. Anyway, i am just sick of the circus and hope it will finally end, one way or another. Yet to expect - as you do, which does impress me - that it will be a 'remain', is in my view not realistic at all.
    If May wasn't the pm, it would have been hard brexit already. As would have been if a couple of other things didn't happen - infamously that ECJ decision, but let's not beat on that dead horse; enough others around.
     
  6. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    The last time I gave in a post here (March ?) a % on the main scenarios it was 10% no-deal by accident and Remain as outsider (with 10%-20% in my head): most of my eggs on some kind of deal.

    That you are sick from it, I can imagine. I find this affair sickening as well, although for me that comes mostly from all the misleading news and positions.
    And the UK people need time to get the situation clear, and are not helped much in that by their politicians and newsmedia: the rivalry of individuals, factions, foreign interests, etc.

    A fast WTO-exit without transition period would be devastating for the Tories. They get the full hit of the chaos and economical dip and uncertainty in the coming 2-3 years.

    I think that one of May's original optimal scenarios was to bridge the period until the elections with the transition period ending 1-3 months or so after the elections. With full Tory control on many signed global FTA's structuring UK economics.
    And then take the economical hit in the first 2-3 years og governing (also lesser from that deal, from more transition time for companies to adapt in advance) and have the last 2-3 years of the government period to show every year better figures coming out of the dip.

    Whether Labour would put Rejoin on its manifesto after a WTO exit in the coming months ?
    I think they can decide based on the situation as it develops until 2022, and how that reflects in polls.
    They can decide to put Brentry or a referendum with a Brentry recommendation on their manifesto.
    The Tories will be screwed then.
     
  7. Lillefix

    Lillefix I'm serious. You can.

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    So Cameron. Was it worth it?
     
  8. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Corbyn sacked, yes, that will be the first time he will face a vote to be ousted. I am sure this time he will just resign or it will be different :jesus: . Anyway, isn't this entire discussion pointless? I just wonder for how much longer this pitiful show will continue.
     
  9. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    In that most of us can't directly affect what happens yes. Isn't that true of many of the discussions here?
    If Corbyn makes a deal with May that doesn't include a 2nd referendum Starmer estimates 100-150 Labour MPs won't vote for it. Given that many Tories won't vote for any deal May makes with Corbyn especially if it includes a Customs Union no deal they make is likely to get through the Commons.
    A 2nd referendum is the only way to resolve the issue (at least in the short term). Whatever the result the country will remain deeply divided.
     
  10. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    One day the conspiracy theory will emerge that it was all planned by Cameron.

    IDK that is true, but already in 2013 it was "red alert" on the Cameron intentions with the UK and the EU.

    Here an article of the NYT of March 2013 outlining an UK using the Euro-crisis to negotiate a better position:
    And the Bilderberg conference of June 2013 invited an army of UK politicians (not usual), to have them around in the biggest global fair of exchanging confidential info between influential people: "what the heck are you guys going to do ?"
    https://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/participants2013.html
     
  11. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    I raise with 10 years of Labour government from 2022 onward.

    EDIT
    the latest poll on the EU election came just in:
    Schermopname (2907).png

    This means that the Remain-Leave ratio of the Labour 2017 vote: 71% Remain + 29% Leave, is now after 60% of the Labour voters (mostly Remainers) going to other parties: 58% Remain + 42% Leave.

    If Labour would have gone "all out" Remain instead of sitting on the fence (with both legs on the Leave side), the total losses would never have been bigger than 29%... now it is 60%.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2019
  12. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Fyronm won't even exist by 2024, what are you talking about ^_^
     
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  13. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Trying to outperform Ukraine ?
     
  14. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    The nicety of PR voting is that a party has less factions. In fact if you have a handfull of parties, it is more about accents of importance.
    In such a situation, if your culture is not overly polarised, you get mostly in time 2-3 potential crown princes per generation and mostly one of them gets the fast track in the last years before a leader resigns from that role.

    How that all goes in a FPTP big two party system, with many factions per party... IDK.
    Can you parachute someone in just like that in UK politics ?
    We have in Dutch politics several examples were that parachuting in worked fine. But they came mostly from civil society and had solid track records regarding social skills in complex situations and bridge builders.
    Our best example of that type was a submarine captain in the 60ies. And he had fine social and leader skills indeed. He always stayed calm, respected everyone, got well-informed, etc. No caricature military officer at all.
    He also introduced the Friday late afternoon weekly press meeting as Prime Minister. Just to inform first hand the decisions of the week in a more reflective way with a bit of an outlook on the next week. Very simple. And the reason he introduced it ? He wanted to eat his meal cooked by his wife at normal dinner time at home, and not be disturbed all the time by journalists. He did his briefing to everybody and that was it. No favorites either.

    But I can imagine very well choosing someone of the younger generation for Labour.
    But in how many networks do you need to be in a Tory or Labour party to get you party policies through the snake pits of internal party processes ? Where is your base, your protection, your power ?
    If that is outside the party, it can only be "the people" (in that already "overloaded" channel so vulnerable from Rupert Murdoch tabloids), or the intrinsic content and character of the person self, that has to radiate as well.
    I saw during the many hours of debate I followed not that many MPs that sparked something in me. But yeah.. I am ofc not an UKian.

    The stupid thing in my eyes is that Labour, doing so complicated, needs currently only a caretaker.
    If you look at the demographics and similar in polls, still very positive for Labour, despite everything, it is mostly about no infightings and not repelling potential young voters below 18 years old, and you get an easy majority for 2 elections.
    That's why I also do not understand the risk appetite of Corbyn. By coincidence he got in position in the lucky moment (except the complication of Brexit) and he behaves as if he is still trying to conquer the Labour party with all kinds of tactics that are only repelling younger voters.

    But first Labour needs to make up its mind what direction to take.

    Perhaps Corbyn should be interim for the first term only and not try to reign out of his grave by trying to determine "his" successor. Though I doubt he is able to take that distance for the good of the party.
     
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  15. Takhisis

    Takhisis excuse me

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    up yours!
    You do know that emigration to the UK is easier if both the UK and Greece are in the EU, don't you?

    And if you're bored then stop posting. ;)
    It was, but ridiculously incompetently.
     
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  16. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    It is what i meant, Takhi: despite it being vastly easier to do it if the Uk is in the eu, i still am too disgusted with it by now to care.
    I think that if i stop posting i will die.
     
  17. Takhisis

    Takhisis excuse me

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    up yours!
    All right, stop posting here, we can always have an ALL THINGS GREECE thread.
     
  18. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    If i stop posting here, i die here. :/
     
  19. Takhisis

    Takhisis excuse me

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    up yours!
    ‘Agito, ergo sum’ then?
     
  20. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Ok, i got the message. What you are saying is that i should post more to the point. I did have in mind to flesh out why i think hard brexit is preferable at the moment.

    Anyway, i do have to finish a short story so better to leave this to the host of non-biased posters :)
     
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